YourWhatHurts

I would be thrilled with that, but I don't think either is a centerpiece even for Escobar (if we are getting salary relief which is the Sox MO). If we take on all of the salary, I think that deal could work. Burdi might be too strong of a centerpiece for Escobar + salary relief. Maybe not. Mendick is probably a bit too strong too. I think something that might work could be Ruiz + Marshall + Pilkington-level prospect for Escobar + Soria with the DBacks eating the cash difference. Ruiz is out of options but has definitely improved a lot and could develop into a high-leverage guy over there, so 5+ years of that is really pretty good value IMO. And maybe Marshall could be flipped or even dumped later for cash considerations, similar to when we got Clippard. Or he could be a garbage man. I would definitely take Soria as the MR/garbage man replacement for Foster and Marshall both.

As contact pitchers, you have to figure that Lynn and Keuchel are going to have their issues at times (especially Keuchel) with lineups loaded with quality hitters who hit the ball hard a lot. And with Cease, you also have to figure that his control is still going to elude him for the next year or so at least as he continues to settle in as an MLB pitcher. Come playoffs, if we put Rodon out there in Game 1 and he is still the same guy we have seen all year, then we can win Game 1 against any single team in baseball. Game 2, we have a shot at least with Giolito. Game 3, there's again a shot at least with Lynn. Then for Game 4 we could see Cease if he is in a good spot at that time or we could even see Kopech. The biggest issue with this team IMO is just the inconsistency of the bullpen. We will win or lose in large part based on whether Bummer and Heuer turn it around or not.

Yermin has to go down. The hitting skills are all there. It's mental with him. He's already shown what he can do when he is right, and he is not right. He needs to get through this. There is no doubt that if Yermin can get that confidence back, at the very least, he is an absolute weapon in the playoffs off the bench. He's like a nuke in your back pocket if he's sitting on the bench. Other than that, I would like to see Collins get more time. But if the goal is winning, I think we have to go with Goodwin and Engel in the OF regularly with Hamilton and Eaton getting some time also. It would be nice to see Vaughn take over the DH spot because in LF he's much better than Eloy but he's still not going to be running much down, and he's not the greatest playing the ball off of the wall either. No matter how you slice it, losing Robert (more than anything) just kills. Yermin and Vaughn are a good enough insurance policy for Eloy as a DH, and Mendick is a pretty good insurance policy for Madrigal. But losing Robert really hurts the OF and the offense in so many ways.

I checked B-R and the Cardinals didn't get a comp pick in the 2018 draft so it doesn't look like he was ever given the QO. Lynn's trade value was 1 full year of a mid-rotation at worst, top-of-rotation at best SP and innings eater, plus the value of draft pick compensation in his walk year. Way more trade value than Marte. In hindsight, Lynn for Dunning was a steal. Good job Hahn. I didn't like the deal at the time, but I must admit it was a steal now.

You can only have it offered to you once. But I don't remember him getting that offer before. Did he?

Ouch. Unfortunately for us, it seems like there is a precipitous drop-off from Crochet value and everyone else below. I guess if they don't like Thompson and Rodriguez and those guys enough, no dice.

Lynn had 1 full season remaining and had been pitching like a clear QO candidate. Lynn's value was 1 full season of a mid-to-top-end SP plus a draft pick IIRC as I do not believe the QO had been made to him in his last trip through FA. Marte doesn't have anywhere near that value.

All of those are good deals. And Ketel Marte really isn't worth the resources required anyway given what we already have. What about Haniger though? Do you think the Sox could make that deal if they want to, with Crochet (and hopefully Vera + Cespedes) staying here?

Teams aren't going to be asking us about those guys legitimately unless we are asking for a hell of a player, and probably 2+ years of control on top of it. Especially Kopech. Asking about him is just stupid and a waste of time and breath.

It's only June. There are a lot of wishy-washy teams out there and some of them will turn into committed sellers 1-2 weeks before the deadline. Then prices will have to drop. A departing FA on a shit team only hoping for better draft position isn't worth anything to that team except the draft pick return if a QO is offered and declined. But only a few players are going to get that QO. Prices will come way down.

