SoxBlanco

I think he hit on Grandal and Keuchel, who were the top two players he signed when we were actually trying to be good.

If you replace EE with Grandal, I honestly believe this will be the lineup (order might be different with Grandal) for game 1 of the playoffs. I know people think RR will keep playing Mazara, but I think Engel gets the start in game 1.

I've never started a game thread before. Ever. I'm starting this one early to make sure it's mine. This is as close to a playoff game as we can get. Giolito vs Bieber...it could actually be a game 1 playoff matchup. After the struggles of late and the brutal loss in extras, this would be a huge game to win. Let's. F***ing. Go.

Colome had back spasms, so that's why he didn't come back out....and Foster did look like toast on his last two batters. Robert missing that ball, calling a fastball on that last pitch, and the location of the fastball were the top three reasons why we lost.

Do you mean 1 week from now?

Added to the roster for next year's team.

Post of the year.

Agreed. Think about how long this pandemic has been going on...it feels like an eternity, but it's been just over 6 months.

Your last sentence is wrong. We just saw McCann catch and Grandal DH in a game last week, and that felt like a playoff lineup. I think we might see the same thing in game 1 of the playoffs, even if we don’t have another catcher on the roster.

I don't think there's anything wrong with doing that in the playoffs. The odds of an injury are very low, and even if it happens, you can get around it with pinch hitting. If the injury happens early in the game, then it would be a problem, but if it happens mid-game or late in the game, you might only need to pinch hit one time. It's a risk I'd be willing to take to keep Abreu out there at 1B where he's comfortable and has been playing well this year.

I definitely see your side of it, and I don't think there's a clear-cut answer. I would just rather have Keuchel in a possible game 2 where the pressure would be large. And I'd rather have the guy who has a better chance to be completely dominant going in game 1.

I'd still keep Giolito as the Game 1 starter because of this exact reason. If he melts down and has a horrible inning or two, I'd rather that be against the other team's ace, where we might have needed a shutdown performance to win anyway. Giolito gives you a better chance of the dominance needed to beat an opposing ace, but if he struggles, you still have Keuchel ready for Game 2, where I would really like our chances. The worst case scenario is if Keuchel starts Game 1 and goes 7 innings/2 ER, and we lose 2-1. Then with the pressure on, an inexperienced Giolito pitches Game 2 and really struggles., and we're going home.

If we lose 3 of 4 to Cleveland and lose 2 of 3 to the Cubs, the Twins would still have to go 4-1 in their last 5 to win the division.

By my count, that was the third time they went back-to-back-to-back this season: 1. Moncada, Grandal, Abreu against StL 2. Grandal, Abreu, Eloy against StL 3. TA, Grandal, Abreu against Cincy (I know that’s not how it works, but that’s what I’m going with)

I’d like to hear about how Vaughn faired against Crochet in Schaumburg. They had to face each other several times, right?

Best he has looked all year.

Exactly. And in this scenario, Dunning would line up for game 3 of the playoffs (if necessary).

I was literally just about to come back and say this exact same thing. Then Giolito is game 1 and Keuchel game 2 of the playoffs.

Does this mean Keuchel starts game 1 and Giolito starts game 2 in the playoffs? Actually, Giolito seems lined up to pitch in game 3 right now. Any ideas what the plan is?

Sorry that I didn’t have time to reply earlier, but this is a fantastic post. Thank you for taking the time to do this. I might send you a message tomorrow to discuss this in more detail.

It doesn't just have to be a home run. A lead off single or walk or double could help. But you are correct in that these are the questions that need to be asked in determining which decision gives you a higher probability of winning the game. Like I said earlier, it's a great discussion and I like hearing both sides if people would actually be willing to discuss it instead of saying "All that matters is keeping the Twins from scoring that inning."

Thank you. Now we are actually getting to the stuff that matters. I believe the hits/homers for Eloy over Dyson are more common than a defensive miscue that causes to Twins to tie or take the lead in that inning.

Ok, then can you please answer another question for me? In your estimation, how many innings this year has the opposing team scored a run because of Eloy's defense?

It literally wasn't big at all. It had no effect on the outcome of the game. But why does everybody refuse to answer my question? I can only assume they don't want to get into a discussion of the probabilities because they know it will be bad for their side of the argument. It's a simple question that I have asked multiple people here, and nobody wants to answer it.

Can you please answer this question for me? In your estimation, how many balls has Eloy missed this year that Dyson would have caught?