YourWhatHurts

Why? Burnes' stuff is way better. I get why the Sox would have interest in both, and I do get why the Sox would give up quality ceiling for Burnes, but not so much for Marco.

They like to hang around really late and sign up the bargain bin guys. That's how they got Cruz in the first place, same when they signed Lance Lynn and IIRC Odorizzi, etc. This is just their MO. And there will still be players available later on as well. Personally, I think because the Indians are kinda tanking a bit after their trade, the Twins will have enough talent to rack up enough wins in this shit division to contend for the playoffs when 5 teams get in, and enough to make them shoo-ins if there are 8 teams, but they don't have the horses or the pen to advance in the postseason, unless they spend beyond their typical norms (they won't) or make trades involving their top young guys (they won't) so I'm really not worried about anything the Twins are doing.

How the fuck is Kike Hernandez worth $7M a year? Especially in a climate where Q is only worth $8M per year? This offseason is just stupid.

If the FO is TLR then you can blame JR. Honestly it'll be pretty stupid if they spend like $23M in 2021 on a DH and a closer when their 2 biggest strengths were offense and bullpen, and fail to get a SP when their most glaring weakness was the rotation, and then KW/Hahn makes another "Can't spend a dollar when you only have 50 cents" kind of comment.

If the Sox keep the right prospects, they may be able to trade a guy like Giolito, Moncada, Eloy, etc later on once it has been realized that they will not be extended further. If we already have a core at that point, then theoretically a deal like that could open up a lot of payroll space and bring back a couple quality prospects, and the organization can perhaps continue on playing meaningful baseball in hopes of yearly contention instead of having to rebuild again.

I agree. That was great for them, but I wouldn't do it for us now. Just remember how close the Cubs were losing to the Indians in the WS. I mean they were like a couple innings away from a WS loss. And even though they improved their team after that year, they never got any closer. It's easy to say you'd trade this or that player for a WS title, but that title is no guarantee. If you lose, and you shorten your contention window by several years in the process, and then you end up in the state that the Cubs are in now, but without a title, you're probably pretty pissed about it.

If you look at the Cubs, they traded Cease, Eloy, and Gleybar as "smaller" centerpieces whose values would have grown immensely had they waited another 6 months to a year. Personally I don't blame Theo and their FO. They were under more pressure than any other team in baseball and maybe under more pressure than other other US team in major professional sports to actually win a title and break the loser image, so they managed things in a way that was a little more desperate. OTOH, I think because the Sox have 2005, at the very least, they should try to let their young guys get to that next level where, if they are still traded, they can bring back a higher level of talent. The Cubs for all of those guys still just got a half year of a closer and like 3 years of a mid-rotation starter.

Ok now to reality, who on this site makes this deal: Crochet + Madrigal + Stiever or Dalquist + Yolbert Sanchez or Cristian Mena for Corbin Burnes + Some MLB bench or inconsequential RP piece If they want better upside than Kelly, then the next step up is Crochet. And I also can't see them wanting a package around Crochet without also wanting a SP prospect with some more certainty as insurance.

Their GM is probably every bit in love with whatever projections he's getting from his scouting and analytics departments as anyone else. There probably isn't much negotiation room available given the overall lack of depth in the Sox org. If they want to keep out their very best guys, then I think the Sox could maybe make a volume deal, but the Brewers people still have to believe they are getting excellent prospects. No team wants to deal the best player in the deal, especially when that guy isn't even expensive and is still under control for a long time. Each side wants to gain the best player in the deal. And if the Brewers are not absolutely in love with the upside of at least 2 or 3 other Sox prospects to the point where they feel the reward is worth the risk, they won't make the deal. There's probably not even much real discussion here. Stupid Sox should have just signed Q.

Yeah that makes no sense First, Crochet would be the centerpiece. IMO Stiever is the best guy in the other package anyway, but you don't try to swap the centerpiece. Also Stiever is probably the kind of guy that they wouldn't negotiate out because he's closet to being MLB ready as a SP. The biggest upside in the real package is Kelly. Trying to swap Kelly for Crochet also isn't something they are going to do on an already-agreed-upon deal. Really I just can't see why they would see Madrigal as a centerpiece in a Burnes deal. I also don't see why they would see Heuer as a 2nd piece. That doesn't make a lot of sense. I think in a realistic deal that doesn't include Crochet, Kopech or Vaughn, they want Kelly's upside first, Stiever's upside and closeness to MLB (and they love him like I do and aren't down on him at all), and they think Madrigal is is the #3 upside guy on here, and Heuer is really a high-quality 4th piece. So Kelly + Stiever + Madrigal + Heuer in that order basically. I just really have a hard time thinking any team is really that in love with Madrigal. I mean I keep seeing this listing of Sox top prospects of Vaughn/Kopech/Crochet/Madrigal in whatever order. One guy definitely does not belong in that conversation or tier. And honestly, due to general injury concerns, it's really Kopech and Vaughn in Tier 1, Crochet alone in Tier 2, then Madrigal is in the same Tier with several other guys, and you can like one guy more than another for this or that reason, but Kelly is the top guy in ultimate upside and Madrigal is the top guy in MLB floor. Of course if the Brewers think (they don't, but let's take the trolley to the Kingdom of Make-Believe) that Madrigal is really a centerpiece in a Burnes deal, then that's terrific.

