Are we really out of contention this coming season?

[Jenksismyhero]

Seems to me that most of the national pundits are calling for a Detroit and Cleveland battle for first, with the Sox coming in at 4th or possibly 3rd. Am I missing something? We have essentially the same team as last year. Detroit and Minny will regress (no way their pitching/hitting can duplicate last year) and yet the Sox were still in it the last week of the season, even though we had some of the worst career performances by some players, Buerhle in particular. Cleveland does scare me because they have an offense that can match us, but they did little to upgrade their pitching, specifically their bullpen.

 

Am I crazy to think the Sox should be the favorites or cofavorites at worst in the most difficult division in baseball (now three years running...)??

[RockRaines]

no.

[NorthSideSox72]

Sounds a little like the predictions 2 years ago at this time.

 

I'd be surprised if we don't contend for or win a playoff spot (assuming we are relatively healthy).

[SnB]

It could go one way or the other this year. We have a very talented team, but certain parts could definitely tank, leaving us with a terrible year. (5th starter, young bullpen)

[southsider2k5]

No

[RockRaines]

No

post-padder

[southsider2k5]

post-padder

 

Longer explanation is that we still have a great offense, the best in the division. We have a very good starting 4, plus about half a dozen guys potentially capable of putting up adequate numbers as a 5th starter. The bullpen is filled with flameflowers, and 3 guys who could be closers (or have been) on lots of teams. The defense is still very good, except for LF, and the guys really seem to like playing for Ozzie.

[RibbieRubarb]

Longer explanation is that we still have a great offense, the best in the division. We have a very good starting 4, plus about half a dozen guys potentially capable of putting up adequate numbers as a 5th starter. The bullpen is filled with flameflowers, and 3 guys who could be closers (or have been) on lots of teams. The defense is still very good, except for LF, and the guys really seem to like playing for Ozzie.

 

 

Ditto

 

 

 

 

[maggsmaggs]

In our division there is no dominant team. Detroit will have World Series syndrome meaning injuries to their pitching staff as well as the high expectations, Minnesota has one reliable starting pitcher, Cleveland has no bullpen and a crappy defense and KC simply sucks. Personally, whoever gets hot in April, I think, will be the team to win the division.

[Hideaway Lights]

People need to stop pretending like just because some people were down on the 05 team that being down on the 07 team is similar. For one thing, we did not have a single starter who had not pitched at least 300 innings of major league ball as a starter going into 2005. Our fifth starter situation more closely resembles 04 than 05.

 

If you think we will be as strong as either 2005 or 2006 at starting pitcher, that is seriously delusional, and starting pitching is the most important component to long term success at the major league level. Our fourth and fifth slots are going to be disaster areas for portions of the year.

 

This is an 83-87 game winner without any more moves being made.

[NorthSideSox72]

People need to stop pretending like just because some people were down on the 05 team that being down on the 07 team is similar. For one thing, we did not have a single starter who had not pitched at least 300 innings of major league ball as a starter going into 2005. Our fifth starter situation more closely resembles 04 than 05.

 

If you think we will be as strong as either 2005 or 2006 at starting pitcher, that is seriously delusional, and starting pitching is the most important component to long term success at the major league level. Our fourth and fifth slots are going to be disaster areas for portions of the year.

 

This is an 83-87 game winner without any more moves being made.

WTF are you talking about? 300 innings? If you mean 300 total, then much of the staff had that in 2005, if not all. If you meant one season, then no one in baseball has that. If you meant 200, what about Freddy? Or Buerhle? You just are completely wrong on this one.

 

And how are 2005 and 2006 performances, which were night and day, comparable in your eyes?

 

And who is this supposed "disaster" in the fourth slot?

Edited January 17, 2007 by NorthSideSox72

[Balta1701]

Longer explanation is that we still have a great offense, the best in the division. We have a very good starting 4, plus about half a dozen guys potentially capable of putting up adequate numbers as a 5th starter. The bullpen is filled with flameflowers, and 3 guys who could be closers (or have been) on lots of teams. The defense is still very good, except for LF, and the guys really seem to like playing for Ozzie.

I would like to say that it's a strong possibility that the White Sox will actually have the 2nd best offense in the division next year. That Cleveland lineup scares the bejeezus out of me.

