Soxtalk Top Ten Prospect List

[maggsmaggs]

Yeah, its early, but I am bored, so I am starting the thread. BA will release the Sox top prospect list January 14th. Not sure how Carter being traded will affect the list. But here goes my list:

 

1. Fautino De Los Santos

-Top prospect because he has got the highest ceiling. Potential (potential being the operative word) ace or closer.

 

2. Gio Gonzalez

-Should make a strong run at a rotation spot this spring and likely will begin in AAA, but will definately be up in the majors at some point. Two plus pitchers (change and curve rated top in SL,) and a deceptively fast fastball.

 

3. Ryan Sweeney

-Still young and the power has to develope sometime (right?) Still think he will be an above average RF in time.

 

4. Aaron Poreda

-Any lefty throwing upper 90's is a high prospect and his numbers this year justified the hype. If he developes secondary pitches, could be very good.

 

5. Jack Egbert

-Some guys just know how to pitch and he does. Even without plus stuff, he does not give up HRs, walk batters and give up many hits. Hopefully, he is the White Sox's Brad Radke.

 

6. John Shelby

-Solid numbers and impact bat as a CF or 2b-those guys are rare.

 

7. Lance Broadway

-Solid stats, but knows how to pitch and looked very good with the Sox. Everything he throws moves.

 

8. Alexei Ramirez

-Technically a prospect. Hopefully, his impact bat in Cuba translates to the States. Versatility is a plus.

 

9. Jose Martinez

-Very young and a good season in rookie ball. 6-5 and when he adds weight to his frame, could be a monster.

 

10. Juan Silverio

-Phil Rogers called him a "man-child." But, we know Rogers has hyped up some other Sox foreign signees in the past (Anderson Gomes,) but he seems like he has the potential to amazing. But, since all my info comes from Rogers, I have no idea. Unforunately, there aren't many other choices.

 

Thoughts? What does your top ten look like?

Edited December 24, 2007 by maggsmaggs

[Marky Mark]

Your list is Gerst-less.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Your list is Gerst-less.

Yeah.... where is the lowest league repeater who OPSed below .700?

[maggsmaggs]

 

With your insight into the organization, what would your top 10 look like? Or have you not seen enough of the upper level players to judge fairly? Also, someone who works for BA that I know told me that some people (nots sure if they were in the organization or not) think Fautino might have used performance enhancers. Any truth of these suspicions?

Edited May 23, 2008 by knightni

[Ozzie Ball]

 

Would you be able to rank the players in the lower levels that you have seen?

 

Also after reading your first post I was just wondering what you thought about an organisation like the Mets who seem to love rushing their players up through the system, personally I really can't see the benefit to it, when looking at Pelfrey for example, by rushing him through he didn't have any time to develop his breaking stuff and as a result only has two pitches. Supposedly they think that their most talented guys will benefit from the challenge of skipping levels and while I can see some sense in that it just seems to be a bit of an odd philosophy.

[Heads22]

Egbert at 3, dammit.

[scenario]

I'd probably put Sergio Miranda on my top 10.

[Gene Honda Civic]

my key factors: Ceiling, likelihood of reaching that ceiling (I guess you could call that projectibility), age vs. league, ETA... and I like to find similar players in numbers, frame, position, etc; which can heavily influence my rankings --- There aren't a whole lot of comps for guys in the Sox system, but

 

1. Gio -- Maybe not the pure stuff of DLS, but higher league at essentially the same age. He's closer to contributing. Lack of good comps is a bit of a worry.

 

2. DLS -- I think he could pitch (well) in the bullpen now, but the Sox owe it to him/themselves to let him develop a 3rd pitch. Carlos Marmol, right now.

 

3. Sweeney -- stagnated until wrist injury made him look like he regressed (He didn't, but he didn't really improve either He's here because the Sox system is weak) I used to compare him to Alex Rios, but he's looking more and like Alex Romero and venturing into Sean Burroughs territory. I don't project him to hit for any power before 25, but he MUST show improvement at AAA this year or he's a bust.

 

4. Poreda -- I'll be interested to see what full-season hitters have to think about Poreda's 1-pitch repertoire. Seems like Thornton's replacement rather than a starter to me. He's ranked here because of handedness, radar readings and GB rates.

 

5. Broadway -- Control was better in the second half... It has to get even better to have a future in the bigs.... Somewhere between a Duchsherer and Josh Towers.

