Getz vs. Nix

[balfanman]

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,7882974.story

 

According to the last paragraph of this article, Ozzie thinks that C. J. Retherford, or someone else already in the organization may be able to take the utility job away from Nix and/or Lillibridge this spring.

 

 

[ThunderBolt]

Nix has a lot of work cut out for him. He needs to cut down on his k's and maintain a batting average of around .250 to be worth a shot. Until then, Getz who walks more, and is a tad faster is the clear favorite.

[Ozzie Ball]

Nix has a lot of work cut out for him. He needs to cut down on his k's and maintain a batting average of around .250 to be worth a shot. Until then, Getz who walks more, and is a tad faster is the clear favorite.

1. Nix' walk rate was much better than Getz' last year and his career walk rate is also much better than Getz', so that right there is just untrue.

2. While Nix' average was low his BABIP was also ridiculously low at .251 (to Getz' .301), and using an xBABIP calculator (for expected BABIP) Nix should have been at .289 (BABIP), giving him a luck adjusted batting average somewhere around .260-.265.

3. Power is obviously a huge win in Nix' favour.

And if that's not enough:

4. Nix' defensive value at 2nd is worth more than Getz' offensive and defensive value combined, this is due to Nix being a very good defender with great range and Getz being below average both offensively and defensively.

 

I agree that Getz is the clear favourite but not because he's the better option, but rather management, or should I say Ozzie, is largely clueless.

[ThunderBolt]

I agree that Getz is the clear favourite but not because he's the better option, but rather management, or should I say Ozzie, is largely clueless.

No argument here, i'm the biggest Nix guy on the board. I'm rooting for the guy, i just think Getz would have to implode to lose the job.

[Chisoxfn]

Probably not becaus he's not one of the players we're forced to add. When he gets added it'll probably be because he made the team. All I know is that, if he's still here come Spring Training, Jayson Nix has a hell of a battle ahead of him if he wants to keep his job.

I could care less of Nix is gone. He's a decent back-up but he does a lot of things wrong offensively and his big defensive value is at 2B (since he was a horrendous SS). Basically put, I don't want anyone to confuse this guy for a starter.

 

He's a worse offensive version of Nick Swisher.

[Chisoxfn]

Nix has a lot of work cut out for him. He needs to cut down on his k's and maintain a batting average of around .250 to be worth a shot. Until then, Getz who walks more, and is a tad faster is the clear favorite.

Lets make one thing clear. Getz is the starter. Ozzie and the Sox don't like Nix as a potential starter. They've made this very evident and I'm very thankful for that cause I completely agree with Getz starting.

[ThunderBolt]

Lets make one thing clear. Getz is the starter. Ozzie and the Sox don't like Nix as a potential starter. They've made this very evident and I'm very thankful for that cause I completely agree with Getz starting.

There’s something about that tone I find a bit patronizing. I recognize that Getz is the starter; it doesn’t mean I have to agree with it. Just like I recognize that you don’t think of much of Nix as a player, doesn’t mean I have to agree with that either.

[scenario]

No argument here, i'm the biggest Nix guy on the board.

 

No...

 

You're the 2nd biggest Nix guy on the board behind Ozzie Ball.... who I'm beginning to think must be a blood relative of Jayson's.

 

Edited October 21, 2009 by scenario

[Balta1701]

No...

 

You're the 2nd biggest Nix guy on the board behind Ozzie Ball.... who I'm beginning to think must be a blood relative of Jayson's.

 

He can't be, there's no Y in his name. It'd have to be Ozzye ball or something like that.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

1. Nix' walk rate was much better than Getz' last year and his career walk rate is also much better than Getz', so that right there is just untrue.

2. While Nix' average was low his BABIP was also ridiculously low at .251 (to Getz' .301), and using an xBABIP calculator (for expected BABIP) Nix should have been at .289 (BABIP), giving him a luck adjusted batting average somewhere around .260-.265.

3. Power is obviously a huge win in Nix' favour.

And if that's not enough:

4. Nix' defensive value at 2nd is worth more than Getz' offensive and defensive value combined, this is due to Nix being a very good defender with great range and Getz being below average both offensively and defensively.

 

I agree that Getz is the clear favourite but not because he's the better option, but rather management, or should I say Ozzie, is largely clueless.

