SoxBlanco

I don’t think it’ll actually happen (hence my 1% chance comment), but I stand by my statement. People thought Machado would get close to $400M at first. San Diego was not one of the teams in the mix until late. When they realized it would only take $300M, they jumped in and got him. Right now, people are saying Bauer wants $200M. The Sox aren’t interested. But if the price comes down and they realize they can get him on a 1 or 2 year deal or perhaps something in the $120M range, then maybe they make an offer. The comparison wasn’t meant to be dollar for dollar. It was describing the idea of staying away early because the price is too high but then coming in late when no other teams are making a serious push for him.

Maybe we’ll get lucky and land Bauer the same way that San Diego landed Machado. Not interested for most of the offseason because he’s out of our price range, but then when nobody else is really willing to pay, we swoop in and get him for much less than we originally thought he’d get. (Maybe a 1% chance ?)

Bauer

I don’t think it’ll be the Sale plan. I see them being creative to get him up to 100 innings. If they start him in the bigs, there will definitely be a plan that is well thought-out. Maybe it’s a few starts here or there. Maybe it’s 2 or 3 or eventually even 4 inning relief appearances once a week for a certain amount of time. If it doesn’t matter how he gets his 100 innings in terms of affecting his chances of being a starter moving forward, and a solid plan is put into place, I’d rather him be in the majors being challenged and helping the team.

Thanks for your insight. If that’s true, then I’m not sure why anybody would want him to start in the minors. Curious to hear @Y2Jimmy0’s thoughts, since I know you’ve been wanting him to start in Birmingham. (Maybe we could move these last few posts to the Crochet/Kopech thread)

Smart...pretend you’re not confident here so that it contradicts your Al’s Cheesy Beef account to throw us off the scent that you are him. (I kid, I kid)

Solid post. Thanks for the stats.

Yep. And Hendriks seems to like TLR, Giolito, and several other players on the Sox. I think he wants to be a part of this team for the next few years.

Gotcha. Thanks. I still think we land Hendriks.

I was afraid to ask because I thought I was missing something obvious. @Orlando, what’s the conspiracy? That Al’s Beef is Codify?

This is the blurb on relievers (nothing specific about Hendriks):

I look at it like this: Money is certainly a factor while determining the finalists. If a team isn’t willing to pay what the agent is asking for, they won’t be a finalist. But once the finalists are determined, Hendriks will make a choice among them that will not be based on which offer is the highest.

Yeah, 4 for $96M is as high as I’d go. You might be able to convince me to do 4 for $98M, but 4 for $100M?!?! That’s just insane.

I would love to finish the offseason with Hendriks, a Musgrove trade, and a LH bat.

Fantastic post. Couldn’t agree more. With Musgrove on board, we would have a nice rotation of Giolito, Lynn, Musgrove, Keuchel, and Cease/Kopech. Keuchel in the 4 slot will be great, and we’d have a ton of upside in the 5 slot.

Why can’t he start in the majors as a guy out of the pen pitching 2-3 innings at a time? Then try to mix in some starts where he can go 4 or 5. Do that for the entire year with a certain amount of innings as a target, and then make him a starter right out of the gate in 2022.

I think that package of Thompson, Adolfo, Beard is pretty fair for both teams. I like that trade, and I’d be willing to give that up for Musgrove. I wouldn’t hate signing Richards or Quintana, but I think Musgrove is a notch above those guys.

Agreed. I’d give up either one of those packages for Musgrove, but I think I’m higher on him than most.

Good post. Thanks for the insight. I would easily give up Stiever and Adolfo for Musgrove. I know some people think that’s giving up too much, though.

Agreed. Based on what Getz said, it sounds like he will be a part of the major league bullpen from the start of the year, and then they will sprinkle in some starts throughout the year to get his innings up. Is that how you guys took it, too?

Still feel like something gets done today?

His highest FIP in the NL has been 3.82, and his worst ERA has been 4.44. Where are you getting 5.5? Did you just pick an arbitrary time frame?

I’ve decided that I want Musgrove. If you take out 2017 when he was used as a reliever for a large portion of the season, he has 7.2 WAR across 68 starts. That’s over 3 WAR per 30 starts. And when you look at his baseball savant numbers, he has been underperforming based on his metrics. They look near elite, which tells me he’s either going to continue being the same pitcher or possibly unlock something that takes him to the next level. Sign me up. In my opinion, worst case is he’s a solid 3/4 piece of the rotation.

I don’t agree with your descriptions of Snell and Keuchel. You’re either overrating Snell or underrating Keuchel. If Snell didn’t have that one phenomenal year, people would not think as highly of him. And I’m not trying to take that year away from him. It absolutely counts and he deserves credit for it, but it’s not like he’s come close to repeating that year ever.

I’d still take Vaughn over Abrams.