Perfect Vision

Guys this may take two more days or even until Wednesday.

Sometime recently people began using OPS as the sole and exclusive determiner of a player's value. It's not. Anyone who judges Madrigal based only on OPS is going to be disappointed in his career.

If the Sox are serious about Machado, then I would actually expect today to be a day of nothing. Yesterday was a message loud and clear to the Sox -- your current offer isn't the best offer. So today should be the day that Hahn and Lozano are working behind closed doors to try to get a deal done (or at least top the Padres).

One bright side to all this: If the Sox are forced to pay more here at the eleventh hour, I think it makes it less likely Machado exercises his earliest opt out. Without the Padres, the Sox may have gotten him for 7/220 or something, but Machado reports to camp disgruntled and already in the mindset of leaving in a couple years to seek what he's really worth.

I wouldn't think so, but for all we know they may have put in all that groundwork at a time when they felt Manny to the Yankees was a strong possibility. As soon as they knew the Yankees were out, they may have backed off discussions with Harper and put all their focus on getting Manny.

If Phillies are all in on Harper, and Sox still believe they are in a great position with Machado, then it's very hard for me to believe that Hahn will offer what will be necessary to get Harper away from Philly.

I can damn near guarantee you that after Harper signs, this account's last tweet on the subject will be something along the lines of "was told Cubs were given final opportunity to match, but Theo decided it was not best use of team resources. Smart decision by Theo."

Seems like a worthwhile bump.

I don't think that's the case at all. As you get closer and closer to Opening Day, history shows that it's the players that give in, not the teams.

It was Chris Russell (so not a rando). Quotes are on the last page of the Harper thread.

I find it at least believable that the Machado deal could end up being around 8/240. I don't find it believable that Harper's deal could be that.

Harper to Giants makes sense.....oh, wait....

I don't find anything wrong with it, because Harper and Boras don't have a right to know what the terms of Machado's deal are. You're arguing that Boras has a right to know those terms so he can try to use them to get a better deal. Not the case. I also didn't know Lozano or anyone else has an affirmative duty to inform the Phillies or anyone else that his client isn't signing with them. Interesting theory there.

Setting aside Lozano's morals for a minute (which are questionable at best), please direct me to the place in the CBA that says when a deal has to be announced, or that a deal has to be announced in a certain time if there is a chance that another player can use the terms of that deal to his advantage. You're conflating these markets. They are separate markets. They are not related. They only seem that way because the same teams are in on both guys.

You keep saying "fake negotiate." That's not what's happening. The Phillies have an offer out to Manny (we think). End of story. There's no negotiating happening right now. They are just waiting, and possibly not even engaging with Lozano themselves right now because they are more focused on Harper. If Lozano told the Phillies that Manny would sign with the Sox unless they increased their offer, and then, nothing, no announcement, then what do the Phillies know exactly?

If neither Lozano or Hahn confirm a deal is done, and none of Rosenthal, etc. report it, then what exactly do the Phillies know? What does Boras know?

It seems like an exercise in futility, but there are two very good reasons to not announce a Machado deal before a Harper deal: Boras would use the terms of the Machado deal to his advantage. He would almost certainly set it as a floor. The Phillies would likely panic into offering Harper more money, if they had confirmation that Machado was off the market.

A couple thoughts on your post: The Sox offer isn't going away, but the Phillies very well could. If they sense that they can get Kimbrel and/or Keuchel at a price that they like, they might change directions. If Tulo gets hurt, the Yankees will just find a cheap bandaid to replace him. He's only serving as a placeholder until Didi returns. If the SS/3B of a contender suffers a season ending injury during spring training, would they really respond by offering Manny a 8-10 year, $300 mil contract? Seems pretty far fetched. I personally don't think either Harper or Machado have anything to gain by waiting another month.

Aren't the Phillies already on the hook for something like $5 million this year for Franco?

There's been a lot of talk about how the Yankees would be able to make their infield work if they signed Machado, but it seems a fair thing to ask of the Phillies as well. Wouldn't a Machado signing pretty much necessitate a Franco trade, and it's getting a little late in the offseason for that. Wouldn't anyone interested in Franco just sign Moustakas instead?

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler did not shoot down the possibility of opening up the third-base job to a best-man-wins competition between Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery. “Those are conversations that we’re having right now,” Kapler said Wednesday. “There is some competition at third base and that’s a conversation that I’ll have with Mikey and I’ll have with Scott. So to answer your question directly, yes.” May all just be smoke and mirrors, but if Renteria was quoted as saying he and Hahn have been having conversations about a competition at third between Yolmer and Rondon, there would be mass hysteria on Soxtalk.

Do you think anything would be different if the Sox were coming off a 90+ win season? It doesn't have to do with winning or losing. It never did. It's that the Sox aren't a high profile team like the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, etc. who get all the media coverage and fawning.

I think you're giving the Sox and Manny too much credit here. I don't think there's any sort of master plan of social media diversions. The simplest and probably correct explanation for the empty locker next to Alonso and Jay is...they're leaving it open for Manny. The simplest and probably correct explanation for the black and white gloves is...Manny ordered Sox-colored gloves because he's signing with the Sox, and Rawlings didn't feel like they needed to check in with Manny, Lozano, or the Sox before posting it.

It's all bullshit! Olney says "the feeling is the Chicago White Sox are a safety net..." Whose feeling?!?! Yours Olney? Someone in the Yankee organization (since he's obviously at the Yankee's camp)? I would love for him to articulate why the Phillies are a more preferred destination, because that's what he's implying here. I doubt anyone told him that. It's his own bias.