Look at Ray Ray Run

Because of his 100 career big league at bats?

8 singles and a homer. Some nights things just fall in. Love the no walks.

Lambert with the nice win.

Castillo is a below average defensive catcher for his career - I wouldnt say hes bad but hes certainly not good. Citing a framing stat for a catcher that pitchers dont want to throw too isnt too valuable. So he calls a shit game but catches the shit pitches nicely? Based on the fact that no one likes throwing to him (this based on 5 years of these rumblings in Boston) I'd guess hes either: 1. Not doing his homework and his hitter knowledge paired with the knowledge of his pitchers strength dont mesh and they arent accurate. 2. He doesnt understand the information he's been given so he can not properly apply it. Regardless it's been a critique of Swihart for 5 years and hes shown no improvement.

I think we've discussed this previously but the WAR per dollar value that is publically available is horribly sourced - using simplistic analysis based solely on FA's WAR to dollar signed. I'd guarantee most organizations have it scaled, and broken out into trade, fa and arbitration values giving each player and avenue a different SV based on that. I'm not at my computer now, but what did Frazier produce WAR wise with the Yankees? More importantly, what was his expected WAR output prior to the deal?

I'd have no problem with Robert skipping AAA if he dominates AA.

Using a singular defensive metric to evaluate a catcher in a single year has a confidence rating of about .1. Castillo isnt a very good defensive catcher but he has a career of receiving and hitting - something swihart doesnt. Swihart has had multiple pitchers in his career ask to not throw to him. Maybe Castillo has that but I've never heard I'd it.

He wont make it to AAA because catcher is the shallowest position in baseball - pair that with former top prospect status and someone will always take a look. Swihart is the worst receiver in baseball. I just see no value in giving him to a young pitching staff.

What are you using as the value of 1 WAR for SV? All WAR should not be treated equally in regards to value. 1 WAR does not equal 9.5 million but that becomes closer to the value of a win the higher up the WAR scale you go.

Closer experience is irrelevant. Do you think anyone cared that Andrew Miller wasn't a closer? Or do you think anyone downgraded Hader because he wasn't a closer for Milwaukee? Production in high leverage situations matters, sure, but production in the 9th inning means next to nothing. Playoff experience has absolutely no statistical evidence supporting the claim that more of it = better outcomes. Playoff experience is not something smart eams pay for. Yes, Frazier had no value. His expected WAR the rest of the year versus his salary was negative. I didn't lose an argument, because I'm not partaking in one. Frazier was a salary dump. A below average player has no value to a team when he's being paid as an average regular. The Yankees could have gone elsewhere to find a replacement that would have equaled his production, but cost less. They chose to add him in the deal so they would give up less.

Yes, they pay a "premium" so they adjust what the value of a win today is to them - based on their place in the standings and the value of winning this year. They are still using surplus value to determine the trades value. They aren't just throwing in a prospect without knowing his value vs what they expect to get in return. They simply adjust their win values based on present and future.

You're just adjusting your surplus value to correspond with your wants. That doesn't mean surplus value no longer exists in the trade calculation. As for the first part, if both those guys produced that 1.5 WAR over a large enough sample (let's say 5 seasons), they are worth the exact same and thinking the playoff experience has value is archaic.

The control doesn't matter - I don't think the Sox want another catcher with organizational control on their 40 man roster. Seby and Collins are too close. Cheaper is a valid comment, sure, but Swihart isn't a MLB catcher. Plays more positions? I have no interest in signing Swihart to watch him hit 220 playing a bad defensive left field. McCann is a better catcher than Swihart. I'd rather have McCann personally.

This is the best part about everything in regards to Moncada... the adjustments that pitchers will make are ones he can easily handle because he has an elite batting eye. So now a pitcher may say he's being more aggressive early, let's not attack him so much early... and Yoan will take those pitches, get ahead in the count, and increase his production that way. His eye is still a strength and still exists, he's just using it differently now.

