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SoxBlanco

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Posts posted by SoxBlanco

  1. 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

    I’d actually like to know which team is this example of a team that is built to maybe win 89 games, sneaks into the playoffs, and then wins a title. The most recent example I have might be the 03 Marlins? 
    04 - Boston. Was a wild card team, improbable ALCS, but was also a perennial playoff team and will show up again soon.

    05 - might be the team on here with the least sustained success. Might be the most out of nowhere title in 20 years.

    06 - Cardinals - everyone makes a big deal of them winning 82 games, but the same team won 100 games the year before and was in the 04 World Series. That’s a sustained period of excellence.

    07 - hey Boston again, maybe they weren’t a fluke.

    08 - Phillies - was a surprise at the time but they made the playoffs 5 straight years.

    09 - Yankees. Most recent example I have of a team getting a title in FA.

    10. 12. 14. Giants. There were a couple wild card appearances in there but that’s seriously sustained success.

    11 - Cardinals again. 

    13 - Red Sox again.

    15 - Royals - complete rebuild, “best system in baseball history”, two straight World Series appearances.

    16 - Cubs - made NLCS the year before, 5 straight playoff appearances.

    17 - Astros. Bit of help from a trash can, but have made the playoffs every year since.

    18 - Red Sox again.

    19 - Nationals - was a wild card team, but had 5 playoff appearances and 4 division titles since 2012, never finished worse than second.

    20 - Dodgers. Definition of sustained success.

    21 - Braves - have now won the NL East 5 straight years.

    22 - Astros again.

    This seems very non random to me. There are zero examples of the Rockies or Marlins or Diamondbacks or Pirates sneaking in with an 88 win season and winding up with a title. Teams like that have made the World Series a couple times but I don’t see a win. Every one of them is a multi-year contender who wins their division repeatedly, the shortest stint other than the 05 White Sox is probably the Royals who couldn’t afford to keep a team that made two straight World Series appearances together.

    Titles are going to franchises that are excellent for years.

    This entire post is predicated on the fact that the Sox are NOT a perennial division winner during this stretch. I believe they are, and 2021 is the outlier. If the Sox win a World Series within the next few years, they will fit right in with several other teams on your list: “won the division every year from 2020 through 2024 (with one exception)”

  2. 4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

    Even if this is a salary dumb, Hendriks is an asset with trade value.  If we take back a crappy contract that will only increase the rest of the return with a guy like McCann included. 

    Yep. This is why none of these rumors make sense. We’ve heard that the Mets want to shed salary after signing Correa, but we’ve also heard the Sox might want to trade Hendriks to shed some salary. It doesn’t make sense. That’s why I came up with the unrealistic three-team trade earlier. 

  3. 8 minutes ago, chw42 said:

    Yankees DFA'd Luetge to make room for Kahnle. And to think we're paying Diekman $4 million this year to suck when there's a quality relief lefty on waivers...

    Bullpens arms are so up and down…so unpredictable. Nobody has any clue how Diekman will look this year. Same with Kelly. Same with Bummer. Same with…you got the point. 

    Sure, you could say that about other baseball players too, but it’s especially true for relief pitchers. 

  4. 25 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    Since he left Boston, his arm has come in at about -1 on "Runs above average" each year, so a tiny hint below average. HE was above average earlier in his career but that was in Boston where "The Monster" definitely influences where you're throwing from.

    Eloy, for comparison, last year was -0.5 - in 1/4 as many innings. Andrew Vaughn was somehow worse, -1.5 in 330 innings - so on pace for -5 runs above average on a full season in LF. 

    Basically everything you ask about this guy the answer is something along the lines of "He's been about average". 

    That’s surprising to me. My memory (simply by watching him last year) is that he has one of the worst arms in the league. I thought we were getting an above average defender with a horrible arm. 

  5. 5 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

    sounds like a disaster.  So we don't get any good prospects, and trade the best player in the deal, and take on 2 bad contracts that may be worse than the one we gave up?

    Well the perk that you didn’t mention is that we are unloading Grandal. If that’s not valuable (honestly, I don’t know if it is), then the deal is horrendous for the Sox.

  6. 10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

    Any chance we can get a third team involved in this that is rebuilding and is willing to take Grandal along with a prospect or two?

    How about something like this:

    Mets get: Hendriks (and they save $8M)

    White Sox get:  McCann, Escobar, Dylan Smith or another random Tigers pitching prospect (and they save $10M)

    Tigers get:  Grandal, Baty (and take on $18M). 
     

    This is a first attempt. Let me know why it sucks (because it probably does) and we can adjust it accordingly. 

  7. 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    I'm sure someone else can bring up some really bad examples of gold gloves being given out, that's always fun so I'll leave that to someone else. But here's the remarkable thing - there were 2 qualified left fielders in the AL in 2021. Benintendi and Lourdes Gurriel. Benintendi was the better of those 2 fielders. No one else played more than 810 innings in LF in 2021. Credit where it's due for staying healthy, but you can just as readily call that the "Better than Lourdes Gurriel at fielding" award.

