I don’t doubt Biden has a 3-5 point lead, nationally.
But it still comes down to those same 8-10 battleground states.
GOP, at least for now...has a significant enthusiasm advantage on their side. Dems have demographics. I am not sure how many, though...are 100% confident he’s up to the job, or not more concerned about the VP choice. They believe or hope he will partially restore America’s position internationally, stabilize markets, not rock the boat and bring in experts to surround himself with.
That said, with depressed turnout possible due to coronavirus concerns lingering, enthusiasm does matter.
Don’t underestimate Trump in the debates, either. Biden stumbles when under heavy duress or ad libbing. When Trump does that, it’s refreshing candor and sticking it to the man or any party you project a particular grievance upon.