Perfect Vision

I'm old enough to remember when people thought Machado was a much better fit for this team than Harper.

I'm with you on Bumgarner. He seems like a more realistic target than Cole, who will be sought by all the big boys. Bumgarner could be the Sox version of what Lester was to the Cubs -- lefty, veteran, leader, with history of winning and playing in big games, who will stabilize the rotation. Bumgarner will be about the same age with roughly the same number of innings pitched as Lester was when he signed with the Cubs.

I expect he'll get the obligatory 10 games in A ball (like Madrigal did), but spend the majority of the rest of this year at A+. If he rakes, he'll open next year at AA, and from there it's not crazy to think that he could be called up in July or August if he's OPSing .900+. Even if the production is just good, and not great, I think the Sox would like Vaughn to be their opening day first basemen in 2020.

Me too. I'm just pointing out that this idea that Madrigal's OBP will be driven entirely by his batting average is false. I think he'll walk at a league average rate.

His walk percentage is over 8%. That's better than Moncada this year. Madrigal's not a free swinger.

In his last 10 games, Robert is hitting .489 and has only struck out 4 times (in 45 at bats). Promoting him right now isn't rushing him. He's ready.

If you don't play Abrams at SS, then he's probably nowhere close to being worth the #3 pick.

Yes, this gets to the jist of it. Abrams value to the White Sox down the line will probably be as a trade chip to bring in a pitcher. Vaughn's likeliest scenario is as the White Sox starting first baseman. An Abrams trade could really help the Sox at some point, but I'd rather they take the guy who will one day be on the team.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect anyone to have a .400+ OBP at the major league level, even current MLB all stars. Some do, and Vaughn eventually could, but it shouldn't be expected.

Let's say the Sox draft Abrams and both he and Vaughn develop more or less as expected. Will people favoring Abrams still be happy with the pick if, 2 years from now, Vaughn is hitting something like .270/.350/.475 for the Tigers, while Abrams is hitting something like .285/.340/.400 at A+ with quality defense and stolen bases? Some probably would still be happy with the Abrams pick, but I wouldn't be in that scenario.

I think Collins will be a .220/.320/.430 type hitter in the majors, with 20-25 homeruns, but also top 10 in the league in strikeouts on an annual basis. That he's only hit .233 over 300 minor league games (even with the great walk rate), doesn't make me think he'll ever hit better than .220 or so in MLB, and possibly much worse.

I really think people are glossing over the first base issue. There seems to be a general feeling that the Sox will simply sign a CJ Cron or Derek Dietrich or someone off the scrap heap and he will suddenly rake, or that Jose Abreu won't continue to decline, or that this will be an easy position for the Sox to fill. I'm not confident at all that the Sox would be successful in signing JD Martinez or any other player viewed as a quality first basemen, or trade for a good one. Vaughn could certainly bust or disappoint, but people a lot smarter than me think he has a good shot of being an above average bat at first base, as soon as late next year or early 2021. I think passing on Vaughn in part because it's assumed that the Sox will have no problem getting production from first base down the line would be a mistake.

For those in favor of the Sox drafting Abrams, I'm curious what you propose the Sox do at first base in the coming years. The options would seem to be (1) signing a declining 33 year old to a 3-4 year extension, (2) keeping and extending a player currently hitting .172, (3) transitioning Collins to first base, although he's never played the position and almost certainly won't have the bat to be a benefit there, (4) hoping Burger can develop into a quality first basemen, despite the same concerns with Collins plus the unknown of his recovery from injury, or (5) signing one of the aging, mediocre-at-best, free agent first basemen. All terrible options in my opinion. While you don't draft strictly for need at the big league level, people are burying their heads in the sand if they don't see that first base is going to be a huge need in the coming years (hopefully contending years), while shortstop is not.

It's not about deking the Orioles, it's about making Vaughn's camp think there is a real chance he could slip to 5, which has a slot value of $6,180,700. The greater the chance they think that could happen, the more likely it is that they'd be willing to strike a deal with the Orioles for any amount over that.