 

6. Egbert -- Scouts may not like him, but his numbers say he can play. You've gotta do two of three things to pitch in the bigs (keep the ball in the yard, keep the ball on the ground, and throw strikes) Egbert does all three (though I project him to have trouble with the zone in the bigs at first, perhaps killing his only shot) Clay Hensley, Shawn Hill, Kyle Kendrik, Aaron Cook type, maybe with a bit more upside with his HR suppression. Looking at those comps, maybe he should go to the NL.

 

7. Shelby -- Second most interesting hitter wouldn't crack most teams' top 10. hacktastic second-half has me concerned. Granderson as his ceiling, but I need to see more from him as he climbs the ladder.

 

8. Alexei Ramirez -- I was digging through a bunch of other cuban hitters who swam to the US. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ramirez being a .750 OPS guy next year... In Charlotte, or worse, Birmingham.

 

9. Martinez -- projectible frame, faded late. Would be much higher if he finished strong.

 

10. Francisco Hernandez -- Sox best catching prospect is sox ONLY catching prospect since Olivo.

 

11. Charlie Haeger -- Still has rookie eligibility, I think. He's only got 1 option year remaining though. I think he'll be an volitile league average innings eater in a few years, but he's only got 1 year plus one spring training to make the Sox.

 

12. Chris Getz -- I always find a way to keep Getz out of the top 10. He was injured as a league repeater, but performed well. Future as a utility man.

 

13. Silveiro -- He hasn't picked up a bat, so I have no clue where to put him. The Sox gave Dony Lucy and Wes Whisler a combined $1.2M in signing bonuses, so the $600K doesn't mean anything to me until he plays some real pro ball.

 

Adam Russell -- I've always seen him as a bullpen arm.. Concerned about his velocity, but if it returns, I believe he can find a home pitching at the end of games in the bigs.

 

Nevin Griffin -- Ranked on draft position alone.

 

Sergio Miranda -- I'm still unsure about his defense. But right now, he appears to be a steal. If he can play defense, Jason Bartlett seems like his ceiling.

 

Kent Gerst -- On your recommendation only. Crisp as a ceiling seems more apt than Ellsbury, but that's still 4+ years of development off. Tons of time for setbacks/attrition/stagnation.

 

Oneli Perez -- Uninspiring fastball, arm angle and slurve should get the job done in back end of bullpen this year.

 

Kyle McCulloch -- Meh.

 

Then it's a bunch of interchangables.....

Lucas Harrell -- Injured, and needs to control the zone, but good stuff and GB rates.

Brian Omogrosso -- became more effective as a starter, but future is in the pen

Thomas Collaro -- For EasyW and that other guy!

Jon Link

Jack Cassell (how injured was he?)

Lujan

Edwards

Marrerro

Estill

basically the entire Great Falls team.

[NorthSideSox72]

For those unfamiliar... this site will put up a Future Sox Top 25 prospects list each offseason. We are hoping to put one up early next year for 2008. Its the combined efforts of various well-informed people who work with the site. Ranking is a combination of ceiling, closeness to being ready, and probable value. Its not an exact science.

 

For now, unrelated to the site's official list... here is my 25 plus a few honorable mentions that just missed the list. Keep in mind that, as with any list like this, there is a balance of ceiling and readiness. Some players are high ceiling but not experienced enough to show anything, others are future backups but are nearly ready to make the jump...

 

1. Gio Gonzalez

2. FDLS

3. John Shelby

4. Jack Egbert

5. Ryan Sweeney

6. Jose Martinez

7. Aaron Poreda

8. Sergio Miranda

9. Oneli Perez

10. Chris Getz

11. Lance Broadway

12. Carlos Vasquez

13. David Aardsma

14. John Ely

15. Kanekoa Texeira

16. Jim Gallagher

17. Po-Yu Lin

18. CJ Retherford

19. Charlie Haeger

20. David Cook

21. Jason Bourgeois

22. Donny Lucy

23. Hector Santiago

24. Kyle McCulloch

25. Archie Glbert

 

HM: Griffith, Cheatham, Gartrell, Tollefson, Mabee, Sanchez, Francisco Hernandez, Silverio, Omogrosso

 

[scenario]

Sergio Miranda -- I'm still unsure about his defense. But right now, he appears to be a steal. If he can play defense, Jason Bartlett seems like his ceiling.

 

Awards won by Sergio Miranda:

 

- 2005 (at age 18) - Colonial Athletic Conference Rookie of the Year, Colonial Athletic Conference All-Star SS (.357/.413/.469/.882)

 

- 2006 - Colonial Athletic Association Defensive Player of the Year, Colonial Athletic Association All-Star SS (.400/.457/.560/1.017)

 

- 2007 - Batted .370 in 60 games with Virginia Commonwealth (2nd on team) with a .419 OBP...committed just eight errors... and was named a 2007 Rawlings Division I Gold Glove winner. (.370/.419/.457/.876)

 

 

I believe his history as a Rawlings Division I Gold Glove winner, etc. suggests that his fielding will come around.

