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Everything posted by wrathofhahn
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I dont root for players I root for the team. The team isnt even going to win 50 games it can't afford to have untouchable "fan favorites" in trades. Futhermore Burger is a no defense 1B/DH who doesn't have a spot on the team when everyone is healthy and is not going to replicate his ISO numbers moving forward without adjusting his approach at the plate. In summary, we sold high by getting a top 100 prospect for a guy who will be 28 next season, doesn't have a position, doesn't have an obvious spot on the roster, and whose current numbers are unsustainable in the long run. Judging it as a strict baseball move it was a no brainer. Anyone who does get that is free to root for the Marlins.
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If he didn't have a hit and walk in his first game would you have been fine with the trade? I refuse to live game to game or series to series with Burger. Call me after the season and if he has a ton of walks with the Marlins Ill say well maybe it's time to revise how we think about Burger heading into next season
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I don't think you can expect or be worried that happens. Burger will be 28 at the start of next year. If you are worried about every non-obp, non-avg, tower power type 1B/DH turning into something then your 40 man roster would be full of Sheets and Palka types. Right now what Burger is doesn't project much better than replacement level moving forward. If the Marlins can unlock something hidden in him you tip your cap to them but you always take the top 100 prospect when offered and move on. This isn't even really a controversial trade.
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I would have been fine keeping Middleton if he still had control considering what seems to be a weak return but he had to be moved. If Carela is all we could get back then that is just the reality of things. I am fine with paying relievers in FA if necessary for a year it's these multi year deals that kill us. Especially when you have gaping position holes and are signing guys like Laury for 2B it should be obvious to everyone it makes a heck of a lot more sense to take that extra 10-15M and put it towards an elite to very good 2B. There are always teams looking to sell ML if you need one at the deadline
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Not going to hate him he likely could have taken a medical retirement Probably happened because they stressed the arm too much after such a long layoff
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Errors are a terrible way to measure defense for multiple reasons for one it's completely subjective to the scorer and no two scorers are the same. Two because Moncada has much more range he gets to more ground-balls and creates more opportunities for himself to make a mistake fielding the ball. More importantly while it's important to measure mistakes the amount of mistakes an infielder makes in of itself doesn't make a good or even bad defender. What makes a good defender is how often they record a PO relative to their peers on any given play. If the Marlins want to play him at 3B all the more power to them. Note: Not defending Moncada
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via fangraphs both players career stats Per 1000 innings at 3B Burger -10 DRS Moncada -0.5 DRS --------------------- Uzr/150 at 3B Burger -5.9 Moncada 5.1 ------------------- Range above average per 1000 innings measured in runs at 3B Burger -3.6 Moncada 3.1 ------------ Note: Not defending Moncada just stating facts
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Dunn had a career BB% rate of 15.8. Burger has career BB% rate of 6.6 and 6.8 this year. Per 650 PA Dunn averaged 104 walks over his career. Burger averages 43. They are two totally different players. He is more J.P. Arencibia or Evan Gattis with the bat. The problem with Burger is he doesn't play a premium position or 3B well.
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It's never really worth extending relievers but yeah he has a live arm and his metrics are better than the results. But hey he can always be signed in free agency so there is that. Personally even getting a top 30 organizational prospect for him is good lets face it our infield defense has killed much of our reliever values people say Bummer and Middleton are unlucky but I kind of hate that phrase because it implies events just happened and nothing could have been done about it. It may have been outside of their control but it certainly wasn't outside the organizations control when they put this atrocious infield together.
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I am going to say this but I don't believe Burger is a good offensive player. Could the Marlins fix his approach at the plate and he develop into one of course there are scattered stories of guys like Jose Bautista figuring it out in their latter half of their careers. But Burger will be 28 next year. There is a much better chance the player we have saw this year with the exception of a handful of games is who he is with the exception of his ISO which is going to come back down to earth. And when it does he figures to fall into that .725 ish to .750 ish OPS range. What is that worth to you as a 1B/DH? If he could play 3B at a high level it would be another story because you could live with his all or nothing approach but when it comes to 1B/DH its not hard to find .750+ OPS guys. It may have been hard over the years for us but the average ops for a first baseman right now is .711 OPS for a DH is .742. Lets talk a year from now because if Burger is still having a .800+ OPS not getting on base, not hitting for an average and has a .300+ ISO if I'm still around I'll send a picture of me eating my hat.
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From July 1 to 26 he played 19 games his batting average was .191, .267 OBP, .471 SLG and .737 OPS. Four games at the end of month where he walked 5 times and people are using that to try to pretend he is a different hitter than what he has shown all season. Im sorry but in 162 game season you can take 4-5 games from any players season and take them to tell whatever you want. If the Marlins are taking basically one series into account into why they are willing to trade a top 100 prospect for a no defense. No avg. No obp. Tower power 1B/DH then they are morons and we'd be fools to not take advantage of their idiocy.
