YourWhatHurts

Those numbers would assume the new hire is at least fairly competent, reasonable, and legitimately interested in the development of our young players. We shouldn't hire anyone who would want to put Vaughn in at a lesser clip than that.

Whatever. I was throwing it out there. I'm not going to argue with you fools. If Sale is healthy that trade is an absolute raping of the Red Sox, leveraging their fear of guaranteed money and need to rebuild or retool against them and to our benefit.

Keuchel is getting 56M over the next three years, an AAV of 18.667M per season. He also likely overachieved last year. We are basically already hoping he is worth his contract the next three seasons. His present performance ceiling also is one which is much easier to replace in house than Sale's performance ceiling pre-TJ. It's not like he's some great SP who isn't already taking up a decent chunk of payroll. And we're still paying him through his age 35 season. Again, Vazquez is better than McCann anyway. And McCann's FA deal is going to be a lot more than he was getting now, and more than Vazquez is signed for as it is. And who would take Grandal? I think the Red Sox are one of the few teams would, but most likely, those teams will want to send out salary in the deal. And I would not just trade Grandal for the sake of it, then have no C, then bid on McCann as a FA, only to get outbid and left overpaying Mike Zunino on a 3 year deal or something like that. That's a terrible plan.

What makes you think he will not recover from TJ? Maybe ptatc could talk about this, or someone who actually has a reason why he wouldn't recover. Realistically, this org knows him better, and has treated his body better, than anyone else. If our people thought he would recover then yes it would be a risk, but one that could offer a potentially huge reward.

1) Do you have any idea how much better a healthy Chris Sale is than Keuchel? A significant upgrade is in itself a purpose. 2) Adding more SP I already addressed. By sending out Keuchel's salary we could theoretically also still add another SP this offseason. IMO Bauer and Stroman both, and also maybe Gausman, are better than Keuchel. Paxton and Tanaka if healthy are also better. There are some real options to make 2 improvements over the guy that Keuchel will be in 2021 through 2023. 3) McCann is a FA. We maybe can have him back if we want him but he's the biggest C target on the FA market IMO, because only Realmuto is better, but because Realmuto is actually great and will want lots of money and years, only a handful of teams will even bother to bid on him, leaving McCann as the best C target available most likely for most teams. Even if we could sign him back, Vazquez is a most likely a better player on paper, and Vazquez is already on a much better (and cheaper) contract than McCann will get as a FA.

Crazy but IMO actually sensible deal if the Red Sox want to dump salary: Sale + Vazquez for Grandal + Keuchel + Lopez + Rodon + Mazara, pre-nontender deadline Why for Sox: They are probably looking at trying to dump Rodon and Mazara anyway, and probably looking at least at a change of scenery deal with Lopez. They effectively swap out Keuchel's spot and contract for Sale's, meaning that there's more risk and more money, but way more upside also. Vazquez slots in at C and Collins sits behind him. In reality, Vazquez is an upgrade over Grandal as a C immediately, and he is under control through 2022 with also a chance at a QO if he is worthy for 2023. Grandal is guaranteed through 2023 so it's almost a wash on control, and Vazquez is more easily extendable for 2023-2024 because his current contract basically would mean that the Sox have him by the balls a bit. I bet Hahn could extend Vazquez's deal. Why for Red Sox: They get to dump all of the remaining salary owed to Sale. Also they can choose whether they want to try to take a shot on Rodon as a SP or closer as a deadline piece, and a shot at Mazara also as a deadline trade piece. Keuchel gives them rotation certainty at a much more reasonable cost and Grandal really fits the Red Sox as a part time C part time DH with OBP and power. Lopez is also a reclamation project they have rotation space form, but one they could try to keep if they can fix him. If the Red Sox wanted they could nontender everyone but Keuchel and Grandal. Not sure on arb raises but in 2020 salary the Sox send out 18.25M for Grandal + 18M for Keuchel + 4.45M for Rodon + 5.56M for Mazara + 0.605M for Lopez = 46.865M in 2020 salary, and send out 110.75M in guaranteed obligations to Keuchel (56M through 2023) and Grandal (54.75M through 2023). Meanwhile the Red Sox send out 30M for Sale + 4.2M for Vazquez = 34.2M in 2020 salary and send out 142.25M in guaranteed obligations to Sale (135M through 2025) and Vazquez (6.25M in 2021 with a club option on 2022 for 7M with a 0.25M buyout). The Sox would take on about 31M more in guaranteed money but would get Sale through 2025 and Vazquez through at least 2022, again with a great chance of keeping him beyond that point. Personally I would chance it with Sale if the medical staff and pitching coaches could look at him. The contract lessens in value over time, down to 27.5M then 20M in 2025 for his age 36 season. We would be betting on a successful return from TJ and paying for his age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36 seasons, probably hoping we get some help in the second half of 2021, an ace in 2022-23, maybe a #3 in 2024, and a #5 or reliever in 2025. **Edit: I like this deal because it redirects 2 contracts that I think are going to be at least somewhat regretful in 2022-23 anyway, and allows us a chance to put a legit #1 and a LHP at the top of our rotation (again) while making a defensive upgrade at C for our playoff window. And hopefully it would keep enough salary available to still go after Stroman/Bauer/etc. this offseason. I really am not a huge fan of Grandal behind the plate overall and as a leader of the pitching staff and defense, and I also don't like him taking DH ABs from Eloy who should be there now and Abreu who should be there pretty soon. And additionally I still think Keuchel is more likely to be a #3-#5 than the top-end guy he pitched like this season, and the guy who once won a Cy Young.

