wrathofhahn

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Feb 9, 2018 -> 12:32 AM) I'd be more than fine with the Sox bringing in both CarGos. Huge upside on both at the Rate, and you could either flip them at the deadline or surprise contend with both of them on the roster. I mean I'd love for them to bring a bunch of guys on pillow deals guys like Cargo, Morrison, and Tillman. Some people are focused on tanking and sure whatever but you can get better prospects via trade. Plus it's more interesting to watch real MLB players. It's one thing to not sign a veteran stop gap because you are worried about blocking them but are we really worried about blocking Davidson at DH? Moving shields to the bullpen?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 8, 2018 -> 10:22 PM) Carlos Gonzalez, Eduardo Nunez, Jose Bautista (declining for last two years), Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez and Cameron Maybin all still available at bargain prices. Yeah I actually wouldn't be opposed to bringing one of them in. Mainly someone like Gonzalez or Duda. I don't think some of the depth we have at OF is going to hit enough to DH and that leaves Sanchez or Davidson which really haven't hit enough either. Gonzalez would be intriguing because you could spell him in the OF and platoon him at DH with Davidson or Sanchez. He only hit .762 OPS overall last year but had an .832 OPS against RHP. His three year splits are even more pronounced with a .909 OPS against RHP .635 OPS against LHP/ This lineup doesn't really have a LHB of note either. Not sure he'd be willing to settle for that kind of role though but with the way this offseason has went who knows.

Now we just need a couple of high upside arms this year so they can work their magic. No point of wasting them on Shields. If I'm Tillman I'm calling the Whitesox and begging to sign a pillow deal

QUOTE (oldsox @ Feb 7, 2018 -> 06:50 PM) Agent for DJ Martinez PO'd at Red Sox, shifting talks to other teams. Supposedly. I always find these "reports" humorous like they weren't talking to other teams before. Nightengale reported earlier today that the only other formal offer that Martinez had received outside of Boston was a one-year pact to return to Arizona. Take it JDM that will show Boston I don't need your stinkin 150 million.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 08:56 AM) Chicks dig the fastball! He was pretty good in 2016. 11.9 K/9. 2.9 BB/9. 2.79 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. Let Cooper work with him see what he can do. Could have some value at the deadline should he rebound got three years of control. Remember Kahnle was a big part of the Rutherford trade. In alot of ways he was worth more then Frazier.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 7, 2018 -> 01:23 PM) It seemed like the talk all off-season was also that they would trade JBJ after signing JDM. The longer the JDM signing is put off, the harder it is to trade JBJ since teams that could have traded for him have already signed/traded for other options or dealt pieces away for other areas of need. Unless they have no issue with Hanley being platoon DH or 1B. They'll platoon Hanley. His option vests with 497 PA. No way they want to pay him 22 million next year

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 7, 2018 -> 01:14 PM) https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ Interesting I think the bullpen will be better then that. Also no way the OF looks like that. If Delmonico hits he's our everyday LF. Moncada should hit better then .233 with a .740 ish OPS. Hard to see Anderson hit .265 with a .289 OBP. He may hit .240 with a .289 OBP lol.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 6, 2018 -> 03:57 PM) I think with ALL of the top 10-15 or so free agents, there is a place where the price gets low enough that it makes sense. However, I think that the price that makes sense for the White Sox is lower than the price it makes sense for a bunch of other teams. So you're right in theory, but I don't think these guys will practically fall down to us. Also, it sounds like Boras/MLBPA seem to be dead set on forcing a strike rather than accepting that this free agent class is simply weaker than average and they just aren't going to demand the same type of salaries as recent classes. There seem to be multiple reports saying that Hosmer has two 7yr/120-140mm offers on the table, but Boras is holding out for 10 years. Darvish has multiple 5yr offers on the table, but he's holding out to see if the Dodgers will clear space for him. Martinez has a 5yr/100-125m offer from Boston on the table, but he wants 200m. So I fail to see how this is the teams' fault -- these guys have very reasonable offers, they're just insisting on being treated like superstars instead of the flawed-but-above-average players that they are, simply because there aren't any true superstars available. As such, the Moustakas'-tier player is left holding the bag because no one is shopping down there until the top guys sign. I think a guy like Moustakas will just take the opportunity side with the union in their publicity stunt rather than settle for a pillow contract. IMO, this is a bold, all-in push by the players to gain ground in a year where they really don't have a lot to justify the gain. They're doing this to themselves. Let's see if no one is willing to pay up for the generational talents next year before we start yelling for collusion. I mean part of the problem is Boras also is the agent for other players so he really doesn't have them competing against each other. It's sort of hard to use other players as leverage when the other agent for the player is Boras. In the past it's worked Boras could wait out the market because he held all the cards. He didn't need to worry about other agents coming out from underneath him to snatch one of his offers because he was the other agent for top fa's. Now with teams rebuilding he's lost control of the process because teams can say well you aren't taking my offer? Well I'll trade for Ozuna instead. I'll trade for Yelich. I'll trade for McCutchen. I'll trade for Cole. He;s lost the power. It's actually funny to listen to Dombrowski say what I've been saying all offseason we have a number for JDM but there is no urgency on our end. Other options (also Boras clients) are not coming off the board and there are still trade opportunities.