Yeah, because a 2B who is on pace to K about 130 times per season with a career batting average just above the Mendoza line (.206) is really such a fantastic option in the first place.

 

To address your other points:

1. Nix walks more often, but his batting average consistently sucks which is why Getz has always gotten on base more. In the Majors, Getz's career OBP is .323 at while Nix's is .295. In the minors, Get has a career .362 OBP vs. a .332 OBP for Nix. Both players will draw walks, but because Getz actually puts the bat on the ball he's a better bet to get on base.

2. Using BABIP to add 36-41 points to Nix's batting average is ridiculous. He's a career .261 hitter in the minors for God sakes. I guess he's been "unlucky" his entire professional career. Call me crazy, but I just think he's a s***ty hitter. So please, tell me why Nix is a .260+ hitter in the Majors. His best professional seasons have come in the PCL while repeating AAA.

3. Yes, Nix has much more power than Getz. However, those power numbers are misleading. In a roughly equal sample size, Nix slugged .496 in 121 AB against lefties, but he only slugged .328 in 134 AB vs. righties. Why would anyone expect those power numbers to show up vs. RHP? Keep in mind the 40 K vs. RHP compared to the 24 K vs. LHP.

4. Oh please. Getz may not be as strong as Nix is defensively, but you're actually saying Nix is soooo much better in the field that Getz cannot effectively replace him despite being the better hitter? And BTW I personally see Getz as average in the field, not below average, so I don't know what you're looking at. If you were using some metric then it wasn't RF/G or RF/9 since Getz beats him in both of those as a 2B.

 

[Chisoxfn]

There’s something about that tone I find a bit patronizing. I recognize that Getz is the starter; it doesn’t mean I have to agree with it. Just like I recognize that you don’t think of much of Nix as a player, doesn’t mean I have to agree with that either.

I am patronitzing it because Nix isn't an MLB starter. No one who hits like he did should even be considered for an everyday job. If he had upside and ever showed the ability to actually be a hitter that would be one thing, but all he's shown is that he's a very one-dimensional offensive player.

 

Luckily those that understand how the game of baseball is actually played (its not on a calculator by the way), realize this and know that there is so much more than spitting out OPS or calling guys averages "empty".

 

Getz is so much more of a ball-player than Nix and brings so many other things to the table. Does that mean Getz is an all star 2B, absolutely not.

 

But I think he brings a ton to the table. Especially when you look at the Sox and realize some of there biggest problems have been due to the fact that they have guys that can't hit for high averages or get on base at a high clip.

 

I think Getz upside as an average to a slightly above average defensive 2nd baseman who has a shot at being a near .300 hitter with very good speed. To me that upside is far greater than a 2B who hits .220 with 20HR's and 170 or so strikeouts. Not to mention over a full-season I fully believe we'd see Nix major swing-flaws (he's got a very long swing) get taken advantage of by advanced scouting and solid to good major league pitching.

 

Nix has the ability to be a good utility player in the sense that he can provide power off the bench and a solid eye, but the key to him will be to shorten his swing and improve his defense at SS and 3B because back-ups that can only play 2B above average and don't hit a lot aren't going to have an extensive major league career.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I am patronitzing it because Nix isn't an MLB starter. No one who hits like he did should even be considered for an everyday job. If he had upside and ever showed the ability to actually be a hitter that would be one thing, but all he's shown is that he's a very one-dimensional offensive player.

 

Luckily those that understand how the game of baseball is actually played (its not on a calculator by the way), realize this and know that there is so much more than spitting out OPS or calling guys averages "empty".

 

Getz is so much more of a ball-player than Nix and brings so many other things to the table. Does that mean Getz is an all star 2B, absolutely not.

 

But I think he brings a ton to the table. Especially when you look at the Sox and realize some of there biggest problems have been due to the fact that they have guys that can't hit for high averages or get on base at a high clip.

 

I think Getz upside as an average to a slightly above average defensive 2nd baseman who has a shot at being a near .300 hitter with very good speed. To me that upside is far greater than a 2B who hits .220 with 20HR's and 170 or so strikeouts. Not to mention over a full-season I fully believe we'd see Nix major swing-flaws (he's got a very long swing) get taken advantage of by advanced scouting and solid to good major league pitching.

