Look at Ray Ray Run

Nah.

None of those players pushed the Astros anywhere near the luxury tax. The cubs didnt go over the tax for those players. I'm not sure you understand my point.

Best hand and wrists I've ever seen. I say it all the time, but my goodness is it a pleasure to watch.

From a production standpoint, it would be impossible to be critical of abreu if the guy goes 35/120. RBI's dont matter for projection so they have little value on the future, but you can't take away what he accomplished this year regarding run production.

Ok. You cite a 20 million number that is tied to making the playoffs. Diamond Dollars explains the dynamic and value of winning: the conclusion was basically that getting to the postseason is where the value comes from - the world series is simply a bonus but no team that has a playoff roster should be spending heavily or going over the luxury to acquire one more piece. It's exactly why teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are so dedicated to not staying over the luxury tax threshold. The cost of that extra 1% isnt worth the price.

If the Sox make the playoffs 2 years in a row the impact on season tickets would be as substantial as winning a world series and missing the playoffs. The sox sold playoff tickets tied to season ticket packages. The world series was just an element of that. That 20 million escalation was for making the playoffs not winning the World series.

There is very little difference between (monetarily) winning the world series and making the playoffs. One player doesn't impact the game enough to warrant paying 50% luxury tax to acquire a player to increase your odds of winning it all by 5%. That is why the Yankees and Dodgers arent willfully throwing endless amounts of cash at players near the cap.

I don't have the hatred for don cooper that many here have. Coaches are only as good as their players. There are still examples of players progressing just as their are examples of players not progressing. The only reason I do not like Cooper is because I have heard from people within that he doesn't work hard anymore, which, if true, is unacceptable. I don't blindly trust peoples word but if that is the perception one player had from within, I worry that player was not alone in that thought. I don't think Coopers principles or beliefs are that archaic. Baseball philosophy goes in waves. 30 years ago the high pitch was in and successful, as players came up they focused on hitting that pitch and evolved. Then the low sinker was in 20-10 years ago, as players had adjusted to get the high fastball. When Mike trout came into the league he was one of a very few bats who destroyed the low pitch. Then swing paths changed and the low fastball was getting killed and the high fastball is back in. It's not revolutionary by any means, it's just another cycle. I, by no means, believe cooper is saying fuck the data and keep the ball down. I also don't disagree with teaching pitchers not to max effort every game and inning - changing speeds on your fastball is valuable and not throwing your best fastballs every at bat could elongate ones career.

Because a part of Hahns background is in analytics and he has very clearly pushed to integrate analytics more and more throughout the organization. As I said, the hiring of Renteria had nothing to do with maximizing wins - that wasn't the goal. The goal was for him to help build up the young players and keep the team together. I think the players like him and the clubhouse chemistry has improved. Renteria was hired after a period in the organization in which a lot of clubhouse turmoil and fighting was happening. I like to think that was Ricky's job to stop and prevent. When the gear changes to winning itll be very telling what decision and direction the team goes in. I still think most fans greatly overvalue the impact of a manager.

Can you blame them? They literally make their living off access and teams/players league wide have frozen out writers for very little criticism in the past.

I'm not giving them too much credit, I'm just saying knowing Hahn's background he has to think that commentary was absurd. He may not have said it out loud but it's impossible for him to think any other way; unless Jerry is a brainwashing gypsy.

The Sox arent going to throw ricky under the bus. I do think Hahn had enough with the Anderson 7th garbage and did interject which might have heightened Renterias response to this. Ricky's logic is circular. He says how can you use data if you dont give a player a chance to create new data. That's so uneducated and archaic idk what to say. If the player shows improvement and changes his data expected outcomes, then you make the change. You dont make decisions with a player who had never statistically supported the decision under the basis that he might support it one day. That's outlandish. Renteria is an over bunting block head.

Managers mean so little I don't really care, but Hahn is far too intelligent of a human being to actually allow this block head to run the team when it matters. Ricky was good with young players and keeping people together - that has value to a young team who is losing A LOT. I understand the value of that when winning isn't the priority but if they don't shift gears when goal is to win, I'll be baffled. You can't have the background Hahn has and think that commentary isn't ludicrous.

One idiot said that about Drake and he was beaten up in the clubhouse by his own teammate over it.

Theres no way a business man is anti analytics.

If you're comparing this to your business, it doesn't work. By your business sense, the White Sox are likely outstanding. Regardless of what they say, they worry about the bottom line. They're not trying to win the game of value if the value costs more than their break even point. Teams that go into the luxury tax very clearly aren't worried about maximizing profits and the bottom line when constructing their team. They take it into consideration, but there's a value to winning to them. No one can say one player pushing you over the luxury tax warrants the penalty because he gives you a better chance to win the World Series. Winning a World Series really isn't all that much more profitable than losing a 1st round wildcard game.

Old people hate change. Especially old people who got where they were without the change and pre-change.

Here is someone explaining better than I. https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/

This is the first Sox forum I have posted on - I guess reddit as well a few times. Censorship destroys forums. I'm a big believer in, if it's not personal information or racist/bigoted/threatening, then it's fine. Over censoring pushes people away.

Do tell Dotel. Luis Castillo also involved. You never know, but my money is on them laundering for him.

Yes. This.

As I said youre using a horribly efficient number to asses Coles contract number. A number, that if anywhere near accurate or believed by teams would be leading to much larger contracts for free agents than is currently taking place. 6 WAR players aren't betting 60/million a year salaries (even on short terms). As you scale the system up, the cost per WAR gets lower. As you scale the system down, the per WAR cost gets lower. A 3 WAR player doesn't earn 30 million on the FA market.

No big free agent is signing for a discounted rate. Manny and Bryce didn't sign for a discount. People need to do way with that thought process. Machado wouldn't have gotten 330 million if the Yankees and dodgers were involved. The Yankees and Dodgers are two of the most analytically driven organizations in baseball. They're not overpaying someone just to acquire them. If it goes over their value of the player they'll simply move on.

According to what? The WAR/dollar number used by fangraphs is high. Even if you to buy that number and say it is 9.5 million per WAR, you get 230ish million not 270. That number does not scale evenly below 2 WAR and above 5 WAR. If it did, trout would be signing for 80 million per year.

People just haven't accepted the reality about these Yankees. They don't overspend just to acquire guys. I find it hard to believe that Cole is expected to generate much more than 25 WAR over the 7 years, and most teams aren't going to pay much more than 220,000,000 for 25 WAR. 25 WAR is a really reasonable forecast for Cole. People thought 300 million was the starting rate for Manny and Harper and it wasn't. Pitchers contracts have not seen the same level of inflation as position players because pitchers have an extra level of risk tied to them. I'd say Cole gets 7/220. If it's much more than that I'd be shocked and I wouldn't be interested. We'll never see another A-Rod like contract in baseball. I'm not claiming collusion but ownership very obviously wants to limit these big contract spikes beyond standard.