South Side Hit Men

Add the Reds to the current list (Miami and A’s) of tanking teams willing to pitch frontline pitching which may interest the White Sox.

The Pirates’ #27 Prospect, Ji-Hwan Bae was placed under a 30 game minor league suspension for his NYE 2017 Domestic Violence incident against his girlfriend in South Korea. His victim (who was publicly known prior to today), Seul-GI Kim, has requested that the Pirates release Bae. Kim was awarded the US Equivalent of $1,755 last month in her civil lawsuit filed in South Korea, which she donated to a fund which helps victims of Domestic Violence. Bae was convicted in criminal court in 2018. Bae, currently 19, was not a member of the Pirates at the time of the incident, signing two plus months after the incident, with a $1.2M signing bonus. https://theathletic.com/932591/2019/04/19/assault-victim-calls-for-pirates-to-release-suspended-minor-leaguer-ji-hwan-bae/ I post this in part to compare and contrast with the Trevor Bauer’s incident, which MLB has yet to announce an update since Trevor’s fully paid leave. It will be interesting whether MLB will attempt to assess Trevor Bauer a significantly higher suspension, in part due the significant amount of salary they can attempt to confiscate.

Those people are being "screwed" by the "stewards of the game", i.e. the owners, not baseball players.

When I stated league wide revenue sharing, I meant the current sharing of mlb.com and national television contract revenue and other revenue currently split equally among the 30 teams. This should be split based on a percentage of wins. In addition to this revenue, currently 48% of local revenues (broadcast, ticket, stadium) are also subject to revenue sharing based CBA agreements. Historically, away teams split a portion of ticket revenue with home teams, and this would remain the same (with a change negotiable among the owners set for the league). An no, the "Yankees and Dodgers" would not win every single year. The Dodgers didn't win a WS in 40 years, the Yankees the past 20. They have had, and would continue to have, significant revenue advantage over small market teams. They have failed, and would continue to fail, if they field overpriced but poor teams, as they have for decades. A team winning 60 of 162 would still get significant split MLB/TV revenue. The base team would be 81 wins, a 60 win team would get 3/4 of what they get now, a 100 win team close to 1/4 more. There would be a few small market teams who would, and frankly should fold. A 24-26 team league would be prudent, consisting of teams actually willing and capable of fielding a compelling product on a consistent basis. There is no reason cities which consistently draw 7-12 K fans should exist. You wouldn't need a ridiculous 14-16 playoff team scheme "to keep fans interested". Good teams and fielding the best teams possible "keep fans interested". Tanking keeps fans (both home and when your team visits away) disinterested, and has contributed to the annual declines in attendance and tv ratings over the years. Teams that field consistent bottom five, 60-70 win product, with well under league average payrolls, payrolls well under their league welfare check, year after year for decades, are nothing but parasites. They degrade the competition and sport. Inducements to suck, which Jerry and Bud ushered in to depress payrolls, are as Boras said, a noncompetitive cancer on the sport we love. MLB needs chemotherapy if it wants to survive and thrive. It needs to reward the teams which try to do their best, not teams which lose intentionally.

Reward teams who are actually putting a quality team and entertaining fans. End "Small Market" Subsidies / Revenue Redistribution Draft lottery, one ball per win. League-wide revenue sharing, replace 1/30 with % of league wins. The current system rewards teams which suck, teams who do not spend, teams who merely exist as a Congressionally protected entitled welfare recipient and add nothing to MLB or society. Win 60 games, get the bottom picks, get the least amount of league revenue, do better, suck ass for eternity or fold your team like any other free market business. You shouldn't get an advantage for sucking so bad you draw seven thousand fans a game, yet profit more than most or all other teams by cashing your welfare checks and fielding 100 loss teams with 26 AAA/AAAA types.

QFT. Boras is right, usually is. Wish he was battling the owners instead of Tony Clark. Every single word is true, though most here will instantly oppose it because Boras spoke the truth.

Games start in close to 3, but players report a few weeks prior. There are significant financial penalties due from owners to ST facilities in the event the full ST schedule is not conducted / honored due to an owner lockout. Solid free podcast with an introduction to the basic issues confronting the negotiations by Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich below. Glad to have a subscription to one of the few independent media sources still in existence.

Could generate up to $6 Million for the Museum.

I am much more optimistic there will be a 2022 season (120 - 162 games) than I was in 1994-1995, primarily because Jerry was the hardliner pulling Selig’s strings, who preferred the scorched earth negotiating policy last time around. Jerry no longer holds sway over the sport. First he lost in court after Sonia Sotomayor rejected the owners scheme to use scab players. Then, Owners had enough of Jerry’s antics, and Jerry lost the vote to ratify an agreement 26-4, while being rebuked and humiliated in the process. Jerry has not held sway since, including being the lone owner to oppose Manfred on the search committee to replace Selig. Jerry did not oppose Manfred because Manfred is a clown, but rather because Jerry felt Manfred would be insufficiently anti-player/union in future CBA negotiations. Owners will fight tooth and nail, but there is no evidence they are looking to kill the MLBPA and sport in the process, as they were led by Jerry/Bud in the mid-1990s.