 

Nix has the ability to be a good utility player in the sense that he can provide power off the bench and a solid eye, but the key to him will be to shorten his swing and improve his defense at SS and 3B because back-ups that can only play 2B above average and don't hit a lot aren't going to have an extensive major league career.

Agree with all of this. I was going to put the "baseball player" tag on Getz in my post above but didn't because those things always lead to arguments. Basically Getz has what it takes to stick in the Majors as a starter at 2B, even if he turns out to be another David Eckstein (a common comparison coming up) and is the type of player who is always kind of s*** on for not being exceptional in any given area. Nix OTOH - a lot has to go right for him, and all it takes is a couple months - if that - of hitting .220 to get dropped from an MLB roster. Once that happens it is hard to come back.

[False Alarm]

i generally fall more on the stathead side of the spectrum (eg, i was pro-swisher), but i'm with chisoxfn and KHP on getz-nix. nix has never shown he can hit major league pitching. getz has a track record as a guy who can make contact and get on base. nothing fancy but he's much more likely to be a useful starter. i do worry about his durability a little bit.

 

also i've been married for 5+ years and still have way too much useless sports info. for example i remember how bad i wanted to see arnie munoz pitch when he was a prospect and how disappointed i was when i found out i wouldn't be able to see his first MLB start cuz it was on my wedding night. he got lit up, horribly lit up, by the expos and i believe is now a rent-a-cop somewhere, though not a very intimidating one.

 

anyway, not sure what any of that says about me.

[danman31]

He's a worse offensive version of Nick Swisher.

I understand you hate Swisher, but near-Swisher numbers at 2B would be spectacular. This argument is pretty hopeless. Getz projected as a utility guy in the minors and did nothing to prove otherwise last year. I'm not going to defend Nix, but I have a hard time watching Getz this year and thinking MLB caliber starter.

[Ozzie Ball]

Yeah, because a 2B who is on pace to K about 130 times per season with a career batting average just above the Mendoza line (.206) is really such a fantastic option in the first place.

 

To address your other points:

1. Nix walks more often, but his batting average consistently sucks which is why Getz has always gotten on base more. In the Majors, Getz's career OBP is .323 at while Nix's is .295. In the minors, Get has a career .362 OBP vs. a .332 OBP for Nix. Both players will draw walks, but because Getz actually puts the bat on the ball he's a better bet to get on base.

2. Using BABIP to add 36-41 points to Nix's batting average is ridiculous. He's a career .261 hitter in the minors for God sakes. I guess he's been "unlucky" his entire professional career. Call me crazy, but I just think he's a s***ty hitter. So please, tell me why Nix is a .260+ hitter in the Majors. His best professional seasons have come in the PCL while repeating AAA.

3. Yes, Nix has much more power than Getz. However, those power numbers are misleading. In a roughly equal sample size, Nix slugged .496 in 121 AB against lefties, but he only slugged .328 in 134 AB vs. righties. Why would anyone expect those power numbers to show up vs. RHP? Keep in mind the 40 K vs. RHP compared to the 24 K vs. LHP.

4. Oh please. Getz may not be as strong as Nix is defensively, but you're actually saying Nix is soooo much better in the field that Getz cannot effectively replace him despite being the better hitter? And BTW I personally see Getz as average in the field, not below average, so I don't know what you're looking at. If you were using some metric then it wasn't RF/G or RF/9 since Getz beats him in both of those as a 2B.

Derek Jeter AVG vs. BABIP

1995:

AVG- .250

BABIP- .324

1996:

AVG- .314 (+.064 from previous year)

BABIP- .368 (+.044 from previous year)

1997:

AVG- .291 (-.023)

BABIP- .347 (-.021)

1998:

AVG- .324 (+.033)

BABIP- .377 (+.030)

1999:

AVG- .349 (+.025)

BABIP- .400 (+.023)

2000:

AVG- .339 (-.010)

BABIP- .388 (-.012)

2001:

AVG- .311 (-.028)

BABIP- .344 (-.044)

2002:

AVG- .297 (-.014)

BABIP- .338 (-.006)

2003:

AVG- .324 (+.027)

BABIP- .380 (+.042)

2004:

AVG- .292 (-.032)

BABIP- .317 (-.063)

2005:

AVG- .309 (+.017)

BABIP- .353 (+0.036)

2006:

AVG- .343 (+.034)

BABIP- .394 (+.041)

2007:

AVG- .322 (-.021)