I'm at the point where as long as the Sox take whoever of Rutschman, Vaughn, and Witt is still available at 3, I'll be happy. I really think those guys are the clear top 3 at this point. No point in fretting over which one the Sox get. The Orioles and Royals will make their decision for them.

I know I'm in the minority, but I think that a team absolutely should look at its MLB roster (and organization as a whole) when making a draft decision at the top of the first round, not just go with BPA. Two reasons for this. First, BPA is a subjective concept. When comparing a high school position player and a college pitcher, how do you determine which is the best player available? Apples to oranges. You can go off of ranking services (like Fangraphs), but those guys have all been wrong before and will be again. They have Abrams ranked higher than Lodolo, so Abrams is the BPA between the two? Just an opinion. Second, when you stick religiously to BPA (namely on the position side), you're bound to run into situations where you have to move guys off the best positions. This arguably happened last year when the Sox drafted Madrigal (who I personally thought was the BPA at 4). That put a lot of pressure on the Sox to move Moncada to third. That seems to have worked out, but it could have failed miserably. Had they signed Machado, what would the answer have been? Move Moncada to the outfield? Trade Madrigal? Anderson might be turning into an elite shortstop before our eyes. With the subjectivity of BPA, does it really make sense to draft Witt when Anderson's under team control for the next 6 years? A lot of Witt's value is in his defense at short (and similarly Anderson), and the Sox would have to move one of those guys.

It's hard to go wrong with any lineup construction when talking about these players, but I think I'd prefer this at the top: 1. Robert 2. Madrigal 3. Moncada 4. Jimenez I've always liked having a leadoff hitter with both power and speed. That puts the pressure on the starting pitcher from the very first pitch, and you can put your team up 1-0 one batter in. Plus, with Madrigal's contact skills, he seems like an ideal hit-and-run guy when Robert is on base, which they wouldn't be able to take advantage of nearly as much if Madrigal was leading off.

At what point do you take the kid gloves off. The Sox shouldn't be trying to insulate these guys from adversity. They should be throwing them into adversity to see who sinks and who swims. That's the point of the minor leagues. Are they really trying to develop platoon players here?!? Rutherford and Sheets should be playing every day. This is the time for them to be facing left handed pitchers. To find out if they suck against left handed pitching or not.

The second the Sox decide that Robert is ready for AA, they will promote him and make him the everyday CF in Birmingham. None of the guys you mention will have any bearing on that outcome regardless of how they are faring.

Not sure if I buy this, but could be true if the Royals really don't want to draft another 1B because of Pratto, and would rather go college than high school (they went college heavy last year).

Nolan Gorman may be the guy that teams look back on with regret for not drafting. I know he was in the conversation as a potential top 5 pick at one point before falling off. Right now he looks like he could be a star.

I don't hate the idea of trying to strike an underslot deal with Nick Lodolo at #3. I'm not particularly enamored with either prep shortstop or the crop of college outfielders, and Andrew Vaughn has come back down to earth. I'm optimistic that the Sox will have a good offense in the near future. Pitching is what worries me.

Tomorrow has such a similar feel to 2017. The rain will be on and off, so there will be this constant tease that the game will be played. They may even take the tarp off and warm up..........then put the tarp back on because more rain is developing. Eventually it will be called. The Sox need to understand that they have discretion to postpone the game early and not go through this dog and pony show. A repeat of 2017 will just do more to damage the franchise and will cost them money in the long run.

I have opening day tickets but I will not be going tomorrow. I went on opening day 2017 and I will never do that again. If the Sox try to squeeze the game in and have poor attendance, it's their own damn fault. If they move the game to Friday either tonight or early tomorrow morning, then I will go on Friday and buy food/drinks.

Moncada has looked nothing short of great so far this year at third. He played all of 8 games for Boston, and committed 1 error.