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Look at Ray Ray Run

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Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run

  1. What? You seem really caught up on my Rowand comment. I'm not sure why... Usually when explaining something - ala sprint speed being overrated as a defender - you want to use an example that your audience would be familiar with. I didn't use Rowand because of Hawk Harrelson or any nonsense; I used Rowand because he's a terrific example for why speed, or lack their of, does not make or break a center fielders defensive prowess. He's not universally adored by advanced metrics crowd? The two publications that were highest on Madrigal were fangraphs and BP.
  2. Once again, there is so much volatility with defensive metrics that using individual season outputs to determine the talent level of a fielder is a not good statistical analysis. Pederson isn't old, and there's no reason for a significant drop in his fielding prowess. Taking a 4 year sample is a much better predictor for future outcomes than taking last years minute data outputs.
  3. They're prospects; outside of Eloy, if any of the other outfield prospects accumulate 10.1 fWAR in 4 seasons I would be ecstatic. You'd rather have a depth problem by bringing in Joc, than a lack of success problem by surpassing on above average MLB players to save a spot for Blake Rutherford who you hope figures it out. If it turns out that you get a log jam of talent - a good problem to have - you then have an avenue of strength and depth you can trade from to improve the parts of your team that didn't work out as well. There's a reason you never EVER draft for positional need in MLB, and that's because prospects aren't guaranteed, and depth is really really important; and organizational depth is what separates the great organizations from the one year and no year wonders.
  4. I'm not here to win the internet; I'm here to present my opinion. I'm not here to rally troops; I used Rowand as an example because he had two of the best defensive CF seasons in the modern metric era, and he wasn't a speed demon and the fans of this board are familiar with him. I could use Jim Edmonds as well, if that would make you feel better. He - although overrated IMO defensively - is still one of the best defensive CF'ers in the modern era, and no one would classify Edmonds as fast. Anyone who watched both of them understood that. Sure, speed helps - in a lot of cases, it helps cover up for other deficiencies and gives you more margin for error; similarly to throwing harder than not.... but to use Sprint Speed on the bases as a determining factor into a guys defensive prowess is just misguided and far too simplistic.
  5. Sure, in his career in CF his total zone rating is -3 and his zone rating per 1200 innnings in the field is -1. He's a league average center fielder by zone rating in his career (which is a much better sample for fielding metrics than any individual season) His UZR rating for his career is -2.1 (so similar) which makes him league average in center again. Over 5 years his DRS is -13 which - once agian - is league average. Every single thing about Pederson says he's a league average center fielder when you look at his entire career. As for your final point; the "best shape of his life" nonsense is exactly that - complete nonsense. This is the time of year where all these guys show up in the best shape of their lives (there will be 20+ articles written about random players stating such) this spring training and those guys will be the same baseball players they were prior to their weight loss... Why? Because Palka isn't a bad defender because he's fat, he's bad because he has a noodle arm, and gets horrendous reads and jumps on baseballs. His path to the ball always looks so unnatural too him; he never looks comfortable. He looks like Hanley Ramirez every time a ball was hit off the monster. As for what is the point of 2 years of Pederson? Because winning baseball games eventually matters and putting out a MLB product to assist/compliment the youthful core is really important. Because people do pay to watch the product, and putting out the absolute worst of the worst for 5 years is simply unacceptable.
  6. At some point, you need to try to win games and improve. Adam Engel doesn't deserve anymore time in a MLB outfield. Playing bad young guys with no future with the team is actually worse than filling the spot with average veterans. At some point, progress needs to be made and steps need to be taken. This needs to be a year of improvement and growth; Engel assists with neither of those things.. Pederson for two years is worth way more to the team than giving Adam Engel 500 more at bats. In this thread, there are people hoping for playing time for Adam Engel and Daniel Palka; they are literally two of the worst players in MLB. Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are also bad baseball players. That would be an old school White Sox path; sign over the hill veterans that were once good, and hope to catch one more good year before their career is officially over. Once again, comparing Jones/Cargo to Pederson doesn't make a lot of sense. Adam Jones had a .5 WAR last year in 600 At Bats. He hasn't surpassed 2 WAR in 3 years. Gonzalez had a "bounce back" year last year with a 1.7 WAR; his bat speed has diminished significantly and he's never hit outside of Coors. He had a negative WAR two years ago. These aren't good adds; they're simply big names from the past that no longer are worth their reputations. The Sox need to bring in young, potentially, long term assets - Pederson may be locked up for two years, but there's no reason to think you couldn't extend him given the current climate of outfielders.
  7. We've all had our not normal obsessions with bad baseball players. I used to love Willie Harris. Willie accumulated 3.6 fWAR over the course of 1000+ games. That's terrible. Willie was fun, and seemed like a great guy; scoring the run in the World Series helped too, but I loved Willie before that. I was a kid who loved to watch him run and play defense, but Willie was bad. I understand how fans become infatuated with a guys personality or his vibe - it makes sense! Pablo Ozuna was another guy I loved. I have to be the only guy alive with a Pablo jersey. But when talking about adding a real above average MLB player, it's just plan silly to even bring up the concept of blocking a bum like Palka. It's not as if Palka is some young, break out, prospect who found something. He's not Josh Donaldson or JD Martinez making dramatic swing changes. He's still the same guy he was in the minors; bad strike zone command, big swing, tons of power, and a really poor hit tool. Nothing changed. There's no reason to be excited for Daniel Palka; if anything, for me, Palka reminds me of an era of White Sox baseball I'd sooner like to forget.
  8. First time poster, long time lurker. Some White Sox fans obsessions with bad baseball players has always baffled me. Comparing Daniel Palka to Joc Pederson is just laughably absurd. Palka is 27 years old and Pederson is 26. Despite Palka posting a +107 wRC last year, he was a .7 WAR player in nearly 500 at bats. He doesn't walk, he strikes out a ton, and he might be the worst defensive player in baseball. He graded out as a -12.1 last year despite playing the easiest position on the baseball diamond and playing a position that is cluttered with horrible fielders. Joc on the other hand, is one year younger and has already accumulated 10.1 fWAR, with two seasons over 3.1 and one at 2.7. He's an above average MLB player. Joc didn't grade out great in the outfield last year, but in his career he's a career average CF'er - which is much harder to be than an average left fielder. ANYONE who thinks Daniel Palka can even sniff Pedersons jock as a defensive player is absolutely kidding themselves. Pederson's wRC+ last year was 126!, and in his one down year he was a league average hitter with an wRC+ of 100. I get it guys, you had fun watching Palka on a very bad baseball team. He supplied you with some moments of joy in a season that had very few, and he seems like a fun good guy... but he SUCKS at baseball. He does not belong on any even mediocre baseball team. Joc, on the other hand, is an impact player on a Good baseball team. Even comparing the two players is absolutely laughable. Daniel Palka does not belong in a MLB uniform. He has some power and can hit the ball really hard, but overall he's a bad baseball player. He can't play the field, he can't throw, he's a poor baserunner and his bat ceiling is a slightly above average hitter? No thanks. Also, as a CF'er for 18 years of my life, people citing sprint speed is absurd. Aaron Rowand wasn't winning any sprint speed contests but he was a hell of an instinctual defender. I'm not comparing Pederson to Roward, but his sprint speed means very little. You're breaking down already unreliable defensive metrics even further - using catch probability on a year to year basis is a horrible way to analyze a player given the micro-nature that is the sample size. Long story short, Daniel Palka is awful at baseball and Joc Pederson is not.
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