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MLB.com AL Central pre-season predictions


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They're picking the Indians ahead of our Sox :finger

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb...tives&fext=.jsp

 

The favorite

 

Twins

Another year, another bunch of holes to fill. But somehow GM Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire keep finding ways to compensate for the steady trickle of departing players: LaTroy Hawkins, Eddie Guardado, Doug Mientkiewicz, and now Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman. The Twins still have one of the better all-around outfields in baseball (and unparalleled depth at the position), the reigning Cy Young Award winner and enough talent to ensure a fourth consecutive division crown -- provided everyone remains healthy.

 

Projected regular-season finish: AL Central champions

 

Biggest ST challenge: Replacing the entire starting left side of their infield after losing Koskie and Guzman. Michael Cuddyer will get the shot at third base, and newcomer Juan Castro will bring his proven glove to shortstop, but the real challenge will be replacing Koskie's and Guzman's production.

 

Best position battles: The biggest scrum should be the four-man fight for the fifth spot in the rotation between Joe Mays, Terry Mulholland, Scott Baker and J.D. Durbin.

 

Wild card: If the new starters don't perform up to expectations -- or if injuries derail too many key players, which happened last year with catcher Joe Mauer -- the Twins could be vulnerable.

 

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

 

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The challengers

 

Indians

With a stronger pitching staff, a deeper bench and more overall depth and talent than they've had the last two years, the Indians have a chance to go even farther this year than the 2004 team which made a late bid for the playoffs before fading. The Indians figure to have one of the more potent offenses in the league, and with veterans like Kevin Millwood, Aaron Boone, Jose Hernandez and Alex Cora complementing an impressive cast of holdovers, this team has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

 

Projected regular-season finish: Second place

 

Biggest ST challenge: Jhonny Peralta must not worry about replacing Omar Vizquel; he just needs to prove he is ready to be an everyday shortstop over Brandon Phillips. Is Boone ready to make a comeback after missing the 2004 season? Can Casey Blake make the transition from third base to the outfield? The answers will be key to Cleveland's chances.

 

Best position battles: The Indians are fairly set across the board, although there could be a platoon situation or two depending on how certain players perform. First base may be the most interesting battle of all. Holdover Ben Broussard had a fine season last year, but Jose Hernandez brings power, and highly regarded Michael Aubrey is considered a can't-miss prospect.

 

Wild card: If Bob Wickman does not stay healthy and handle the closer role, the bullpen situation could become dicey in a hurry. With several players coming back from injury and a few newcomers, the team could have an adjustment period. But if the players produce as expected, there's no reason this team can't win the division.

 

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

 

White Sox

The White Sox continue their move from power to a more balanced offensive attack -- or, at least, that's the goal. With at least three new Opening Day starters, the White Sox will have a new look this season. It remains to be seen whether the faster model will be more successful than the slugging one the club had relied on the last few years.

 

Projected regular-season finish: Third place

 

Biggest ST challenge: Replacing the considerable offense lost when Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin and Magglio Ordonez departed.

 

Best position battles: Willie Harris is expected to be the starter at second base, but he could get a run for his money from Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi, who signed a two-year contract with an option for a third.

 

Wild card: There's no doubt this team will be more suited to Ozzie Guillen's style. If the starting rotation can keep up its end and the bullpen additions do the job, these White Sox could surprise some people.

 

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

 

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The long shot

 

Tigers

Despite a 29-game improvement from 2003 to 2004, the Tigers finished 18 games under .500 last season. Efforts to make a big splash on the free agent market, like they did with Ivan Rodriguez last offseason, fell short more often than not this time, as the Tigers missed out on their bids to sign Jeff Kent and Koskie. But they did add closer Troy Percival -- and the bullpen was the weakest area of last year's team, so that's great news. The Tigers' offense and rotation figure to be at least as strong as last year, if not stronger.

 

Projected regular-season finish: Fourth place

 

Biggest ST challenge: The young arms in the bullpen and the rotation need to show progress this year. Though injuries have been a significant stumbling block, many of the key youngsters have, by now, pitched enough innings to take their games to the next level.

 

Best position battles: The bullpen rotation, beyond Percival at closer and Ugueth Urbina in a late-inning role, is up in the air, and there should be a scramble for the remaining slots. A lot of the young talent -- including Fernando Rodney, Nate Cornejo, Chris Spurling, Preston Larrison, and Rob Henkel -- was injured for parts of last season.

 

Wild card: With a full season of good health, improvement from their young pitchers and stability at third base, the Tigers might be able to creep over .500. In the AL Central, that would be just a few breaks away from contention.

 

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

 

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Maybe next year

 

Royals

The Royals entered 2004 with high hopes after a surprising 2003 season under rookie manager, and 2003 AL Manager of the Year, Tony Pena. But injuries quickly erased those hopes, and by July the Royals were in full rebuild mode. That rebuilding figures to continue this year. Pena will have a mixture of promising, but largely inexperienced, talent and inexpensive veterans to work with.

 

Projected regular-season finish: Last place

 

Biggest ST challenge: Will Runelvys Hernandez make it all the way back after missing the 2004 season? Will youngsters Zach Greinke, Jeremy Affeldt, John Buck and David DeJesus continue their development, or take a step back? Will the Royals get enough production from their outfield? These challenges and more await Pena and the Royals.

 

Best position battles: Aaron Guiel, Matt Stairs and Eli Marrero are expected to tough it out for the starting job in left field.

 

Wild card: Two years ago, the Royals went from 100 losses to contention, so it's certainly possible -- if unlikely -- that they could make a huge jump in 2005. They would need breakout years from key youngsters, surprising seasons from guys like Chris Truby and Terrence Long, and continued good health and production from veterans like Mike Sweeney, Ken Harvey, Brian Anderson and Jose Lima.

