WestEddy

...and it's friend, "The Sox suck because of fans like you". LOL.

Anybody who has bought a new car in their life could probably navigate a major league trade. If it's truly so hard that one needs all this experience to make trades, then every baseball message board should be closed down, because none of us has any idea what we're talking about. Unless Dan Evans or Hawk Harrelson lurk.

A well-seasoned Rick Hahn was relieved of Semien, Bassitt and Tatis Jr. Experience doesn't play into it.

It's weird how, for about 4 rebuilding seasons, we had a replacement-level Sandy Alomar as our catcher in the early aughts, and it seemed like a coup. Everybody even wants him to be in any manager mix because he somehow learned how to "win" in Cleveland. But a Salvatore Perez who could rake, comparatively, sucks because he somehow learned how to lose in Kansas City. Perhaps we should be chasing the garbage Texas won't resign because they have intrinsic wisdom on how to win, now.

I've always been told, never make something contingent on "seeing the books". You can make numbers say anything you want, depending how you depreciate assets, or don't, etc.

I'm guessing this is what happened with Jose Quintana (since he's been used as evidence for waiting for better offers). Hahn wanted a Sale return, and was probably only getting a top 50 and a "just missed the top 100" guy offers during the off-season. If Cease is garnering the packages Getz envisioned, it's all just haggling at this point.

This is more than Cease will make in the next two years.

Define "higher return".

I'm pretty sure nobody's wondering this. Cease is a known entity. His value will never be greater. And he's available in a market where he is the most attractive starting pitcher because of years of control, cost control, reliability and cy young pedigree. And you also bring up that there aren't any unknown variables about this market - supply and demand are pretty much locked in. You're not worrying about injuries, losing streaks that make an ace available, etc. I'm not sure why a team would not act in such a favorable environment, and wait for future environment with so many variables, where even if they catch multiple inside straight cards, they're not guaranteed a much better return.

Or another GM believes stronger coaching and training get him to learn to run, walk, and carry himself in a way that doesn't court injury. Maybe he needs a little more discipline on the fundamentals so that he's not flopping around during team celebrations, reaching back in weird ways on balls in play, etc. I'd guess the trading team already has a plan in place for Eloy when they pull the trigger.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't about 5 of those packages on the table right now. Maybe even better. I would think that the only way Cease's value increases if he becomes a pitcher nobody even envisioned, like, dominant guy who takes a no-hitter into the 5th inning every other game, which I don't see happening. Or if the Dodgers lose another two starting pitchers before the break.

I don't know. If there's a GM who's ga-ga over Eloy's ceiling, and has a blocked SS who is better than Gonzalez, maybe the 2 pull back a decent rotation piece and that upgrade over Gonzalez. I'm not advocating trading him. It's an interesting idea, seeing nobody seems to like him. Imagine having packaged Zach Collins much earlier, and having turned him into a working piece.

I had Quintana's page open as I responded to you. He's not a statistical comp, but his situation parallel's Cease's. Solid, reliable arm with extra control beyond that year. I agree with you on this.

Suffice it to say, only teams that see themselves in the 2024 playoff picture are going to be kicking the tires on Cease. And those teams probably have faith in their coaching and training staffs to keep Cease on the field, and to wring out his best production. The White Sox aren't going to take a lesser package because of Cease's 2023 numbers, because another team will step in and offer what they want. There's no absolute value on players. It's based on the market at the time.

I'm not arguing that Cease is a #3. My point is that Cease would be no worse than 3rd best pitcher in a very good rotation. Yes, you can use any of your examples as a staff he might be 3rd best on. On the White Sox, he's staff ace, right now.

Yes, I agree with this. Starter of game 1 is a meaningless label. Buehrle had the better numbers on the 2005 team, but Contreras was the hot hand, and thus, started all 3 game 1s. Cease, with 2 cheap years of control remaining, his near-Cy Young pedigree, his reliability and talent ceiling, presents as the best starting pitcher situation available right now. And he's going to command a huge return.

I don't disagree. My point is that, to the greater argument that seems to be happening, Cease is no worse than 3rd best on a very good staff. Every team doesn't have a "very good" rotation. He'd easily be the ace of a third of MLB teams, without even looking.

I'm not sure what's being argued. Sure, Cease doesn't inspire confidence like Pedro, Big Unit, Clemens, Maddux in their prime. He's no worse than a 2-3 on a good staff, and he's probably the best 'package' available, right now. I think you're arguing that.

I like the idea of throwing in a guy nobody in the organization seems to like. I don't think any deal for Cease can be made any sweeter. However, somebody might have taken a shining to Gonzalez on draft day, and he might help Eloy bring back an actual package. Eloy/Gonzalez/Colas could shake loose another AAA catching prospect, an interesting pitcher, or a reliable bat.

Again, just jonesing for names, Elijah Evans throws together 5 random trade ideas, one involving Eloy: https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/five-mocks-trades-that-would-make-both-teams-better/ Brewers Acquire: DH Eloy Jiménez White Sox Acquire: LHP Aaron Ashby and INF Juan Baez

Nobody cares about any of that. Dylan Cease was a veteran with playoff experience.

Baltimore and Miami. Next question.

I agree with you. Cease doesn't present as being injured, or growing old. Every single team has faith in their ability to develop or fix a player with the upside of Cease. And when we see true projects on the free agent market getting multi-year deals for more than what Cease projects to make, whoever deals for Cease will pay for his upside. All you need is one yes, not 12.

I forgot Rodon. 6. I appreciate your argument. Yes, they did try stocking up on arms, and Fulmer was drafted as a "close to ready" college arm. After Fulmer, Crochet and Vera were the first pitching prospects they brought into the system who came with any fanfare. Everybody else were just arms or projects. Arms they didn't have the apparatus to develop. Davis Martin is promising, both as a prospect, and as a newfound ability to develop lottery tickets from the 15th round.

They went into the last rebuild with exactly 5 rotation arms. They traded one, put one in the bullpen, and Kopech went squirrelly. I feel like they have to plan on 10-12 strong, top-level pitching prospects to have a reasonable, home-grown rotation for the next assault.