wrathofhahn

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:13 PM) We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time. The problem with Moose is he doesn't walk and his all or nothing approach generates a ton of weak contact. Take a look at his batted ball data between 16-18% of the balls put into play are infield popups. 21% of the contact of balls put in play was classified as soft last season. 32% was classified as hard contact. Compare that BB data with Abreu who also doesn't walk. 7.1% of his batted balls were IFB. 16% of his the balls he put into play were classified as with soft contact. 41% hard contact. That isn't something a ballpark is going to fix. He's also a terrible baserunner purely a station to station guy. He did hit better away from kaufman last season but his career splits (non SSS) are pretty equal. I dunno five years of Moose would scare me to death not only because of you are taking someone wholly reliant on his bat speed and BA to generate value (he doesn't) and hoping the bottom doesn't fall out when he gets older but also I don't like committing more then three years to 2 WAR-ish players. It only brings trouble when it comes to decline (remember players over 30 decline by average 0.5 WAR a year)

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:18 AM) Which is why he’s still on the open market. Agreed I don't want to give him five years either. The tricky part with Moose is you have to have a contract long enough with enough money to satisfy Boras while also a contract longer then one to justify giving up the pick. I'd do three years for slightly less money then Cozart 3/34 I honestly don't want to go 4 or 5 years with Moose. I think some team probably beats that but for me the only way Moose makes remote sense for the Sox is on their terms. He probably makes more sense to a club who have already given a pick for a FA like the Phillies.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 12:46 AM) That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs. The last three years (f'n BR can't do simple math): Frazier 3.7 WAR per 650 PA Moustakas 3.4 WAR per 650 PA Cozart 4.7 WAR per 650 PA Like I said he at best deserves Cozart money and that would be an overpay in my opinion. Your Frazier comparison is spot on though in all fairness to Moustakas he does deserve a little more and probably an extra year because of age.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:51 PM) Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent? Player: A. B. Age: 32. 29 BB%: 14.4%. 5.7% K%: 21.7%. 15.7% ISO: .215. .249 OBP: .344. .314 OPS: .772. .835 wRC+: 108. 114 UZR/ 150: 9.7. -3.6 WAR: 3.0. 2.2 12-16 aWAR: 3.5. 2.2 Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Standard guesswork is that on average hitters decline by around 0.5 WAR after 30. Zips projects him to have a 5.6 WAR next year so it isn't outlandish. The problem is of course this is guesswork and there is a ton of variation that goes into that 0.5 figure and the deeper into the 30's you go the steeper the decline tends to be. Which is why teams are so reluctant to give older players that kind of length to begin with because they want to be able to walk away. No way I would be willing to commit five years to Donaldson because what if you are wrong and the bottom falls out for the last three years. No thanks.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 02:39 AM) With the A's or some s***. If he hits well why would you move him he's under control until at least 2024. Abreu and Avi are free agents in two years and DH is still open there are spots if he can hit if he can't he's worthless so who cares.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:42 PM) We wouldn't be able to get comp picks. New CBA allows each player to be given a QO once in their career. Moustakas' was this year, so he can't be offered it again. Agreed a pillow contract accomplishes nothing. Plus I don't really see Boras signing off on a longterm way below market deal. I'd probably be willing to do a Cozart type deal but remember Cozart had 5 WAR last year. He'd still be overpaid at 3/38 in my opinion and it's hard to see Boras accepting that considering where he set the market

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:16 PM) Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster. 2 isn't average it's an average starter and I assume they are talking about the median not the mode.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:59 PM) Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A. Because signing Machado is a win now move and right now the Sox aren't ready to win. Reality check last years team lost 95 games. This year the team at best projected to win in the low 70's. That means likely 85+ losses. The Orioles lose 87 games games last year WITH Machado. One player will not turn around the franchise and it makes very little sense to commit to Machado when you don't know what you have at the ML level. Will Machado be willing to sit and wait if a couple of our prospects don't pan out and the rebuild is longer then Hahn intended. Or will be forced to continue to go for it and throw bad money after good. You want to see what that looks like well take a look at the Orioles

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:45 PM) I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present. We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild. You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster. Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals.

The problem with Moose is he has the pick attached so signing him to a pillow contract doesn't work. I don't think the FO want longterm resources tied into him considering realistically his age and where the club is from a competitive stand point. His best bet is probably to return to the Royals and come back next year with no pick attached when more clubs are prepared to spend. Problem is Moore has been sending out smoke signals for months he doesn't want him back. They want the pick. It's a tough spot no obvious need for a contender and he costs teams a pick. Boras will have to work overtime on this one. The only team that sort of stands out is the Phillies Franco was awful last year and they signed Santana so they won't lose a pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 20, 2018 -> 08:25 PM) Cardinals have Gyorko... Rosters are pretty much set around the league at corner hard to see the spots where he could conceivably be an upgrade. Maybe, the Phillies. The Sox. The Royals. Not going to count out Boras but the Yankee trade hurts his market no obvious need among any of the contenders