IMO Scherzer and DeGrom are #1s that could be available. Maybe there are others I am not thinking about. I don't see Lynn as a #1 either and I wouldn't trade for him at all.

If you cut out 1 rotation slot in 2021 then you stop at least 1 if not 2 or more pitchers from developing during that season. These guys need rotation slots not pen work.

No, not really. A 2/3 IMO.

The Sox already have Cease, Dunning, Kopech, Stiever, and Crochet at or near the MLB level with Kelly, Thompson, Dalquist, and Vera potentially 2-3 years behind them. I really don't see why adding 2 of those types helps us win later. We should be trying to win now and later, and we can't win later if we fail to give opportunities to our own player. Notice I am already completely omitting Reynaldo which at least some other teams wouldn't do. Just think about the Cubs for a second. Their fans have to be excited about Alec Mills, in part because he threw a no-no. He's got less upside than Phil Humber did. We're in a great position so we shouldn't ruin it. We have a list of guys who could be as good or better than all of three of those names by 2022 or even a couple by next year.

The ideal model for this rotation will be proven excellence at the top and open spots at the back saved for the developement of our other players. We already have Keuchel as a depth piece even though he pitched like a top end guy this season. There should be an attempt to make one addition at the front end and then give Cease and Dunning a spot. Stroman and Bauer aren't really the ideal top end guys but they're good enough to slot in near the top of this rotation. Even if the idea is to one day trade Dunning, if you give him a full season to establish himself at the MLB level then maybe he could be a 1st piece or a big second piece in a deal next year. We really need to manage the pieces we are trading well. The farm system quality is going to drop off very fast after our top few guys and it's hard to replenish it while contending. If we manage things well, we should be able to smartly develop players and then trade others after they have proven to be MLB pieces for the chance to turn the window into a 6-8 year contention window instead of otherwise, which would be like a 3-5 year window only.

It should go to the Rays GM. If I were Sox GM I would fake trade negotiations with the Rays just to see which guys on my farm they liked the most, then I would call off talks and keep those players, whatever their names were.

Baron Samedi is the closest thing to the real life JoBu, just in case you all were wondering. I put this in the Diamond Club because it involves all of the teams IMO. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baron_Samedi There is a lot more on the internet also. I have known about Baron Samedi for several years now. One day I was watching a cops show, like Cops or that Live PD show, and a suspect was this following this girl around his neighborhood telling her that Baron Samedi was trying to get her. He was explaining this to the officer and the officer was taking the information as though Baron Samedi is just some guy who lives in the area. Actually, as it turns out, Baron Samedi occupies the underworld, but is known to take offerings for humans and do favors for them. Per wikipedia, Baron Samedi likes "cigars, rum, black coffee, grilled peanuts, or bread."

If you're going to interview TLR, why not him first? Pick his brain in the interview before you get to the other candidates. Think about it: if you already know you will be interviewing younger potential managers, and if you are looking for a guy who hopefully could stick around the game as long as TLR has, why wouldn't you talk to TLR first and then compare the other interviews to his after? There are advantages here for the Sox just by interviewing him. He's friends with ownership so I doubt they won't do favors for each other. This might just be an opportunity to gather info and there may not even be a real intention of hiring him.

That's why I added "if he thought it was necessary." I trust TLR is the kind of guy who would keep AJ in line. Regardless, you are not in the Sox dugout. There's so much hate in Sox fan forums for AJ that isn't even warranted. It's a lot like the fans complaining for years that Frank was a whiner, etc. The same thoughts get repeated over and over, but look at how long AJ stuck around in baseball and how many players he must have gotten along with to last so long. Look at Puig now. AJ's reputation has always been overinflated. There really is no basis for you to say he was never on the same page with his teammates and management / coaching staff. For how much Ozzie says he hated AJ, how many years did AJ play for Ozzie? Ozzie always laughs when he says that and makes an remark about AJ. But then ask Ozzie about Swisher and you see the difference. I mean for as much as this organization has been built around SP, there's no way AJ would have lasted so long if he was actually the guy you're painting him as. He led a championship pitching staff on the field and continued to lead quality pitchers for the rest of his career. He really mustn't be that bad.

You don't think a guy like TLR would verbally undress AJ right in the middle of the dugout and in front of the players if he thought it was necessary? I certainly do. He's a keeper of the order.