The longer this JDM situation drags on with the Sox the more likely I think we could see them offer whats left of their farm for Abreu.

This offseason has been so boring.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Feb 4, 2018 -> 07:26 AM) Greg has a point. Face it, the majority of the rebuilding efforts have been through trades, not draft picks. The last two Number 1 picks, Burger and Collins, are hardly the cornerstones of the rebuild. If Sox could find a real major league CF, they have what could be a pretty good lineup. I would like to see them go for it, at least until Trading Deadline, and see what happens. What does one have to do with the other? What concerns me about the lack of picks and IFA is that because of that we don't have a second wave. If a couple of our top prospects bust or we need to make a trade down the line we are in trouble. We need to be more active in IFA. We could also use a couple more trades this time targeting HS/IFA guys high upside guys. Dodgers have a ton of them. Our guys at the bottom of the system are old.

I wouldn't be opposed to entering the conversation to get back one of Miamis bad contracts in return for a good prospect. Tazawa. Zeigler. If the Marlins want to save money those are two guys who stunk last year make around 16 million should get you a good player to take on. Also gives our bullpen some meatshields before starting the clock on the guys in the minors.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 3, 2018 -> 11:04 AM) Josh Reddick was a pretty consistent 2.5-3 WAR player and he signed for 4/$52 last year. Would Boras take that for Hosmer/Moustakas? Hosmer is inconsistent - he'll have a 3-4 WAR year, and then a 0 WAR year. Moustakas is inconsistent too. The tanking teams has something to do with it, but it's also a fact that the market has changed...these 30 year old good/not great players just don't have the value they did. The other problem is the player agents have badly misjudged the market. The longer they wait the more apt teams are to make trades to fill in holes which many have already done.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 11:03 PM) It actually is like that. This article is misleading because he is comparing opening day payrolls to today when there are so many FA available. If payroll does decrease it will be negligible. What is more likely is the term for many of these players won't be what their agents are looking for. They'll get their AAV just not the term.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 09:53 PM) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/tony...-offseason.html This would appear to be getting worse. I love baseball and I was happy to welcome baseball back in April of 95 after the strike. However, if that s*** were to happen again, f*** the owners and players, I would would wash my hands of the sport for good. Going on strike hurts the fans and fans only. Let's hope the owners and players pull their heads out of their asses. They can moan and groan all they want but GM's are just smarter now. It's not like team payrolls aren't going up they are just being smarter with how they devote their resources.

QUOTE (Sarava @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 01:22 PM) For starters - it looks to me like he has 2 years left on his deal? So we're conceding that they aren't even trying for a free agent in next year's big free agent class? Also, even if it were off the books, the money is still spent. $40 million is still $40 mil. It's going to eventually come out of something. The Sox don't have an infinite amount of money to spend. The Padres are paying 5 million so it's slightly less. I'm with you it doesn't make sense to trade for Kemp unless the Dodgers offer you top prospects or a bunch of quality ones. QUOTE (Sarava @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 01:33 PM) In any event, you aren't going to get a Luis Robert caliber prospect for Kemp's contract. But hey, if you can, then I could accept hurting the chances of signing Machado next year. But it's not happening. The Dodgers are stingy with their prospects. They certainly aren't giving up a haul to remove one contract. I mean I honestly don't care about the Dodgers perspective on things. Noone is knocking down the door for Kemp if they don't offer a good deal he can stay a dodger and ultimately be bought out or be moved next year when a team would need to eat less money. I do think there is a chance a remote one that they want to sign Darvish or some top shelf pitcher and they need to move Kemp deal to facilitate the move to keep them under the repeater tax. In that case maybe from the dodger perspective they wouldn't be looking at it as straight Kemp trade but also as essentially trading for Darvish or Arrietta but yeah it's not our problem. They can hoard their own prospects Ideally it probably would make more sense to invest that 38 million into the farm through IFA and overslot signings then anything the Dodgers would offer but I think Hahn should at least listen.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 09:28 AM) Alvarez had fallen off the top100 and his stock is pretty down right now. If we target him, you could also probably get another guy from the back of their top 30 pretty easily. He's still a top 100 prospect his stuff is electric but yeah he probably falls a little after last year. A bunch of their guys took steps back but they still have some really young guys who could be part of a 2nd wave (or all flame out entirely). Heredia. Brito. Merinan. What impresses me most isn't who they have at the top but the guys 15-30. Most of our guys are already advanced with very little upside. Their guys could rise to the ranks of the top 100 in a couple of years. I'm also not sure what the market is right now doesn't seem like there are any other teams willing to take on a contract of Kemps size.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 08:09 AM) As someone pointed out, there hasn't really hasn't been too many of these moves where there were big prospects. I think you have to use that Touki Toussaint deal as a guideline. I believe he was trade for only one year of Arroyo and Kemp is making me more annually. So it should definitely be worth more than him unless like you said, we get multiple intriguing guys. Yeah the Liriano deal for me sort of stands out. The Blue Jays got two fringy top 100 guys for eating Liriano deal but Liriano had value and was only making 18 million over 2 versus like I said Kemp being owed 38 million (lower figure then salary bc 5 million paid by padres). I said in my other post at best 5 million and really thats probably pretty optimistic regarding what he could get in FA right now. I have no idea Liriano value (contract wise) at the time of the trade. I do know the Blue Jays were able to move him later and get some interesting guys back as well from Houston without eating any of his contract. That won't happen with Kemp. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/blue...co-liriano.html

