Look at Ray Ray Run

What does hitting the ball in the right spots mean? Do you believe that's something a hitter controls? Shifting has decreased, not increased, the past couple years. It plateued. He hits the ball the other way now more than ever.

8 years for a 30 year old pitcher lol

Edit: sure, save further cluttering the thread. You wouldn't cite the percentage rate change when citing a change in outcomes. He strikes out in 1% more at bats. That is what matters.

His k rate is 1% higher this year than it was his rookie year. Not 10%.

It has nothing to do with the future, but while everyone is critical of Jose Abreu, let me remind people what an absolute steal he was for 72 million dollars over the duration of his sox career so far. If you told me 6 years ago he was gonna have 180 homers, 600 rbis and a 131 wRC+ over the next six years I'd have been more than ecstatic.

The point of WAR is to be able to compare a catcher to a 2nd baseman on an even scale encompassing all value. I am not sure why you think WAR is best used to compare vs ones positional peers.

Jack, sometimes you say things that I just can't comprehend. Saying he'll have a lot of seasons between 33-39 but never 40 makes zero sense.

And people were critical of him not running every ball out lol.

The problem with statistics is people only value the ones that support their position. I'll watch people consistently move the goal posts on things they believe in by changing the stats they view as valuable. I see this at work all the time. Someone preaches to me over and over that theyve found an area of opportunity or a deficiency. They'll present me their supporting metrics, and I'll review it. I'll rebutt with counter supported data, and they'll tell me the correlation isn't as strong or that the MOE on that output is poor. Then one week later, they'll present me another position and they'll support it with the same analytics I used to rebutt their previous proposal; now stating that output is more reliable. These are professionals of the field too so I expect nothing less from people outside the analytics world.

Range is built into both DRS and Total Zone.

Huh? WAR attempts to put an all encompassing value on every player by taking into account their value based on position and etc. In no way does WAR argue that 50 wins at DH is more valuable than 50 wins in CF; the point of positional compensation and penalty is to judge every player on an even scale based on the different value they provide. By WAR, Cameron was a more valuable player in his career than David Ortiz. Defense is really important and WAR is the best publically available number to evaluate all players on the same scale. That said, WAR has weaknesses just like any other all encompassing metric, and it's regarding their value weights. I personally believe, based on all the data that tells us that defensive metrics are far too volatile to be really reliable on an individual year basis, that WAR weights defense too heavily. The support of the above opinion is there based on the fact that MLB teams do not pay for defensive value like they do offensive value. For example, heyward was paid for about 50% of his defensive value, not 100%. I appreciate the stat and the normalization of it that allows everyone to be judged on the same scale but there are shortcomings and the penalty for DH's and block head first baseman, as well as its overvaluing of an inefficient defensive metrics are two of the issues I have with WAR.

Lol Carlos Sanatana, Hoskins, and Max Muncy would like to have a word with you.

I also think first baseman and DH's get a raw deal relating to WAR - they are penalized far too much and it's an inefficiency with the statistic, no doubt. Similarly to how Colorado bats are punished far too much since they do not receive a bump for their road production when all stats have shown that Colorado players are at a disadvantage, more than other teams, when they're on the road. I'll use David Ortiz vs Mike Cameron as an example. They have the same career WARs, nearly, and Ortiz had nearly 3000 more PA's than Cameron so Cameron's WAR/162 rate was way better than Ortiz. You won't find a human being alive that would have rather had Mike Cameron for his career than David Ortiz. Not one.

Based on their batted ball profiles, theres not significant regression expected for Tim or Yoan. Some? Sure, but not significant . Tim's career BABIP before this year (a year in which he's hit for more authority, sprayed the ball well and has a significantly higher LD% than his career - 23.2% compared to 20.1% entering this year) was 340. He can likely sustain 350-360 BABIPs with his current batted ball profile. Yoan has a career BABIP of 356, so sustaining something like 370 isn't that far from his expected outcomes and he's sitting at 382 so there isn't significant fall off expected barring bad luck. McCann will return to near league average around 310 - his hard contact rate is up over years past but not anywhere near enough to warrant his escalated BABIP.

Hopefully when he gets more support he'll be more willing to take a walk. His walk rates have taken a step backwards and maybe that can be attributed to his lack of support around him. Ftr, while I am obviously pro-analytics over traditional... that said, sabermatricians really do underrate and value such things as cultural assimilation for foreign players. There is value to being a leader to latin/Cuban teammates entering a new environment and culture. I can't quantify it which typically means you shouldnt account for it, but it exists and there is value there and he certainly provides a lot of it regardless of what one believes. The instillation of proper work ethic, professionalism and expectations are important in young players.

Yes, hit tools are just bat to ball skills. See Tim Anderson as someone who had/has bad mechanics frequently and his lower body still gets out of sync with his hands and upper body but his hands are so good and his bat to ball skills are so good that he can crush a ball/square it up while being off balance and out of place. That said, if you change your swing plane you can develop a hole in your swing that may not have existed before but at the high school level you should still be able to find the baseball and put it in play. I'd pass on any kids with questionable contact skills at the high school level until they can disprove that notion at the college level.

We'll agree to disagree. You owe that person nothing and have no contractual obligation to them. Advisors pop up everywhere when you're a prospect. If the kid has a good support system, his advisors are his family and coaches and etc. This isn't AAU basketball with pariahs everywhere taking advantage of kids. It is just not how baseball has worked. Maybe things have dramatically changed since 2005 and I'm out of the loop - I don't believe that to be the case though. Edit: in Latin countries, this is a massive problem. Kids sign on young, and illegally, to agents who circumvent the rules to acquire the services of their client before they are technically eligible. In the states, they monitor this pretty closely and you can lose your license for doing the exact thing people are claiming happens with frequency in this thread. Big agents, who most top prospects end up signing on with, do not advise in any formal matter before a contract is signed. They arent risking their licenses for unknown high school juniors.

So they don't have an agent, as I said. Misinformation flys online. You cannot have an agent before you are drafted, period. People approach you and give you advice from all avenues - some may do so in hope of earning your trust for future relationships but they are not your agent by any means.

Yes, the rule changed stating they can now use an agent to negotiate for them - they cannot have an agent before their senior year of high school starts. Implying otherwise is incorrect.

He has an agent? Before his high school career is over? Nah.

He's averaging 11.5 k/s per 9 and has a FIP and ERA of 3.2 in 2019 MLB baseball. After today Giolito should/will be top 5 (6) in pitcher WAR. I'm not sure what is needed to be an ace if that's not one. This isn't even peak giolito either. He's in his first season of MLB success. Edit: and he will have done it in less innings than everyone above him not named Scherzer. Parkman, you should be gloating but now you're ridiculing the guy when he's top 5 in WAR. Weird.

What defensive value did he need to add to his profile that was 1st ballot hof'er. That's as valuable as a player can get really.

What does frank thomas defense have to do with him leaving? He was a first ballot HOF'er. Are you implying he would have left if he was left handed and wore a helmet in the field?

Anderson has an 850 ops as a SS who steals 30 bags a season. If he wasnt playing so poorly with the glove hed be on a 5 WAR pace for the season.

Top 5 payrolls pretty consistently when they were good and competing.