Those rumblings have existed in Boston now across multiple rotation changes as well - which is even more damning. That was the knock on Swihart 3 years ago, and it's still the knock today. McCann and Wellington have both had better offensive seasons than Swihart too and McCann is only 1 year older. Funny that people hate McCann but want Swihart. He hasn't been a big prospect for 5 years.

Can you link me to the differences? I see his swing being the same as it was to start the year with Oregon State last, but different than it was at the end of his college season but that is mainly due to regaining strength in his wrist likely led to a less strong bat path at the end of last year and the start of his pro career.

They are based on surplus value regardless; the calculation is simply adjusted to give more credence to their present day value than the FV of a prospect. For example, say they view Robertson as being worth 1 win to the the rest of the way, and they value a win at $9.5 million (no team does, but we'll just use the FA number), and he was owed $5 million the remainder of the season. His present day surplus value to them, is 4.5 million. But if we are saying that the B-Level prospect is worth 8 million, then wouldn't that be a net loss of 3.5 Million? Sure, but the Yankees may depreciate that 8 million FV by 50%, because the wins that B-Level prospect could provide them with is coming from a position of organizational strength, and a win 7 years from now may be worth 13 million, so that 8 million is equal to less than 1 win 6 years from now, bringing the present day value of the 40FV prospect at 4 million so the Yankees calculated their net return to be .5 million. FV is more valuable to bad teams and present value more valuable to good teams. This is how you see some overpayments at trade deadline.

Trades are valued by surplus value - every team has their own calculation I'm sure - and by no account was Robertson worth much more than his salary. People seem to really be overvaluing Kahnle - he had one year in his entire career with a FIP under 4.00 when he was traded to the Yankees. Robertson and his limited value + Kahnle and his limited success = one top 100 prospect. Expecting more just doesn't make sense. Take into account the fact that Frazier had no value - possibly negative value - and you get Rutherford. And no offense, but I don't care what Sox fans on a message board think their players are worth. A B-Level prospect - what are you valuing that as? 40FV? That's worth about 8 million; Robertson didn't have 8 million in Surplus Value. In fact, no where near it. It was a fair trade because Kahnle clearly had a ceiling - he was in the middle of a career year and his FIP was under 2 - and Robertson is a good MLB reliever but Robertson was paid accordingly.

Yeah, I don't have an exact answer to this. I think there best bet is Basabe goes to AAA following his activation - he didn't dominate AA, but he showed progress towards the end of the season and tools wise he's probably ready. I would guess they were hoping Gonzalez can get it going - he would be their best bet - and they can move him up quickly as he has the age, and production at the lower levels to warrant it. He needs to start showing progress though. If he has a nice next 6 weeks I could see him getting promoted. Otherwise they DH one of the OF'ers everyday.

They've lost a lot of talent - writer wise - in the past year and it shows. It'll take the new people time to learn and progress as writers/researchers. That said, I have been incredibly excited about Rodon since I saw his pitches thrown breakdown percentages. He should have gone slider heavy 2 years ago. He has three different sliders, and he should just be fastball/slider.

Looks to me like Boston pitchers wanted Swihart gone. Not exactly a vote of confidence for the guy coming to the Sox. Swihart can't catch and he can't hit. Pass.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hot-starts-to-believe-in/

No one is hitting .351 at any minor league level by finding small holes in an A-Ball infield. He has a .844 OPS, and 3 XBH's in 13 hits and is slugging .459 after a dreadful start. Madrigal has been very good, and trying to say the guy is slapping the ball around the infield and that's the only way he gets hits is a bit of a stretch.

They aren't going to demote anyone following 2 weeks of play. I guess if Rutherford struggled into June, it's a small possibility, but in reality you don't really want to send anyone down. If he can't figure out his struggles at AA he's probably doomed. He will get an entire year at the level and if he shows no progress he'll repeat the level but it seems really unlikely they'll send him down a level.

Wouldn't be shocked at all to see Basabe go straight to AAA following activation. Booker needs to go up. Even still, you have a logjam if you bring up Robert. Gonzalez figuring it out and forcing a promotion by the end of May would be ideal.