 

More: Spring Training preview | Quick hits | Spring schedule and tickets

 

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You read it here first ...

 

1) Mauer finally stays healthy and becomes the outstanding catcher most predicted he would be all along.

 

2) Boone wins Comeback Player of the Year.

 

3) The Tigers finally get their man, signing free agent outfielder Magglio Ordonez just in time for Spring Training.

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that's about the way i'd pick it. at this point i'd put the indians ahead of the sox, only because i have no feel for how the sox will perform with such a dramatically changed roster. i like the moves they've made, but as minoso said "you never know."

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The Twins should be the favorites every year until they are finally de-throaned from the top of the AL Central.

Twins keys to 4-peating: Johan continues his dominance, continue the stellar defense, stay healthy, Joe Nathan continues to shut down the opposition.

Biggest strength: Defense and Scrappy Baserunning

Biggest weakness: Other than Joe Nathan their bullpen is weak.

 

Indians keys to succuess: They are definitely on the rise, last season they had 5 young all-stars, and surprised many teams. They made some pitching improvements and supplied some depth this offseason. If they stay healthy, and the starting pitching can hold their own ground then maybe they can compete for the central division title.

Biggest Strength: Solid Offensive Line-up

Biggest weakness: Relief pitching.

 

I'm happy nobody is picking our White Sox to win the division. I think all the critics and sports reporters are focusing waaaayy tooo much on the loses of Maggs and C. Lee. This team is now offesnively balanced for the first time since the mid-90's. They clearly now have the best bullpen in the Central with the aquistions of Vizciano and Hermanson.

You can also argue that the Sox have the best rotation in the Central with the aquistion of El-Duque. They improved their defense with the aquistions of Podsednick and Dye. They improved on the basepaths with aquisition of Podsednick and Iguchi. It's amazing how people are not focusing on the fact this team is balanced. Well the one good thing about not being picked to win the division is that they will surprise a lot of teams.

Biggest strength: starting rotation and bullpen

Biggest weakness: possible lack of offensive power

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I'll keep it short & simple:

 

The Sox have built a team that more closely resembles the Twins.

Improved rotation, bullpen, speed, quickness, & D.

The talent on the Sox has much greater upside potential than the Twins.

But the talent on the Sox also has less proven success than the Twins.

 

A big part of that proven success came from Koskie & Guzman in the form of game saving plays & game winning hits. I'm going with the team with the best potential over the team with most proven success.

 

The Indians have the 2nd best potential.

Improved rotation, power, & bullpen but at a loss of speed, quickness, & D.

If the bullpen can hold the leads Cleveland will win the division. There's no question in my mind about that. But I put greater stock in the Sox overall potential than Cleveland's bullpen.

 

The Tigers improved their pen & their lineup but didn't do much with their rotation. That rotation still looks like 50-60 wins. The bullpen is not good enough to overcome that. No better than 4th. Maggs won't change that.

Pavano might have.

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QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 01:31 PM)

 

 

Funny you should post that.

 

The first link mentioned how Felix Diaz may head to Japan.

 

With the rotation apparently set, what will become of last year's fifth-starter auditions? Cotts, who made just one spot start in Minnesota, will join Damaso Marte as the left-handed duo out of the bullpen. Rauch and Wright are no longer with the White Sox, Schoeneweis signed on as a free agent with Toronto and Diaz reportedly has drawn interest from a team in Japan.
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I've got to go with the Twins as well. I hope & pray the SOX win the div, but the pen comparison is to vast to go against them.

 

In the 2nd 1/2 of 04 no one hit better than .199 against Nathan, Ricon, Romero, & Crain. The Twins might have the best pen in the MLs. The 4 J's

look unhitable.

 

That leaves 2 spots for Guerrier, Belfour, & Mullholland/Mays (whomever wins the 5th spot) Guerrier is better than Politte. & Belfour is much better than Adkins. Opp hit 243 vs Matt G, & 276 vs Belfour. They hit a whopping 313 vs Adkins. Opp hit 252 vs Cotts. I motion that Cotts replace Adkins.

 

Anyways, the Twins lineup with a healthy Hunter & Mauer looks on par with the Sox. The Sox have a slight edge in the rotation. Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse is just as good as Buerhle, Garcia, Hernandez, & Contreras. But the Twins still have a commanding edge in the pen.

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I agree with these rankings....

 

But The Tribe could be #1!

 

Your pen is not good enough.

Wickm .261BAv 1.42WHIP 3.70era

Riske .240BAv 1.42WHIP 3.72era

Benta .268 1.34 3.92

Miller .216 1.17 3.09

Barto .275 1.71 4.66

Howry .228 1.15 2.74

Sauer .240 1.52 3.71

 

I would say the tribe's chances of being #1 are equal to that of the Twins losing

2 of their 4 J's (J Nathan, J Rincon, J Romero, & J Crain).

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QUOTE(winninguglyin83 @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 07:56 PM)
saw two magazines on the stands today

 

Street & Smiths has it

 

1. Twins

 

2. Tribe

 

3. Tigers

 

4. Sox

 

5. Royals

 

Sporting News has it

 

1. Twins

 

2. Sox

 

3. Tribe

 

4. Tigers

 

5. Royals.

 

 

:lolhitting SandS has us 4th!??!?!?!?!

 

 

 

Anyway, is Sporting News already out? Usually doesn't come out until much later.

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QUOTE(KevHead0881 @ Feb 2, 2005 -> 02:00 PM)
Can't argue with the Twins as the favs.  Until we knock them off, there is no reason to think otherwise.  The Indians on the other hand...  :huh

 

 

I agree with ya on that one. This isin't the first time the Sox have had a better team on paper than Minny in the last few years and we know the results from before.

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