SoxBlanco
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Posts posted by SoxBlanco
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22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
This is not hard to figure out.
The White Sox had a negative run differential this year. Typically wins do follow that, over a long enough time. So they are already starting in a hole.
Then, Abreu, Cueto, Andrus, and Harrison are all free agents. They produced about 10 WAR this season, 30% of the teams total.
They have a bottom 5 system with little to trade. They have brought up 0 top 100 prospects since Vaughn in April 2021 so very few possible breakout all star candidates.
They had one of the 4 or 5 oldest rosters in baseball this year. Even if they are clearing some guys out, everyone else is a year older.
They already have a high payroll and won’t be adding multiple big name free agents.
They will face a tougher schedule next year. Only 13 games against Detroit.
On paper, this team is going to be worse next year than the one that finished .500 this year. The coaching staff is literally the only thing someone could hang a hat on to believe the other way. Why would any objective observer think this team is a likely contender?
I still like the Sox to win the division next year.
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47 minutes ago, MEANS said:
What? Reached?! He hasn't played a full major league season in his natural position. We've asked him to learn on the job while playing him out of position on a team expected to compete for a WS. AV will be much better in 2023 if we position him at 1B for the majority of the season.
And he skipped AA and AAA.
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3 hours ago, pcq said:
Replacing Jose with Vaughn is a bit of a downgrade but I can see clearing the old vet with the young cost-controlled guy. Grifol talking to Grandal leaves me wondering. It seems clear Grandal does not have much left in the tank.
I don’t look at it as a Jose/Vaughn swap. I think of it as replacing Jose and Sheets with Vaughn and whichever outfielder we sign. When you take defense into account, I think it’s a nice swap. And if you think Vaughn will continue to improve at the plate like I do, that makes it even better.
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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
Gallo sucks
Does our front office agree with that assessment?
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5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
Just a question I don't actually know the answer to yet , did the Astros play the service time game with Jeremy Pena ?
No, but they did with Springer in 2014.
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3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:
All right, I've been wanting to do this for a while and it's Friday afternoon. Let's make an assumption and do some math here - imagine that the White Sox had no injuries, and that their list of guys had full seasons. What happens if I scale up everyone's WAR up to 150 games for the starters, 33-34 starts for the starters, and 60-70 appearances for the relievers (70 for Hendriks, 60 for the non closers).
War Actual WAR healthy Luis Robert 2.1 5.0 Eloy Jimenez 1.7 3.0 Tim Anderson 2.0 3.8 Yoan Moncada 0.9 1.3 AJ Pollock 0.5 0.6 Yasmani Grandal -0.4 -0.6 Andrew Vaughn -0.4 -0.5 Leury Garcia -1.1 -1.2 Danny Mendick 0.8 2.0 Lance Lynn 1.9 3.0 Lucas Giolito 1.8 2.0 Michael Kopech 1.0 1.2 Joe Kelly 0.5 0.7 Aaron Bummer 0.3 0.6 Liam Hendriks 1.6 2.0 13.2 22.9 Ok, I even did something realistic here. Robert was a 3 WAR player before the wrist injury, they made him a 2 WAR player by playing him through an injury very, very stupidly. Had they not done that he would have been a 3 WAR player, and he was on pace to be a 5 WAR player, so that one is a little more of an estimate than some. Kopech, on the other hand, I gave him a little more for injury, but he wasn't conditioned to pitch 200 innings so going any higher than that isn't really fair. I was also a little optimistic with Mendick, as you can't really project him up to 600 PAs when he was a backup, but a 2 win season is pretty good for im.
That's 9.7 WAR. How terrible! If the White Sox got all that back, surely they would catch the Guardians, right?
Well, there's one thing we haven't counted. The replacements the White Sox had for some of these guys were literal saviors. Here's actual WAR from Fangraphs for guys who stepped in for replacement starts and/or only got onto the roster because of injuries.
Elvis Andrus 2 Seby Zavala 1.9 Johnny Cueto 2.4 Jimmy Lambert 0.3 Davis Martin 0.6 7.2 If we're going straight off of "What were they doing this year", the guys they brought in made up a ton of their performance. Frankly, Andrus outproduced what Anderson would have done during that short stint, Zavala was the most effective catcher on the Sox this year, and Cueto cleared Keuchel off their roster and kept Velasquez out of the rotation, which was a substantial upgrade. Based solely on what they were doing this year, the White Sox lost 9.7 WAR, but they got 7.2 WAR back from their replacements.
That is...not a lot of loss to injury compared to a 10 game difference.
But, there's one other version of this. What if injuries were the reason that Moncada, Grandal, Giolito, and Lynn were so ineffective? Lynn was a 4.2 WAR player in 2021, Moncada was a 4 WAR player, Giolito was a 4.1 WAR player. That's an extra 1.2 WAR for Lynn, 2.1 WAR for Giolito, 2.7 WAR for Moncada, and of course, 4.2 WAR for Grandal.
THAT last line is the difference maker - how do you count that? That's an extra 10 WAR if you could get those guys back to what they were beforehand, but they were mostly already present. If all of those guys were 100% as effective as they were previously, and all their other guys stay healthy, that's what it would take to make up the ground against Cleveland last year.
What does that mean for next year? Well, if "Everything goes right", they could be up with where Cleveland was this year. But, can Grandal suddenly become a 4 WAR player again? That seems, like the most problematic part of this. Furthermore, they're also, so far, without Abreu and Cueto. That means, they need something to make up for that - Vaughn being better, Colas being better than Vaughn in the OF, Kopech being better, and adding in another OF - if all that happens, they've made up the ground against Cleveland. A few other things could be better - Robert still could be better than that, Eloy could still be better than that, Martin could be better than that, Vaughn should hopefully improve.