 

Another factor that impresses me about him is his walks/strikeouts. (37 walks vs. 27 strikeouts on the season?) Anytime a young player walks more often than they strikeout, you've gotta like that. And his history shows that it's a trend, not a one year thing.

 

And he blew through rookie league (1.159 OPS) and got promoted to A-ball within a month of leaving college... at age 20? What's not to like?

 

Here's his progression at Kanny by month...

- June - .154 BA

- July - .270 BA

- August - .286 BA

- September - 6 hits in 13 at-bats over 3 games (.462 average)

 

In his final 10 games (last 7 in August + 3 in September) Miranda batted .390.

Edited December 24, 2007 by scenario

[NorthSideSox72]

Awards won by Sergio Miranda:

 

- 2005 - Colonial Athletic Conference Rookie of the Year, Colonial Athletic Conference All-Star SS

 

- 2006 - Colonial Athletic Association Defensive Player of the Year, Colonial Athletic Association All-Star SS

 

- 2007 - Batted .370 in 60 games with Virginia Commonwealth in 2007 (2nd on team)...committed just eight errors...was named a 2007 Rawlings Division I Gold Glove winner...

I believe his history as a Rawlings Division I Gold Glove winner, etc. suggests that his fielding will come around.

 

Another factor that impresses me about him is his walks/strikeouts. (37 walks vs. 27 strikeouts on the season?) Anytime a young player walks more often than they strikeout, you've gotta like that. And his history shows that it's a trend, not a one year thing.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/S...o-Miranda.shtml

I am pretty high on Miranda. I see what GHC is getting at though, his error numbers seem high - which could be worrisome. And he got those awards in a not-exactly top tier conference. But it does show he probably at least has good potential defensively. Add that to his offensive numbers, and being only a 20-year-old in A-ball, and I have to echo his statement earlier that Miranda was "steal" in the 7th round.

 

[Cerbaho-WG]

I'll throw my hat into the fray for s***s and giggles.

 

1) De Los Santos - He really earns this on projectability alone and because no one in the system shows as much upside as he does. Everything hinges on whether he can develop a solid changeup and stay healthy. If he can do those two things, and it's a big if of course, there's nothing holding him back from being a top of the rotation starter. Good GB/FB ratio as well.

 

2) Gio Gonzalez - Massive strides last season. Improved his control not only in regards to his K:BB, but also GB:FB. I've read articles saying that Gio worked very hard with Dotson, the pitching coach in AA, to refine his changeup and it looks as if the work paid off.

 

3) Jack Egbert - Flat out knows how to pitch. Extreme groundball pitcher who the Sox need to develop because of the Cell. While scouts have doubted his stuff, he's made up for it in showing a knowledge of pitching that has to be one of the highest in the organization. Needs to work a bit more on lefties.

 

4) Aaron Poreda - Unless he develops a consistent slider and changeup, he'll be the next Matt Thornton assuming his rotator cuff doesn't fray.

 

5) Ryan Sweeney - Seems to be sporting the Mark Teahen circa 2004 syndrome: an inability to consistently pull the inside pitch. Excellent arm and baseball instincts, but still seems a bit lost at the plate. When I saw him in Winston-Salem three years ago he still had major issues with his swing, although I did see him nail a light pole in RF. Suffering from an atrocious mismanagement by the Sox brass. Should be just now entering Charlotte.

 

6) Jose Martinez - Look, more reaching! Faded in the second half of the season, but played extremely well for his first season in the states. Huge upside.

 

7) John Shelby - Good A-ball performances are a dime a dozen usually, but not in the Sox farm system, which leads to his high ranking. Very encouraging amount of doubles.

 

8) Oneli Perez - A poor man's Luis Vizcaino at 8, Jesus. Gets the job done at least.

 

9) Chris Getz - And a probable utility player at 9. Small, little if any power, solid plate discipline, solid defensively....sounds like David Eckstein.

 

10) Alexei Ramirez - s***, why not?

[bighurt4life]

Interesting info on Miranda, I wonder why he's struggled with his glove, are the balls hit that much harder in rookie/A ball?

[scenario]

Interesting info on Miranda, I wonder why he's struggled with his glove, are the balls hit that much harder in rookie/A ball?

I'm guessing it was mental errors... pressing to impress and losing focus. Funny how once you make a few mistakes, they can snow-ball on you as you try harder to avoid them.

 

It will be interesting to see how he adjusts this year. I'd be willing to bet he relaxes and errors go down as a result.

