wrathofhahn

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 28, 2018 -> 02:48 AM) Well, the risk is certainly mitigated going just 3 or possibly 4 years. It's something the medical staff would have to assess carefully, just as they theoretically would have done when they signed Adolfo at the top of his intl class (maybe #2 to Eloy?) or drafted Burger at his size instead of a number of other options. Or taking a pitcher like McClanahan who has already gone through 1 TJ surgery, knowing that 2 is pretty much a death sentence. If he was 32 or 33 instead of 29, I'd agree with you. Just like a TJ surgery rehab takes a full 18 months to be back to form, knee surgeries can often take similar amounts of time (especially for bigger athletes) to get back to 100%. Moustakas was also hurting last year in the 2nd half and tried to play through it, probably because he was more concerned with his final numbers on the offensive side. PTAC has to decide this one, HAHA... Yeah, all I'm saying you don't really mess around when it comes with the knees. It kind of reminds me of Troy Glaus who you thought was going to be this great 40 HR guy but ended up retiring at 33 partly due to shoulder problems but mainly because of his knees. It can end that fast for some guys.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 07:57 PM) Here's the problem. Moustakas pre-2015 was a completely different hitter. Unless you accept that hitters can change, then you're stuck compiling all his career numbers before that time and profiling him as "average." We could do the same with Avi, Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso. Obviously, such a high draft pick has/had a tremendous amount of talent/ability, or he wouldn't have been selected so high. If you think he's a 2 WAR guy going forward, it's all based on his pre-2015 numbers and last year's 1.8. Here's why that's a huge mistake: 1) He made a concerted effort to go to the opposite direction and really raised his overall offensive numbers by using all fields, beginning in that 2015 season. Before that, he was not very good and back and forth...or at least on the verge of being sent down. 2) He was also trending in the exact same direction (high 3's, low 4's) WAR-wise in 2016 before his injury. 3) If you don't believe that a 29 year-old still close to the prime of his athletic shelf life can improve the second year back from an injury on defense, I don't know what to say...if you want me to cite the articles, I'm happy to link them again, the last 4-6 weeks of 2017 he was dealing with leg issues and that affected him as well as the injury recovery/rehab year. 4) Last year's Royals didn't buy into the team concept like the 2013-2016 teams did...they basically were like the 2006-2016 White Sox, lots of talented players pretty much doing their own thing at the plate instead of buying into the team concept. Moustakas got away from spraying the ball all over the field and became pull happy in an attempt to set himself up for his FA due to the fact that the writing was on the wall about the team going anywhere, he became a "selfish" player again because he knew the Royals weren't going to be able to keep him, Hosmer or Cain. 5) So if you think his ceiling is now a 2 WAR 3B, I'll happily take that bet that he averages 3 the next three seasons...and you can have the 2. That's worth more than $7-10 million per season. I constantly hear that it's worth closer to $20 million per year. If his defense bounces back (we can argue both sides here), then he's clearly a 3-4 WAR guy. If not, he's closer to 2 or 2.5. There's a risk there. But, in the right situation, where he becomes one of the long-term team leaders and role models...like he was in KC, then he can show the younger players how to play together as a team and do the little things to win, because he's already been there and done that, in our own division, multiple playoff series, 2 World Series, etc. Frazier never really felt 100% comfortable in the AL, at least that was my perception. My question is less about his defense and more whether he's interested in helping a rebuilding team win again or inserting himself in an "immediately competitive" environment right away. Obviously, money considerations (see Hosmer) will be 90-95% of that calculation, especially with Boras as his agent. 6) So yes, Frazier and Yolmer were technically 2 WAR players last year, but the odds of Moustakas being a solid all-around contributor and putting up a 3-4 WAR (especially in an even more hitter-friendly park than Kauffman) are MUCH MUCH GREATER than Yolmer Sanchez or Matt Davidson ever doing the same thing. And now we have the Burger setback to consider as well in projecting into the future... He had a serious knee injury so yes unless he proves to me otherwise I don't think he'll ever be the same on defense. Going off previous years he should have had a 4.1 rngr (range runs aka ability to get to balls) instead it was negative 5.4 Another indication is on the offensive side his Bsr was -5.4 and pre 2017 he pretty much always was in the -2 Bsr range or less other then an outlier 2015 season. I think projecting him to be the same defensive player he was pre knee injury is pretty unfair. There was no evidence last season of him getting back to that place and it's a pretty serious injury to come back to begin with from ask Boone it basically ended his career along with Sizemore his knee will also always sort of be a concern moving forward particularly since it's on his plant foot on throws and in the batters box. It's part of the reason along with age I'm reluctant to go five years.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 02:52 PM) That actually sounds pretty easy to find. For instance, the white sox had 2 of them. It's not hard to find which is why I would only want Moustakas on my/whitesox terms. I wouldn't have been opposed to say for example trading for Solarte. I'm just not convinced Sanchez can hit enough for the spot. Zips for example is projecting him to have a .684 OPS next year.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 12:16 PM) Are there any MLB position players who came back from this and were productive? I mean one of the sort of blessings for this type of injury in Burger case he wasn't guy who was overly reliant on his speed tool to begin with. One thing you sort of hope is he uses the time off to get himself in better shape.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 11:06 AM) If someone signed Justin Turner when he was 29 to a 4 year/$48 million contract, everyone would be calling for that GM's head. Moustakas was a top prospect who really struggled offensively for years. Seemed to find himself. His OBP was over .340 in 2015. Then gets hurt, and became a total pull guy less patience during his free agent year, perhaps because HRs generally pay. It wouldn't surprise me if his OBP increases a bit. Maybe not to .350, but maybe.330/.335. I'd like to think moving from Kaufmann to GRF would help him, but we have tried to rely on that recently, and it hasn't exactly worked. I have no idea what they would agree to, but I do think there is a price where saying no is being very shortsided. There is that small possibility but you can't pay him on hoping he will somehow improve in his 30's you have to deal with what he is now. I do agree I'd rather sign Moose for 4 then commit to Machado to 10.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 10:50 AM) Age 33, turning 34 with a few weeks left in 2022..would be the end of five year deal. Cozart is closer to Frazier in age than Moustakas...we always say how rare FA’s under 30 are these days, hence all the crazy interest in Harper, Machado and Arenado. Cozart though is coming off his best year. We have no idea how Moustakas is going to age through his 30's actually if you look at sort of his body type and bat profile (low OBP + power) chances are the answer is not well.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 27, 2018 -> 09:35 AM) https://www.mlb.com/news/projected-2018-lin...ams/c-266895088 Projected lineups/rotations for all 30 teams as of today Leury, LF Moncada, 2B Abreu, 1B Avi Garcia, RF Delmonico, DH Castillo, C Anderson, SS Engel, CF Sanchez, 3B That would leave Davidson, Saladino, Narvaez as bench... Noticed Clayton Richard as #1 for Pads, haha. No starting spot for Zobrist or Happ...but one has to start against RHP. Dodgers still with outfield logjam. Makes sense but also shows you why we are looking for a real DH. If you have Delmonico at LF. Garcia in CF. That essentially means you are replacing Engels production with a DH. I also sort of have questions about Sanchezs bat could be a real sore spot moving forward

