Look at Ray Ray Run

He won a title with the Marlins in 97.

Yes, Dave Dombrowski built the team. Sigh.....

Dombrowski has won twice and he's a dunce. He's got 4 appearances!

Fair enough; my entire point is that the a lot of Theo's success in Boston was achieved by exploiting the draft in a way that he cannot do anymore. His edge was removed. Since then, he has not been nearly as dominant in drafts as he was back then. In fact, with the Cubs the only + player he drafted so far is Bryant. Almora was drafted a year before Tim Anderson, with the 6th overall pick, and he's had back to back 1.1 WAR years. Schwarber, as I said, is the most overrated baseball player on the planet; although I think that is beginning to wear off. Obviously to exploit the draft you need to be good enough to evaluate talent in the first place.

By the way, thanks for putting this together bmags. I love stuff like this.

GM's should be evaluated based on results and resources available. Brian Cashman shouldnt be judged the same as someone like Shapiro. If you give me 1 million dollars to invest I'm likely to make more money investing than if you give me $500,000. Resources available matter a lot. Edit: theo is certainly better than average. I'd put him in the top 8 or so. That said you cant poing to Boston years today. The main edge he had in Boston has been removed under the current cba.

As I said, Theo has not been nearly as good in the draft. Kris Bryant fell into his lap... after Bryant, what Cub has he drafted that is good?

That would have been the series price - as I said, I'll add 80 cents because of the aura of the post-season - but that was the series priced based on all the statistical outcomes last year. No one is more than -500 vs another MLB team in a 7 game series. The less scoring in your game and the more players, the more susceptible it is to extreme variance impacting individual outcomes. Teams that aren't very good can still win World Series. Hell, the Royals team that got their the first year flat out wasn't very good.

Yes, I'm indirectly defending Hahn by calling all his moves abysmal. My goodness.

This just isn't true. Last year the Boston Red Sox in a 7 game series vs the Chicago White Sox would have been -420 or so. That means that 2 out of 10 years, if the White Sox were in the World Series last year, they would have won the World Series. If you want to say -500, which would be really high, fine... so 1 out of 10 times. The Giants just won a World Series 5 years ago as the 8th or 9th best team in the game. You do not need to trade elite, controllable talent for a rental reliever to win. You can't asses a trade with as much FV as that one by focusing on a singular outcome. You trade players, not outcomes. As for your last point; Boston won 113 games or whatever... they didn't need Eovaldi to win a World Series. He was AWESOME, but the assumption you continue to make is that if he didn't pitch, the guy who would have would've blown the game and the series. The Red Sox won a ton of games because they are a collection of parts that all contributed. They had a lot of players who could contribute and step up.

Yes, I have complimented Theo's drafting abilities of the past, and explained how Theo was able to acquire such high level talent later in the draft. Theo saw a loophole in how the draft system was set up, exploited it, and completely dominated the offensive landscape of baseball for nearly a decade because of it.

What? I said he's not a god among men in the GAME, not in the city. I have no idea how you can quote both posts, then highlight my last sentence, and still misrepresent what I said. I pointed out that even one of baseball's BEST GM's struggles mightily in free agency.

Maybe I'll put together something next week as you have me interested. I would guess that higher tier free agents have a less likely BUST rate than bottom to mid-tier free agents. I believe that is backed up by the fact that MLB GM's have moved away from mid-level and low-level free agents like the plague over the past decade. The fact that Epstein got to play in the talented pool and still struck out this often isn't a good thing.

I believe that not having Chapman could have led to many other decisions that could have resulted in a 4 game sweep in the World Series just as likely as a Game 7 loser. Once again, the Cubs did not win the World Series because of Aroldis Chapman. If people think the Chapman trade was a good trade, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Value in and value out is all that matters in trades; even with present day WAR being more valuable to a winning team than future WAR, that trade doesn't come close to being even.

Who is trying to make Hahn seem not as horrid? Reading comprehension seems to be a big issue here with some posters. In no way have I defended Hahn or any decision he has made in this thread. He has made abysmal free agent signings, but his signings weren't bad enough to strap the organization for a decade - partly because he hasn't been given that much money to blow, but based on his track record so far he'd probably blow it if they gave him it. If Theo made those signings with an organization like the White Sox they would be ded.

Well, I didn't include Heyward, Edwin Jackson, or Yu Darvish since we don't have enough data on two of them... but when you include those three, it's certainly much worse than 4mill/per WAR less.

All we can judge a man on is the information we have on the decisions he has made. We can not judge a man based on decisions he may have made under circumstances he has never experienced. He has never shown a different strategy in his tenure as GM - whether with the Cubs or the Red Sox. He has spent frivolously and recklessly. Theo has signed 4 of the worst contracts in MLB history - Crawford, Darvish, Edwin Jackson and Heyward (this one can still right itself slightly if Heyward can have 1-2 big years.