    The 4th most innings played in LF in the 2021 AL was actually Andrew freaking Vaughn. 

    So in other words, he is an ok fielder who actually stayed healthy through 2021 and got a Gold Glove by one step above "Default". You will note that the White Sox could absolutely use a guy who "plays 140 games" at pretty much any position in the lineup, but I don't have to pretend that he's been anything other than an average OF. I also do have to acknowledge that "average LF" is a monstrous upgrade compared to what the White Sox have been throwing out there.

    Thanks for the info. At least we know Benintendi will be leagues better than what we’ve had out there the past few years. Anybody who makes this play is ok by me…

     

    • Like 2
  8. 7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    The year when his Outs Above Average was 0?

    I looked at zero of his advanced stats. I just assumed when you get an award that says you are the best defensive left fielder in the American League, even though there is always some politics involved in the voting and your offense plays a role when it shouldn't, it would at least mean you are above average that year.

  9. 1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

    So Pal seemed to indicate yesterday that Correa to Mets could be good for the Sox, presumably tied to Liam to Mets rumor. Not sure if Ottavino changes that, but worth mentioning now that Correa is indeed a Met.

    Yeah, I bumped his post in the off-season rumors thread, but I’m trying to figure out what we could trade that would lower their payroll. Unless we just take on some Hendriks money. 

    Would we have to take McCann and Escobar off their hands? If so, we’d need a solid prospect like Baty. 

  10. 5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

     Cle

    The projections are no longer available, but I inserted the 2022 actual fWAR performance in parenthesis below,

    Hitting

    • C Cleveland +0.9 (White Sox +1.9 CL -0/2 vs. WS 1.7)
    • 1B Push (White Sox +2.2 CL 1.7 vs. WS 3.9)
    • 2B Cleveland + 3.5 (Cleveland +6.0 CL 6.0 vs. WS 0.0)
    • 3B Cleveland + 3.1 (Cleveland + 4.1 CL 5.3 vs. WS 1.2)
    • SS White Sox +0.2 (White Sox + 2.2 CL 2.3 vs. WS 4.5)
    • LF Push (Cleveland +2.7 CL 4.4 vs. WS 1.7)
    • CF White Sox +1.8 (White Sox +0.4 CL 1.5 vs. WS 1.9)
    • RF Cleveland +0.6 (Cleveland +1.9 CL 1.3 vs. WS -0.6)
    • DH Push (White Sox +3.0 CL -1.3 vs. WS 1.7) 

    Pitching

    • Starting Pitching White Sox +0.2 (Push CL 12.0 vs. WS 12.0)
    • Bullpen White Sox +1.6 (Cleveland + 1.3 CL 6.6 vs. WS 5.3)

    Net:

    Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1 (Cleveland +5.0)

    Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8 (Cleveland +1.3)

    Thanks for doing that, but I was hoping to see the projections. I didn’t realize they weren’t available anymore. 

  11. 30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    No, you should have assumed that Grandal will continue to have issues because a couple of weeks is not enough time to rehab "several bulging disks in your back where doctors have suggested surgery" and playing through that effectively was simply not feasible. You can also ignore much of his previous history because it was unlikely that he has played the last 8 years with that problem while ignoring repeated suggestions that surgery might be required.

    It's like asking a guy to swing a bat one handed, it's never going to work and anyone who thinks they can just do that by will is fooling themselves. Thankfully, we haven't seen anything that stupid in weeks. In both cases, the team training staff needs to stop the player even if they think they can go and work out a plan to get them much healthier and stronger before they should be allowed back onto a diamond. 

    When exactly did the doctors recommend surgery?

  12. 5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

    Even with a couple of down spots in the lineup overall, there aren’t really any gaping holes in Cleveland. The White Sox may regret going into this offseason simply expecting a bounceback season; just as most of Chicago’s offense has worse projections than before 2022, the Guardians’ are largely better. Every good season has some elements of good fortune, but it was a lot more to it than that.

    This is true if the Sox do not add a 2B, OF and SP.

    image.png

    image.png

    Hitting

    • C Cleveland +0.9
    • 1B Push
    • 2B Cleveland + 3.5
    • 3B Cleveland + 3.1
    • SS White Sox +0.2
    • LF Push (Update for 10D)
    • CF White Sox +1.8
    • RF Cleveland +0.6
    • DH Push (Update shifting Eloy FT)

    Pitching

    • SP1 Bieber +0.6
    • SP2 McKenzie +0.4
    • SP3 Giolito +0.7
    • SP4 Civale +0.1
    • SP5 Kopech +0.6
    • Bullpen White Sox +1.6


    Net:

    Hitting Advantage Cleveland +6.1

    Pitching Advantage Chicago +1.8

    What were the net hitting and pitching differences between the two teams going into last season?

  13. 9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

    There was "no indication he was toast" except for the medical imaging showing displaced disks in his back and the doctors who recommended surgery as a consequence. 

    And sometimes players can play through injuries, which is exactly what he showed in his rehab stint.

    Should we have shut down Hendriks also because of his UCL?

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