Perfect Vision

He'll be in the Opening Day lineup. They'll put someone on the DL with something between now and then.

I think this is right. The rumored deal doesn't make a whole lot of sense under the current system. This move would seem to be in anticipation of changes to the CBA that would lead to higher and more fair salaries for younger players/those with less MLB service time. Also, we know that the Sox love cost-certainty. Being able to lock in Eloy's salary for the next 8 years is probably very appealing to them.

Just in case people want a laugh, here's the inevitable closure tweet.

I'm not going to dig through these threads, but I know Chris Camello tweets have been linked before and he was wrong.

FWIW, in this timeline: Phillies = White Sox Dodgers = Yankees Giants = Padres It's just all so familiar.

I also think it's possible that Hahn and perhaps JR are suffering from the same thing a lot of us fans do -- falling too much in love with our own prospects. I'm sure Hahn has dreamt of a future where all these prospects that he's acquired become great major leaguers. To acquire Harper means, in all likelihood, to eventually trade most of the group of Rutherford, Adolfo, Basabe, and Gonzalez. I hope that's not a factor in whether to go after Harper or not, but I'm afraid it might be (especially with all his talk of watching the prospects "bloom" and whatnot). He didn't have to deal with that in pursuing Machado, since the system doesn't have any legit 3B prospects.

The risk to the Sox if Harper were to leave in 3 years is that between 2019-2021, the Sox trade their OF prospects like Adolfo and Rutherford and one of them ends up becoming a very good MLB outfielder, or that they end up not signing some other free agent outfielder like Nick Castellanos who ends up becoming a great long term solution for another team. IMO the risk of those things happening is low. The more likely scenario is that 3 years from now they will be in the same situation they are in today, looking for a good long term solution in right field. Or maybe even in a worse situation if they end up giving a bad contract to someone like Yasiel Puig. So might as well have Harper for the next 3 years and let the chips fall where they may when the opt out comes up.

If news breaks in the next 24 hours that the Sox have signed Harper to a 10/325 deal with a 3 year opt out, and we find out shortly after that the Phillies wouldn't give the opt out and that's why he chose the Sox, how would you feel? How do you think Phillies fans would feel? This tells you everything you need to know.

I have a bad feeling that they're going to throw a lot of money at Puig, Ozuna, or Castellanos because they need someone to play RF for them and none of Adolfo, Rutherford, Basabe, etc. take a big step forward this year.

I would personally prefer the Sox to offer something like 10/360 with a later opt out (or none at all), but there is little chance JR would be willing to go there. Their best and perhaps only chance to get Harper would be to give him the opt out that he wants after 3 years. If he does end up opting out after 2021, you cross that bridge when you come to it.

According to Bob, opt out has been a sticking point for the Phillies. Sox really need to step up and give the opt out after 3 years if the Phillies won't. Could be the opening they need to win this thing despite the Phillies' potential willingness to offer more money.

I feel like I'm going to be really disappointed all over again if/when Harper signs with the Phillies for 10/330. It's clear as day that he really doesn't want to go there. Boras is begging for someone else to come in with a competitive long term offer. I also get the strong impression that 10/330 is just about as high as the Phillies would go. If the Sox matched and the Phillies were told they had to go to 10/350 or something, I really think they would bow out and sign Keuchel instead (and possibly Kimbrel also).

Just for my own peace of mind, I'm trying to go through how things could have changed in the pursuit of Harper so that the Sox are not now aggressively in on him: 1. Despite reports of Harper turning down a $300 mil offer from the Nats, the Sox actually believed they'd be able to sign him for less money if they gave an awesome power point presentation and Jim Thome told him how great JR is. At the winter meetings, Boras told the Sox to pound sand. 2. It was all a giant head fake in their pursuit of Machado, in that they planned to use Harper as leverage in their Machado negotiations. They never had serious intentions about signing Harper. 3. At some point this offseason, JR had a conversation with John Middleton in which it was expressly or implicitly decided that the Sox would focus on Machado and the Phillies would focus on Harper. 4. After the Machado failure, Sox ownership and front office are so angry and disappointed that they've simply decided to throw in the towel for the offseason, regardless of what happens with Harper's market. 5. Something happened or was said in one of the meetings or phone calls between the Sox and Harper's camp to make the Sox think that Harper wasn't a fit, or that trying to sign him was futile. 6. The Sox are convinced that the Phillies will top any bid the Sox make, so they've decided to just put themselves in a locker rather than let the Phillies do it to them.