Who is bidding against us? And yes we do, certainly, if we want to overpay. Marte is not going to get a QO and everyone knows that. The Marlins aren't going to do that. That means the offers do not necessarily have to compete against the value of a draft pick. The offers just have to be the best offers of the highest bidders. Haniger is out there also. Maybe the Rockies will eat some cash on Blackmon. Peralta is out there, etc. There are other players available to take some of those competitors of ours away from the table.

Before the season I wouldn't have agreed with this. I would have said that the window for a championship wasn't going to be fully open until at least 1 of Cease/Kopech established himself as a top-end starter with Giolito. But now with Rodon basically acting as our Verlander/Scherzer/etc. kind of bonafide ace type, and heading into FA, we need to try to ride Carlos as far as he will take us. Same with Lynn pitching so well overall and as an impending FA. So for that reason, because I actually believe we now have both the SP and bullpen talent necessary to win a championship, I would fully support the Sox being aggressive this deadline, even in trading for rentals. But that said, it still should be noted that we have a bright future and an open window for the next 2-4 years after this season as well if our SP holds up. If Cease and Kopech turn into a pair of top-end guys along with Giolito, we have a shot at a title in every year we run them out there. So I wouldn't want to piss away our opportunity to win in those years, either. None of us should really have any confidence in the Sox FO re: restocking the farm a bit even while winning, ala the Rays, Indians, Yankees, etc. What we have will increase through the future drafts and INTL periods but it's going to be a pool of talent which is constantly diminishing in numbers of truly interesting players.

I would pursue a negotiation window with Starling Marte in a trade. Maybe offer a bit more if you can get him to agree to a 2-year deal before the deal is finalized. I'm not sure if it has ever been done before, but maybe put a stipulation in the contract that the Sox cannot make a QO after the 2022 season even if that option still exists in the next CBA. I'd feel a lot better about this team with Marte coming here, and I'd feel a lot better about the deal if we could get him for another season. Otherwise we should be trying to get Haniger. The corner OF is a need area regardless. Also, kind of related, Yerminator needs to go down to Charlotte. The hitting skills are there but mentally he is just fucked. The talent/ability is real but he's not getting to it. Send him down, call up Burger or Sheets maybe for a showcase.

All of the bench players who have performed well recently are all in the Major Leagues for a reason. They are all also not normal starting players for a reason, and mostly were recently in the minors for a reason, and were refused guaranteed MLB contracts for a reason. There's really no good reason for Leury Garcia batting 3rd which supercedes all the other reasons to bat him at the bottom of the order.

I could see TLR walking away again if the Sox win it all. I could also see TLR coming back again if the Sox win it all. I could see TLR walking away again if the Sox make the playoffs but lose in the playoffs. I could also see TLR coming back again if the Sox make the playoffs but lose in the playoffs. I could see TLR walking away again if the Sox fail to make the playoffs. I could also see TLR coming back again if the Sox fail to make the playoffs. I could definitely see the dorf letting TLR walk away, of his own volition, but I could also see the dorf trying to convince TLR to stay another season. Really, the only thing I cannot see is anyone in power looking at things like Leury Garcia batting 3rd against the team with the best record in the league as one of many mistakes and stopping TLR from coming back in 2022 because of it. No matter what happens, there are no actual baseball reasons for anything. Either TLR will want to come back or he won't, and the dorf will either let him walk or convince him to stay if TLR doesn't want to come back. But actual baseball matters will not be a factor in any of the decision making. All there is to do is hope the Sox win it all and hope TLR decides to walk away and remains firm in his decision.

