Look at Ray Ray Run

Yeah; I don't think an extension makes sense for either side today. Moncada would be smarter to bet on himself one more year, duplicate his production and sky rocket his value. The Sox would be better off waiting to invest 200 million than investing 150ish now with some uncertainty about his sustained success. I think locking up Abreu and Robert actually makes it easier to extend Yoan as well; assuming this is a fun year for them. I think we're looking/talking about a Yoan extension next year and not this one and that's OK with me.

Betts fits their target demographic more than Springer - Hahn said the Sox feel comfortable giving huge deals to guys under 30. Springer being older might mean they are more hesitant to offer him; regardless, I think the Sox make another huge splash next off-season as they'll still have a ton of money to work with now that they locked up Robert.

And I said it before, but you just can't say this very often about the White Sox; they are the best in baseball at this and it's a really important and underrated aspect of rebuilding and sustaining success/window. The Cubs didn't extend anyone and now they are in a tough spot because they are up against the tax and they can't pay their young stars due to overpaid FA's. This is an excellent move by the White Sox to maximize their window, even if it does take on a bit more risk.

I love Robert, but all prospects have an inherent amount of risk attached. While I believe he's a safer prospect due to his 5 tool package, there's absolutely no guarantee he's a + player at the big league level. If he was below average, the Sox overpaid him by quite a bit. To use the poor Lewis Brinson comp that fangraphs fears, if he was anywhere near as bad as Brinson this would be an albatross of a contract. Obviously there's a lot of upside to cancel that out, but it's risky to guarantee 50+ million dollars to a guy who has never stepped foot on a big league field. There's a reason this is a record setting contract - as was Eloy's - and it's because the White Sox are one of the only teams in baseball willing to take on this kind of risk for their young stars.

Yeah, one thing I truly find fascinating about this organization is their risk assessment; Jerry is more comfortable guaranteeing someone like Robert, who has never played a big league game, nearly 100 million dollars total, than he is doling out long term deals for veterans. I think the logic here is that Hahn has shown that he succeeds doing this, and Jerry is happy to accept that risk because their is a big potential reward for it. FA contracts really don't have huge possible rewards as they are almost always paid market value. A guy like Robert may actually end up being worth 200 million so Jerry will take the shot on him. It's interesting how they assess risk, and to be honest it's honestly something the White Sox might be the best in all of baseball at doing.

BOOOOOM goes the dynamite!

8+6 is not more than 20 or 21. Neither gio or moncada can come close to matching because they were bad one year. I'm not projecting a 9 war season from yoan eirher. They'll get about 7-8 million each. Lopez about 4 million.

Even with arb salary growth, that would be crazy. Mookie had accumulated 21+ WAR in 3 seasons pre arb and he got 10 million dollars. Bryant got 11 million after an mvp campaign and 21 WAR over 3 years. Moncada and giolito cant come close to those numbers.

I think there are really only two possible outcomes for Robert: 1. The slider hurts him and he doesn't lay off it so he puts up like a 250/295/500 type slash line - still a 3ish WAR player - but his discipline hurts him this year until he makes further adjustments. 2. He is so damn talented that he can lay off it easily when it's actually hurting his production (which he hasn't had to do yet), he makes the quick adjustments and absolutely pummels mistakes for a 285/330/585 slash line because he's one of the most talented players on the planet. You can't really judge how a player will adjust when he's never had to make that adjustment yet. Some guys pick it up really quickly; some take a little time (like Eloy last year) and some take 800-1000 PA's to figure it out.

The one thing I've said about Madrigal more than any other is he is never ever overmatched - regardless of stuff or level. That should make his transition easier as he won't be working on approach as much as what pitches to attack to maximize his outcomes. His approach and hands are as good as it gets, and he won't get himself out and he won't get overpowered by anyone really.

Yeah, that team above is like a 95 win team. Hard to calculate WAR without defense, but assuming the same production defensively and on the bases: 1. Robert - 5.5 2. Moncada - 6 3. Abreu - 1 4. Grandal - 4 5. Encarnacion - 2.1 6. Eloy - 3.6 7. Anderson - 3.8 8. Mazara - 1.8 9. Madrigal - 2.9 That's 30.7 WAR just from your bats with no bench players. Add 2 WAR for the bench, and this team would have had a higher WAR than every team last year but for the Dodgers and Astros. That's a lot to ask. Add in the arms you did - I'm leaving so can't run those through to get projected WAR with those stats - but you're projecting like a 95 win team above.

