Perfect Vision

Some noteworthy dates that are coming up for the Sox: February 13 - Pitchers and catchers report February 18 - Position players report and first full squad workouts February 23 - First spring training game March 24 - Spring training ends, depart Camelback My guess is that the signing occurs between the 13th and 18th, but I wouldn't be surprised if it bumps up against the first spring training game.

Did someone reputable actually say that there was an agreement in principle and Dodgers were just waiting for Realmuto resolution? Or was that just Soxtalk speculation?

I'm just curious why they would do this deal now when it appears they weren't willing to do it a month ago, if part of the plan was to show Harper/Machado a better 25 man roster. To me this feels like the Phillies caving on the price, not the Marlins lowering their price.

I think at the beginning of the offseason, when Harper and Machado were expecting big offers from multiple teams, ancillary factors (like the competitiveness of the teams) figured to play a much bigger role in the decision. Now that we have seen the weakness in their markets, I think their decisions will come down entirely to who offers the most money. I have a hard time buying that the Phillies are acquiring Realmuto right now as some sort of enticement to Harper.

It's interesting that the Phillies were seemingly out on Realmuto and then re-engaged the Marlins, and are now on the verge of acquiring him. Probably because they weren't willing to include Sixto before and now they are. Makes you wonder what changed. Gives some credence to the theory that they may be feeling Machado and Harper slipping away and are changing course.

Funny how MLB twitter works. One guy gets the scoop, then everyone else scrambles to confirm. Within the hour, all the big names have tweeted about it and it's pretty much a done deal. Amazing how fast it happens.

How often do pitchers get traded after reporting to camp? I can't think of any examples off the top of my head. Would seem to be a big risk for the trading team since pitcher injuries are common during spring training as they build up arm strength.

This is going to get done today.

It's possible that the Sox will have no choice but to give an opt out early in the contract. Manny may well say that he'll sign a shorter term deal with someone else without it. But for the Sox to go into this without doing everything they can to keep him long term (including offering more years/money to avoid opt outs) is crazy IMO. Having him walk in 2021 when the Sox WS contention window is opening would be a travesty.

If the Sox had the choice of signing Manny for 7/200 with an opt out after year 3, or signing him for 8/250 or 9/275 with an opt out after year 5 or no opt out at all, they would be fools for not choosing the latter.

I'm not sure either how that is an advantage to the Sox. If anticipated changes to the CBA make it more likely that Manny would opt out after a couple years and re-enter free agency, I'm not sure why he wouldn't then be more willing to sign a shorter term deal with the Yankees or other high profile destination.

I expect there will be opt outs or swellopts in these contracts, but ultimately I don't think they will be exercised by either Harper or Machado. The reason these guys are about to get enormous contracts is because of their youth, plain and simple. Teams almost never get the opportunity to buy a star player's age 26-28 seasons through free agency; therefore, whoever signs these guys will be willing to pay a premium on the mid-30s years in order to get those age 26-28 seasons. If these guys opt out of their contracts when they are 29 years old, teams will no longer be willing to pay that premium on the mid-30s years and they will be getting offers similar to what JD Martinez got from the Red Sox last year (5/110). From a numbers perspective, Martinez' last 4 seasons before he became a free agent were comparable to Harper's. Both of these guys may prefer different teams/markets to the ones they will likely be signing with this offseason, but they would almost certainly be taking less money to play there if they opt out in 3 years or so. I don't think they will do that. There is some speculation that the new CBA, if/when it's agreed to, could change the market for these guys such that they would want to opt out. However, I think it's more likely that the new CBA will change the rules regarding pre-free agency salaries, so younger players will be paid more fairly in accordance with their performance. Just my opinion.

Next time I text my wife to stop spending so much money, I'm going to tell her it was a *typo/fat finger/autocorrect and I really typed love you.

I wonder if the seriousness of the Padres interest in Machado is at all tied to them acquiring Realmuto. My guess is Realmuto is traded before Machado signs. Pulling off that trade would be a sign that they want to compete this year, which could motivate them further to acquire Machado. If the Dodgers get Realmuto, I could see the Padres waiting until next offseason to make a splash.

Manny will go to the team that offers the most. Same as it ever was. The Padres are checking in. They are interested if the 7/175 amount is true, and the price doesn't go up much from there. Which means they are not a true threat to actually sign Manny IMO. If anything, the Padres being unveiled as the mystery team is a good thing. This potentially gives the Sox more certainty in what they are up against.

If the Dodgers were willing to trade both Ruiz and Verdugo, I think the deal would have been done a month ago. This sounds more like the Marlins have finally lowered their asking price. I still think the Dodgers ultimate plan is to acquire Realmuto for a Ruiz + package, and to trade Pederson for MLB-ready relievers.

I would expect Keibert Ruiz to be the centerpiece of this deal.

Joc is a valuable player with a very affordable salary. But if the Dodgers are committed to trading him prior to spring training, that's going to limit their options. How many teams are there that plan to contend this year and next (and so would be content on acquiring a 2-year control player), have a need at outfielder, and are willing to take on $5 million more in payroll at this point. Contending teams with limited payroll flexibility probably plan to use what remaining resources they have at the trade deadline. So it's possible that the rumored Sox offer is the best offer they've gotten.

Jerry is 83. It's even money he even knows what twitter is.

Rosenthal tweeted only 8 hrs ago that the Dodgers weren't close to trading Pederson. There are some big hints being dropped here that a Pederson deal will be announced tomorrow, but Rosenthal doesn't usually miss like that.

Semien hit .240/.293/.380 in his first taste of the big leagues with the Sox. In his four seasons with the A's, his prime years, he's hit .250/.312/.407. So maybe the A's aren't as smart as they think they are. Just because these teams do things differently than the Sox doesn't make them right.

With the likely swellopt provisions, I think both players will end up with 9-10 year deals.

Exactly, and I think that's an under reported aspect of the Alonso and Jay acquisitions. Those guys may make the White Sox more attractive to Machado, but it's also a strong signal to the rest of the league of the lengths the Sox are willing to go to in the Machado sweepstakes. If the Phillies or anyone else figures that the Sox will top any offer they make from this point forward, then it's easy to see why no one has apparently topped the Sox bid over the last month. I don't think any GM actually thinks that the Sox aren't ready and willing to raise whatever offer they have out to Machado.

I think this only has to do with the Sox not caving in to Lozano's demands. The Sox seem more than willing to wait this out. No doubt Lozano is doing everything he can to draw in other bidders or to scare the Sox into increasing their offer. It doesn't seem like he's succeeding in either, unless you buy the legitimacy of the "mystery team". But it seems to me that mystery teams only show up when actual teams can't be found. Manny isn't sitting out 2019, and he's not signing a short term deal. IMO, the longer this goes on, the better the Sox position. At some point, Lozano is going to have to re-engage the Sox on their current offer.