Projecting forward is the key but it's very difficult to do. It's not about what the player is now or what he was in the past. It's about what's the player going to be in one year, three years, five years. Mistakes are made when only looking backwards. Makeup is a huge part of projecting forward and that's what makes it so tricky and why the teams that truely drill down on the makeup are the ones who are most successful at developing players.