Perfect Vision

At the end of the day, Bryce is going to get a deal larger than Stanton's (my guess is $350-$375) and we're all going to say "well of course that was going to be the final deal all along." He's not going to end up with a number lower than Manny's. No chance.

Could be the price tag, but I think there's very little chance that Harper said thanks but no thanks to the Sox (or any other team, contender or otherwise). He's taking the biggest offer, whoever gives it to him.

A lot of people don't like Boras, but he is our best friend right now. He is the voice of Soxtalk haha. Where Hahn failed, Boras is the one who is going to successfully convince Jerry to greenlight a huge offer for all of the reasons that we've been discussing for months.

Have to think Boras is trying to get the Sox in. He wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't give the Sox a day to lick their wounds and then spend a day or two trying to convince Jerry why Harper will be the answer to all his problems.

This is a very good post, but I'm afraid you're making assumptions of reasonableness and logic at a time where none exists. I tend to think that the Sox were only ever willing to sign one of these guys, were overconfident that they were going to get Machado, were shell-shocked when they lost out on Machado, and are in such a state of defeat and self-doubt right now that they simply don't have the intestinal fortitude to go through that again with Harper. Hahn's statement of not wanting to drive up the price on the Phillies is completely nonsensical, but I don't think there's any hidden agenda. He's just not in a good place mentally and can't think of anything reasonable to say about why they aren't pursuing Harper.

To believe this is to believe that the Sox thought the Nationals $300 million offer, and Harper's decline of it, was a complete fabrication. I wholeheartedly think that the Sox mishandled the negotiations with Lozano, but I very highly doubt they ever thought they could get Machado or Harper for the prices you mention.

"We worked tirelessly, but sometimes it doesn't work out." "I'm proud of our efforts." "We like the guys we have this year." "We will continue to pursue premium talent in free agency." There, now no one needs to waste their time listening.

So the Sox can now be labeled quitters this offseason as well as losers. I'd like to officially nominate #seatatthetable as the official hashtag of the 2019 season.

Sox 2 days ago: We're going to go down swinging. Sox today: We're not going to bid on Harper because we'd probably lose.

Okay, reasons for us to still be optimistic about Harper: 1. The Sox non-tendered Avi. They didn't do that to sign Adam Jones, and it's highly doubtful they did it to give Palka 150 starts there. 2. The Sox met with and recruited Harper at a time when it was already known that Harper had turned down a $300 million offer. Kenny's comment yesterday doesn't make any sense in regards to Harper. 3. The Sox sent Jim Thome to court Harper. IMO they don't do that to not be involved now, when Harper's market really hasn't changed much since that meeting. 4. Bucket said in early January that the Sox felt good about where they were with Harper. Rabbit tweeted yesterday that Reinsdorf had budgets in place for signing both Harper and Machado. 5. The Phillies have their limits. We saw it with Corbin, we saw it with Machado, and Klentak said as much yesterday. They are not unbeatable. 6. After the fall out from yesterday, I fully expect that Boras will reach out to Hahn and/or Jerry. Boras is our best friend right now. His specialty is generating interest when the current interest might be low.

Exactly. If there is truth to that offer, it sends a terrible message. Can you imagine what Manny and Lozano must have been thinking when they got that offer -- the reason the Sox are doing it this way is because, if you are not still playing at an elite level, they intend to manipulate your plate appearances so those options don't vest. What an awful message to send (but I think it's entirely possible that Hahn and co. didn't even realize it).

I appreciate your level-headedness, but in this case I really think you're giving the front office and ownership too much credit. All indications are that they screwed this up. It was a combination of unwarranted arrogance, cheapness, and incompetence in reading the market. A big part of me thinks they won't be heavily involved with Harper for the simple reason that there would be a perception that a large winning bid by them was panic for missing out on Machado, and they have too much personal pride for that. They'd rather try to spin a story that their offer to Machado was the best offer and it's not their fault that Machado went elsewhere.

If the Sox aren't willing to offer an opt out, then it's totally fair to question their intelligence. When Manny can exercise his opt out, he'll be entering his age 31 season with an existing deal of 5/150. Would he get more than that on the open market? It's possible, but I highly doubt it. Chances seem low to me that that opt out will be exercised, so the Padres don't lose anything by adding it to the deal (or it least have made a smart, calculated low-risk concession). Even if you have to give an opt out to Harper after 3 or 4 years, if the total deal is something like 10/350, there's a good chance it's not exercised. And if it is exercised, it's probably because the Sox have continued to be a poor baseball team, in which...............the team should want Harper to exercise the opt out so they can move on.

