Perfect Vision

FWIW it was exactly one week ago - January 8 - that Levine wrote that a Machado decision was expected within a week according to his sources.

There has been so much smoke around the White Sox and Machado over the last 24 hours, you would think that if the Phillies or a mystery team had any inclination to top the Sox offer that they would be doing it very soon. Otherwise, it does seem like this is the end game.

Only dispute your last point. I'm a junkie now and powerless to turn off this forum.

Here's my personal take on what's happened: The Sox have had the best offer at something like 7/210 for a few weeks now. They were ready to go to 8/250 this weekend to get the deal done and felt confident that Manny would accept, which is why there was a lot of internal "source" confidence about early this week. Instead, Lozano took the new offer and immediately shopped it through Passan. The Sox front office, already frustrated, took it personally and I are now telling everyone in the media they know that their offer is only 7 years.

If the Sox offer is still just 7 years, and no one has jumped in to beat it in the last couple weeks, I would prefer to see the Sox raise it to something like 9/270 in exchange for pushing the earliest opt out to year 5-6, then to get a "great deal" at 7/220 but with an opt out after year 3-4.

Russell isn't their shortstop right now, Baez is. So they move Baez to 2B, and do what with Zobrist? Also, good luck finding any playing time at all for Daniel Descalso in that scenario. Harper is a bad fit for them and Machado is even worse.

In what must be extremely frustrating to Lozano, it's possible that Hahn has read this market perfectly -- that the Yankees were never seriously involved, that the Phillies true target has always been Harper (and they weren't going to make a play for both guys), and no "mystery team" was even going to come in for $200 mil -- and Hahn has stuck to his guns instead of panicking and raising the offer. We as fans may be underestimating how much Machado's johnny hustle comments and perceived dirty play during the postseason really hurt his value.

This is what I'm thinking as well. Everyone here could claim to be "right" if the formal offer hasn't changed, but Hahn has expressed a willingness over the phone to go to 8/250.

I admittedly can't remember the circumstances around those three players and whether those teams came out of nowhere at the end to sign them. I agree it's possible in Manny's case. But I think it's very unlikely. The luxury tax threshold has changed things and, as others have alluded to, front offices really need to plan for these type of contracts well in advance these days.

So there is some team that willingly skipped Manny's "free agency tour," managed to keep their interest from leaking to the media or their fans, and is now ready to drop a $250 mil + offer on Manny? I don't buy it.

I agree that Manny and Lozano are probably disappointed with the state of the market, but I question whether this would cause more teams to jump into the mix. $250 million may be below initial expectations of what Machado would get, but it is still a very, very large offer. I just don't see a team like the Padres being seemingly 100% out on Machado at $30/mil per over 10 years, but ready to jump in at $30/mil per over 8 years. I think this leak is all about the Phillies and whether they want to top it. In that way, perhaps Passan's indication that the Sox would be wiling to go 10 years will help the Sox. If the Phillies are debating whether to make a higher bid, but get the impression that the Sox would just come over the top again, they may just bow out now and focus exclusively on Harper. My concern is that the Phillies hold a lot of power right now, if they choose to use it. If they tell Lozano today that they want to see how things go with Harper this week before making a decision about whether to increase their offer to Machado, there's not a lot of risk to Lozano to wait if he doesn't think the Sox will pull their offer. That's why I expect to see more smoke about the Sox and Harper soon. Hahn has to try to convince Lozano that the Sox offer might disappear.

This is wrong. About 12 hours after Salisbury reported that Phillies were preparing to make a second offer, he edited his article to remove that statement. But MLBtr, beat reporters, and bloggers ran with the original (now changed) assertion that a second offer was coming. I don't think the Phillies have made a second offer.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffskversky/status/1084319103815438336?s=21

NotHahn, my man, I know it's snowing but it's been almost an hour since your post. How far away do you live from this 1 yr old?

Are we that early in the process though? I think Boras probably has a pretty good idea of the market at this point (or lack thereof), and he and Harper may have a number in their minds that they would agree to tomorrow. It could be as low as $330 mil at this point to ensure Harper the record. Middleton might be willing to do that now. As you say, there's a lot of pressure on the Phillies to make a splash and tomorrow seems like the ideal opportunity.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. You're not giving a deadline and you're not saying you wouldn't be willing to negotiate later. You're acknowledging the current uncertainty in the market with a Harper/Phillies meeting that could go in different directions. If Harper signs with the Phillies tomorrow, why would the Sox up their offer. You're giving Lozano/Manny a way to mitigate that risk right now if they want by offering the extra year.

Then what risk is there to the Sox? That they sign Manny next week to the same deal they are willing to sign him for today? Reports are that a Machado decision is expected very soon (yes, grain of salt). I'd prefer to see the Sox go for it now, then to take an attitude of seeing "how things play out." And there has to be some level of concern/doubt right now in Manny's camp that they'll lose any leverage they have if the Phillies reach an agreement with Harper this weekend.

I don't think it's being combative. It's also not a "take it or leave it." You're offering a carrot -- an additional year and $35 mil more -- if they agree today. The risk to them is that they possibly don't get that additional year and money if it's trending towards a Harper deal with the Phillies because the current Sox offer won't be beat. I wouldn't approach this in an adversarial way. I'd try to communicate that we want to come to an agreement today. JR has authorized the money. But if the market dries up, JR might not authorize more money later.

I don't think it's a bluff. You're not foreclosing the opportunity to increase your offer in the future, you're just reminding Lozano that if Harper and the Phillies make real progress tomorrow (not even necessarily a signed deal), that he may have no choice but to accept the Sox current offer. The incentive for the Sox to get this done today if they can is enormous IMO. If the Phillies come out of the meeting with Harper tomorrow not particularly confident in their chances of getting him, they are going to turn all their focus back to Machado and potentially start aggressively increasing their offer. I don't know if the Sox will be able to compete with them on a financial basis if they decide to go all in on Manny.

If the Sox have wiggle room to up their offer, now would be the perfect time to use it: "Dan, it's Rick. So it sounds like there's a real chance that the Phillies might reach an agreement with Harper tomorrow. John Middleton is going to be there, so I suppose anything could happen. If they do come to an agreement with Harper, it's possible that they'll jump back into negotiations with you, but maybe they won't. Maybe they'll even pull whatever offer they have on the table right now. Who knows? But listen, I talked to Jerry and we might be willing to increase our offer an additional year, to $275 mil total, if Manny is willing to agree to a deal today. Manny can wait longer if he wants, that's fine, but if the Harper/Phillies meeting goes well tomorrow and it seems they are moving towards their own deal, I can't guarantee that we'll be able to increase our current offer."

Dan's problem was that, for some reason, he trusted Manny's former teammate (possibly Delmon Young) as a legitimate source. As if Delmon Young would have any clue about the Yankee's interest or the status of negotiations. And then he stated Machado to Yankees as if it was 100% fact.

Agreed. Boras is using the Nats to drive up the price on the Phillies, and the Nats are happy to oblige to make Harper as expensive as possible for their division rivals.

I disagree. I think it would be very unwise for Manny to wait until the Phillies/Harper meeting. If John Middleton refuses to leave that meeting without Harper's signature on a contract, then Manny may be left with only the White Sox. It always seemed unlikely to me that the Phillies would seriously try to sign both. If Manny is willing to sign today, though, he could probably get the Sox to bump their offer one more year.

It sounds like you have some inside intel. Can you elaborate?