Predict the Election

NorthSideSox72 · October 25, 2012

I thought it might be fun to have a poll, and more importantly a discussion about the electoral math.

Who will win for Prez? And what states will they carry to do it?

Lots of websites have predictor tools up now, here is a link to the CNN one.

My predictions...

Leaving all the in-the-bag states as out of play...

--There are a few states that are leaning to Obama that I think are not really in play anymore: NM, WI, MI, PA, OR

--For Romney, leaning states AZ, NC are his.

So that gives Obama 247 electoral votes, and Romney 206. Need 270 to win.

That leaves the following states being truly contested: FL (29), OH (18), VA (13), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), NH (4)

If Obama takes Florida, its over. But I am going to predict Romney wins Florida, so now Obama leads 247-235.

The three states in that list that are favoring Obama the heaviest, from what I can tell, are OH, IA and NH. if Obama wins OH and IA, its over. In fact really, if he wins OH, he then has to get just 6 more electoral votes from VA, CO, IA, NV and NH, which would be hard for him NOT to do. The math just plain favors Obama right now.

I predict Obama takes OH, IA, NH, and in a mild surprise VA. Romney takes FL, CO and NV. That gives Obama a 288-250 win.

How about the rest of you?

southsider2k5 · October 25, 2012

Obama by 3 percentage points, and with around 300 electoral votes.

cabiness42 · October 25, 2012

I think calling Michigan a swing state is very optimistic for Romney, and apparently one person thinks nobody will win Nevada.

mr_genius · October 25, 2012

I predict a tie in the electoral college.

Romney selected pres by the house

Biden selected vp by the senate

Lol's for everyone

Edited October 25, 2012 by mr_genius

southsider2k5 · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:44 PM)

I predict a tie in the electoral college.

Romney selected pres by the house

Biden selected vp by the senate

Lol's for everyone

And by lols, you mean lawsuits.

NorthSideSox72 · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:24 PM)

I think calling Michigan a swing state is very optimistic for Romney, and apparently one person thinks nobody will win Nevada.

I was going to include Michigan, New Mexico or North Carolina, and it seems like MIchigan is the closest to a swing state of the three. And I could only include 10 options.

As for Nevada, I noticed that too. Maybe Gary Johnson wins it, LOL

Jake · October 25, 2012

President Obama keeps his seat, winning the popular vote by a mere .9%

However, he will win IA, OH, CO (in addition to easier wins IMO such as WI, MI, PA, NV) and have a fairly comfortable electoral college victory.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Jake

lasttriptotulsa · October 25, 2012

I have Obama winning it and taking OH, PA, IA, WI, NH and MI of the above choices. The popular vote will be very, very close, but Obama will win. Like many have said, whoever wins Ohio is taking this election.

bmags · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 07:01 PM)

I have Obama winning it and taking OH, PA, IA, WI, NH and MI of the above choices. The popular vote will be very, very close, but Obama will win. Like many have said, whoever wins Ohio is taking this election.

I think Obama will win with ohio. But of the options, he'll only get OH and IA. Just scraping by 270. I am not even sure he wins popular vote.

Cknolls · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:18 PM)

Obama by 3 percentage points, and with around 300 electoral votes.

I will take the exact opposite. Romney with 300+ Electorals and 4+% popular vote advantage. I see Obama winning PA and NV.

southsider2k5 · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 02:33 PM)

I will take the exact opposite. Romney with 300+ Electorals and 4+% popular vote advantage. I see Obama winning PA and NV.

There is zero chance that Romney ends up with 300+ EC votes. None.

flippedoutpunk · October 25, 2012

The electoral college goes beserk, they all vote for Ron Paul.. All order is restored in America and everyone becomes rich overnight.

CrimsonWeltall · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 07:33 PM)

I will take the exact opposite. Romney with 300+ Electorals and 4+% popular vote advantage. I see Obama winning PA and NV.

Doesn't that require Romney to win every swing state plus a number of solidly blue states?