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 26, 2018 -> 06:01 PM) Do you think that he would accept an offer like that? Cozart accepted 3/38 and was coming off a much better year. All he's been getting is one year offers according to reports. So yeah I think he would but not being a fly on the wall I don't know for sure his thinking. Particularly the 4 year deal with an opt out after year two. Of course a three year deal would be ideal. We have him until age 33 after that you probably don't want him anyways. All these people in this thread saying it has to be a five year deal why is it crucial we have him through age 34 and 35?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 26, 2018 -> 05:45 PM) I'm going to go "out on a limb" here and predict that the Sox will sign Moustakas, and that it will be 5 years. If they were seriously considering it, before this injury to Burger, it now seems very likely. It just makes too much sense, and shouldn't completely rule out trying to sign Machado, though I don't see the Sox winning that bidding war. Five years is stupid there is no reason to offer him that kind of length. I'd do 3/33 or possibly 4/42 backloaded with an opt out after two. Who are we bidding against?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 26, 2018 -> 01:17 PM) I mentioned this several weeks ago, but I question whether Machado would really be worth what he is likely to get paid. The argument is that his OBP is not, nor has it ever been, so far in his career, at a level that justifies $35 Million per year, on a 10 year contract. He is very young, so he may improve his OBP this season, which could change the equation. Guys like Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Joey Votto and Mike Trout have had OBP's of .400 plus, since their early 20's. Machado has yet to demonstrate the ability to do that. Something else, which no one ever mentions is that a player who gets paid that much money could have an adverse effect upon the rest of the team. It's only natural for players to compare themselves to other players, in terms of their own production and what they get paid. That becomes most important, when it comes time to negotiate a new contract. If a team is going to pay one player that much more than any of the rest of its roster, he better demonstrate that he deserves it. We are all entitled to our opinion, and if you disagree, please consider these thoughts just things to think about. I could be persuaded to change my opinion, but that's just my perspective. Hey, when a team is considering spending that kind of money, it behooves them to think about everything. I think he realizes that which is why he's trying to transition to SS. Last year he was essentially a 4 WAR player if he did that again at 3B he can kiss 300 milllion goodbye. He'll he can kiss 200 million goodbye. If he proves he can play SS however he knows teams will pay a premium regardless if he has a down year Bringing it back to Moustakas he's a 2 WAR to 2.5 WAR player he clearly doesn't have the upside defensive wise but is the question would I rather spend 3/33 on Moustakas bandaid 3B for 3 years and sort of see where we are at in 2020 well that would be preferable.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 08:29 PM) He is absolutely right. The problem is that tanking has been proven to be one of the best paths to a championship, so teams and fans have embraced it. While it sucks for the fans during the tanking, nobody has any regrets if it ends in success. Not really seeing who you get back and watching the kids grow is a hell of alot more exciting then watching a team going nowhere