BABIP- .368 (-.026)

2008:

AVG- .300 (-.022)

BABIP- .336 (-.032)

2009:

AVG- .334 (+.034)

BABIP- .369 (+.033)

 

Average changes:

AVG- .0274

BABIP- .0324

Difference- .005

 

I picked Jeter at random due to him having a long career and therefore a lot of data points, he wasn't a predetermined pick that I knew this worked for. So as you can see Jeter's change in batting average is heavily linked to his change in BABIP (and therefore his change in luck) and this is the case more often than not with any player you look at. So now back to Nix, his BABIP was .251, his average .224, his expected BABIP (which is calculated from factors such as Park factors, player speed/power and batted ball rates) was .289. Given what we've seen with Jeter I think it is reasonable to expect Nix to hit between .245-.275 (the lower end of the scale playing everyday due to ability vs. RHP and the high end of the scale if a platoon player) for as long as he can maintain this years speed/power and batted ball rates.

 

Defense:

I'm going by the most accurate readily available defensive metric, UZR.

Getz this year:

-5.8 UZR (or 5.8 runs worse than an average defensive 2B)

-5.4 UZR per 150 games

-5.3 RngR (range runs)

-5.0 UZR per 150 games for his career

Nix this year (at 2B):

+4.5 UZR (4.5 runs better than an average defensive 2B)

+11.3 UZR per 150 games

+4.3 RngR

+14.3 UZR per 150 games for his career

 

It's overwhelmingly in Nix' favour, he would have been worth 16.7 runs more than Getz this year on defense if left to play every day. Getz' offense was worth 7.3 park adjusted runs less than an average offensive 2B this year in 102 games, which over 150 games comes to 10.74 runs below average. Now just for proving my points sake, lets say Nix is twice as bad offensively as Getz (which is not even close to being correct as they were almost identical offensively this year), so if Nix' offense is worth 10.74 runs less than Getz' over a full year he's still worth about 6 runs more than Getz due to his vastly superior defensive ability, and therefore, hence point number 4.

 

Your whole argument for Getz being better than Nix is based solely on batting average, and as we've seen, batting average is heavily influenced by luck. If Nix gets a shot next year, his luck levels out and his BABIP sits near his xBABIP of .289 (probability, research, history tells us this is likely to happen) then I don't see any reason why Nix can't post a slash line in the region of .250/.350/.450 with outstanding defense, and you can be sure, that is better than anything Getz will ever be able to do.

 

[scenario]

Defense:

I'm going by the most accurate readily available defensive metric, UZR.

 

Not sure that single-year UZR provides information that is precise enough for valid comparisons of player skills or to make future projections.

 

For example, in 2009...

 

Paul Konerko = 1.9; Mark Texeira = -1.1

 

Scotty Pods in CF = .7; Torii Hunter = -4.4

 

Chris Getz = -2.8; Orlando Hudson = -3.8; Brian Roberts = -4.1

 

Ryan Theriot = 5.8; Adam Everett = 2.3 (Theriot, who can't carry Everett's jockstrap defensively, was also ranked ahead of Furcal)

 

Nick Swisher = 2.9 in right field; Alex Rios = -2.3; Nick Markakis = -5.5

 

AJ ahead of Joe Mauer, Dioner Navarro, and Yadier Molina...

 

Etc., etc....

Edited October 22, 2009 by scenario

[Chisoxfn]

Derek Jeter AVG vs. BABIP

1995:

AVG- .250

BABIP- .324

1996:

AVG- .314 (+.064 from previous year)

BABIP- .368 (+.044 from previous year)

1997:

AVG- .291 (-.023)

BABIP- .347 (-.021)

1998:

AVG- .324 (+.033)

BABIP- .377 (+.030)

1999:

AVG- .349 (+.025)

BABIP- .400 (+.023)

2000:

AVG- .339 (-.010)

BABIP- .388 (-.012)

2001:

AVG- .311 (-.028)

BABIP- .344 (-.044)

2002:

AVG- .297 (-.014)

BABIP- .338 (-.006)

2003:

AVG- .324 (+.027)

BABIP- .380 (+.042)

2004:

AVG- .292 (-.032)

BABIP- .317 (-.063)

2005:

AVG- .309 (+.017)

BABIP- .353 (+0.036)

2006:

AVG- .343 (+.034)

