Perfect Vision

I'm not guaranteeing that they won't pick up his option. I'm saying that (1) it's not a lock that they pick up his option, and (2) if they do, they will trade him and the return will be underwhelming.

And baseball reference has Q's WAR at 1.2 and Nova at 2.1. My point wasn't to say that Nova is better than Quintana. I don't think he is. My point is that Q isn't as big of a value at $10.5 mil next year as you are making it out to be. Not after the year he just had.

You say that like it's a fact when it's not. The Cubs would get something, but not an impactful something. Front offices do care about their fanbase, but even if they didn't, the Cubs front office is ready to start reshaping their roster. I'd bet good money that Quintana does not throw another pitch for the Cubs.

I'm not so sure. Seems like the organization and fanbase are ready to move on from him, so a trade would be the most likely outcome if his option was picked up. Would the Cubs really get much in return for 1 year of Quintana at $10.5 mil? Honest question. No GM is going to look at him as a TOR or difference-making starter at this point in his career. He's more like a low-end No. 3 or No. 4 guy. Is he really that much better than, say, Nova right now? And how much is Nova going to get in free agency?

Jose Quintana Cubs decline his option to make a go at Cole or Strasburg

Grandal would be my No. 1 target, not JDM. It would allow McCann to move into the back up catcher role (as Giolito's personal catcher) and Collins to be the primary DH where he could focus exclusively on hitting for the first time in his career. When facing a right handed pitcher, they would have 3 power lefty bats in the lineup -- Moncada, Grandal, and Collins -- so good balance. And as others have said, Grandal will come cheaper than JDM, leaving some money to be put elsewhere. I can't see the Sox signing both JDM and Grandal. That would leave Collins without a home (assuming they bring Abreu back to play 1B. They could try trading him but it's a stretch to assume that they'll find a good deal involving him, and for a team hungry for left handed power, would seem odd to trade one of your few left handed power hitters.

He's arguably the best pitch-framing catcher in the game. He had a bad postseason with the Dodgers, but that was an anomaly when looking at his career defensive ability.

Teams are valuing their good prospects more than ever, because with the CBT you need good cost-controlled players in order to avoid going over the tax threshold. Is there a team out there that would be willing to give up a top 50 prospect for 1 year of Betts? Maybe, but I don't think that's as sure a bet as some national writers seem to think. I have no problem with the Sox making an offer, but it shouldn't be more than say Zack Collins + Jonathan Stiever. If that's not enough, then so be it.

Can we just dispense with this narrative that the Sox are at some kind of intangible disadvantage compared with other teams, and that making the highest offer isn't enough, they have to make a much higher offer because who would want to come to the Sox?!? The reason the Sox haven't signed marquee free agents is because they haven't made the highest offers to those players. Period. The reason that the Sox have signed mid-tier free agents like Melky Cabrera is because they have made the highest offers to those players. If the Yankees offered $250 mil to Cole and the Sox offered $255 mil, I'd bet my right nut that he would sign with the Sox.

He was also caught stealing 8 times. Makes you wonder how many times he would have scored on those 8 occasions if he hadn't attempted to steal. Probably at least a couple, which have to be taken out from the 11 added. So he attempted 53 stolen bases -- risking injury on 53 separate occasions -- to add fewer than 10 runs to his team's total.

Your main point in your original post wasn't that the contract would be an overpay, it was that the Sox would have to offer "a significant amount more" than other teams that are seen as more desirable teams. I think that's false. If the Sox offer the most total money (even if it's just $5 million more over the length of the total contract) they'll get Cole or whoever else they want. Whether the signing turns out to be a good or bad long term investment is an entirely different question.

What you're saying isn't supported by the facts at all. Can you give even one example where it's known the player turned down the biggest offer because that team plays in a shitty weather location, isn't competitive, has bad attendance, etc.? It's pretty much always the opposite -- players pass on their preferred destinations to take more money.

I disagree. Leading the league in batting average is a special accomplishment and still means a lot. Tim had a 20/20 season last year and has an outside chance at another 20/20 season this year, so he's still giving you the power and speed stats to go along with that batting average. His defense needs to improve, but the talent to be an above average defensive shortstop is evident. He's going to have a 3.5-4 WAR season this year. If anything, I think Tim remains underrated on these boards, since he's often not mentioned as part of the "core" group with Moncada, Eloy, and Robert.

Regardless of who Cole signs with, I just hope his free agency plays out similarly to how Patrick Corbin's did last year. 2 or 3 serious suitors identified early, fair market offers made (rather than slow-playing and trying to get a deal), and a decision by early December. Let's not have another long offseason full of baseless rumors and speculation.

Season kicks off tonight. Glendale plays at 7:30 pm CST.

Shaun Marcum had TJ in September, 2008. He pitched 195 innings for the Blue Jays in 2010. Stephen Strasburg had TJ in September, 2010. He pitched 159 innings for the Nationals in 2012. If the Sox front office believed Kopech was MLB-ready when they called him up, then he doesn't need to go back to the minors. He'd need a short minor-league rehab if he was coming back mid-season, but spring training will serve the same purpose in this case.

No reason right now to think that Kopech won't be in the opening day rotation. He'll work with the starters in spring training from day 1, build his arm strength back up just like them, and be good to go at the end of March.

Rental position players -- even great ones like Betts -- tend to not cost that much. The Dodgers acquired Manny Machado at the 2018 deadline for a package of players headlined by Yusniel Diaz, who I think was ranked somewhere in the 80s on top prospect lists at the time.

Part of the reason I like the idea of pursuing JDM and just trotting Leury out to RF every day next year (and hitting him 9th in the order) is that if the Sox are in contention at the deadline, they can attempt to trade for Betts at that point since I don't think the Red Sox will be competitive with how they figure to slash payroll. No way would it take Robert or Madrigal to get him as a rental. Then, after 2020, the Sox could decide if they want to make a big offer to Betts, or give RF to one of Walker/Basabe/Rutherford/Gonzalez if one of those guys has a big breakout year next year.

I think Boston wants him to opt out.

This is embarrasing for the organization.

Looking forward to hearing reports on Sheets from the scouts and pro talent evaluators that go to the AFL.

My preference would be for McCann to be the primary catcher again next year and Collins the backup (catching 1 out of every 4 or 5 games), with Collins being the DH on days he's not catching, and McCann the DH when Collins is catching. That will give the coaches a full year to evaluate Collins defense and make a final determination on whether he can be a starting catcher. That will also likely take the Sox out of any Grandal pursuit. Since McCann is a near guarantee of being back next year, signing Grandal would essentially close the door on Collins ever being a catcher for the Sox, and I don't think they're ready to do that.

I don't have the time or inclination, but would be interesting to know the stats posted by Rutherford, Sheets, and Gonzalez when Robert and/or Madrigal were in the Barons lineup compared to when they weren't. Seems like they were all crap in April and May, caught fire in June and July when those two were around, and are crap again.