wrathofhahn

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 01:26 PM) Yeah, I’d rather go with a guy like Morrison. More upside and a non-zero chance he can be a cheap, interim solution at DH while we wait for Sheets/Burger or see what we have in Nicky. I don't know if I necessarily agree with this. Morrison has a career ops of .741 and OPS+ of 104 prior to last year thats 7 years of prior data. Prior to last year Cargo has a career ops of .868 and OPS+ of 119. Do you make the bet that Morrison figured it out or do you go with the previous 7 years data. Is Cargo washed up at 32 or do you bet 9 years of overall solid hitting prior to last year. It's an interesting discussion point.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:50 PM) It will pare itself down. We still need to be trying to bring talent into the organization. It also doesn't make much sense to hit SS or CF at DH just because you don't have roster space

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:10 PM) He sucks now. His home/away splits were dreadful last year and average to below average every season since 2013. And we think this will improve with him being another year older and removing him from Coors/NL? Why bother? Complete waste of a roster spot in 2018. Most players will hit better at home for a variety of reasons unrelated to ballpark and even after accounting for the park factor as OPS+ does he's been a well above average hitter. I can understand the sort reluctance if this was 2014 and he was demanding a 100 plus million dollar deal. Hell I remember when the Holliday signing happened his splits weren't great either and he was traded to Oakland and just hit OK. So everyone said see it was the ball park. He did just fine. Some of the same concerns were made about Fowler less of them then in Holliday case but still I understood the reluctance. Here though we are talking about a one year pillow deal. He's only 32. Prior to his down season last year his previous two seasons he averaged an OPS of 114 and has a career ops+ of 116. Which just looking at the OPS+ last year for the Sox thats probably in the .810 to .820 range. Moustaskas who everyone wants to sign for five years has a career ops+ of 96. His best three years combined for OPS+ of 117

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:53 AM) And you have Leury Garcia. The Sox have 11 OF on their 40 man. GarGo can DH, but it's also a spot to rotate some guys in for major league ABs. There is more downside than CarGo just sucking or being average. I mean at some point we are going to have to make moves. Playing CF's at DH is not a solution for a OF roster crunch. Ideally we move both Garcias by the deadline and sort of see what we have with the other guys.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:33 AM) So if everything goes right, a previously pretty highly rated prospect who was struggling at the time of the trade. Yep pretty much. There is no reason to not sign him. He'd basically be replacing Davidson at DH he won't be blocking anyone next year.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 11:02 AM) The guy has pretty much been average to bad for 4 years, and is streaky as hell. What, realistically would you get on a flip for him if everything goes right? Probably something along the lines of what Beltran went for with the Rangers depends on how well he is hitting at the time of deal. Of course such a return is wholly dependent on if/how he rebounds and what he signs here for (1 year deal, 2 year deal) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/indi...-as-likely.html

Cargo checks so many boxes for us. Perfect fit. He wasn't offered a QO so no pick.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 01:37 AM) They managed to get Stras to sign an extension, another Boras guy. It’s likely he’ll test free agency, but hardly a guarantee. Pretty much a guarantee we are talking less then a handful I can't remember another guy other then Stras.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 23, 2018 -> 12:15 AM) A lot depends on Anderson and Rodon. If Moncada, Jimenez and Robert each fulfilled their potential, then we’re in really good shape. We still have concerns about catcher and 3B, and aren’t sure what to do with Abreu and Garcia...extending either will be another chunk of change, with Abreu maybe $65 million for three years. Realistically, going forward they have to look at 3b, catcher, an elite closer and a veteran #2 starting pitcher, because the odds of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Fulmer/Dunning all holding up as reliable starters isn’t that high. Sure, maybe we get that closer internally (Cease?)...maybe Collins develops as predicted when we drafted him, but a LOT of things have to go right to not have 3-4 critical roster issues heading into 2020. The Nats are likely to lose Harper, they will put everything they’ve got into retaining Rendon... The Nats can do that as much as they want but Rendon is boras guy so he'll test fa

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:13 PM) We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time. The problem with Moose is he doesn't walk and his all or nothing approach generates a ton of weak contact. Take a look at his batted ball data between 16-18% of the balls put into play are infield popups. 21% of the contact of balls put in play was classified as soft last season. 32% was classified as hard contact. Compare that BB data with Abreu who also doesn't walk. 7.1% of his batted balls were IFB. 16% of his the balls he put into play were classified as with soft contact. 41% hard contact. That isn't something a ballpark is going to fix. He's also a terrible baserunner purely a station to station guy. He did hit better away from kaufman last season but his career splits (non SSS) are pretty equal. I dunno five years of Moose would scare me to death not only because of you are taking someone wholly reliant on his bat speed and BA to generate value (he doesn't) and hoping the bottom doesn't fall out when he gets older but also I don't like committing more then three years to 2 WAR-ish players. It only brings trouble when it comes to decline (remember players over 30 decline by average 0.5 WAR a year)