BABIP- .394 (+.041)

2007:

AVG- .322 (-.021)

BABIP- .368 (-.026)

2008:

AVG- .300 (-.022)

BABIP- .336 (-.032)

2009:

AVG- .334 (+.034)

BABIP- .369 (+.033)

 

Average changes:

AVG- .0274

BABIP- .0324

Difference- .005

 

I picked Jeter at random due to him having a long career and therefore a lot of data points, he wasn't a predetermined pick that I knew this worked for. So as you can see Jeter's change in batting average is heavily linked to his change in BABIP (and therefore his change in luck) and this is the case more often than not with any player you look at. So now back to Nix, his BABIP was .251, his average .224, his expected BABIP (which is calculated from factors such as Park factors, player speed/power and batted ball rates) was .289. Given what we've seen with Jeter I think it is reasonable to expect Nix to hit between .245-.275 (the lower end of the scale playing everyday due to ability vs. RHP and the high end of the scale if a platoon player) for as long as he can maintain this years speed/power and batted ball rates.

 

Defense:

I'm going by the most accurate readily available defensive metric, UZR.

Getz this year:

-5.8 UZR (or 5.8 runs worse than an average defensive 2B)

-5.4 UZR per 150 games

-5.3 RngR (range runs)

-5.0 UZR per 150 games for his career

Nix this year (at 2B):

+4.5 UZR (4.5 runs better than an average defensive 2B)

+11.3 UZR per 150 games

+4.3 RngR

+14.3 UZR per 150 games for his career

 

It's overwhelmingly in Nix' favour, he would have been worth 16.7 runs more than Getz this year on defense if left to play every day. Getz' offense was worth 7.3 park adjusted runs less than an average offensive 2B this year in 102 games, which over 150 games comes to 10.74 runs below average. Now just for proving my points sake, lets say Nix is twice as bad offensively as Getz (which is not even close to being correct as they were almost identical offensively this year), so if Nix' offense is worth 10.74 runs less than Getz' over a full year he's still worth about 6 runs more than Getz due to his vastly superior defensive ability, and therefore, hence point number 4.

 

Your whole argument for Getz being better than Nix is based solely on batting average, and as we've seen, batting average is heavily influenced by luck. If Nix gets a shot next year, his luck levels out and his BABIP sits near his xBABIP of .289 (probability, research, history tells us this is likely to happen) then I don't see any reason why Nix can't post a slash line in the region of .250/.350/.450 with outstanding defense, and you can be sure, that is better than anything Getz will ever be able to do.

I'm not going to get too much into it, but I think the luck invovled in BAPIP is an overplayed angle. If a guy makes contact, but not strong contact often, you'd see a low BAPIP and people call him unlucky. Yet some other batter might make a lot of contact and hit the ball hard most of the time because he has a good approach and doesn't jam himself often, goes the opposite way, etc.

 

BAPIP isn't all luck. Sure a small portion could be related to luck but there is a reason why certain batters have higher career BAPIP's than other batters. I'd rather correlate it by line-drive rates, etc.

 

Oh and the fact that Getz makes contact a whole lot more often than Nix also should help him have a higher average. I just find it very laughable that what you are projecting based upon Nix BAPIP is an average that is pretty much as good, if not better in some ranges than his career .261 average (which is driven up based upon the numbers he put up in his 2nd and 3rd season at AAA and those were numbers inflated from playing in Colorado Springs none-the-less).

 

Basically put, nothing about Nix history projects him to be a guy that will hit .275. Now could he make adjustments, absolutely, but you are using statistics as your basis and I flat out see nothing in the statistics to show this guy ever being a .275 hitter.

 

Getz on the other hand hit over .300 (well, I'm cheating and counting his .299 in his 2nd year at AA) at every level in the minors with exception to his first stop in AA. So he has tons of evidence of him hitting near .300 (assuming his approach works at the major league level and after his initial start, Getz put up a month or two span where he was hitting right around .300).

 

Injuries would be the big concern with Chris Getz. Getz also showed that his walk rate and strikeout rates remained relatively consistent between the minors and majors which again tells me he's got a good shot at duplicating his minor league numbers, which were quite superior to that of Jayson Nix.

[danman31]

I split this from the AFL thread to keep that thread a little cleaner and neater. Continue arguing over which utility 2nd baseman you want starting.