With their bullpen they should have loved the idea of Q. They don't need him to go 3 times through the order. I hated the allocation of resources to Hendriks, but whatever, he's here now. Spending to deepen the bullpen makes sense if you're going to use the advantages you get from it. They could have always slotted Keuchel between Q and Cease to give the pen a break. I'm not sure the Sox have much of a plan here.

I really wouldn't want to give up Heuer if it's possible. I don't care so much about general injury concerns for a RP. He's still really valuable to what we are trying to do. I also don't think any RP for the Brewers is a huge need unless they have a Hader deal lined up somehow. And While I do think that a lot of teams probably value Zach Collins a lot higher then Soxtalk seems to, and would like to run him out there and see what happens, I don't think he's a needle-mover in a deal like this. IMO a more realistic package - and one which doesn't include Heuer - is probably Madrigal + Kelly + Stiever + Dalquist/Thompson. Personally I'd definitely prefer that package to the one with Heuer and Collins if I am MIL. I also threw out taking back Avi as an idea. I bet MIL would like to get out of that contract and dive into the bargain bin for his replacement, and spread that $10M this year around. Maybe offer Marshall or Foster and offer to take back Avi instead of giving up Heuer.

We could always dump him off elsewhere. If that deal is on the table, I bet we've already done it.

They already have Narvaez. Obviously they don't care about C defense. Collins is an improvement for them. Urias has been total shit in MLB. But hey I guess running him out there is a win now move too? They can trade Yelich any time they want to. If the Brewers want the Sox to put guys like Vaughn on the table, they know who to add to the discussions. I'm sure they would prefer to dump off Cain and Avi's deals if they could and go looking for values like JBJ and Mazara on the open market. But they can't.

IMO, sign Tanaka for $15M. Just suck it up and spend the few extra dollars.

I guess I will say this: if the Sox make a stupid deal that bites them in the ass hard for next several years, because once again they fail to properly evaluate their own in-house talent, then I would rather they make that deal with the Brewers than any other team in baseball. If they trade one or several of my favorite Sox prospects, it will be much more fun at least half-rooting for them in Milwaukee instead of purely lamenting their losses and hating the Sox FO more and more every time they do something really good.

Sounds like a thoughtful guy. Hmm, I wonder if Melissa Rivers is the building and ready to spin this into a big negative?

And if it does translate, he's better than Burnes. A lot better than Burnes.

The hate seems more than a little overbearing, especially relative to his upside and his work ethic. Seriously.

Kopech is an alpha type. Yes he made a mistake believing he needed to associate with some Hollywood something-something, but he's still just a kid. He kills it in the weight room and he believes he can accomplish anything he wants. He's 100% a keeper for me. Not to be "like that" but look at the physical bodies involved here and look at that kind of dedication. Then look at the "stuff" too. Kopech is the biggest alpha in the discussion. Yes he had TJ. Lots of pitchers do. This isn't like the 70s or 80s or something. He'll be fine. Personally I hope the Sox try to extend him. He's exactly the type who, IMO, no matter what he is getting paid, he is going to try to be the best. And clearly his decision to opt out of last year was the best thing for the Sox. He needs a full season anyway, and having him give up yet another year of team control just to throw 3/8 of a season of innings while starting and stopping again, would have been a loss. IMO Kopech is the last prospect in the org you look to trade, You even trade Vaughn or Crochet before you trade him. Personally I wonder if some here are just jealous.....

When you need a twitter fix that bad you should just check your self into rehab

Dickman

BTW I forgot to add that this is an answer to the $15M left over question.

Avi is owed $12M guaranteed through 2021 plus the 2022 buyout. Brewers are hard up for cash. Sox can send Madrigal, Engel, Heuer, Kelly and take back Burnes and Avi. Avi plays LF and pushes Eloy to DH and is a temporary Vaughn blocker.

IP, ERA, BB/9, K/9, H/9, WHIP, official ranking in Cy Young voting I want to see 200+IP out of an ace. And in honesty, it's not fair to expect that out of Burnes, so I don't think 2021 is really the year. Maybe in peripherals Burnes can be a bit better in 150IP than Gio in 200+ but that's not a better pitcher.