If this is Robert's slash line, that's one hell of a rookie season. That .878 OPS would be pretty impressive and assuming he's a + runner and fielder, that makes him a 5-6 WAR player as a rookie. I'd lower your expectations for his bat even though he is certainly talented enough to absolutely dominate.

I think Trubisky reflects poorly on Pace, not Nagy. I truly believe if Trubisky was capable, Nagy would have gotten more out of him. I don't know how to judge Nagy because the driving force of an NFL offense is the QB and he doesn't have a capable one.

Yikes, from a pretty well placed source who has a lot of knowledge: The Bears primary target this off-season will be Alex Smith. Yuck.

Yeah, it's when I got involved with posting here. It was one hell of a roller coaster and taught me to shut off all the noise and wait until that baby is delivered! It was an up and down year; amazing that all the anger and sadness about Machado wasn't warranted as it may have been the best thing to happen to the rebuild. If people want to add threads and etc to read that was good from the year prior that wouldn't be a bad idea either.

Sox have generated more WAR from their drafts dating back 10 years than more than 1/2 the league. I need to back and find the research, and while much of that is tied to Chris Sale (and now Anderson), that doesn't mean it doesn't count because finding Chris Sale is really valuable. The Sox haven't had as many pieces as some teams, but they've generated more WAR than the league average from their drafts. Baseball is tough to evaluate because: 1. It takes a lot of time. 2. It's much more of a crapshoot than other sports, so you shouldn't expect an impact guy every year. 3. As a fan, we are much closer to our failures than we are to other teams failures. Also, the Sox didn't really get elite high level draft picks for decades due to them winning enough to not be the worst - until the last few years.

Cardinals had a log jam of outfielders, and they have really wanted to get their young OF'er more at bats which was why they didn't even discuss an extension with Ozuna. I think they're a hard no for all three. All the Castellanos to Giants momentum has come to a halt and the most recent update I read was that they may be more interested in Puig and a shorter deal at this point realizing that Castellanos doesn't make much sense for their OF and window. ... that leaves the Rangers who just traded an OF'er because they already had too many.

Especially when you're a poor defending power hitting outfielder. That market has tanked and never quite recovered. I cited JD Martinez because it took him months to get over 100 million and no one else was offering it but the Red Sox. Castellanos is younger, and maybe slightly more capable as a defender, but he's no where near the hitter JD was. I wouldn't be shocked to see one of these two sign for like 3 years, 50 million or 1 year, 22-24 million in hopes of cashing in next year. I just don't see anyone throwing 80-90 million at either guy at this point. Besides the Rangers - who I don't understand signing an OF'er but they've been reportedly interested - who is really out there that hasn't already invested in other options?

White Sox have done about as well in the draft as the majority of MLB teams; comparing them to the Dodgers - who have been better than everyone - is an odd way to reference them being bad at drafting.

One of either Castellanos or Ozuna are completely fucked. Who is left out there to sign those guys to long term deals? There just aren't enough interested parties left. I think one of those two guys is going to get either a short deal or a hell of lot less money than most thought.

Ahh, see I missed you - someone whose posts I never miss in the minor league threads! Love your knowledge on those levels and appreciate you filling in the blanks for things I, and many others, may not follow quite as closely!