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 04:13 PM) Plug the holes..when you're sure they're the right holes to plug. Treat our franchise like a blown tire right now; you don't just start applying patches to areas that you think look weird, you check for the location of the hole first before you plug it. I have pretty sure 3B is going to be a hole for awhile if not plugged

QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 01:29 PM) The goal isn't to plug holes, it's to win championships. If this move won't help accomplish that, then why bother doing it? Because championship teams also plug holes. If it's a three year deal on a reasonable AAV something like 3/33 I'd do it

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 25, 2018 -> 02:10 PM) So he’s guaranteed 500K more than we guaranteed Derek Holland last off-season. That hurts for him. Meh no loss I'd rather have Cargo anyways.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 10:32 PM) It is the biggest flaw in the rebuild. If you are signing top free agents 1-2 years after partially tearing down the roster then it wasn't a rebuild to begin with.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 04:08 PM) Your arguments in this thread have been so purposely misleading just because you don't like Moustakas. Don't worry the Sox aren't going to sign him, but paying someone $60 million over 5 years, and I doubt the Sox would give him 5 years, probably 4 at most, (considering Heyman said all he has is several one year offers) and paying someone $43 million this year and next, is, in reality, a lot closer than the 50% difference you are exaggerating again. I'm not willing to sign him for one year due to pick considerations

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 01:26 PM) Yeah, I’d rather go with a guy like Morrison. More upside and a non-zero chance he can be a cheap, interim solution at DH while we wait for Sheets/Burger or see what we have in Nicky. I don't know if I necessarily agree with this. Morrison has a career ops of .741 and OPS+ of 104 prior to last year thats 7 years of prior data. Prior to last year Cargo has a career ops of .868 and OPS+ of 119. Do you make the bet that Morrison figured it out or do you go with the previous 7 years data. Is Cargo washed up at 32 or do you bet 9 years of overall solid hitting prior to last year. It's an interesting discussion point.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:50 PM) It will pare itself down. We still need to be trying to bring talent into the organization. It also doesn't make much sense to hit SS or CF at DH just because you don't have roster space

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:10 PM) He sucks now. His home/away splits were dreadful last year and average to below average every season since 2013. And we think this will improve with him being another year older and removing him from Coors/NL? Why bother? Complete waste of a roster spot in 2018. Most players will hit better at home for a variety of reasons unrelated to ballpark and even after accounting for the park factor as OPS+ does he's been a well above average hitter. I can understand the sort reluctance if this was 2014 and he was demanding a 100 plus million dollar deal. Hell I remember when the Holliday signing happened his splits weren't great either and he was traded to Oakland and just hit OK. So everyone said see it was the ball park. He did just fine. Some of the same concerns were made about Fowler less of them then in Holliday case but still I understood the reluctance. Here though we are talking about a one year pillow deal. He's only 32. Prior to his down season last year his previous two seasons he averaged an OPS of 114 and has a career ops+ of 116. Which just looking at the OPS+ last year for the Sox thats probably in the .810 to .820 range. Moustaskas who everyone wants to sign for five years has a career ops+ of 96. His best three years combined for OPS+ of 117

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:53 AM) And you have Leury Garcia. The Sox have 11 OF on their 40 man. GarGo can DH, but it's also a spot to rotate some guys in for major league ABs. There is more downside than CarGo just sucking or being average. I mean at some point we are going to have to make moves. Playing CF's at DH is not a solution for a OF roster crunch. Ideally we move both Garcias by the deadline and sort of see what we have with the other guys.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:33 AM) So if everything goes right, a previously pretty highly rated prospect who was struggling at the time of the trade. Yep pretty much. There is no reason to not sign him. He'd basically be replacing Davidson at DH he won't be blocking anyone next year.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:02 AM) The guy has pretty much been average to bad for 4 years, and is streaky as hell. What, realistically would you get on a flip for him if everything goes right? Probably something along the lines of what Beltran went for with the Rangers depends on how well he is hitting at the time of deal. Of course such a return is wholly dependent on if/how he rebounds and what he signs here for (1 year deal, 2 year deal) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/indi...-as-likely.html

Cargo checks so many boxes for us. Perfect fit. He wasn't offered a QO so no pick.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 01:37 AM) They managed to get Stras to sign an extension, another Boras guy. It’s likely he’ll test free agency, but hardly a guarantee. Pretty much a guarantee we are talking less then a handful I can't remember another guy other then Stras.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:15 AM) A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon. If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape. We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years. Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high. Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020. The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon... The Nats can do that as much as they want but Rendon is boras guy so he'll test fa