Flash

Hang up and listen to this genius...notwithstanding all of the other appreciating and income producing assets the Cubs flagship brand drives and just focusing on the limited data that Forbes has access to, Sox operating income last year was $30M and Cubs was $100M. Assuming an additional $30M (whale) in payroll for each team and a corresponding hit to operating income, WS operating income goes to zero and the Cubs, even assuming a $15M luxury tax hit, falls to $55M. The only question Ricketts has to ask is 'will the additional expenditure pay off in increased revenue or asset appreciation?' On the other hand, the question JR has to ask is 'what size capital call do I need to make to my fellow investors?' As to your questions about how the Ricketts family manages their finances, why on earth does anyone give a rats ass? Do yourself a favor and refrain from making disparaging remarks about things you have a superficial understanding of. You are a passionate Sox fan but a business genius you're not.

According to Forbes estimates, Cubs revenue is almost double that of the Sox and their operating income is 3X. This doesn't take into scope additional off balance sheet assets, the benefits of which flow directly to the owners. Sure, if all you look at is what teams want you to see, and put it in the context of Luxury Tax, then you can make oversimplified comments about what the Cubs, Sox or any other team can afford. The fact is the Atlanta Braves are the only team with publicly available financials. Give me a logical business reason based on fact, not your assumptions or speculation as to why, as you put it, 'there isn't even a debate about who can more easily absorb a whale contract.' I submit that on a percentage basis, another whale contract to the Cubs would have less financial impact to the Cubs than Sox. Also, your statements that the Cubs are owned by a trust fund and are paying down debt via earnings in inaccurate and irrelevant. For perspective, which asset would you rather own (or who's shoes would you rather be in ?) JR/WS or Ricketts/Cubs.

The issue of affordability for any team other than the Braves (publicly available financials), is a big unknown. Fans don't have visibility into the financials. We don't get to see all of the on/off balance sheet assets (i.e. surrounding real estate appreciation, ancillary revenues, etc.). Hence, we use traditional metrics such as attendance, player salaries and luxury tax to speculate on what teams can afford. I'm guessing the Cubs, despite their bloated payroll can absorb a whale contract as easily or moreso than the Sox.

Hope you are right about Gio and wrong about Jones.

Despite the whale-waiting, arent there other moves Hahn can be making? Would love to see us take on a bad contract along with prospect(s). Gotta believe SD might be interested in moving Will Myer, Cardinals/Dexter Fowler, etc.

Feeling reasonably confident re: Machado. Guessing 7 yrs. $28/per with incentives tied to All-Star selection, MVP voting, etc that can bring AAV to $34M. This is just my read of the tea leaves. Noidea if/when it might be announced but I get the sense its imminent and FWIW, if it turns out to be the case, Hahn is to be commended fo managing this well.

Thanks for doing this Jimmy. Its fun to play GM and contemplate who we might select.

In the context of player salaries, especially as relates to Machado and how much the Sox should or can pay him, Fangraphs had an interesting report on the Padres financial situation excerpted from the attached SDU article https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-debt-finances-payroll-fowler-seidler-owners-0118-story.html . Lots of fascinating details but, similar to the Braves finances and most businesses in general, revenue from non-one time sources (i.e.MLBAM sale) drive the amount of proceeds to be used for player salaries. The ratio used by the Padres is approximately 1/3, meaning a third of total revenue allocated to salaries. Since most teams are privately held, its difficult to determine total revenue. Nor can we anticipate how much, if any, JR will spend (further invest) in anticipation a future return, resulting from increased revenue. I recommend reading it if you have time. Might provide a bit of context rather than just tossing out AAV/years as to how much Sox should pay.

Since he is on record that he prefers SS to 3B, I'd tell him its his. The risk is that he signs somewhere he can play SS. Personally, I prefer him to Anderson at SS anyway, despite TAs improvement. I also feel its inevitable Moncada slides to 3rd so I would move him there now, assuming we sign MM. I'd like us to find a stopgap 2B until Madrigal is ready and start the season.