Just going off the Moss deal as a baseline you'd probably at best be looking at a one year 5 million ish deal for Kemp. He is making 38.5 million over the next two years. Thats 33 million worth of excess cost. If you aren't going to get a good package for taking on the cost of Kemp I'd rather them just focus on other areas bring in someone like Duda on an one year deal and hope he hits for you then move him at the deadline. Bringing it back to Moss that trade that Oakland pulled off for a reliever arm is a smaller deal we could be targeting like we did with Soria. We don't sort of need to take on a commitment like Kemp to get a decent prospect or interesting ML arm back like Front. If it's Kemp we should and would demand more much more.

Seems like it was wrote by a dodgers fan. Front? Really? Try again. Also if you aren't getting back someone in the top 50 plus another intriguing prospect outside the top 100 you better be getting back a bunch of intriguing prospects. For example the guy I'd want in their system would be Alvarez. If not Alvarez it would have to be something like Ruiz, Heredia, Brito and Marinan.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Feb 1, 2018 -> 05:01 PM) I think finding out if Sanchez can be a 2-3 WAR player moving forward is more important than creating a spot for Matt Davidson or creating depth on a team that is incredibly unlikely to compete for anything that isn't a top 5 draft pick. That said, bring on Kemp as a DH if he comes with appropriate prospect compensation or something interesting from their ML roster like Joc Pederson. Whether Sanchez or Davidson plays 3B DH is a spot that could be upgraded. Personally, I think with Davidson power he's sort of a guy you work on fixing his approach and hoping he gets onbase enough to get his OPS in the .800 range. Not sure Sanchez will ever be the guy he's a solid 2B but not sure he has 3B power.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 1, 2018 -> 04:17 PM) Brewers may be close to making a move. Front Office called for a big meeting this afternoon according to a Brewers insider. Probably inregards to a FA. Darvish maybe?

Duda on a one year wouldn't be so bad. Of course for the right prospects Kemp works as well. I was actually just about to post this (my own thoughts not heyman) but didn't know where to post speculation. Davidson has more value at 3B. DH will hit better then Sanchez seems like an easy way to upgrade the offense and create some depth with Sanchez coming off the bench

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 1, 2018 -> 11:37 AM) I know there are a ton of moving parts out there, but I would love to see the Cubs gets screwed by waiting so late into this off season to do something about their starters. Hard to see that happening. Heck the only guy we signed we probably overpaid by quite a bit signing him early. Take at the Avila signing what did he get? 8 milllion over 2. What did we pay Castillo 15.5 million over 2?

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 01:47 PM) What I think your post shows is that the swing data is more useful to measure his performance against his past performance than it is to measure him against the average player in terms of finding reasons for his success in 2017 and indicators that said success may or may not repeat, and that small changes in things like swing data, contact profile, etc. can lead to larger changes in things like OPS. Something has to explain his success for the full 2017 season, and it isn't just BABIP, because that went down by 50 points over the course of the season while he ended up maintaining a .330 average for the whole season. So if it isn't those numbers, what is it? We need to stop pretending that these things don't happen they do. It's uncommon but it happens. I named five players in my other post who had magical Avi like seasons. Then completely fell off a cliff. Thats not to say I don't think it has to happen in Avi case because the talent is there but he can't build off last season. He needs to work getting under the ball and driving it. He needs to be more selective at the plate. If he wants to have a really good season again. If he wants to hit with a .750 ish OPS he can do what he's already doing and if a couple things go right instead of everything like last year he can have an ok year. Prior to last year he had an BABIP of somewhere around .320. To give you some perspective of the difference BABIP makes had his BABIP been his normal averages after crunching the numbers he'd be batting .253 last season which would have dropped his OPS 77 points.