 

On the other hand though, just in terms of potential, not yet in terms of performance, I don't see any other team as balanced as the Sox. Cleveland has a dominant lineup, but their starting staff might be 3rd or 4th in the division and defense isn't their strongest suit in some spots. Detroit could have a very good starting staff again and an improved offense, so they're close. Minnesota has lost a ton, especially in pitching. They still have a strong bullpen, but they're relying an awful lot on Johan + rookies. The White Sox have a potentially solid 1-5 rotation, potentially very good bullpen, potentially very good defense, and potentially great offense again.

 

This division is going to be an interesting one to watch play out.

[witesoxfan]

People need to stop pretending like just because some people were down on the 05 team that being down on the 07 team is similar. For one thing, we did not have a single starter who had not pitched at least 300 innings of major league ball as a starter going into 2005. Our fifth starter situation more closely resembles 04 than 05.

 

If you think we will be as strong as either 2005 or 2006 at starting pitcher, that is seriously delusional, and starting pitching is the most important component to long term success at the major league level. Our fourth and fifth slots are going to be disaster areas for portions of the year.

 

This is an 83-87 game winner without any more moves being made.

 

Starting pitching is so overrated in the regular season. If you can get 5 guys with an ERA of 4.50 or better - and that's very possible with this group - and it's a good rotation.

 

The Sox bullpen is much, much improved this year. That is one key.

The Sox lineup has to be better up and down too...if everyone has an OPS of around .700 or better (obviously the middle has to be higher...hopefully the 2-7 are all above .800, yada yada). If the lineup is up and down more consistent - and I think it will be - then I see no reason this team isn't around an 89-92 win team, with potential to be better than that.

[Jeff Liefer]

I honestly think there's nothing to worry about with the current roster. The lineup is incredibly overpowering and our rotation still has a core of pitchers that have proven they can be dominant at the major league level. The young pitching that was added to the bullpen will allow our starters to rest more than last year and things should be OK. I don't think this team is a thing different than the one you saw at the beginning of last year. Last year's team was stacked, but ran out of gas. This time around I think everyone's being a little wiser, including Ozzie. They're going to be fine for the long run and win over 90 games and capture the division. And for all of the Buehrle doubters, be ready for a career year. He's too much of a leader to just slip off the face of the earth again. Be more optimistic...we're not going to win the World Series every year.

[NorthSideSox72]

I honestly think there's nothing to worry about with the current roster. The lineup is incredibly overpowering and our rotation still has a core of pitchers that have proven they can be dominant at the major league level. The young pitching that was added to the bullpen will allow our starters to rest more than last year and things should be OK. I don't think this team is a thing different than the one you saw at the beginning of last year. Last year's team was stacked, but ran out of gas. This time around I think everyone's being a little wiser, including Ozzie. They're going to be fine for the long run and win over 90 games and capture the division. And for all of the Buehrle doubters, be ready for a career year. He's too much of a leader to just slip off the face of the earth again. Be more optimistic...we're not going to win the World Series every year.

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[Hideaway Lights]

WTF are you talking about? 300 innings? If you mean 300 total, then much of the staff had that in 2005, if not all. If you meant one season, then no one in baseball has that. If you meant 200, what about Freddy? Or Buerhle? You just are completely wrong on this one.

 

And how are 2005 and 2006 performances, which were night and day, comparable in your eyes?

 

And who is this supposed "disaster" in the fourth slot?

 

when did I ever compare 2005 to 2006 pitching wise? I said that this season wasn't going to be as good as 2005 or 2006

 

yes, 300 TOTAL innings. As in career. As in that means something.

 

 

 

Starting pitching is so overrated in the regular season. If you can get 5 guys with an ERA of 4.50 or better - and that's very possible with this group - and it's a good rotation.

 

The Sox bullpen is much, much improved this year. That is one key.

The Sox lineup has to be better up and down too...if everyone has an OPS of around .700 or better (obviously the middle has to be higher...hopefully the 2-7 are all above .800, yada yada). If the lineup is up and down more consistent - and I think it will be - then I see no reason this team isn't around an 89-92 win team, with potential to be better than that.

 

What do you project Vazquez's ERA to be, based on his career totals in the American League?

 

What do you project the fifth starter's ERA to be?

 

I project Vazquez at 5.00 and the fifth starter at about 5.00 as well AT BEST. Probably more likely is that they are around 5.25.

[southsider2k5]

when did I ever compare 2005 to 2006 pitching wise? I said that this season wasn't going to be as good as 2005 or 2006

 

yes, 300 TOTAL innings. As in career. As in that means something.

What do you project Vazquez's ERA to be, based on his career totals in the American League?

 

What do you project the fifth starter's ERA to be?

 

I project Vazquez at 5.00 and the fifth starter at about 5.00 as well AT BEST. Probably more likely is that they are around 5.25.