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 07:48 PM) Here we go again Ugh this wasn't my intention think I need to take a break from the board every thread I make gets side tracked.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 08:41 PM) They work out fine for a team if they take them for what they are. JDM 2 best seasons should be the first 2.if he opts out, it means the Red Sox got a pretty good deal the first 2 years. If they weren’t willing to go more than 5 years now, why, in essence, would they 2years from now? Teams letting the opt out go usually are pretty happy they did. Teams they re sign the opt out to a longer contract usually regret it. If he has 2 great years, be happy and let him walk. Let someone else pay for the decline. It is great for players, as if they play well enough they will get even more. But if teams are smart, it could be a good deal for them as well. You do realize it's not that simple right? If he plays well and opts out the Redsox maybe happy they paid extra (probably about 10 million based on what EE got last year) but got their LF/DH for two years. The problem is baseball is not that simple and tidy. He could play poorly or be injured for the first year he then walks away like a boss with most of his money paid upfront. Or he could have a down year or be injured for two years then opt out in year three. Or he could be a disappointment entirely and opt in for the entire duration. The point is regardless of what happens JDM is covered and will come out ahead. The redsox absorbed a terrible amount of risk with no upside whatsoever. In fact in the best case scenario they pay a DH 50 million for two years. Which is beyond crazy.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 06:05 PM) Maybe I'm wrong but the opt outs seem to be 100% In the players favor. If a player is playing well enough to.opt out, you would rather he stay.on the original contract. And if he is not playing well enough, then you are stuck with him. The only way opt outs can work in the teams favor is if they are backloaded which is the way they started with AJ Burnett, Arod, etc. Boras seems to have convinced clubs to front load deals AND still get an option. This is why I have a hard time feeling sympathy for players because owners and Gm's are just so stupid that you know Boras will take some sucker to the cleaners. This signing was terrible but the Hosmer was the absolute worst.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 06:02 PM) A lunatic steroid rager? Doesn't seem to fit Abreus personality. Come on you knew what I meant. I'm sure there others out there but Canseco was the last 30-20 or 40-20 guy I remember with Abreu sort of size.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Feb 19, 2018 -> 02:03 PM) Ideally Yolmer really is a 3 WAR 3B and Jake Burger has some work to do in order to supplant him on the next good Sox team. His frame more lends itself to 1B or DH. Hope he sticks as a stocky 3B but it will be hard. First step is proving he can hit he had a decent rookie year in A ball. Needs to show more power but hopefully that comes with time.

He's a kid who came from nothing and is in the ML of course he's a little cocky. If he wasn't confident in his own abilities and his ability to win the job that is the point to be concerned.

Jose Abreu has dropped over ten pounds this offseason with a goal of stealing more bases for the Chicago White Sox this season. "Just because I think I can do it," Abreu said of the goal. "I really believe I can do it and I like the challenge. I like to challenge myself and I think that's a good challenge for me and I'm ready for it." https://theathletic.com/245444/2018/02/18/j...stealing-bases/ Would be something else if he could add that component to his game. At the very least dropping the added weight (assuming it's not muscle) would also allow him to move around in the infield better and possible add a couple of years at 1B before having to DH

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 02:49 PM) We're saying the same thing on the "difficulty" concept, just looking at it different ways. You're saying the positional adjustment is based on scarcity of quality hitters at the position, whereas I'm saying that teams are willing to put up with poorer hitters at those positions because they're harder to play defensively. It's a philosophical difference of source that leads to the same conclusion that defensive adjustments are (and should be) made based on the difficulty of the position. I can understand your point about an influx of .900 OPS catchers, my argument is the likelihood of that happening is nearly zero because catcher is a hard position to play good defense. Apparently, this is also a point of contention between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, as well. ETA: My argument is not and was never about the market price of WAR. Based on the example I gave in my original post, it's clear that I agree with you on what the common practice of teams is when trying to replace a player, and how they might be best served. The point I'm actually trying to discern is what the VALUE of WAR is, not the market price. I'd also contend that without a true value of WAR, you can't really know what the surplus value of a contract is, just how well you negotiated a contract relative to the market. That's a good thing for GMs to know, but I don't think it provides much information beyond that, and certainly not the information it purports to provide. I think though if you look at the WAR dollars of fangraphs they are already widely inflated for example going off their figures prior to last year Donaldson previous two years was worth 70 million and 60 million. At what point does it become more of a theoretical exercise rather then useful data? I would much rather if the goal is to have a useful stat is for the market value of the player to be calculated. Spotrac already does it to some extent but it's clumsy. Opportunity cost should always be a factor in surplus value and right now it isn't.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 01:22 AM) The AAV isn't bad, but something closer to 5 yrs/$90M makes a lot more sense to me. Assuming he doesn't opt out, those last 3-4 years may be really rough. His ascent last year was mainly BABIP driven they probably regret it year one. It really isn't hard to find a .800 ish OPS 1B who can play adequate defense. The worst part of the contract is the fact it's front loaded with an optout. So essentially he gets 5 years 101 million AND the option to opt in for 3/39 if he bombs. This contract has zero chance of ever working out for the Padres.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 18, 2018 -> 12:00 AM) What a joke Boras comments were. He always manages to find a sucker. Hosmer deal already looks bad just imagine what it will look into his mid 30's. If I'm Dickerson and I become a FA I tell teams my stats are comparable to Hosmer he got 8 years I'd settle for 7.

QUOTE (flavum @ Feb 17, 2018 -> 11:21 PM) Hosmer 8 yr deal, opt out after 5 with Pads What a joke Boras comments were. He always manages to find a sucker. Hosmer deal already looks bad just imagine what it will look into his mid 30's.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 17, 2018 -> 10:27 PM) Sox could grab Dickerson and let him DH, or put him in LF and let Delmonico DH. It's a win/win scenario either way, as adding Dickerson makes the Sox undoubtedly better. Yep left handed bat can play the field or DH seems like a perfect fit

Should have taken a look at Odorizzi. He would have helped solidify the rotation and been a perfect buy low guy