Really seems like it's going to be the Phillies. Unlike the Machado saga, just doesn't seem like there's going to be a San Diego that swoops in at the end with a big offer.

Imagine listing your house for sale for $250,000, based on a thorough market evaluation and comps in your neighborhood. Someone seemingly very interested then makes a formal offer.........of $125,000. That's what the Sox did. It's understandable starting below what you may ultimately be willing to offer, but what the Sox did was insulting. Edit: In this little analogy, the Padres initial offer was probably about $200,000, and they eventually upped it to $235,000 or so to get the house. The Sox eventually increased their offer to $190,000, and suggested a bunch of clauses about how if the refrigerator doesn't break for the next 10 years, they'd add another $5k.

Only chance is if Hahn told Boras that, after the Machado debacle, they don't want to be publicly linked to Harper and that if Boras were to leak that the Sox were making an offer, they would deny it and walk away.

This may have been mentioned already, but there's reason to believe that Lozano asked the Sox if they could go 10/300, they said no (but that they could increase their current offer), the Padres said yes, and Lozano closed with the Padres. If that's the case, then I can see why Lozano wouldn't have reached back out to the Sox. I don't think we can assume that had Lozano made a last phone call to Hahn, that the Sox would have matched the Padres.

I'm pissed about the Machado debacle, but I hope some of these prospects become stars at the MLB level, and that they sign extensions with the team that buys out some of their free agent years. That will never happen if negativity infects the organization. Management and ownership needs to hear the boos all season, but I hope everyone cheers hard for the players and the atmosphere in the clubhouse is good.

Which makes the whole thing even more confusing. The plate appearance thing they were trying to do could mean only one of two things -- either they were concerned about Manny potentially missing a lot of time later in his career with injuries (a legitimate concern, but something covered by that insurance policy), or they had every intention of manipulating those plate appearance with a platoon partner or otherwise if Manny was under performing (in which case, yeah, no wonder no one wants to play for you).

Yes but I imagine the idea with the signing bonus was to make whatever state taxes Manny has to pay with this contract somewhat equivalent to whatever Manny would have had to pay with the Sox contract. They found a way to get around the tax obstacle when everyone assumed they would have to offer substantially more money to make it even with the Sox offer.

Those are some sour grapes.

The Padres got around the tax issue by making $20 mil of the first year's 30 a signing bonus (so not taxable in California), and reduced the risk of the contract by buying an insurance policy on it. Now that's creativity. Not whatever Hahn and company were trying to do with plate appearances in year 9. No reason that the Sox couldn't follow that blueprint and take out an insurance policy on Harper's contract, which could ease their minds about those last couple years. From the Machado offer, it definitely seems like it's the 10 years that's the problem, not the AAV. The Sox have some intriguing outfield prospects. I've enjoyed following their time in the minors so far. But to pass on Harper because you have Adolfo, Gonzalez, Rutherford, Basabe, and Walker is crazy talk. One of those guys might become a decent regular some day, but none will become even half the player that Harper is. Get Harper, continue to let those guys develop, then trade from that surplus to address an area of need.

This is exactly right. It seems funny to compare it to a fantasy sports league, but for those that have participated in auction leagues, the mentality is the same. There is always at least one owner who is determined to get a premium player. He reads all of the fantasy magazines and websites to see what the appropriate price is, figures it into his budget, psyches himself up to spend that amount, and then.....is shocked when the bidding blows by that number. He doesn't get the guy and leaves the auction angry and confused. This, ladies and gentlemen, is Jerry and Rick.

As it turns out, no one wanted Moustakas last year. Not even the Royals wanted him. They threw him $5 mil because they felt bad for him. Boras wins more than he loses. He got the Red Sox to add $10 million to the offer to JD Martinez last year when literally no one else other than the Red Sox had been connected to him for months. When it's finally go time on Bryce, someone is going to come in big.

Could be. If reports are to be believed, Harper has turned down multiple offers north of $300 recently. My guess is that both the Phillies and Padres made offers between $300-$325. I think Boras is looking for $350 and that someone will eventually give it to him.