Flash

Not sure what you are referring to. Do you mean the methodology BTV uses to arrive at surplus value?

Agree to disagree. Call me nuts.

Baseball Trade Values (baseballtradevalues.com)

au contraire...White Sox package = 57.9 Surplus Value (Cease 22.4, Madrigal 29.5, Rutherford 6 and Lopez 0) Reds = 95.2 (Castillo 114.8, Moose minus 19.6) I understand many here do not subscribe to Surplus Value as a proxy for actual market value but, in this case, its not even close. Plus, Moose' contract is arguably expensive but the guy can mash and play multiple IF positions. I'd happily swap out Madrigal for Moose and Cease for Castillo. Lopez and Rutherford are superfluous in this deal. But, like I said, unlikely to be anywhere near enough...especially in an auction scenario.

I'd offer Madrigal, Cease, Lopez and Rutherford for Castillo and Moose. Doubt it would be enough but it might get the conversation started.

Hope Bball in general and minor league/affiliates get sorted so we can enjoy watching these guys develop. I'm very high on Crochet and Stiever and anxious to see what Kopech can do if he can stay healthy and avoid distractions.

Thats a strong top ten...especially with Vera orbiting around the top as well.

I agree as we sit here today it's difficult to speculate on Moose' ultimate position 2-3 years from now but the bat definitely plays. For '21, a Castillo/Moose combo would check in at slightly less than $19M. If there is a way for Sox to pull it off without moving any of our perceived 'untouchables' I'd do it in a heartbeat. In fact, I'd consider moving an untouchable ?

What? Moustakas is a 30 HR +/800+ OPS LH bat who can play multiple positions with a contract commensurate with his production (@$14M in '21). If we had a chance to attract Mouse and Castillo for a Madrigal led package we would be CRAZY not to. BUT...not to worry because we would be outbid by 28 other teams.

But don't you think Padres, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Nats, Astros or any number of other teams would love to pry away Castillo and might open the pursestrings? Taking on Moustakis' contract as part of the deal is a small price to pay considering he is far from 'dead money'.

Gotta believe if the Reds were to make Castillo available there would be a line of suiters willing to pay more than a package headlined by Madrigal.

We are in violent agreement

Its conceivable he found the fountain of youth or his last 2 years are an aberration. Either way...I'd much rather hand him the ball every 5th day than Dunning. Are you saying you wouldn't?

I like Dunning alot but the notion that he will be a 4 WAR SP in '21 is way overly optimistic. The reality is Lynn is an effective and affordable top half of any rotation arm. For '21 and possibly beyond (assuming extension), he is just a better pitcher than Dunning and no amount of aggressive assumptions re: Dunnings potential performance metrics change the fact that we are a much better team with Lynn on the mound.

Lots of risk and plenty of question marks. Big focus on RF as oppty for improvement but easy to overlook positions manned by high profile players such as 3B (Moncada .225 avg/.705 OPS); CF (Robert .233 avg/.738 OPS) along with loss of McCann and his .896 OPS and defense/framing ability. Is it realistic to expect Abreu and Anderson to repeat their MVP type performances or for Jimenez to avoid doing real damage to protective netting let alone his teammates or himself. Will Giolito take the next step? Will Keuchel and/or Lynn regress? Lots to be optimistic about but lets not assume there aren't plenty of opportunities to improve this team.

Hope we don't go four years. Would actually prefer 2 at 13/per plus option/buyout ($4M) but the law of supply and demand will prevail. I like him but he is not infallible (7 blown saves in 2019). I would try to sign someone for 2 years and hope one of the youngsters (Burdi, Johnson, Heuer maybe Crochet) can step up.

Current '21 estimate = $118M. I'd trade for Darvish @ $19M (guessing would require Cease) I'd sign Hendriks @$13M I know that is slightly over $30M but there is a fudge factor re: Cease salary offset and assumption Hendrick might be slightly less expensive. Total '21 payroll @ $140M and start printing PO tickets.

Let's get Hendriks and take a breath. Can start year w/3 catchers (Collins and Mercedes) w/Mercedes RH/DH and Collins LH bench bat and primary backup. Not ideal but have to see what Collins can do. Keep a little powder dry for possible trade opportunities such as Musgrove or Darvish.

Yep...agreed on Hendricks. Richards or Paxton works for me. Hoping we have moved on from Quintana but it feels as though he is very much in the picture.

Guessing '21 budget might have another $20-25 left. How do we spend it? Thoughts?

I disagree. We don't get Lynn if he came with multiple years of control. Of course we traded a cheap controllable asset because thats what was required. There can be no mistaking we are a better team today and given the other potential options, Lynn is a great get. I like Dunning and believe he might turn into a very good pitcher and we might look back with regret but, for now, this move makes a ton of sense...especially if there are more in the pipe.

When you consider Stroman and Gausman signed QO deals for $18.9, this is a major win for WS. Great move!

Its apparent that reasonable people can offer/argue differing opinions on the relative value of Springer and/or Bauer. I do believe there is room for the argument that nether are great fits and, independent of how this organization has budgeted in the past, might not warrant the kinds of contract terms that have been posited. Machado was a clear difference maker and I believe WS were sincere in efforts to sign him. Wheeler was on the cusp of turning into DeGrom and had all the arrows pointing up and made perfect sense for us to pursue aggressively (and we did). Springer is a great player but a reasonable arguement can be made against signing him (vs. other priorities) and Bauer looks to be quite polarizing and perhaps too expensive, although I'm not convinced he won't sign for < $25M/AAV. As much as we would love the WS to spend 'whatever it takes' to sign the FA of the day, I can't find too much fault in how they have managed this rebuild...even if it means not being more aggressive in signing FAs who many on this board feel we should.

According to Roster Resource, Wheeler is owed a bit more than 21.5/yr. Zack Wheeler 30.5 5 yr, $118M (2020-24) $23,600,000 $22,500,000 $26,000,000 $24,500,000 $23,500,000

Great news. Puts another TOR arm in play and increases our chances of landing a high quality pitcher.