Everyone knows there is no way the Marlins are making the QO to Marte. If fact, we really don't even know if there will be a QO in the next CBA. Everyone knows that the the price will be 2+ pieces and the headliner will have to be BPA from an open bidding process, but the headliner will not have to have his value compared to that of a late first rounder or sandwich pick. First off, who are the bidders besides us? I'm not sure which contender needs Marte bad enough or wants him bad enough to give up a quality piece for him. He's probably the best guy out there however from an offense + defense standpoint. He's definitely a difference maker. The Marlins will only get 1 headliner here most likely. Maybe they will weigh quality of depth a bit if it is close, but probably they are just looking at one headlining piece. Typically the gamble is do you want the potentially higher upside of a guy who is farther away and still has a chance to show he's better than you think he is, or the player who is closer and is more of a finished product? For us, I think the best we have of the clearly MLB-ready types who could potentially be available are: Engel, Mendick, Heuer in a RP package deal, Collins maybe even, Ruiz, Fry And the best of the near-MLB ready / MLB ready in the minors types; Lambert, Stiever, Burger, Burdi And the best of the far away upside guys: Kelly, Thompson, Dalquist, Vera, Yoelqui, maybe Rodriguez Maybe I'm missing someone (I don't think I'm missing Rutherford, Luis Gonzalez or Sheets) but I think we'll have to probably have to pull at least 1 if not 2 pieces from that group. I think Heuer is the only RP who could be a headliner but the others could work as 2nd pieces. For what I believe is realistic, I hope the centerpiece is Burger. Not that I want to give him away, but I think the Marlins have so much SP that they wouldn't want to talk about our guys as a centerpiece unless they want to buy low on our younger SPs. I could also see something like Engel + Heuer for Marte + RP as more of a step back / win next year kind of move. I wouldn't be surprised if they love Engel actually. It's Jeter's team and it seems like almost all of their young OFers have shit the bed. I think realistically, if we want to get Marte out of a bidding war, it will be hard to do without overpaying in some capacity. I'm not sure there's a single player we can offer or would offer s a headliner given the sparseness of our farm depth which some other team in greater need wouldn't be willing to beat. If the Marlins need us to offer too much we should give up more for Haniger IMO. At least he's a championship-level stopgap through 2022 and has a realistic chance of becoming a QO candidate if there is a QO in the next CBA after his control expires, and that could potentially yield us a shot at a 1-year contract for the player or draft compensation in 2023. I'm not sure who else is out there. I don't think Peralta is the kind of championship-level player we should be looking for. I'd rather just roll with the depth we have than give up substance for Peralta.

I'm happy with Mendick as the starting 2B. I like Eduardo Escobar as a more versatile Lamb replacement, who can spot-start in several places and add pop off of the bench.

Kennedy is a more ideal fit, much better than Iglesias IMO. We need a guy who will throw strikes and not have so many fits of wildness. We already have that issue with both Bummer and Heuer.

Stiever for Staumont Burger for Staumont Lambert for Staumont Dangerous deal for us to trade a potential SP or corner IF/DH for a RP, but at least he is electric. Maybe something like this is possible. I know people are down on both Lambert and Stiever but personally I liked and still like both better than Dunning personally, and Dunning got us Lynn.

Hudson would be nice. Expensive but nice.

We don't need more marginal 1 inning guys. We need a legit multi-inning type. As far as that goes, judging by Detwiler's performance the last couple of years, those are some pretty high sights for a LR/spot starter type. At least Detwiler has been a SP most of his career. TLR keeps trying to extend guys like Foster and Marshall who just can't be extended. Especially Foster. He has really asked Foster to do something that he just doesn't have the pitch mix to do. The Sox should probably trade one of these 1 inning guys. Between Fry, Foster, Marshall and Ruiz that's 4 guys who are good for a single inning at best and none of them have worked in a SU/high leverage role. I think if you add 2 spots to the pen it is 1) a legit multi-inning/spot starter and 2) a legit high leverage guy. The first type should be an easy get. The second type gets hard to do because we'll most likely be bidding against a lot of other teams in order to acquire a guy who is likely to be a lesser quality RP than either Heuer or Bummer if they right the ship, and lesser than Kopech and Crochet also. I don't really want to start trading away better pieces to get a guy who, if the others all rebound/perform as expected, is the 6th best reliever in the pen.

Y2Jimmy: have the Sox been in on Haniger pretty deep?

Hopefully. If they can add Marte/Haniger and Escobar, they will do a ton to improve the team. Another RP would be nice but at the same time I am pessimistic, because from a talent perspective, we are already loaded. If Heuer and Bummer get it together, sheesh, we are fucking disgusting just as it is. I would still like another long man/spot starter/garbageman and Detwiler can be that guy for little to no cost in money or talent.

We're better than the Rays anyway. They always just have enough to win but then when you look at some of the stats you probably wonder why. We have more All-Star level players than they do. I'm still worried the most about the Yankees in that division and for me it's not even close.

Me too. I'm against giving up too much for spot patch players, but Marte is different because he really is a difference maker. He makes the offense and the defense and the pitching better in multiple places. Still the dorf will have to take on salary. We will see.