 

So... I'm not worried about his glove yet. What I'd like to know though is whether he has the range and arm to be a major league shortstop.

Edited December 26, 2007 by scenario

[Ozzie Ball]

 

Around the christmas period I imagine activity on the site must be down

 

Ok, I'll have a bash at this:

 

1. Fautino de los Santos- Good velocity on the FB which he can maintain into the late innings, a plus slider, has the highest ceiling of anyone in our system, change up still needs some work and control is not always there.

 

2. Gio Gonzalez- Outside chance of reaching the team out of ST, three pitch arsenal incuding one of the best curve balls in the minors, also has a solid fastball and change up. He was able to maintain his performance throughout the season and did not wear down like last year. Big improvement in his BB/9 and HR/9 rates which were big knocks on him coming into the season.

 

3. Ryan Sweeney- Didn't improve at all this season but I still feel he can develop into a quality Major Leaguer, I agree with a previous poster that he was probably rushed through the system. Supposedly made an adjustment to his swing during the AFL and finished strong (possibly as a result). Needs to take a step forward next season and start hitting for some power.

 

4. Lance Broadway- I was impressed by what I saw from Lance in his start at the end of the season, control wasn't good during the season however and that will need to improve if he's to have success in the bigs.

 

5. Jose Martinez- Very projectable, decent speed although that will probably go as he starts to fill out his body, should hit for good power as he matures and progresses.

 

6. Jack Egbert- Great numbers throughout his pro career, he's never going to be an ace but has the potential to be a solid #4. When your home ballpark is the Cell you can never have too many extreme ground ball pitchers like Egbert

 

7. John Shelby- Good athlete, has shown ability to hit for power, albeit as a 21/22 year old in Low-A ball, has shown good speed also. Haven't heard rave reviews about his defense and a move from 2nd to the outfield would affect his future value.

 

8. Aaron Poreda- Fastball has good velocity with lot's of sink and is his only plus pitch to this point, if he can develop his seconday pitches he could be great however I've not read anything so far that says he's going to be able to do that. Injuries this early into his career are a big concern.

 

9. Sergio Miranda- Very little power but appears to have a good on base ability.

 

10. Kent Gerst- Heard good things about him and not just from Mr. Employee171, size could be an issue but has plus speed and is a potential leadoff guy.

 

11. Sergio Morales

 

12. Alexi Ramirez

 

13. Francisco Hernandez

 

14. Kyle McCulloch

 

15. John Ely

 

16. Chris Getz

 

17. Adam Russell

 

18. Nevin Griffith

 

19. Oneli Perez

 

20. Lucas Harrell

(numbers are meaningless from here as I'm just listing guys I think have potential, numbers were probably pointless from about 11 onwards)

 

21. Justin Edwards

 

22. Brian Omogrosso

 

23. Kanekoa Texeira

 

24. Silveiro

 

25. Carlos Vasquez

[scenario]

 

I think it will pick up now that Christmas is over.

[BearSox]

I think it will pick up now that Christmas is over.

christmas doesn't end until about January 6th...

[Heads22]

Preliminary:

 

1. Gio Gonzalez

2. Fautino De Los Santos

3. Jack Egbert

4. Ryan Sweeney

5. Lance Broadway

6. John Shelby

7. Aaron Poreda

8. Sergio Miranda

9. Jose Martinez

10. Maurice Gartrell

11. Chris Getz

12. John Ely

13. Oneli Perez

14. Adam Russell

15. Kyle McCulloch

 

That's just off of some quick looks at numbers. Its known that I like Egbert more than most, and I'd be interested to see if BE knows much about him. I've also always been partial to Gartrell. Didn't include any of Silviero or Alexei on the list.

[scenario]

I am pretty high on Miranda. I see what GHC is getting at though, his error numbers seem high - which could be worrisome. And he got those awards in a not-exactly top tier conference.

 

Remember... Justin Verlander came from this conference. There are quite a few other current MLB players from the CAA as well. And this year, 17 players from the CAA were taken in the draft by MLB teams, including a supplemental 1st rounder (Kellen Kulbacki).

 

So, the competition isn't too shabby.

Edited December 26, 2007 by scenario

[bighurt4life]

 

 

I didn't want to waste anybody's time with my opinion as I've never seen any of these guys play, just read about them but what the hell

 

1. FDLS- Mid 90's FB, plus slider and a developing change, could become a top of the rotation starter in 3-4 years if everything goes right.

2. Gio- Plus plus curve, average change and plus FB that can hit mid 90's at times, could play his way into the rotation in spring training.