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:18 AM) Which is why he’s still on the open market. Agreed I don't want to give him five years either. The tricky part with Moose is you have to have a contract long enough with enough money to satisfy Boras while also a contract longer then one to justify giving up the pick. I'd do three years for slightly less money then Cozart 3/34 I honestly don't want to go 4 or 5 years with Moose. I think some team probably beats that but for me the only way Moose makes remote sense for the Sox is on their terms. He probably makes more sense to a club who have already given a pick for a FA like the Phillies.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 12:46 AM) That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs. The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:51 PM) Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent? Player: A. B. Age: 32. 29 BB%: 14.4%. 5.7% K%: 21.7%. 15.7% ISO: .215. .249 OBP: .344. .314 OPS: .772. .835 wRC+: 108. 114 UZR/ 150: 9.7. -3.6 WAR: 3.0. 2.2 12-16 aWAR: 3.5. 2.2 Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Standard guesswork is that on average hitters decline by around 0.5 WAR after 30. Zips projects him to have a 5.6 WAR next year so it isn't outlandish. The problem is of course this is guesswork and there is a ton of variation that goes into that 0.5 figure and the deeper into the 30's you go the steeper the decline tends to be. Which is why teams are so reluctant to give older players that kind of length to begin with because they want to be able to walk away. No way I would be willing to commit five years to Donaldson because what if you are wrong and the bottom falls out for the last three years. No thanks.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 02:39 AM) With the A's or some s***. If he hits well why would you move him he's under control until at least 2024. Abreu and Avi are free agents in two years and DH is still open there are spots if he can hit if he can't he's worthless so who cares.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:42 PM) We wouldn't be able to get comp picks. New CBA allows each player to be given a QO once in their career. Moustakas' was this year, so he can't be offered it again. Agreed a pillow contract accomplishes nothing. Plus I don't really see Boras signing off on a longterm way below market deal. I'd probably be willing to do a Cozart type deal but remember Cozart had 5 WAR last year. He'd still be overpaid at 3/38 in my opinion and it's hard to see Boras accepting that considering where he set the market

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:16 PM) Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster. 2 isn't average it's an average starter and I assume they are talking about the median not the mode.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:59 PM) Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A. Because signing Machado is a win now move and right now the Sox aren't ready to win. Reality check last years team lost 95 games. This year the team at best projected to win in the low 70's. That means likely 85+ losses. The Orioles lose 87 games games last year WITH Machado. One player will not turn around the franchise and it makes very little sense to commit to Machado when you don't know what you have at the ML level. Will Machado be willing to sit and wait if a couple of our prospects don't pan out and the rebuild is longer then Hahn intended. Or will be forced to continue to go for it and throw bad money after good. You want to see what that looks like well take a look at the Orioles

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:45 PM) I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present. We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild. You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster. Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals.

The problem with Moose is he has the pick attached so signing him to a pillow contract doesn't work. I don't think the FO want longterm resources tied into him considering realistically his age and where the club is from a competitive stand point. His best bet is probably to return to the Royals and come back next year with no pick attached when more clubs are prepared to spend. Problem is Moore has been sending out smoke signals for months he doesn't want him back. They want the pick. It's a tough spot no obvious need for a contender and he costs teams a pick. Boras will have to work overtime on this one. The only team that sort of stands out is the Phillies Franco was awful last year and they signed Santana so they won't lose a pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 08:25 PM) Cardinals have Gyorko... Rosters are pretty much set around the league at corner hard to see the spots where he could conceivably be an upgrade. Maybe, the Phillies. The Sox. The Royals. Not going to count out Boras but the Yankee trade hurts his market no obvious need among any of the contenders

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 07:48 PM) Here we go again Ugh this wasn't my intention think I need to take a break from the board every thread I make gets side tracked.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 08:41 PM) They work out fine for a team if they take them for what they are. JDM 2 best seasons should be the first 2.if he opts out, it means the Red Sox got a pretty good deal the first 2 years. If they weren’t willing to go more than 5 years now, why, in essence, would they 2years from now? Teams letting the opt out go usually are pretty happy they did. Teams they re sign the opt out to a longer contract usually regret it. If he has 2 great years, be happy and let him walk. Let someone else pay for the decline. It is great for players, as if they play well enough they will get even more. But if teams are smart, it could be a good deal for them as well. You do realize it's not that simple right? If he plays well and opts out the Redsox maybe happy they paid extra (probably about 10 million based on what EE got last year) but got their LF/DH for two years. The problem is baseball is not that simple and tidy. He could play poorly or be injured for the first year he then walks away like a boss with most of his money paid upfront. Or he could have a down year or be injured for two years then opt out in year three. Or he could be a disappointment entirely and opt in for the entire duration. The point is regardless of what happens JDM is covered and will come out ahead. The redsox absorbed a terrible amount of risk with no upside whatsoever. In fact in the best case scenario they pay a DH 50 million for two years. Which is beyond crazy.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 06:05 PM) Maybe I'm wrong but the opt outs seem to be 100% In the players favor. If a player is playing well enough to.opt out, you would rather he stay.on the original contract. And if he is not playing well enough, then you are stuck with him. The only way opt outs can work in the teams favor is if they are backloaded which is the way they started with AJ Burnett, Arod, etc. Boras seems to have convinced clubs to front load deals AND still get an option. This is why I have a hard time feeling sympathy for players because owners and Gm's are just so stupid that you know Boras will take some sucker to the cleaners. This signing was terrible but the Hosmer was the absolute worst.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 06:02 PM) A lunatic steroid rager? Doesn't seem to fit Abreus personality. Come on you knew what I meant. I'm sure there others out there but Canseco was the last 30-20 or 40-20 guy I remember with Abreu sort of size.