SoxBlanco

I think I might just suck it up and offer him 6 years for $120M. Just front load it, so we aren’t paying too much at the end (23, 23, 21, 21, 16, 16)

I still think there’s a small chance that our 5 year $90M offer is the highest and his agent is leaking the $100M offer to get us to raise ours. Like I said, a small chance, but it’s possible.

In one universe, we sign Wheeler, Hamels, a bullpen arm, and trade for Joc. In another universe, we sign Wheeler, Hamels, a bullpen arm, and Calhoun. What is the difference in wins between the two teams?

I’ve read the same thing. It was several years ago when I read it, but it said that 10-11 mph difference is ideal.

If everybody here had to choose between not signing Wheeler at all or signing him for 6 years $125M, I bet we’d be pretty split.

Any quick way to see how many of those 42 games we won?

Yeah, the good news is that we have heard from multiple people that Wheeler wants to get a deal finalized early.

Bummer, Bush, and Laz Rivera.

@raBBit and @Tony... How are you guys feeling about Wheeler compared to last week? Do you feel less confident the longer it drags on, or do you still feel like we're gonna get him?

I think our offer is just below $100M and this is an agent leak to try to get us to up the offer.

That makes sense without even using WAR/advanced stats. Say Wheeler makes around 30 starts and we win about 18 of those games (rough estimate). How many of the starts by those four guys did we win last year? Around 11 or 12? Sounds about right.

I posted a similar breakdown last month. Your numbers look pretty good, and that's about what I'm expecting. In fact, I hope you are right on Abreu having only 90 games at 1B. Here are the quick numbers I threw together a couple weeks ago: Catcher: Grandal (90), McCann (50), Collins (22) DH: Collins (60), Abreu (38), Grandal (32), McCann (32) 1B: Abreu (120), Grandal (30), Collins (12)

Brilliant. Wheeler starts to sweat that we might be pivoting toward other pitchers and that our offer, which is currently the highest, might not be available for much longer. Wheeler to the good guys by Thursday. Book it. Time to figure out RF.

Good call. The Wheeler thread has become a Hamels thread, but this should be its own thread.

I actually agree with you here. I think he's the best player on the planet and the best player of all time. I think he is worth the contract. I just think that in 2022, for example, Trout + random 2 WAR player will be less valuable than the combined WAR of Robert and Betts. It does sound ridiculous to say I wouldn't make that trade, but like I said, this is in the hypothetical world where we are ok with a $400M contract. And if we are ok with that, just spend it on Betts. And I'm not trying to say Betts is as good as Trout.

I mean, the argument is probably moot because we aren't handing out a contract that big, so we are living in a hypothetical world. But in that hypothetical world, I think Robert and Betts have a combined value that is higher than Trout and whoever we put in RF (maybe not for next year if Robert struggles out of the gate, but in a couple years when we are competing for a title).

I wouldn't. If we want to spend that much money, just spend it on Betts next year. I'd rather have the combination of Robert and Betts than Trout.

And I hope that plan B is to go all in on Cole or Strasburg and then go cheap for RF.

This. I wouldn't trade any of those five players.

I genuinely can't tell if people actually think there might be something to the Japanese tweet, or if all of these responses are just tongue in cheek.

I completely agree on Machado. I’ve been saying that since he signed with San Diego. It was more that we got blindsided as opposed to truly believing our offer was better. As for the incentives, I’m guessing they want more incentives for Wheeler than they did for Grandal...just because he’s a pitcher with an injury history and we’re reluctant to go big on pitchers in the first place. I’m guessing we want some innings incentives, but I could be totally wrong.

I think we are offering something like $90M/$95M with our dumb incentives that push it over $100M. I think Wheeler wants at least $100M guaranteed. Hopefully we learned from the Machado debacle and eventually cave and give him 5 years $105M. I’m also hoping no other team is near $100M right now, but I don’t want to wait around much longer. In the end, I think we get it done.

Two questions for you: 1. Why do you feel like Wheeler is a ticking time bomb for another TJ? 2. Do you feel like Kopech and Cease are likely do have another TJ?

Technically, there should be a comma and a question mark in your post. I’m just messing with you, man. I’ll stop the grammar talk. I apologize. Cheers. ?

Haha, perhaps we should.