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Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run
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For a guy who could find himself out of the big leagues in 2 years I'd say so. The floor here is a lot lower than a typical FA. Ceiling also probably a little higher.
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I feel like pitching is so much easier to translate from a scouting perspective. The problem with international leagues is similar to the problem with colleges and etc. A guy can make a living off hitting pitches he'd never see in a major league game consistently. Additionally there's just not enough samples off top-tier stuff to draw any concrete conclusions about how they will really respond there.
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Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Sorry to spam; don't have much time to post/jump online these days so try to get it all out in a row! Lets use the Jags as an example. The Jags are a small market joke who just had one of the most embarrassing seasons of all-time under Urban Meyer. They had a QB that was solid though, they brought in a new coach, and now they've been in the hunt two years in a row. A one year turnaround. The NBA, I don't think I need to give examples of one player helping turn a franchise around. The NFL has a TON of players that matter, and the cap forces teams to make tough choices and turn over rosters which turns the league over. Sure an elite QB can carry a team for a decade, but those guys play anywhere that drafts them for the most part. Being bad you are rewarded with that. The important thing about everything above is it comes down to one thing; the fans feel like they always have a CHANCE. Oh my god, we're so bad but the next peyton manning is in this draft!!! In the NBA it's the exact same way, even with the lottery. This keeps engagement up and keeps teams always ready to go all-in. In baseball, a young core as an under market team might get you, what, three years? No way do you get a decade, or 5 years even like you can get from a star QB or an elite NBA talent just from the draft alone. In the NFL too, coaching can literally change your entire opportunity. Baseball needs a cap because they need to evolve and become a game that is decided by the players and not the owners, and the only way to do that is to make it so the financial playing field is even and teams can't load up or trim down to the studs. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Teams don't try to win because with no salary cap you have no salary floor. A salary cap is not a bad thing; it guarantees a fair distribution of revenues to players. It's better than what they have now and it would greatly help the sport and limit this tanking issue you talk about. Even if you tank you have to spend x amount of dollars. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
The MLB playoffs are a complete crap shoot. The NBA has less perceived parity because stars dominate the sport and one man can impact so much. The NFL is similar with the QB position -- great QB's are going to be in the hunt. Difference is, great QB's are everywhere, and great players in the NBA are everywhere. Baseball parity problems are different. The MLB is a lot like a college sport in that the same sets of teams are typically challenging every year but they can cycle and have a couple years where their young guys come together at the right time and they're good for 2-3 years before falling off into rebuild oblivion for another 8 years. The cycle between competitive/not-competitive is much more dramatic IMO because one player isn't going to change the tied via a draft, and if you don't spend it's your only way out so it's going to take time. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Do you follow the NBA? How has the middle class shrunk? -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
How mad are you if you're Toronto and you offered say 10 years 525? -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Another source said "the majority" of Ohtani's salary will be deferred in order to mitigate what the Dodgers are charged toward their competitive balance tax payroll on a yearly basis This sounds an awful more like a current-value 10 year 550 million type deal the more and more I read about it. 700 sounds big though, and it is, but it sure is a lot less 25 years from now (still a ton though!). -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I insulted you? Try to leave your feelings at the door before entering an online forum, kiddo. Shoehei generates revenue in ways MOST every other MLB player does not; hence why viewing anything like this in a "vaccum" is entirely meaningless. One of the biggest challenge baseball has in the USA is the marketability of it's stars; people just don't know star players because MLB does a horrible job marketing them and it's become a regional game. Shohei is a global brand who is an entire brand on his own in Japan. You are obtaining an entire market by acquiring Ohtani which is really valuable to a brand like the Dodgers who could greatly benefit from further expanding their global reach. This wasn't how much WAR will Ohtani give me --- that was probably about 60% of the equation. For most players, it's about 95-99% of the equation. Ohtani is also the first two way player in 100 years - comparing him to anyone else, again, in a vacuum just makes zero sense. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Absolutely but baseball was also the primary sport in town, and the competition was very limited. Baseball is deemed as a slower game to the modern era already - with less athletic opportunities - and making it so that only certain markets can acquire or maintain good/exciting players will eventually cause disinterest in the anti-competitive markets. This also isn't about just winning a World Series. The Dodgers have won the West every year but one since 2012. People always point to the Rays as an example/beacon for not spending; they've never won a World Series. They are held up because they can compete and keep fans engaged year-end and year out. That's what money is doing, it's buying engagement and exciting players. People for KIDS to be drawn to and try to be like. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
