SoCalChiSox

Frankly, I'm not sure why BAL would even be interested in Cease. Bro....we got Kyle Bradish, bro.

A RH player plus some various pieces....lol no way.

LMAO. OK riddle me this then Balta since you are impugning the integrity of our board insiders (Jimmy, Harold etc) and you have declared in advance that you will not believe any of their reports once we get to ST as to what was previously offered to us... Suppose the real reason no deal went down was because Getz was offered either two Top 100 bats or one Top 100 bat and one Top 100 pitcher but he said no my boss wants two Top 100 pitchers so he turned it down and for whatever reason a three team deal didn't work because the 3rd team that had the young SP prospects didnt like what whatever the 2nd team (BAL, NYY or whoever) was offering in terms of bats. How would you like us to be able to prove this to you if our own board insider reports arent sufficient? You think Getz is gonna hold a press conference at ST and say "oh yeah we were offered savages but I don't want that because I like Limp Dick baseball and my owner is too cheap to purchase starting pitching on the open market"? Like if you aren't going to trust our insiders reports and if media reports are also self serving what realistic and reasonable method are we to use to be able to demonstrate to you that the reason for no trade was X instead of Y? I'm sure you have a good faith and reasonable answer and I'd love to hear it. I'll hang up and listen.

I'm not moving any goalposts. You are saying no deal by ST= no one offered 2 Top 100s. I'm saying someone could easily offer 2 Top 100s plus useful pieces and Getz could still say no because he's stubbornly stuck on this stupid pitching only s%*#. All we need to is simply ask Jimmy/Harold/Pal/fathom/macsandz etc when we get to ST...hey did people offer 2 Top 100s (or equivalent) or not? If the answer is no you win, if the answer is yes, you don't. Simple. The fact that the owner is unwilling to pay cash for pitching doesn't mean we overvalued Cease. We're artificially limiting ourselves and it's distorting everything. With regard to leaks being self serving, certainly media reports and stuff from reporters like Morosi, Rosenthal, Heyman etc can be self serving but internal stuff on this site from our own insiders isn't self serving. No other FO cares about what is posted on a board, i.e. Jimmy and Harold etc have no reason to say "yeah X team offered two Top 100s but they weren't both pitchers so Getz said no" if its not true. Right now the following teams all need or really want starting pitching NYY, BOS, BAL, TEX, SFG, STL, CHC, SD and its possible LAD and CIN might still be in the game too, although the latter is less likely. There aren't 8-10 good quality SPs on the trade or FA market. There might be about 4 or 5 at most.

Good points as always.....imo if Getz is asking for 4 legit pieces as you suggest, it's still all kabuki theatre because both sides kind of know where it will end up but they have to dance for awhile first and what each side will truly accept will only be revealed when there's a real deadline or when someone else has made a great offer but someone else also has an alternative that's time sensitive. Elias has to say no to the savage OF/IF/SP and legit 4th piece framework and offer 2 pieces instead without either the savage or the SP. Getz has to stick with 4 until the last second in the hopes he can use NYY/BOS to spook him into a deal and when the rubber finally meets the road, Getz and Elias both will either have to accept the 3 man framework plus maybe a lotto ticket or they won't. I think fathom said the "plan" is they want to wait until after Snell/Montgomery. Hopefully neither end up in the AL East or at absolute most only 1 ends up there. I think Snell will end up on the west coast and we'll see if TEX is willing to outbid NYY and BOS for Montgomery. IMO if Cashman is willing to play ball and he's on a hotter seat so he should, I would take Jones, two pitchers and a SS/2B prospect. I dont think they will move Dominguez because of fan backlash. It's hard to tell a little kid they can't have a piece of candy when they've had a small bite of it already and like it. Much easier to take something away from them that's only theoretical.

Eh.....I still think you are inferring alot of things that are questionable. For example, let's assume we are at the point of where pitchers and catchers report and let's say Getz successfully called Elias bluff and Elias is now offering the 1) LH savage OFer of Getz choice (Cowser or Hjerstad, Getz likely prefers the former), plus 2) the IFer that Getz wanted (Ortiz/Norby) and 3) he's finally agreed to SP Cade Povich as the third piece. 95%+ of this board would take that deal and such a deal would also thoroughly repudiate you and baseball galaly's theory that Cease is only worth a single back end Top 100 player plus some lottery tickets. Suppose Getz still says no and the reason is because he still wants a pitching heavy deal, not a pitcher as the third piece deal. That a trade didn't go down doesn't necessarily mean we overvalued Cease, it could also mean that Getz/JR simply has the wrong priorities in terms of what they want in the return. You will be correct only if 1) he isn't traded by ST AND 2) our insiders uniformly confirm that no one offered 2 Top 100 players (or equivalent) in any type of combination. You gotta satisfy both elements. But Getz saying I only want pitching and someone offering a treasure trove of bats doesn't mean you are right. It means our FO and owner are stupid.

I appreciate your detailed analysis, thanks Frobby.

Yes but better than nothing

I was OK with him as a second piece if you get a LH savage bat as the first piece, but the fact that the Orioles fans here are trying to push him on us is kind of a red flag to me, so now I'm now concerned he could end up like Madrigal here (not in the sense that he's a midget egotistical slap hitter but rather just the bust concern in general). I need to see @Frobby etc. putting up some resistance to giving him up so I can feel better about him.

I'm sure buyers at the deadline will be glad to know that players with contracts expiring after the remaining half of a season will apparently cost the same as folks with two years since well they are both "rentals"

But isn't his defense like super elite all over the field? That's why I think Getz may be fine with him. Dude can be a SS and if Robert is later moved, then CF. I dont see Getz saying no to Teel and Rafael esp if you throw in a pitcher or two. I know their pitching prospects are nothing special tho. Obviously Getz would love Teel too....and he can turn around and flip Quero for pitching at that point.

I think Getz would be fine with Rafaela and Teel as the main pieces. Obviously Anthony would be amazing but I agree with you that I don't see them moving him.

Lol nice try. It's an "Inside the Orioles" writer not a national SI guy....sounds like Elias is doing a fine job greasing local writers and converting them into basically state media. Unscrupulous but impressive.

Likely disinformation. After all even more control = more cost.

LMAO. You may be confusing New Year's with April Fools Day.

MLBExecburner said we were in on Montas but not at that price. I wonder if this means they will still add another arm (Manaea?)

While I can think of an AL East club that lacks guts, the NYY doesn't lack guts esp with heat on Cashman , neither does BOS when their fans are up in arms and fed up, neither does LAD (I don't think they're done), Preller in SD has never lacked guts, SFG would love to make a big splash for their fans. I think there's a sufficient critical mass of clubs that are willing to deal.

Posting a self serving tweet doesn't make it true. A for effort tho

There's zero chance they will trade both Mayo and Cowser for Cease and Santos. Zero

Yeah I read somewhere one of the two big Boras pitchers was close to a deal...Snell to LAA would be great for Cease.

Thank God we won't be trading with ATL.

Yep it's time for them to sack up if they wanna get out of the kiddie pool. Things are moving pretty fast now.

Nah. Elias thinks everything occurs in a vacuum and he doesn't believe in market forces. Dude would happily cut off his nose to spite his face.....because "principle"

Good. Also thank God we aren't going to settle for ATL in the trade. I've hated that option the most forever. I dont know if Montas to CIN takes them out of the Cease bidding.

Actually isn't Breslow like a literal genius in terms of IQ? As much as I'd love to rob them blind of Anthony and/or Teel, I highly doubt they will go for it.