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

mr_genius · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:45 PM)

And by lols, you mean lawsuits.

It's gonna be great to watch

NorthSideSox72 · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 02:37 PM)

There is zero chance that Romney ends up with 300+ EC votes. None.

Yeah, even if he wins every single state that is actually in play, he's at around 290. And without PA and NV, Romney would have to win some seriously blue states too. Not happening.

mr_genius · October 25, 2012

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:16 PM)

I thought it might be fun to have a poll, and more importantly a discussion about the electoral math.

Who will win for Prez? And what states will they carry to do it?

Lots of websites have predictor tools up now, here is a link to the CNN one.

My predictions...

Leaving all the in-the-bag states as out of play...

--There are a few states that are leaning to Obama that I think are not really in play anymore: NM, WI, MI, PA, OR

--For Romney, leaning states AZ, NC are his.

So that gives Obama 247 electoral votes, and Romney 206. Need 270 to win.

That leaves the following states being truly contested: FL (29), OH (18), VA (13), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), NH (4)

If Obama takes Florida, its over. But I am going to predict Romney wins Florida, so now Obama leads 247-235.

The three states in that list that are favoring Obama the heaviest, from what I can tell, are OH, IA and NH. if Obama wins OH and IA, its over. In fact really, if he wins OH, he then has to get just 6 more electoral votes from VA, CO, IA, NV and NH, which would be hard for him NOT to do. The math just plain favors Obama right now.

I predict Obama takes OH, IA, NH, and in a mild surprise VA. Romney takes FL, CO and NV. That gives Obama a 288-250 win.

How about the rest of you?

flip IA and VA...

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_pred...s.php?mapid=SUY

lasttriptotulsa · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 02:17 PM)

I think Obama will win with ohio. But of the options, he'll only get OH and IA. Just scraping by 270. I am not even sure he wins popular vote.

Obama will win WI and MI pretty easily.

SOXOBAMA · October 26, 2012

President Obama will have over 300 electoral votes..

Jenksismyhero · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 06:47 AM)

Obama will win WI and MI pretty easily.

According to Drudge this morning, Obama and Romney are each at 49% in Wisconsin.

mr_genius · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:24 AM)

According to Drudge this morning, Obama and Romney are each at 49% in Wisconsin.

If Romney wins states like that, he is getting 300 electoral college votes.

lasttriptotulsa · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:24 AM)

According to Drudge this morning, Obama and Romney are each at 49% in Wisconsin.

RCP shows Obama up 2.7%. Wisconsin has gone Democrat the last 5 elections and many in the state are weary about voting for Republicans after the whole Scott Walker disaster.

Jake · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:24 AM)

According to Drudge this morning, Obama and Romney are each at 49% in Wisconsin.

Polling averages have Obama up 3-4%

lasttriptotulsa · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:57 AM)

If Romney wins states like that, he is getting 300 electoral college votes.

Give it up, Romney has no prayer of getting to 300.

lasttriptotulsa · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 07:56 AM)

President Obama will have over 300 electoral votes..

He definitely has a legit chance. If he can carry Florida again (which is currently leaning Romney) and win Ohio, he'll get there.

mr_genius · October 26, 2012

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:57 AM)

RCP shows Obama up 2.7%. Wisconsin has gone Democrat the last 5 elections and many in the state are weary about voting for Republicans after the whole Scott Walker disaster.

If Romney gets the same result as the Scott Walker recall, he wins. I just don't see Democrats not voting Romney because of Scott Walker. Anyways, as you said, WI is pretty much a consistent Democrat win in Presidential elections. So I don't have WI going to Romney, but if that stuff starts happening it's going to be a blowout win for Romney.

Predict the Election

Who wins the 2012 Prez Election? 34 members have voted

1. Who will win the election?

2. What "swing" states will Obama win?

3. What "swing" states will Romney win?

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Who wins the 2012 Prez Election?
34 members have voted