Well, I'm bored at the office for a few hours today before another week off and I figured since I just finished my first year posting (who cares, I know), I would do something I don't frequently do - show appreciation for posters and people that make this site enjoyable. We spend a lot of time conversing and arguing with each other about a common interest, but we also learn new things and share those insights. If I didn't name you, it's nothing personal as I miss things from time to time in my elongated breaks due to work. Sox Talk 2019 Shout Outs - My favorite Poster: MQR - while I enjoy reading many thoughts and insights on the forum, I have to say that MQR quickly grew into my favorite poster over the past year. I enjoy reading his thoughts and insights - even if we don't agree - and I find him to be very good at describing things in ways that the masses understand; something I am not always great at. I think he walks the fine line between pessimistic and optimistic better than all posters at this site - being reasonable and rational for most of his thoughts while removing his emotion. My favorite read: Chicago White Sox - He's a passionate SOB and he fluctuates between incredibly optimistic and emotionally pessimistic - that's the nature of being a Sox fan. That said, he tells people what he thinks and sometimes takes some pot shots but all in good fun. He dishes out quite a lot of shit but he's also more than capable of taking shit back without whining or complaining. I love his emotional reaction and take to White Sox baseball - he is my definition of a Sox fan. The guy moved to Nashville to take a stand! That can't be beaten by any other poster. My favorite stat head: thxfrthmmrs - being a fellow analytic thinker, I enjoy reading his thoughts. We have clashed on countless topics over the past year - data can come to two different conclusions depending on the analyst! - especially basketball, but I really enjoy the thought he puts into his words and the evidence he uses to support his opinions. Even if I don't agree with him always, I am almost guaranteed to always learn something new. My favorite sparring partner: Dick! - Dick doesn't love when I call him Dick, but I love how honest Dick keeps me. He calls me on my opinions when they become wishywashy and nonsensical. He brings my mistakes to the surface, and he always questions my methods. Dick is one of those people that keeps the place going by keeping everyone on their toes. Glad to have him in the stable of "keeping them honest" posters. My favorite Contrarian: Moan - Moan takes a lot of heat for his negativity, but you need those type of posters to make sure we don't get to irrationally excited. What I really really like about Moan is that he disagrees with A LOT of posters, but he never attacks them or ridicules them. He spends all that energy on attacking the front office. I respect a poster who can disagree with you without making it personal, and Moan disagrees a lot so he's a pro. In general, I like his insights even if I don't always agree with them. My favorite thinker: ChiSox59 - This is a guy you know thinks before he posts; frequently providing valuable and additional information to conversations that many might overlook. If you're uncertain of something, ChiSox59 or BMags are the guys to ask. They do a lot of great homework. My favorite underdog: Jack Parkman - Jack takes a lot of shit around here, and I'm honestly not a huge fan of some of the personal jabs at the guy but people seem to know him better than I. Jack has a good heart, and wants what is best for the team. I wish we could all collectively lift his spirits more when he gets down on himself or on the White Sox. I'm certain Jack is the kind of guy who would help a stranger in need at Soxtalk, and I appreciate that he realizes his shortcomings and tries to improve on them. My favorite researcher: fathom/Orlando - I remember when I came to this forum the perception was that fathom was negative. I can honestly say I would not draw that conclusion. Fathom is great for his knowledge of every baseball rumor that has ever existed for every single team. If you want to know where someone might go, ask Fathom as he's read every twitter/reddit and forum on the net to gauge rumors and fan expectations. In regards to Orlando, I'm like 99% sure that he actually knows exactly what people are about to tweet before they actually do it. There are so many other posters I enjoy reading and conversing with and it's one of the reasons it's the only place online that I post. BackDoor, Eloy, Lillian, Y2Jimmy for his awesome coverage, PTATC for his medical knowledge, Cali for his constant follow ups and question, and poppy for his unwavering positivity and on and on. I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and wish you all a happy new year. Here's to a better, happier and more exciting 2020. Go Sox!

Maybe Heyman is quoting the price with the posting fee included?

Regardless of how good you are, you're just not breaking the bank in Arb 1. They free up about 14 million with Herrera and McCann leaving. They free up 12 million from Encarnacion. 5 million from Gonzalez. 4 million from Leury. 10 million from Colome. That's 45/million off the books next year. Obviously those guys need to be replaced, but if the starters make progress and Vaughn is ready you may not need to replace Encarnacion or Gonzalez. Heck, maybe you get 1 bullpen piece from the crop that emerges as your closer/back end guy which limits what you need to replace Colome. That would drop their payroll before Arb changes to 80ish million entering next off-season. Assume arb on Gio, Lopez and Moncada at 12 million and you're at 92 million only. Plenty of room to make additional splashes while leaving money to pay your guys. Edit: Gio, Lopez and Moncada could get closer to 20 million than 12. So 100 million ish.

You just have to look at the payroll year to year. Sox open up a lot more money next off season. None of their commitments push up against re-upping the young guys. Grandal is the longest one and should be off the books in time to not effect any extension for the young guys. Sox realistically should have almost as much money next off season as they had this off season - the only commitment youd have to account for as impacting the young guys would be a long big time contract. They have zero of those as of now. They can probably afford one star while still being able to reup yoan and gio. I dont need this team playing poor like the cubs and other teams. We know you got that money Jerry and it's time to put it in play 100%. Let's go.