Look at Ray Ray Run

I'd go to a 4th year option that kicks in at some minimal 18 starts in the 3rd year.

Avi supposedly had 3 year offers out there but wanted to bet on himself after the new CBA.

You didnt cite 5.1. You cited 3.3. Why is it foolish to expect a player to improve though? A guy like giolito would be a prime example of a player who you could argue should grow. He had no mechanics last year and it was his first year of success. I'm not dismissing anything; I'm saying I dont use Steamer as my primary projection system for young players as I find it to be better at projecting established players than young/unproven player.

Player Projection models, by nature, error on the side of conservative. While you attempt to change the narrative, I am explaining to you that using STEAMER as the main projection model for Giolito is just disingenuous given the nature of what Steamer uses to make its projections. You can't cite Steamer consistently as you've done, and then just disregard that it projects Giolito to have a FIP a full run higher than this past year because it is weighting a Giolito from two years ago that is simply not the same guy.

Are you insinuating that it would/will be difficult for the White Sox to fine a replacement for Ivan Nova?

Sure, ZIPS projects Giolito to have a 4.2 WAR next year - if you think a reasonable O/U for Giolitos FIP is 4.33 I'll take the under (given that his ERA O/U will fall somewhere between 3.35-3.5) because there's no way the O/U on his FIP is anywhere near the 4.33 STEAMER is projecting. That's some regression. Also, I have no idea why you "expect" regression from anyone that is young and in his second year of a significant mechanical change. You shouldn't "expect" regression anymore than you should "expect" growth from a young player. You very clearly don't understand it since you're using a projection system that is weighing Giolito's 3 year history as some be-all-end-all when the two years prior to last year are very clearly career outliers for Giolito who ran into some issues.

Fair projections: Giolito 4.5 (this is light) Lopez 2.3 Cease (165ip) 2 Kopech 1.2 (100 IP) Nova replacement 2.0 Random 80IP starter replace .8 =12.8 That is a very reasonable projection and expectation and the numbers that I have for the Sox rotation as fo now - plugging in a league average starter for Nova.

Please stop citing a number you don't even understand as authoritative reasoning behind your point.

Correct; my bad.

Again, you're using STEAMER to project a young player with one year of success under his belt. Steamer greatly weights the past three years of results, and if you can't notice the change that Giolito made that made him a different pitcher, and you want to cite STEAMER and defer to something as an authority at least understand it. If you think every single White Sox starter is going to get worse - despite being young and developing - then sure, you go ahead and use your number. I always find it funny when people say people can't expected improvement from everyone all while citing regression from everyone.

No one should be using a STEAMER projection for Lucas Giolito. If you want to factor in his regression as being a concern, then use ZIPs number. If you think Steamer has a case for gio's regression, I'll take Gio under his 4.35 projected FIP for the max you're willing to take.

I have no idea how you figure this; I guess if you're assessing 3 starters and a BP vs 7 starters and a Bpen you get that outcome. The Sox are in a better position than they were entering last year for the sole reason that they added Cease and he replaced some complete garbage that was out there instead of him.

The White Sox were actually 9th in the AL in fWAR last year for pitching at 12.3. They needed to find about 6 WAR over last year to push this team into the top 6ish of the AL in pitching WAR.

Yeah, my issue is that they cant wait on everyone. Grandal wasnt enough. Even if Jimmy Lambert is the next Corey kluber!

Beat writers seem to be pushing back against the narrative that the White Sox are involved in either; from Fegan's last two pieces, he has implied that the Sox don't see value in these post 30 starters without power stuff and find them to be too risky, and a "forced signing" and not one they would make normally.

I'm with Fegan; encarnacion doesnt make a lot of sense. They have in house pieces for that spot. I'm not sure the Sox are interested in Keuchel or Ryu. Language seems to be shifting towards the White Sox passing. Things don't sound good; hope I'm wrong.

Steamer, in general, is slow to react to younger players who have developed/improved. Its actually why I was a bit surprised by Gios number.

His answer to why was equally as baffling as the action.

Fan is a dickhead. Dont like Boylan and he shouldnt be the coach but theres no need for this.

Gotcha. My bad. Definitely agree. I'll worry about the white sox losing a superstar while being good when it actually happens. Call me crazy but one thing I actually trust this organization to do is take care of the good/great ones.

It doesn't make you a bad person if you want to maximize your earnings to assist in the future stability of generations of your family.

Get a grip on yourself. Jesus Christ.

I don't think so. I think Cease is going to be good, but I don't think him being great dictates the success of the rebuild. If the Sox sign another starter or trade for one (that fits the #1-#2 bill), they'll have 3 guys ahead of Cease that they trust more (Kopech, Gio and FA/Trade target). Lopez and Cease shift back to the bottom of the rotation. They're still important, and if either becomes a complete monster they have a hell of a rotation.

Trades have risk; the fact that they came out of three mega-deals with as many quality players as they did has a lot of luck involved. The more you do that, the more likely you are going to get some lemons. They traded Sale because they were rebuilding. Now their pieces are coming together and you want to start over. It's a dumb idea; if I can put it lightly.

Based on what? It's no where near -3. Detwiler - 70 IP; -.6 Manny - 50 IP; -.4 Ervin - 13 IP; -.4 (This is IMPRESSIVE in 13 innings) Despaigne 13 IP; -.1 Fulmer/Hecton 22 IP; -.15 That's -1.65 5th starter spot is only getting about 165 innings in a year. That's 168 above.