Jose Abreu Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) What numbers do you think Abreu will put up? It seems like when we signed him, many experts said he'll come right in rookie year and hit .280 with 35+ home runs. Now, however, those general expectations have changed to a 30 HR/ 85 RBI/ .225 AVG. In fact, I was in an MLB Trade Rumors chat with Steve Adams a few weeks ago, and he said he'd be surprised if Abreu hit over .245. Is this just a result of the hype dying down, or was Abreu really being that overrated when we signed him? Edited January 23, 2014 by Jose Abreu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Cespedes came over and hit .292/.861 OPS as a rookie. Struggled more last year but still hit .240 with his numbers really being knocked down by strikeouts. The consensus I saw was that Abreu had a much better approach and eye at the plate than Cespedes. If he hits .240 and strikes out 130+ times, yeah I'm probably going to be disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:16 PM) Cespedes came over and hit .292/.861 OPS as a rookie. Struggled more last year but still hit .240 with his numbers really being knocked down by strikeouts. The consensus I saw was that Abreu had a much better approach and eye at the plate than Cespedes. If he hits .240 and strikes out 130+ times, yeah I'm probably going to be disappointed. 130+? I've seen several ESPN/MLBTR guys label him as a 200 K guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 04:27 PM) 130+? I've seen several ESPN/MLBTR guys label him as a 200 K guy. If he is then yes, we seriously overrated and likely overspent on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:12 PM) What numbers do you think Abreu will put up? It seems like when we signed him, many experts said he'll come right in rookie year and hit .280 with 35+ home runs. Now, however, those general expectations have changed to a 30 HR/ 85 RBI/ .225 AVG. In fact, I was in an MLB Trade Rumors chat with Steve Adams a few weeks ago, and he said he'd be surprised if Abreu hit over .245. Is this just a result of the hype dying down, or was Abreu really being that overrated when we signed him? I wonder how many times Steve Adams has seen him play. I bet less than 10 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) I wonder how many times Steve Adams has seen him play. I bet less than 10 games. Nobody has really seen him play. I guess if you don't count those YT videos of him hitting a few bombs in the WBC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulstar Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah. If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshPR Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 04:40 PM) If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah. If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type. Awesome post, was thinking the same thing. That's why I pay no attentiin to the so called experts. Let it play out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black jack Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'm expecting a .320 batting average with 30+ homers and 100+ rbi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) If he was signed by the Yankees or Red Sox people would be predicting him being ROY, greatest cuban player ever, blah blah blah. If he's a 140+ K guy with no plate discipline, I sincerely doubt Hahn and the White Sox would have given him the contract they did. High K rates and no plate discipline is exactly the opposite of what Hahn has shown as GM thus far. I'm guessing the White Sox view him to turn into more of a Konerko during his prime type than a Mark Reynolds type. Basically. He'd be an MVP candidate if he was signed by the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, etc. I expect around .280/.350 and about 35 bombs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 (edited) Expect a learning process, not numbers. Numbers won't even matter next year. He's going to have to adjust to a lot of different things & the measure of his future success & ability will be in monitoring his month-to-month progression and seeing how he reacts to poor stretches/slumps, the early season cold, schedule length, etc. The Sox aren't paying for 2014 performance nor are they paying for any kind of finished product. The high K comments I am sure are all in relation to those "slide speed bat" comments when he was signed. I wouldn't worry about any of that. He's been worked out by multiple teams & the Sox think he's a pure hitter. You don't need otherwordly bat speed to hit for a high average. Edited January 12, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'll be very pleased with 150 games of .250/.350/.450, and I'd expect that he won't reach his ceiling the first year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilliamTell Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I'll be upset if he approaches 200 k's. We already have Adam Dunn for that unfortunate feat. 400 k's for both combined is gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) Abreu's worst strikeout year in Cuba was 20%, which is just a tick below MLB average. This was when he was 21 years old. In the four years since, he has struck out at a 10.9% rate. I would expect it to go up some now that he won't be getting intentionally walked in 10% of his at-bats. Alexei's and Dayan's K and BB numbers are not much different in the MLB than they were in Cuba, FWIW EDIT: Dunn has to strike out at about 29%-33% clip, depending on playing time, to strike out 200 times Edited January 13, 2014 by Jake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:50 PM) Abreu's worst strikeout year in Cuba was 2%, which is just a tick below MLB average. This was when he was 21 years old. In the four years since, he has struck out at a 10.9% rate. I would expect it to go up some now that he won't be getting intentionally walked in 10% of his at-bats. Alexei's and Dayan's K and BB numbers are not much different in the MLB than they were in Cuba, FWIW EDIT: Dunn has to strike out at about 29%-33% clip, depending on playing time, to strike out 200 times I'm guessing that's 20%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:56 PM) I'll be upset if he approaches 200 k's. We already have Adam Dunn for that unfortunate feat. 400 k's for both combined is gross. I think .260 with 20 HR. I think he starts slow at AAA or platoon at IB /DH in Majors. Then produces 2nd half of season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:54 PM) I'm guessing that's 20%? lol...yes...20% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 06:56 PM) I think .260 with 20 HR. I think he starts slow at AAA or platoon at IB /DH in Majors. Then produces 2nd half of season. Is a AAA start even an option? And don't start screaming Puig. We're paying Abreu far more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 07:06 PM) Is a AAA start even an option? And don't start screaming Puig. We're paying Abreu far more. He'd have to go 0 or 1 for the spring to start the season in AAA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marky Mark Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I think appropriate expectations for year 1 would be along the lines of .260 - .270 AVE 20-25 HR 75-85 RBIs I think we'll see a guy who will be crazy good at some points in the season and be super cold during other points. Be patient early. A little improvement in year 2 in each of those categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 01:12 PM) What numbers do you think I will put up? You, Mr. Abreu... Are a pure hitting beast. You're more than just a power guy. You'll hit at least .280 and will easily aproach 25 doubles and 25 bombs. I suspect however, that you'll far surpass those marks in what will be a fine rookie season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 09:04 PM) You, Mr. Abreu... Are a pure hitting beast. You're more than just a power guy. You'll hit at least .280 and will easily aproach 25 doubles and 25 bombs. I suspect however, that you'll far surpass those marks in what will be a fine rookie season. Thank you hi8is. Also, did you edit my quote? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beautox Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 290/360/520 25HR 9%BB 18%K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 QUOTE (beautox @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 10:05 PM) 290/360/520 25HR 9%BB 18%K Alfredo Despaigne? Is that your picture? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 (edited) I'm going to say.... .270 AVG, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 3.2 WAR And because every seems to care, I will say 165 Ks, which would put him somewhere around like 23-25% K-rate? Just to put these predictions in to perspective, here is where those would rank last year among 1B..... .270 AVG (13th) 28 HR (8th) 104 RBI (5th) 3.2 WAR (8th) 23-25% K rate (19th) That would pretty much make him a fringe top-10 1B next year, and his best OFFENSIVE comparison would have been Prince Fielder. Now hopefully he plays better defense than Prince, so he will have a WAR higher than Prince's 2.2, and more like Eric Hosmer's 3.1. I'd take that in a rookie season 8 days of the week. Edited January 13, 2014 by Chilihead90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.