But what if we sign Machado and he wants to play SS. Gotta believe Anderson and his contract would be compelling to several teams...Almoa, Montgomery and Nico Hoerner for Anderson and Jones?

I know this is the FA thread but is anyone surprised/disappointed the Sox haven't been more active re: trades? One need only look across town to find assets who would look good in black and white. Gotta believe Mike Montgomery (LHP) currently buried among Cub rotation/bullpen arms and Albert Almora (CF) could be pried away. Cubs desperately need BP help (Nate Jones?) and some middle IF flexibility depending on what they do with Russell. Plus I'm guessing they would love to reduce payroll (Chatwood?). If not Cubs, there are several other teams (i.e.Cardinals) with interesting trade chits who could help in 2019 and beyond.

We don't have visibility into the negotiations or who, if anyone beyond the WS and Phillies, are in the mix. My sense is Hahn has a 'not to exceed' number (AAV and years) and is in a poker game. He knows what is at stake and strange as this sounds to the masses, I don't think he will get outplayed. Nor do I think he will unnecessarily inflate what we commit to and thereby limit flexibility on future roster upgrades. The risk is with the bankroll JR/et all have allocated. I firmly believe that, if given the mandate to sign MM within the realm of sanity, Hahn will prevail.

Too funny. www.thegoodphight.com Looks as though the Phillie faithful have the same paranoia as we do.

Knowing what you know now, would you make that trade over again if you are Sox?

Sox settling in for the long game, as well they should. Lozano will get back to Sox if Phillie or anyone beat the bid. In the meantime, I think Hahn is playing it right.

Can't decide what I'm anticipating more...Manny signing or the Mueller report. Too much excitement.

fangraphs.com

Might have been mentioned already but Fangraphs has an interesting article today about Manny's value (>$300M) and comparisons to players at similar age/production. On a cautionary note, Jason Heyward is a comp. Article suggests Mannys market might be negatively affected by Heyward overhang.

Guessing Hahn is pretty good at reading the room. He knows how much/long we can go based upon business/economic factors as well as future spending requirements and potential constraints. He also has a handle on who we are bidding against and what it will take to get this to a favorable outcome. I trust him and like our chances unless of course someone goes completely off the grid, in which case not much we can do about it.

Its quite obvious Hahn hasn't read Trumps 'The Art of the Deal' or Manny would have been sewed up ages ago.

Gotta disagree re: position players. Even if TA and Moncada have out of body improvement and Eloy rakes from day 1, not on par with Red Sox, Indians , Yankees, Astros, etc. A lot can happen but way too many question marks to state the Sox do not need to add any other position players.

Might be time to change the dynamic and play offense. If we believe the Yankees are out and the 'mystery team' is a negotiating tactic, it would appear to boil down to Philly or Sox. What if we put forth our final, final offer (okay to publish it) and a 48 hour deadline to accept or decline. Make MM and his agent confront the possibility that the market could shrink to a universe of one (Philly) and even they might be 'iffy' dependent on Harper situation. Its starting to feel like we are being played and its not obvious they have negotiating leverage. Lets stop being patsies.

Curious what position this board thinks MM will play and, if SS, what that means for Anderson...trade?

So is catcher. Grandal anyone?

I'm guessing the economic value of each competing team's offers for both Harper and Machado will be 'within the bandwidth' of one another. We can speculate on the emotional side of the decision making process but who knows how these guys value the non-financial side of their choices. My sense is they may both very well end up in Chgo, with Manny to the Sox and Bryce to the Cubs. What I really hope is that we have some compelling 'plan B' options in the queue if we come up empty. There is so much money being mentally earmarked for either/both player that could otherwise attract 2/3 strong additions. For instance, would it make sense to pursue Grandal, Moustakis and maybe Wade Miley for similar (and shorter) annual outlay?