3. Sweeny- Good defense, great arm, plus speed, and power potential. Tweaked his swing in winter ball supposedly, if he starts out strong in AAA he could be an early/mid season call up. I don't think he's been handled properly, deserved more of a chance last season to prove that he belonged.

4. Poreda- Lefty's with high 90's heat don't grow on trees. Hopefully he won't become the injury problem everyone thinks he will be. If he can add a second pitch he could be a pretty nasty closer

5. Getz- Good contact hitter with great speed, he's also still young and developing.

6. Miranda- He's a good contact hitter, not much power but can get on base, great so/bb ratio. Also has a good defensive pedigree.

7. Egbert- Average stuff but he really know how to pitch and at the cell we need groundball pitchers like him.

8.Brian Anderson- He's a great defender, if he can figure out how to hit a bit more he could be our starting CF for years to come. The talent and potential is still there, just need to develop it. Supposedly he dedicated himself this winter and has been working harder than ever trying to perfect his craft.

 

After this I'd just be guessing so I'll stop here. Bureau, Don't know if you have anything on DLS but if you do I'd love to hear your take on what he brings to the table.

Edited May 23, 2008 by knightni

[max power]

I'm not replying because I would only base my opinion off of some weird combination of everyone else's here on this board, not in this thread necessarily.

[Chisoxfn]

I'll throw out a quick top 5:

 

1. Gio Gonzalez - Gio is here due to a combination of performance, stuff, and liklihood to have success. He possesses three major league pitches (FB, Change, Curve) with the curve being his best pitch. He has had improved command and has continously increased his workload over the past couple seasons. He has also had minor league success to go along with major league stuff and seems to be a very good bet to see the major league fields and have major league success. However, as far as a system goes, he isn't the high-upside #1 prospect you'd like, considering right now he grades out as a #3 starter (he would have to turn his change into a plus pitch as well as improve his command for him to grade out any higher). I would be surprised if he wasn't at worse a solid 4th/5th starter.

 

2. Faustino De Los Santos - Faustino could be higher, I think his two pitchers are better than Gio's two best pitches, but Gio has a good third pitch and Faustino doesn't. I like Faustino more than most because I think he has plenty of time to develop a third pitch and possesses a live arm (a trait you can't teach). The one major question-mark when it comes to Faustino is that he has yet to hit the high levels and with that it means he is a bit farther away from the majors so there are more things that could end up happening to prevent him from having major league success. Still, he has the arm to be an impact reliever and with a better 3rd/4th pitch he definitely has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter (and if he could turn in an additional good to plus pitch...I'd grade him as a potential #2). Ie, similar to Gio, but less of a sure thing, pushes him down on the board.

 

3. Ryan Sweeney - Sweeney has the tools, has a pretty swing, and really pure scouting wise may be the best talent in the Sox system. He has good speed, strong arm, good range and projects to develop power. The one concern is that statistically he hasn't put up the numbers that someone with his skill-set should put up. However, he seems to be a smart baseball player and is still a very young ball-player (something a lot of us seem to forget, due to the hype he got at 18/19 years old). I think Sweeney has a good chance of being a .290/20HR/.360 OBP type guy long term (with a lot of doubles while playing above average defense). I grade him out similarly to Garret Anderson (always have as I feel they have very similar swings and skillsets, with Sweeney grading out a bit better defensively).

 

4. Lance Broadway - Broadway doesn't have near the stuff of Santos/Gonzalez, but he has a bevy of pitches and every one of those pitches moves like crazy. I liken Broadway to a Brad Radke type and if he can gain better command of his pitches I think he will have a lot of major league success. At worse he will be a 5th starter at the major league level but I think he could surprise and turn into a valuable #3 starter (who will throw a lot of innings and keep the club in games). Tools wise, he wouldn't grade out that well, but I think at times scouts under-rate movement and Broadway doesn't throw a straight pitch.

 

5. John Shelby - Shelby is a good athlete with a real nice bat. I think he can hit for a high average at the major league level, with decent power numbers. All in all I think he has a chance to turn into a damn good prospect and a borderline all star.

[nitetrain8601]

Gio

DLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

No one else has a chance.

[NorthSideSox72]

Gio

DLS

 

 

No one else has a chance.

Yeah, that's right. All those other prospects, none has even a chance of making it. Thank you for that in-depth analysis.

 

[bmags]

That's interesting. I always thought that if a player didn't have high SB #'s in the minors they had no chance in the majors b/c it seems so easy when you had guys like ruddy yan getting like 80 SBs.

 

although your insight means it's truly impossible for me to have any idea about these upcoming players because i will never see any of them until mlb, if they make it.