[balfanman]

It would appear that the Sox like Getz over Nix and that the issue between those two was settled last spring. Please corect me if I'm wrong but shouldn't this discussion be more about Nix and Lillibridge? Those two are the ones fighting for a utility role.

 

In the event that the Sox for some reason believe that C. J. Retherford can be the starting secondbaseman next year I would think that they would have Getz as the utility man and both Nix and Liliibridge are gone.

 

J. M. H. O.

Edited October 21, 2009 by balfanman

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It's overwhelmingly in Nix' favour, he would have been worth 16.7 runs more than Getz this year on defense if left to play every day. Getz' offense was worth 7.3 park adjusted runs less than an average offensive 2B this year in 102 games, which over 150 games comes to 10.74 runs below average. Now just for proving my points sake, lets say Nix is twice as bad offensively as Getz (which is not even close to being correct as they were almost identical offensively this year), so if Nix' offense is worth 10.74 runs less than Getz' over a full year he's still worth about 6 runs more than Getz due to his vastly superior defensive ability, and therefore, hence point number 4.

 

Your whole argument for Getz being better than Nix is based solely on batting average, and as we've seen, batting average is heavily influenced by luck. If Nix gets a shot next year, his luck levels out and his BABIP sits near his xBABIP of .289 (probability, research, history tells us this is likely to happen) then I don't see any reason why Nix can't post a slash line in the region of .250/.350/.450 with outstanding defense, and you can be sure, that is better than anything Getz will ever be able to do.

All this "wins" stuff and heavy statistical potato-mashing I don't get into at all. I try to judge a player by watching him play and by using real statistics to gauge performance while trying to keep in mind league and park factors. This BABIP stuff doesn't mean anything to me. I don't believe in luck. And I don't know why people would sit there and try to make an argument based on black cats and rabbit feet when you have a plethora of real statistics sitting right there in front of you. The UZR stuff also has its problems which Chisoxfn alluded to, but I will agree that Nix is the better defender. The difference between Getz and Nix however is not nearly as great as you believe.

 

My whole argument is NOT based SOLELY on batting average. Batting average is just one point, and it's a reason why Getz always has and IMO always will get on base more. I also pointed out how Nix sucks at making contact, how he can't hit RHP, how he has pretty much no power vs. RHP, and how he doesn't have the MiLB track record that Getz does.

 

You are thinking Nix could do a hell of a lot better if given full playing time, while I actually believe he'd do worse, since over the course of a season *he is going to face a lot more RHP than LHP* so his splits aren't going to be roughly equal as was the case in 2009.

 

About defensive value, let me ask you this, honestly. Who was the better 2B for us, Willie Harris or Tadahito Iguchi? I'll say Willie Harris was, and by a pretty wide margin, and I'll also say that Iguchi's offense faaaaar outweighed Harris' overall package. Getz doesn't have the power Iguchi has, but Getz is capable of hitting for a higher average, getting on at about the same rate or better, and also stealing quite a few bases while he's at it. Getz is furthermore capable of hitting 1 or 2 in a batting order because of his ability to play the fundamental game offensively, and that is not something Nix can do. Nix is a #9 hitter only.

 

Nix's "power" is blinding you people. Danny Richar IMO has as much power as Nix, in fact, I'd trade Nix straight up for Danny Richar right now because I think Danny is/was a better player. If you think that's crazy, look at their stats. Danny Richar is a better hitter. Danny makes more contact and has a much quicker bat.

 

I fail to see anything in Nix's history that says his 2009 offensive season was an aberration in any area other than power numbers, which are too high. Getz is the baseball player who knows his role, Nix is the bench guy who is there for PH duties and defense.

[lostfan]

I've chimed in on this before but I really just don't buy BABIP as meaningful at all when talking about offensive players. For pitchers yes, but for hitters, not so much. It's an elaborate, but generally useless post-hoc rationalization people have for explaining when a player has a down year, and has turned into a total myth in itself. Average isn't linked to BABIP. BABIP comes about as a result of a player making contact with the ball, which also determines his batting average. It doesn't take a genius to see that things aren't going well for a player when his average is a couple dozen points lower than it is, and BABIP is just re-stating what is completely obvious. Players with high batting averages (Ichrio, Mauer) will always have high BABIP, players with low batting averages (Swisher, Dunn) will have a low BABIP.