***I also just wanted to ad to this thread that I think it's crazy that Carlton Fisk never became a manager. Anyone know why?

Why would he need to be at Great Falls with a guy like Getz as his superior when let's be honest Getz was just a jabroni at the MLB level. If you put AJ at 3B under TLR or Bruce Bochy, and advance him to bench coach after a year, then maybe manager after at least 2 years of being a bench coach, then that is fine. Believe me, AJ working under TLR directly, with TLR directly reporting directly to ownership, is a lot more likely to "put AJ in line" or "keep AJ in line" than being stuck in the minors under a bunch of guys with nothing even close to his resume. Honestly, the idea of AJ taking instruction from a guy like Getz is insulting.

I would agree that there is a lot of "conversation" around AJ as a competitor and teammate, and I do believe that there is enough of it that he would need to be "supervised" and "developed" under a veteran manager, and would need to spend time working with players directly. In short, he would have to "earn it" and prove he deserved the job. I wouldn't just hand him the reigns. I believe I suggested he come in as a bench coach with the idea of developing into a manager. There's a lot to like about a manager who thinks like him and has that kind of wiring in his brain. Again in my previous example I mentioned Josh Paul, who maybe is a nice guy type and is involved in coaching, etc., but AJ was always smarter. He's been places and done things Josh Paul has not and never will. He's a smarter player and would be a smarter manager. Re: his attitude, I love the competitiveness. I love how he kind of shines when you put the spotlight on him. A lot like Paulie, when you take a shot at him, he takes a shot back at you. I love all of it. I actually want those qualities. I don't want some sissy with a degree who was "groomed for the position" by a bunch of front office types. That's what it seems most people want. AJ grew up on a baseball field as a life-long catcher and has seen everything there is to see, and has spent his entire career thinking about pitches, hitters, pitching sequences, infield and outfield arrangements, and baserunners. And he can be a total fucking dick and probably really support his players when they need him. Honestly, I think he has the tools to be great. But he would need to develop. He would have to prove that he really wants it and deserves it.

You are the one who made the passionate nonsensical post where you implied that I didn't have any reason to think he would be a good manager other than the fact that he was a former popular player, not me. I actually made a supporting argument.

I was never sure how much of that was just players being players and how much was real. I remember AJ saying how much he and Ian Kinsler got along in Texas after AJ hated him, etc., and it might be a takes one to know one thing. He got along with Mark just fine, and was definitely not a Swisher fan. I think maybe his personality is probably one that is a bit rough by design to some of his peers, but I am not sure he would be that way to players. Perhaps the bigger question would be if he could get along with the FO. But even though I expect there might be some issues there, most of the really good managers seem to have a bit of an ego, and I actually like that.

I don't know what the rules are about negotiating but maybe this is an attempt from the FO to learn some things from TLR (via the interview) to help them with their process. And I don't think it is a "slap in the face" to bring him in just to get his input on some things given the relationship between him and ownership. Obviously if the Sox actually wanted to him to manage the team, there would be contingency plans worked out to at least some degree even before the hiring took place. This would be a situation where most likely there's another replacement direction lined up and TLR has some outs in the deal.

Not to be an ass but did you watch the guy play? He was one of the smartest Sox players I have ever seen. I can't think of anyone smarter. As a C his job is to think like a manager, and he spent his entire career thinking that way. Robin Ventura was a nice guy type and a 3B. No way his brain works like AJ's. That dropped third strike in the ALCS is vintage AJ, and Josh Paul is the stereotypical "catcher." AJ waits, then runs to first because he's always a heads-up baseball player. OTOH if it was the other way around, and AJ was catching, he would always tag the guy or throw to first, again because he is a heads-up player. Hawk has raved about the baseball mind AJ has, and I know its Hawk yadda yadda yadda but Hawk knows him personally and has known him his whole life, and for him to rave about his mind like that is still significant. There's a reason Sox fans hated AJ when he was with the Twins, and also a reason so many were thrilled when SF cut him and he signed here. I mean, I started this thread, and immediately recommended Mike Scoscia. I didn't know he was that anti-new age baseball. I don't think AJ is that kind of guy, even though he mocks framing quite a bit. Even still I kind of agree with him on framing because the idea of a catcher "stealing" a strike is predicated on the umpire being a shitty ump and not fit for the job if he can so easily be influenced. I think maybe you have some unnecessary AJ hate. Out of all of the former Sox guys, he'd be my pick. I also bet Juan Uribe would be an excellent 3B coach, also because he's one of the smarter players I have seen play. That pair in the clubhouse might be kind of half great / half nightmare. I dunno.

I think AJ Pierzynski has all of the qualities I would love to see in a manager, for the long haul, but his ego might be too big. I think he would be a very smart game manager. IMO, AJ as bench coach, MB as assistant pitching coach, and both are groomed to be manager and pitching coach. I'm not sure MB would ever have the mind to manage but I bet he could be a great pitching coach, if he had any interest.

He's had several interviews with other organizations but has never been hired. Not sure why.