 

Recommended reading on ERA average for each starting position

 

Give this a read. If we get a 5.25 era out of the #5 spot, we are a run better than average, combined with our offense, that is a HUGE advantage for the Sox.

[NorthSideSox72]

when did I ever compare 2005 to 2006 pitching wise? I said that this season wasn't going to be as good as 2005 or 2006

 

You said "as strong as either 2005 or 2006". Except, they were strong in 2005, and weak in 2006.

 

yes, 300 TOTAL innings. As in career. As in that means something.

 

Garcia had over 1000 innings at that point. Buerhle had 800+. Garland had 800 or so. Hernandez had about 500. In other words, they were experienced pitchers - all five.

 

You are just not correct.

[bullpenHeat]

Hello all. My first post here. I think we have a lot to look forward too. Uribe cant be any worse this year could he? What about Anderson? Podsednik should get a healthy full spring training this year, which could be huge for him. 3-5 will be solid again, Dye is playing for a contract. Buerhle is playing for a HUGE contract, so he should be good for 16-17 wins. The catcher situation is much improved. The bullpen is young, but I feel there will be strength in numbers, as if any falter, Charlotte is loaded with hungry pitchers who are capable. The bullpen will struggle at times, but will also dominate at times as well. In conclusion, 8-1 in the lineup cant be any worse than last year, the bullpen should be better than last year, 3-5 is still best in the league, and oh yeah, our 1-4 will be fully rested and healthy. Im smelling 85-86 wins, by early September!!!

[WilliamTell]

No question about it, we are in contention. Everyone is in contention until the Pirates play their 2nd game of the year. But no, seriously, the Sox have a solid team and will be very good.

[klaus kinski]

Hello all. My first post here. I think we have a lot to look forward too. Uribe cant be any worse this year could he? What about Anderson? Podsednik should get a healthy full spring training this year, which could be huge for him. 3-5 will be solid again, Dye is playing for a contract. Buerhle is playing for a HUGE contract, so he should be good for 16-17 wins. The catcher situation is much improved. The bullpen is young, but I feel there will be strength in numbers, as if any falter, Charlotte is loaded with hungry pitchers who are capable. The bullpen will struggle at times, but will also dominate at times as well. In conclusion, 8-1 in the lineup cant be any worse than last year, the bullpen should be better than last year, 3-5 is still best in the league, and oh yeah, our 1-4 will be fully rested and healthy. Im smelling 85-86 wins, by early September!!!

 

Welcome and enjoy it here

[Hideaway Lights]

You said "as strong as either 2005 or 2006". Except, they were strong in 2005, and weak in 2006.

Garcia had over 1000 innings at that point. Buerhle had 800+. Garland had 800 or so. Hernandez had about 500. In other words, they were experienced pitchers - all five.

 

You are just not correct.

 

You must be incredibly incapable of either reading correctly or understanding elementary logic. Let me break it down for you.

 

1) all five pitchers had at least 300 total inning pitches at the major league level in 2005

2) the fifth starter will have hardly any experience pitching at the major league level in 2007

 

maybe you can now see how those clauses are related.

Edited January 17, 2007 by Hideaway Lights

[Balta1701]

You must be incredibly incapable of either reading correctly or understanding elementary logic. Let me break it down for you.

 

1) all five pitchers had at least 300 total inning pitches at the major league level in 2005

2) the fifth starter will have hardly any experience pitching at the major league level in 2007

 

maybe you can now see how those clauses are related.

I'm somewhat uncertain as to how exactly this is of huge importance. While it is noteworthy yes, I'd say that the evidence from quite a few teams last season is that you don't necessarily need an unbelievably experienced pitching staff at every position in order to dominate out of the rotation; you need quality pitchers, no matter their age.

 

Just running through my memory, I seem to recall teams getting their money's worth out of quite a few young guys. Verlander, Weaver, Liriano, the entire Marlins starting staff not named Willis, Papelbon, Reyes, Wainright, Hill, need I go on?

 

Yes, its entirely possible that a kid or two could struggle. But we do counter that to some extent with depth, and with sheer talent. It is not a given that just because a pitcher is young, he will stink.

[klaus kinski]

I agree about the young pitchers-a couple could emerge and we could be dominant. The competition factor is there for all the young studs we picked up. There is no way we will not be in contention.

[Baines3]

I look for Detroit to finish in 3rd place, they will be hard pressed to duplicate what they did last season. If we get the pitching and stay healthy we should be in contention.