 

BABIP gets used as an excuse for players when they aren't hitting and as a dismissal when they're hot and then "luck" is brought into the equation. Again, you don't need to look at BABIP to know when they're slumping like Dye did or when they're red hot like Adam Jones was for the first few weeks of this season because that's been happening as long as baseball has existed and there are any number of reasons that could happen. There is nothing BABIP tells you that you can't see from looking at batting average. Take a look at those numbers for Jeter. Yes his BABIP changes year to year but generally speaking they're about 30 to 50 points higher than his average, which also changes, just as every other baseball player who has ever played since the game was invented has had happen. If you pick a random player you'll see the same kind of cushion, and the difference doesn't fluctuate that wildly. How so many people buy into this reverse logic of BABIP carrying the batting average I'll never know.

 

If I played in the major leagues my BABIP would be like .050 and I wonder if anyone would call me unlucky, when in fact I really just suck at baseball.

Edited October 21, 2009 by lostfan

[lostfan]

You are thinking Nix could do a hell of a lot better if given full playing time, while I actually believe he'd do worse, since over the course of a season *he is going to face a lot more RHP than LHP* so his splits aren't going to be roughly equal as was the case in 2009.

I love Nix, but he got favorable matchups and that skewed his numbers up. Not that there is anything wrong with this, because that's exactly how he should be used. I see no evidence that he will be able to suddenly start hitting RHP if he gets a full season of ABs. That will probably drop him below the Mendoza line actually, not push him up to .260 or whatever people are projecting for him. If the idea of him hitting .260 was plausible then there would be no question who the 2B was.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I love Nix, but he got favorable matchups and that skewed his numbers up. Not that there is anything wrong with this, because that's exactly how he should be used. I see no evidence that he will be able to suddenly start hitting RHP if he gets a full season of ABs. That will probably drop him below the Mendoza line actually, not push him up to .260 or whatever people are projecting for him. If the idea of him hitting .260 was plausible then there would be no question who the 2B was.

I agree with all of this.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I've chimed in on this before but I really just don't buy BABIP as meaningful at all when talking about offensive players. For pitchers yes, but for hitters, not so much. It's an elaborate, but generally useless post-hoc rationalization people have for explaining when a player has a down year, and has turned into a total myth in itself. Average isn't linked to BABIP. BABIP comes about as a result of a player making contact with the ball, which also determines his batting average. It doesn't take a genius to see that things aren't going well for a player when his average is a couple dozen points lower than it is, and BABIP is just re-stating what is completely obvious. Players with high batting averages (Ichrio, Mauer) will always have high BABIP, players with low batting averages (Swisher, Dunn) will have a low BABIP.

 

BABIP gets used as an excuse for players when they aren't hitting and as a dismissal when they're hot and then "luck" is brought into the equation. Again, you don't need to look at BABIP to know when they're slumping like Dye did or when they're red hot like Adam Jones was for the first few weeks of this season because that's been happening as long as baseball has existed and there are any number of reasons that could happen. Take a look at those numbers for Jeter. Yes his BABIP changes year to year but generally speaking they're about 30 to 50 points higher than his average, which also changes, just as every other baseball player who has ever played since the game was invented has had happen. If you pick a random player you'll see the same kind of cushion, and the difference doesn't fluctuate that wildly. How so many people buy into this reverse logic of BABIP carrying the batting average I'll never know.

 

If I played in the major leagues my BABIP would be like .050 and I wonder if anyone would call me unlucky, when in fact I really just suck at baseball.

Awesome.

f***ing.

Post.

 

[Dick Allen]

I don't understand the "luck" issue on BABIP either. If a guy throws me a slider away and I turn it over and ground out to short I'm unlucky, but if I take it the other way and double into the right center field gap, I'm lucky. It seems to me players do that a lot when they are slumping and I have never heard anyone call what Jermaine Dye went through the second half of the season as unlucky. I haven't looked, but as players get old and their skills erode, I would imagine their BABIP goes down as well. Wise and Lillibridge most likely have well below average BABIP. Does their "luck" have to change?

 

As for Jayson Nix, he can't hit right handers and he hit .175 at USCF no doubt trying to jack everything into the bullpen. Anyone who thinks more exposure to RHP would be anything but a disaster has blinders on.

Edited October 22, 2009 by Dick Allen