150+ million deferred for 25 years would mean a 10 year 580 offer would be nearly as competitive. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Agreed, and truthfully the issue isn't really at the top. I think most teams could spend between 150-200 million. I would like the gap to be a little smaller, but in that space it's a competitive game. The problem with no cap is you get no floor, and with no floor you allow for anti-competitive behavior. As I laid out a year or two ago, the lack of a cap is actually killing players now. It's creating this situation where very few get paid, but the overall distribution of revenues to salaries is lower than the other two major sports. The players would actually get MORE money if they agreed to a cap, because it would also force transparency from ownership and would force spending. The middle and bottom would be brought up, but the top would come down a bit. Baseball players are shooting themselves in the foot so that the top 3% of the league can make as much as possible. Truly America's Game lol -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Again, production and value is not defined universally across all contracts which is why this is meaningless. Relax, sport. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I think things can often change in a hurry, but as of today I agree with you and it will be the death of MLB as a main sport (and if I'm being honest, that grasp has weakened quite a bit in my lifetime already due to access and horrible horrible horrible marketing/leadership by MLB). One horrendous decision after the next - no highlights on social media, no videos on youtube, all rights reserved... blackouts everywhere, terrible cable deals causing fans in markets the inability to watch the game. I love baseball, but you just can't have a sport where teams are spending more on one players than some teams are spending on their entire team. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
All that said, if baseball does not institute some form of revenue sharing/soft cap and hard floor, the sport is going to die much more quickly than even most pessimists thought. The parity between a team like the Dodgers and the Pirates getting even more vast will be the death of the league. -
Ohtani Watch: Dodgers sign - 700M over 10yrs
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
People like you will never cease to amaze me. "In a vacuum it's a terrible contract." According to someone who has zero insight or knowledge into a single financial as it pertains to the sport of baseball or the Dodgers. Just sit this one out, champ. Please also explain how something like this is placed in a vacuum when value itself isn't defined by any baseline. -
Cease To Padres per Passan
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
His production for his age/level is really really impressive. He's also a 5'11 160 pound lefty starter. I'd consider that one of the more risky headliners you could get. -
Cease To Padres per Passan
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Unless they were getting like 4 other guys LIKE him, that would be an atrocious trade. 5'11 lefty starter? Pass. -
It actually makes complete sense to sign guys like Gio and Flaherty after trading Cease. If, for some reason, either of them find the velocity that has left them and caused them to become very hitable they become valuable assets at the deadline, and there's no risk to signing a one year deal. Cease would be traded because he has value, which is why they'd sign guys like gio and Flaherty. I think Gio has shown an ability to evolve so I'd have more faith in him being more creative and evolving, but Flaherty is done. Always hurt, bad shoulder, career not bouncing back in my opinion.
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Fat Lynn just signed for 10 million. Gio if it was 1 year would be 15-18 minimum.
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The problem with this, is Flaherty stinks and the problem with Gio is his stuff not his mechanics.
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I honestly cant believe DeJong got an mlb deal. Dejong hasn't been worth playing in 5 years.
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Cease To Padres per Passan
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I had no idea sox fans liked outman so much. Guy can't hit lefties, he's a high k high babip player career to date - not a great pair to have. He's fine, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he turned into a pumpkin. I'm on record as 100% out on Joc Outman Jr! -
Lance Lynn to StL on 1 year deal
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to Sleepy Harold's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I said what because you implied I said he didn't kill his pitchers because of his defensive war or something. When I never said anything about war. I'm not going to argue degrees of bad. If you think the Sox were at a huge disadvantage due to having a SS sitting in the avg pack, then you're struggling with the data. -
Lance Lynn to StL on 1 year deal
Look at Ray Ray Run replied to Sleepy Harold's topic in Pale Hose Talk
What? I couldn't care less about an individual season uzr rating. He wasn't good but he was far from killing pitchers success. His OAA was -1. 13 guys sit between +3/-3 in OAA. 6 more sit below that. Do unless 19 ss's kill their team a year... Most fielding metrics suck but I'll take oaa above drs and uzr and tim didn't rank high in oaa, he just wasn't a detriment to the team defensively which was my point.