Look at Ray Ray Run

Agree with you as well; I mentioned in another post but the stage clearly got too big and the guy was a nervous wreck. Pacing... hands on the knees... nervous face.. etc. He blew it and is being held accountable. In big spots every .01 run matters and renteria choking hurt the team in those spots. The termination was 100% warranted BUT it wasn't Rick renterias fault they didn't win it all.

Super bummed; opened this thread assuming the managerial candidate list news had been updated but it was just an opinion.

The umpires had a bigger impact on the White Sox win % in the playoffs than the Manager did. My point is essentially the Sox over performed - you will justify that performance as solely a representation of PD and career years and etc. Ricky didn't make optimal game decisions late in the season, but those decisions direct impact on the game is smaller than what it is represented as here. For example, in a 3-3 game in the 7th there were 42+ opportunities to do something prior, just counting outs, and there were multiple AB's with RISP, or multiple errors that put them in the spot; maybe a missed signed, or etc... you get the point. A game in which Renteria puts the wrong reliever in during the 8th, when the game is tied or Sox are up 1, but Madrigal made 2 errors early that led to 3 runs was not a game that Renteria "lost." And this is exactly where the idea that a manager loses all these games is nonsense. The Manager made an ERROR just like a player did. A certain amount of errors and that leads to an increase in expected runs against or decrease in runs for; enough of those added up and it can equal a win. A manager might impact some runs over the season, but he DIDN't lose the game in those games. The players had many more opportunities than the manager to make a difference, and they simply didn't get it done. The biggest difference too is that a managing error - even when egregious - isn't worth a whole run like a fielding error or baserunning gaffe. It's putting a guy who is 6% more likely to give up a hit, or 8% more likely to allow a run to score. It's not like the choice is between a guy with a .100 BAA and a guy with a .600 BAA. Renteria made a lot of errors down the stretch.

I agree with both of you, for the record .

I've posted the article here a few times but cooper is directly credited with helping turn it around in an August piece done by Fegan from two years back.

I mean, there's only no evidence if you ignore Giolitos own words.

Good info, thanks.

Thought that became pretty clear when I left the thread for hours and the conversation continued on between 6 other posters but apparently orlando has them all blocked

what are you even talking about? Go cry somewhere else. We were discussing a manager in a manager thread. Its not a tony la russa news only thread. If it were your posts in it are worthless as well.

Dude I answered the question twice. I'm not going to repeat myself just to carry on a never ending discussion.

Yeah, I agree to an extent. If you could get a DeGrom over depth at SP I'd likely do that. I just don't think Bauer is in that group. I'd like Gausman/Quintana over Bauer as well..

My problem with Gausman, as someone who has watched a lot of Gaus over the past few years, is he's a worser version of Javier Vazquez (low stranded rate, elevated HR rate, higher ERA than FIP); that's my favorite comp. Gausman has always been tantalizing because his stuff has been + but he's always gotten in trouble. For a while, the thought was Baltimore had just ruined another arm but then he went to Atlanta and was awful. Now, the changes could have taken time, and he was fantastic this year with the Giants - some of the best KK/BB rates in the game - but that ballpark helps a lot of shitty arms look better... although it couldn't help too much with the K's. I'd take Gausman over Stroman because I've always been a huge fan of the tools, and it's POSSIBLE - similarly to how I felt about Wheeler last year but on a smaller level - that Gausman actually has his best years in his low-mid 30's as a pitcher as he finally learned how to use his stuff and his mind to get batters out. Small pitchers really don't age as well either; Stroman already has broken barriers with his height, but I don't want to bank on a guy of his stature aging well. I'm not a fan of Bauer for what he'll cost; he's inconsistent, and a me-first guy. He cheated this year to increase his spin rate - don't mistaken that, he told you himself. That means his results are slightly artificial to me, if people want to enforce the substance on the ball rule for once.

Guy, I don't have a son. I was just messin' around. Lighten up, Francis. I presented my point multiple times; if you haven't grasped it yet, that's on you. Have a great weekend my man.

It's FRIDAY SS2k, and I'm taking a 3 day weekend after finishing up the midterms of my masters, and completing my first week with the new job! It's going to be soxtalk troll city today!!!!!!!! Get your popcorn ready! All jokes aside, please no La Russa. BOCHY! BOCHY! BOCHY!

My goodness, some things just go right over peoples heads. What tantrum?

For sure. In 10 years, if my son needs baseball lessons, I'll be sure to give you a call. Wouldn't want him learning from an uneducated, unathletic dork like myself.

There were more injuries this season than the average amount of injuries that occur over a 162 game season. Joe Maddon got fired because the Cubs had been stale - in their opinions - for a year+ and management wanted to light a fire under someones ass. Turns out the offense just wasn't good and it wasn't Joe's fault.

To learn from brilliant minds like yourself.

It's not a simple equation. Show me the equation bud. Show me what impact he had on the expected run rate and the expected win rate by going with one pitcher instead of the other down the stretch. Show me how many runs that would equal and what one run equals to your expected W/L over the course of a season. I love that you believe in your heart of hearts that you know, without a doubt, what the best statistical move is and that deviating from your view makes it wrong without a shadow of a doubt. You clearly don't grasp statistics while telling everyone how concrete your evidence is. Sequencing in baseball is entirely uncontrollable and 100% luck; this means that Renteria could make bad decisions and the sequencing could work in his favor, while he could make brilliant decisions and it could work against him.

Yes, I don't understand them enough. I don't understand the impact a manager can have on a baseball team, and I don't understand the managers role. I also don't understand analytics or statistics. Both of those things are entirely foreign to me; never played baseball through college, and I don't work in analytics now. High Five! Please help to educate me on what I'm missing. You should buy a baseball team, because you've found an edge so significant and no one else in the game has seen it; MANAGERS are underpaid and much more important to wins and losses than anyone in the game thinks. Get your bids in!

Let's rephrase this my fellow statistics loving soxtalker; momentum most certainly exists, as emotions can hurt or help performance but momentum can't be quantified therefore it need not be planned for and is entirely irrelavent for projecting future performance.

I'm not going to rehash this over and over, but when you are playing the majority of your games vs certain teams - as are they and every other team - your results vs those teams will have a significant impact on that teams record. Meaning the Sox record vs those teams - the dominance - had a lot to do with those teams have losing records; moreso than in a regular season where the schedule is more balanced.

Yes, agreed 100%. He got fired because when the moment got big, it was too big for him. Period, end of story. That doesn't mean he cost them tons of wins all year; it just means he wasn't suited to manage in those moments. Now, endless turnover is stupid and pointless and every study done in the financial world will tell you that constantly firing people in leadership positions is not good for sustained success. I think it's fine to say we wanted a new skipper now that our boat is 3 times as big and strong, though.

Why do people constantly compare the Sox and Bulls like this? The Bulls are an elite NBA brand. Possibly the most profitable team in professional sports over the past 30 years. The White Sox are, NOT FOR MUCH LONGER!, the second baseball team in town from viewership to attendance numbers. Gar Forman destroyed Derrick Rose and traded Jimmy Butler because you couldn't "build a contending team around him." HAHAHAHA He won the lottery - literally - and got a generational player who he helped to ruin by not supporting him publicly when shit hit the fan for him physically. It's also a little easier to build a roster that needs to have 5 good players.

The way it is now (not sure if it was then) if the team doesn't report that he sent an offer and used an agent and the league found out, the Sox would be penalized. Agree with you it feels petty and sounds like they should have let it go, but possible that they just reported it to protect their own ass.