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Clevinger has pitched well enough and still has good stuff he is likely to get a multi year offer in free agency. I would be shocked if he exorcised his option it just makes almost no sense.
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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Clevinger is extended that is the only reason to keep him past the deadline is if they are engaged in talks and close to agreement on an extension. If not it is a massive mistake by Hahn he has pitched well he could have netted us a decent return, Grandal is easy to understand he had no value and if you are going to have to eat his deal you might as well just have him finish out the year since there is noone ready to take his spot. Ditto for Anderson. Dejong went for a song. Anderson has similar value at this point so it makes sense to hold onto him if he bounces back he can always be moved in the offseason or just kept on his option. I was in favor of moving him but clearly the demand wasn't there. Cease doesn't make sense to move if the FO plans to retool and spend money next year.
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Grade Rick Hahn's Trade Deadline Performance
wrathofhahn replied to South Side Hit Men's topic in Pale Hose Talk
The one knock I have on him is he didn't move Mike Clevinger I find it hard to believe we couldn't get something of value for him -
The main problem with this lineup is there is no middle class either the players are hitting well or not at all. That needs to change you can't have as many guys the sox do 7 with below .700 ops and above 150 PA and expect to win. Not to mention the bullpen has been mostly a disaster too and the infield defense is a mess. It's not a homerun problem its a hitting problem period
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Could be. Either way it's Middleton I wasnt expecting a whole lot for him anyways.
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I very much doubt he averages 2WAR over the next five years. Both Streamer and Zips in season calculations has his value between 0.2 WAR and 0.4 WAR this year The reality is what he is doing currently isnt sustainable. Fan favorite aside this was a trade that had to be made wish him the best but he's gone and we made the correct call/bet by trading him. if he somehow corrects his approach at the plate and manages to sustain his success all the more power to him but his iso numbers right now are higher than the career ISO of Schwaber, Ohtani, and Alonso he is going to come down to earth at some point and unless his plate discipline and ability to put balls in play improve it isn't going to be pretty
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Yeah for me that is a red flag because there is a major difference between throwing SL and CH for swinging strikes in the ML vs MLB working off an average FB By the sounds of things he maybe someone who needs to move to the bullpen to see if he can gain a cpl of miles on his fastball
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I really think Burger will be a .725 ish OPS at best player moving forward unless he drastically improves his plate discipline. You couple that with his bad defense at 3rd and I don't get the reluctance doing the deal. It reminds me when Avisaíl García hit .330 in 2017 every Sox fan knew his BABIP wasn't sustainable but noone wanted to move him. Well the next year his value completely cratered. I think funny enough he was 26 or 27 then too. Here is the thing can Burger develop a better approach at age 28+ sure but it's pretty rare. I'll take my chances on the frontline pitching prospect instead. Because if you hit on him you have a frontline starter for the next 6-7 years. If you correct Burger approach at the plate you at best have a good hitting 1B/DH valuable but not in the same category. We also have Vaughn and Eloy two guys who approaches at the plate and bat profiles project out to have much longer sustained careers in MLB. As far as I'm concerned we really didn't lose anything in the deal because Burger was not a longterm answer at 3rd and there isn't a spot at 1B and/or DH for him,
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Grade Rick Hahn's Trade Deadline Performance
wrathofhahn replied to South Side Hit Men's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Grandal and Anderson have no value. He should have moved them earlier but it is what it is. Beni I would have moved but he has term to him not sure teams were ready to commit to a LF with term when rental guys were available like Teoscar -
Grade Rick Hahn's Trade Deadline Performance
wrathofhahn replied to South Side Hit Men's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Much of this was him getting out of mistakes of his own making but for me it's an easy A. I also have zero confidence in his ability to use the savings in salary properly in FA but just evaluating it separately from Hahn performance as a whole all the trades were pretty much homeruns. -
Look I never wanted Vaughn I thought it was a mistake to draft him. However, I don't really get the room for growth argument for Burger. He's 27. I think Vaughn baseline hitting skills and approach at the plate give him a much better chance at longterm success at the MLB level. Unless the argument his contact and walk numbers are so bad that he doesn't have to improve much to be better. However, I very much doubt he continues his .313 iso slugging numbers either. I mean you look at Pete Alonso and he's averaged 45 homeruns per 162 games over his career. He has a career .276 iso percentage and he couples that with a much more selective professional approach at the plate. The way Burger is currently playing right now longterm just isn't sustainable.
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Sox acquire Luis Patino from Rays for cash
wrathofhahn replied to baseball_gal_aly's topic in Pale Hose Talk
If the stuff is still there this is a tremendous move. These are exactly the type of moves Hahn should be making every year instead of investing tens of million into the bullpen -
He is a much better hitter. I get it Burger is a fan favorite but this trade is a homerun