Hahn's moves have been atrocious. Where do I say Hahn's worst moves are OK? You guys can move the goal posts all you want, but the facts are the facts. You want to ridicule Hahn for being some horrendous FA signee - fine. I don't disagree, but to then praise Epstein is just hypocritical. It's harder to win when you're swimming in the discount pool in free agency - it's harder to hit big. Theo has been swimming in the high stakes pool, and he swing and misses more than anyone in baseball. Respect Theo for what he's good at - as I have said - but downplaying bad moves he's made and hiding behind some hindsight victory bias is not how anyone evaluates a decision in baseball circles. If Gleybar Torres stays healthy and continues to grow - as he has - he will be around a 20+ WAR player over the duration of his rookie contract and he will have been traded for 1 WAR for 1/2 a season. They didn't win a World Series BECAUSE of Aroldis Chapman, they won one WITH him.

Winning a World Series contains a lot of luck. Chapman nearly BLEW the World Series. To pretend that the Cubs couldn't have made any other move in which they didn't need to give up a potential superstar with 7 years of team control for a rental closer is just incorrect imo. Chapman didn't win the Cubs the World Series, but the Cubs could certainly use Gleybar Torres right now and for the next 6 years. Theo could have made another move that didn't mean giving up a guy who might be a star for a decade to acquire someone for a few months into a volatile role such as closer.

Edgar Renteria (2004, 4 years, $40 million) (1.8 WAR with Sox) Matt Clement (2004, 3 years, $25.8 million) (2.8 WAR) Julio Lugo (2006, 4 years, $36 million) (.1 WAR) Daisuke Matsuzaka (2006, 6 years, $52 million plus $51 million posting fee) (8.2) Brad Penny (2008, 1 year, $5 million) (1 WAR) John Smoltz (2009, 1 year, $5.5 million) (1 WAR) John Lackey (2009, 5 years, $82.5 million) (6.7 WAR) Mike Cameron (2009, 2 years, $15.5 million) (0 WAR) Bobby Jenks (2010, 2 years, $12 million) (0 WAR) Carl Crawford (2010, 7 years, $142 million) (4.6 WAR) That's 467 million in 6 years that contributed next to nothing. 26.2 WAR to be exact. $17.8mil/perWAR. If Theo was the GM of a small or mid-market team, the decisions like above would cripple the organization for a decade. You can afford to make more mistakes when you have more money.

The All-Star first baseman he acquired he had traded away already. This would be like patting the Sox on the bat for trading for Gio Gonzalez. You think Theo's trade of Aroldis Chapman was a good trade? I would greatly disagree. Hendricks was a shrewd move of acquiring someone who wasn't rated highly because of his stuff.. that was a sharp move. As I said, I question the Arrieta credit because I just don't think that was a natural outcome. His smartest trades were the Russell trade (which is ironic, because Russell is kind of blah... all he has done is gotten worse. He hasn't even put up 3 WAR over the past two seasons combined. Samardzija and Hammell were bad though, so still a nice move. The Chapman trade was a complete train wreck, and it looks like the Quintana trade will be one too. How much credit can you give a guy for acquiring 3 stars if he traded 3 young, controllable, stars away as well? As I said, he wins some and he loses some.

Yeah, but Theo is not +++ at trading. He's like the vast majority of GM's... he wins some and he loses some. Arrieta wasn't even his main target - I still, to this day, think Arrieta's success was greatly "enhanced" unnaturally. Plenty of people around baseball feel that way, but to each their own. He used to be remarkable in the draft when his resources were endless because the penalties were nothing. He's still a good offensive talent evaluator, but pitching wise he's abysmal.

No, Mookie was Theo's last draft with Boston. He loved Mookie.

So he does nothing wrong? His FA track record speaks for itself - it's dreadful. So he struggles there... I am merely pointing that out. He has continued to struggle there with the Cubs, and his struggles may have closed the Cubs window despite the youthful and talented offense. His struggles with drafting and developing pitching is also very well documented. He did really well in trading for Arrieta and Hendricks, and he did real poor in trading for Quintana and Chapman. That just shows that you win some and lose some. Also, payroll does matter. He was in Boston with a top 2 payroll and unlimited resources and then he moved to the Cubs and has the same unlimited resources at his fingertips. That's really important. It's why I am much more fond of Andrew Friedman's accomplishments than Theo's. As I said, Theo is a very very smart baseball man, but he's not a god amongst men in the game.

I'll look for it, but there was an old story about the Red Sox pursuit of Carl Crawford. When they were thinking about the Crawford move, they hired PI's to follow the guy around for months! edit: found something on it http://www.espn.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=6148268 This is called OVER THINKING your decision, and putting a ton of added pressure on the player you just gave the megadeal too. He was too smart for his own good.