I'm truly concerned that the Sox front office and ownership doesn't understand the difference between a 10 year contract given to a 26 year old and a 10 year contract given to a 29/30 year old. There is every reason to believe Harper will still be a very productive player at 35 (overpaid yes, but still a good contributor to the team). But it seems the Sox have a problem with going 10 years as a principle no matter what the circumstances or age of the player. They were willing to guarantee Adam Dunn's age 34 season. Enough said.

10/350 probably gets Harper. It really is as simple as that. They were prepared to offer Machado $31.25 mil AAV for the next 8 years. This is the same thing as that, less one Jon Jay-type every year, and with just 2 additional years where, though he'll be on the decline, we'll still get to watch him reach hit and homerun milestones and cement his HOF status.

Kenny said he was shocked by the decision and thought the Sox had the high offer. Where was it reported that the agent today asked them to match?

Something else that shouldn't be lost here: Hahn, KW, and JR just got outplayed. From the sounds of it, they were confident that their offer last night would be enough. They made a critical error in judgment in thinking the Padres would not offer a guaranteed 10/300. If they had thought that, they might have made a better offer. Do we know for a fact that Lozano called Hahn this morning and gave him an opportunity to beat the Padres?? Didn't Kenny say he learned of the deal on twitter?? It might not have been cheapness that did them in, but incompetency in reading the Padres interest.

It is absolutely fair to fault Hahn and KW for raising the expectations of the fan base if they knew JR wouldn't go above $300 million. A competent front office would know that there was a good chance that Machado would get that type of offer from at least one team, and would make appropriate comments to the media downplaying their own chances.

Anyone remember Hahn's comments earlier this offseason about how these contracts will end up being extremely creative? Turns out he was dead wrong. While they were trying to get all cute with incentives and swell opts, Machado ends up signing an incredibly straight forward deal -- $300 mil, 10 years, even $30 mil per year, opt out after 5. If they are in at all on Harper, I hope they learned a valuable lesson.

I do not expect the Sox to get Harper. With that said, the Sox prepared that video presentation for Harper, met with him several times, and sent Jim Thome to recruit him, at a time when they knew that Harper had turned down a $300 mil offer from the Nationals (if reports are to be believed). This does support the idea that the Sox are prepared to go over $300 for Harper. Or they are just terribly incompetent.

It's Jerry's money, but if Hahn and Kenny were aware all along that Jerry wasn't willing to go to $300 million, then they were absolute fools in how they handled the expectations of the fans. Their comments and demeanor were always so confident, from the winter meetings on. Is it any wonder fans are so pissed right now?!?! It is directly related to our raised expectations. If they would have said that they are still trusting the rebuilding process, but that they would explore all free agents this offseason to get a feel for their price, fans would have had more tempered expectations. If you miss, no biggie. If you hit, everyone is ecstatic. How they didn't understand that that was the right way to play it...I'll never know.

That Ken Rosenthal tweet is probably worth 100 times more than any Bowden or Heyman tweet (and 10,000 times more than any Chris Camillo or J Michael Robertson tweet). He chose his words carefully. Phillies and Padres ownership want Harper more than Machado and they get the final say over Klentak and Preller. Reinsdorf is on board with making Machado the priority. We're at the end. Things are in a VERY good place for the Sox.

The Dodgers have a lot of flexibility with their roster. Verdugo and Bellinger could very well become the everyday corner outfielders, with Muncy at 1B and Hernandez at 2B. Chris Taylor would move into a super utility role, and be the primary backup for just about everyone. Pederson is expendable and I don't think the absence of Toles will affect that.

I think everyone should settle down for the time being. It appears that the Padres have the highest bid on Machado right now. But Machado remains unsigned, and we haven't gotten any reports that the Padres and Machado are closing in on a deal. Which means that the Sox haven't told Lozano that they are not going to top the Padres offer.

Heyman has called Philly the "favorite" for Harper no fewer than four times in the last 24 hours. Just speculation, but that seems like textbook leveraging of Philly to me if this info is coming from Boras. No idea if the Sox are still in it, but it really seems like Boras is trying to get someone else to win this thing.