But boy, have I had to say "a lot of stuff had to go right" over and over again. A lot of those things that were down compared to 2021 - Moncada, Giolito, Grandal, Lynn, Vaughn's lack of development - all those need to be fixed this offseason. How much of that can be fixed by a managerial swap?
I appreciate the numbers crunched here and the work you put into it, but it completely takes the human element out of things. Who knows what could have happened if the team stayed healthy, won more games early, and then got some momentum and came out each night with energy. Maybe they get some momentum and everyone starts playing better. Hitting a baseball is very difficult, and it becomes even more difficult when you start pressing (or when the whole team starts pressing).
Hell, maybe Cleveland doesn’t win as many games if they weren’t playing from the top spot in the division for as long as they did.
The bottom line is that it’s a complete unknown. Maybe everything I typed it BS, and eliminating the injuries wouldn’t have mattered. But I do know the game of baseball is not as simple as adding/subtracting WAR to a win total.
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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:
I am thinking 1/$12-14M, with a $20M team option with $3M buyout. So $15-17M guaranteed.
If we sign Conforto for $14M and let Abreu walk, we’d still have around $15M to sign another SP, right? Then let the young guys battle for the 2B job.
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2 hours ago, Springfield Soxfan said:
Preparing for the pounding that will ensue; however, I am DREAMING of Trea Turner to play 2b. Was hoping Sox would have drafted him over Rodon.
If they did want to sign Turner, I think they’d trade Anderson. That won’t happen either, but I think that’s more likely than keeping both, especially with Anderson getting closer to free agency.
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On 11/1/2022 at 2:08 PM, ChiSox59 said:
Just went and found this itnerview. Here is the link:
This interview is Exhibit A why I would never trade Gio this offseason. Dude is on a mission. He's going to have a huge season.
Just finally got a chance to listen to this interview. I was down on Lucas so much this past season, but it’s hard not to love him when you hear an interview like this.
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Some Benintendi talk happening in the manager thread right now, so I figured we should bring it over here.
How would everyone feel if he was our outfield acquisition this offseason?
I would obviously prefer Nimmo, but he seems more of a long shot. Given our recent history of doing nothing, I think I would be satisfied with Benintendi.
Would you guys prefer Benintendi or Conforto, if you had a choice between those two?
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Just now, ShoeLessRob said:
Honestly I’m just so fed up with the organization and due to their track record I don’t think they deserve the benefit of the doubt with anything they do.
That's fair. I am cautiously optimistic with the Grifol hire.
But I tend to be a glass half-full kind of guy, and I am already getting excited for next season.
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7 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:
A member of one of the worst organizations in baseball over the past 7 years would be more accurate than hanging on to “achievements” 8 years ago. Wasn’t he just a catching coach also during that time?
Just curious: Are you just annoyed at that choice of words to describe Grifol? Or do you not like the hire?
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8 minutes ago, Soxfest said:
Royals would not hire Grifol, should tell you something. I don’t like this at all.
Doesn’t tell me much of anything, actually.
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7 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:
Recent World Series experience ✅
Ties to winning organization ✅
Not a first time manager ✅
Anymore Hahn lies?
I hate to defend Hahn here, but this continues to be overblown. He listed characteristics of what he's looking for in a manager. He then conducted an extensive interview process and hired who he thinks is best for the job.
Yes, it's possible the best guy for the job doesn't have those characteristics. I mean, how likely is somebody sitting around that checks all those boxes?
I have absolutely no problem with Hahn saying those things and then hiring Grifol.
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1 minute ago, bmags said:
Why do you post stuff like this?
Ha, I was just wondering what the point of his post was. Thanks for asking.
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I beat @Sleepy Harold at posting a tweet! I can die a happy man now.
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14 minutes ago, whitesoxwinner said:
(Not true)
What's not true?
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46 minutes ago, Unknown said:
Just checking in after being gone for weeks. Are we seriously hiring Ozzie?
No
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11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
He's not.
Long and Getz the most likely at this point?
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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:
Who else on the current White Sox would hit 1st? 2022 wasn't all that great for Anderson, and the only 2 regulars who had a higher OBP than him were Abreu (Gone) and Eloy. Is Eloy your leadoff hitter next year?
Sounds like we have no choice but to sign Nimmo.
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1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:
Eye balls
Is this in reference to something you heard? Or in reference to the current candidates being discussed here?
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47 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:
Joe Espada is a serious candidate for this job. If it ultimately ends up being him, it's going to be awhile. Would he even be hired prior to the GM meetings? Astros are probably going to the World Series.
If offered both jobs, do you think he’d choose the Sox over Miami?
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7 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:
Your last statement absolutely rings true but I also think you are downplaying the role of team chemistry/accountability. Cleveland didn't have the best talent but those guys hustled, seems to enjoy playing the game and with francona you knew there wasn't going to be a lot of BS.
Yep. There’s a quality/characteristic in players that is hard to describe or quantify. Not just the cliche “TWTW”, but a certain attitude that comes with the way you play. Some guys want to win more than others, demand accountability, and do the little things (baseball smarts) to make it all happen.
And I hate to say it, but Elvis Andrus was the closest I saw to that type of guy all year on the Sox.
Your 2023 Off-Season Plan
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Totally agree. The power rankings don’t bother me at all. In fact, they deserve a shitty power ranking.
I do think the team will use that as motivation. Combine that with new coaching, and I don’t expect anybody to be sleepwalking through games next year.