Perfect Vision

There's been smoke around the Twins, but I don't think they are the biggest threat to the Sox on Wheeler. I think it's the Phillies. They need to sign a good starter this offseason to compete in that division, but I don't think they want to get into a bidding war with the Angels/Yankees at the top of the market.

I think the Sox are ready to go 5/110 for Wheeler. They may have already offered him that. But with Wheeler's market reportedly blowing up the way it has, I'm starting to think someone may throw him a 6/125 offer.

Reds were known to be interested in Grandal. They just gave a 4/64 deal to a worse player. Hard to believe they wouldn't have gone 4/73+ for Grandal now that we know this Moustakas contract. Big credit to Hahn and co. for jumping the market on him.

For the Sox to be competitive, they don't need to trade any of their top prospects, or even think outside the box. Sign Wheeler. Sign Betances. Sign Calhoun or some other short term RF. If Hahn wants to float a Stiever/Walker/Collins type package to try to bring in a young impact RF, I'm fine with that. But trading Madrigal, Robert, Cease, Kopech, Lopez, etc. shouldn't even be crossing his mind right now.

It's a steep price, but we know the Sox are going to pay for pitching this year, and it's arguable that giving Bumgarner a 4/75 deal is a greater risk than giving Wheeler 5/100.

Agreed. It's not going to be a small jump up from Wheeler's price to Strasburg's. Strasburg is going to get $150-$200 mil. If the Sox can't land Wheeler, it's much more likely they go down the ladder to the lower tier of pitchers than up to Strasburg.

I'm starting to think the Sox media team is just asleep at the wheel on these announcements, and there's not some designed plan they are executing regarding them.

Hope I'm wrong, but this is starting to feel like a fish that got off the line. The Yolmer and Burr moves, and the tidbits we were getting from some board insiders, made it seem like the Sox were working hard to get a deal done before Thanksgiving and were feeling optimistic. Then Wheeler hit them with the "let me think about it and get back to you." Doesn't mean that a deal doesn't eventually happen, just that Wheeler's team isn't done exploring the market.

Bruce weighing in. Confirms the Sox want to add a starter before the winter meetings, even if they miss on Wheeler.

Deadline is on Monday. Since a fair number of people in the Sox front office are probably leaving town Wednesday -- Sunday, this may just be them getting out in front of this during a short holiday week. I remain skeptical that the Yolmer move is related to anything.

Wasn't the Palka DFA announced simultaneously with the Grandal signing? So no need to do this as a precursor to a signing. Likely unrelated to Wheeler or any other free agent.

Here's my concern: The Sox made an offer to Grandal that he deemed good enough to sign, and he signed it. The Sox have seemingly made a good offer to Wheeler (reportedly the highest so far), but that Wheeler apparently doesn't believe is good enough to sign right now. That puts the Sox in a tough position similar to Machado last year -- they're in the lead but don't want to bid against themselves and up the offer to a "sign it now" price, so are left in a state of limbo while other teams have the opportunity to beat it.

I think it depends. In this case, I would expect Wheeler to go for the most overall money (rather than highest AAV), since this could be the last major league contract that he signs.

I forgot that they knew each other. Another positive to this deal. I don't think Collins is getting traded. They're going to work together.

I haven't read through the whole thread so this may have been mentioned, but this probably ends the possibility of an Abreu multi-year deal. The Sox are almost certainly planning on Vaughn becoming the primary 1B in early 2021, and Grandal will probably gradually DH more over the course of his contract. The Sox aren't going to pay Abreu to be a part time DH.

This sums up my feelings as well. Before he got hurt, Kopech was dominating AAA and the Sox deemed him MLB-ready. Assuming full health, he should be in the Sox rotation. MLB pitchers who get TJ surgery only make a few starts in the minors when they come back.

Impossible to know what these players are thinking. I think Odorizzi could've gotten a nice deal this offseason, but decided to take the QO because, as he said, he didn't want to be sitting on his couch in February waiting by the phone.

As long as Cole and Strasburg are still available, you'd have to figure teams like the Angels, Yankees, and Padres may hesitate to make an aggressive 5 year offer to Wheeler, as that could make it more financially challenging for them to sign either of those other guys. So from a strategic standpoint, this seems like the perfect time for the Sox to make an aggressive offer to Wheeler to try to entice him to sign early.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but Morosi is credible and not making things up out of thin air. FWIW, he said that the "leading group " for Wheeler right now is the White Sox, Angels, Padres, and Twins. He also said his market already has a good deal of clarity and he might sign before both Cole and Strasburg. I could definitely see Wheeler's free agency playing out similarly to Corbin's last year -- it was reported relatively early last offseason that his serious suitors were the Nationals, Yankees, and Phillies (turned out to be accurate). The Nationals bit and offered him the 6th year, and he signed on Dec. 7.

In September, when he was finally getting regular playing time, he hit .233/.343/.417. Not great, but not bad. Collins probably isn't going to be a star in MLB, but if he can get on base at a .350ish clip and hit 25 homeruns, he would be a fine everyday DH. A DH who would post similar or slightly better stats probably wouldn't be hard to find in free agency every year, but if the Sox could save $8-10 mil annually and put it towards something else by using Collins in that role, why wouldn't they?

Certainly makes it sound like they're not currently negotiating a multi-year deal with him.

A realistic offseason: One large free agent contract ($80 mil or more). Could be to a pitcher -- Wheeler or Bumgarner most likely -- or a hitter -- Grandal or Castellanos most likely. Multiple short term contracts to plug holes. If the big contract is to a pitcher, we're likely looking at Encarnacion and Calhoun. If the big contract is to a hitter, we're likely looking at Hamels and Wood. One noteworthy trade to plug a hole.

Personally, I take that comment of his with a big grain of salt. If someone was willing to offer him $20 million to play his age 36 season, I think he'd gladly take it. I'd be shocked if he signs a deal for anything less than 7 years.

If the Sox were to sign Rendon, I agree that the most likely scenario would be to move Moncada to RF. I have no idea how his defense would be out there, but his speed, athleticism, and arm strength give reason to think he could be at least average. Also, interestingly, despite having a very solid season defensively at 3B in 2019, I noticed that the rating services are mostly projecting a defensive regression for him next year, so moving him off the position might not hurt his value. I tend to think his offensive improvements this last year were not connected at all with his position switch (being more comfortable at 3B) and rather just with a change in offensive philosophy, so I don't think another position switch would have a negative effect on his offense.