LOL, "Playoff appearances" are NOT the standard, playoff performance and fielding a competitive playoff team is the standard. The stated window for Hahn and any plan seeking accountability is "Championship Window", not winning an AL Central over four tanking teams or a Wild Card birth while legitimate micro small market teams Cleveland and Minnesota were actually trying. Fielding competitive teams that can compete in October is the goal. If they were like the Giants or other teams and played a competitive full series losing in a heartbreaking final game 5/7, than yes, they at least can say they fielded a competitive team with a possible chance at advancing and competing for a WS. The Sox were the least competitive team across all 2021 playoff DS/CS/WS teams. This was not a "crapshoot", this was a complete and utter domination by Dusty Baker and the Houston Astros. In terms of playoffs and "salary inflation", the Sox were 13th in 2005, and finished 12th in 2021 (CBA tax / full season tracking), with likely Top 10 payrolls planned until fans grow wise to Jerry's latest carrot scheme. Kenny Williams picked up several players who were key contributors to THREE playoff series wins (three more than Hahn plus Tony combined over nearly two combined decades of White Sox baseball), and an 11-1 (.917) playoff record in 2005, 12-4 (.750) overall. Meanwhile Tony La Russa, (2-6 .250 lifetime in eight + years with White Sox - the only record I and other Sox fans should give a rats ass about) and Hahn 2-5 (.286) were completely owned and nowhere close to fielding a competitive playoff team, despite three months of rest, Tony's "playoff switch" and "HOF schematic advantage", silly gamesmanship and unwritten rules obsession. Kenny Williams spread the payroll across dozens of successful bets. Hahn was all in on a few old Free Agents, going well over any other reported bid, and failed miserably. What Playoff "juice" did North Shore Cubby Boi Rick Hahn "squeeze" after $120M + spent during the past two seasons under their "World Championship Window"? $36.5M Keuchel 3 1/3 IP, 8.10 ERA, Banned from 2021 playoff roster, team and fans hope he does not return or does not vest next year. $36.6M Grandal Kudos he hit outstanding, Hahn's one shinning moment, though he calls shitty games, cannot catch breaking balls, had a Playoff CERA of 1-5 6.84 (McCann 1-0 1.00). $36.5M to go, two knee surgeries and counting. $13.0M Encarnacion OPS 0.000 Completely worthless from Day One. $11.3M Hendriks 9.00 ERA, Meaningless playoff appearances (9.00 ERA), but he should pan out OK the rest of the three seasons, not $18M + like the other three. Hahn's other decent signing. $9.5M Lynn 3 2/3 IP, 12.27 ERA. Hahn needlessly committed another $39.0M midseason and he petered out since then, with a likely knee surgery on deck and regression to follow. $8.0M Eaton DFA in July, worthless as most fans projected upon his signing announcement. Hahn thought this was wise. (Narrator "It was not.") $5.0M Kimbrel Completely worthless, Hahn doubled down and threw $16.0M more onto the fire in an attempt to salvage something, anything, for this complete disaster. In terms of "false narratives", Hahn has spent the past week claiming the Sox did not win their "ultimate goal" of winning the final postseason game. This is completely disingenuous. They fell far, far short of getting to that point, falling three rounds short and not even close to fielding a competitive playoff team this year, or his previous eight seasons. They regressed from Ricky Renteria performed in 2020, despite the fact they significantly bumped payroll. They are payroll top heavy and entering a third season with limited flexibility to properly fill RF (Hahn fielded 16 "solutions" the past two seasons) and 2B (Mendick and Romy are the current #1 and #2 options), and no signs they can afford substantial upgrades after going all in on Keuchel, Grandal, Kimbrel and Lynn's extension. Yes the money has been spent. Sadly it was spent by Rick Hahn. Kenny Williams didn't have a losing record as GM, didn't need to pawn off everything inherited by the previous GM plus four additional years to make the playoffs. Kenny Williams finished with a World Series after four seasons. Hahn began tanking after four seasons, pawning off anything he inherited off of Kenny Williams to buy five more years without a single playoff advancing team before or after. Kenny Williams was the only successful GM in a century of White Sox baseball. His only fault was keeping Hahn around for a decade, and he likely had no say in the matter. Kenny was sadly screwed by Jerry out of a promotion to become Toronto's President (Kenny still is third in command behind Jerry and Howard Pizer). He and his players deserved a better fate than be saddled with Jerry, Hahn and La Russa during his career.

I stated my initial projected payroll was $162.4M. It's a significant increase year over year, yet you rip my posts as "way too pessimistic". Not sure why you feel the need to continuously denigrate my position, or state that I'm "crazy" by quoting estimates I never stated or implied ($150M-$155M). You aren't writing the checks or making the decisions, but are speaking as though you know everything with near to complete certainty. I saw your plan, questioned where you got the fWAR estimates (your estimates, not any independent estimates), and left it at that. Both of our positions are stated in terms of estimated payroll. Let's leave it at that and find out who was correct or if the difference was split. No need to concoct estimates I've never made, trash or mischaracterize what I estimated, or proclaim that being within 4.4% of a "reasonable target" is somehow "way too pessimistic".

Let's wait and see if the Sox ever advance a single round under Hahn before mocking what Kenny did over his 12 years. Kenny did it in four seasons. Hahn is entering season ten, zero playoff success, far more financial resources at his disposal than what Kenny had to work with.

It's realistic (and a + 20% increase over last year's OD is more realistic than the $185-$200M + people are bantering about). Plus it is more savvy to trade our surplus DH types and get quality cost controlled pitching in return. Time will tell how the final OD roster shapes up, but there is no evidence a 40% ($180M) to 50% ($192M) plus year over year OD payroll increase is likely, especially when 2021 was already the highest OD payroll in White Sox history. The Sox currently have the 6th highest payroll, they are not going to be at or above the current luxury tax. There is no magic wand to make Hahn's poor acquisitions like Kimbrel (they should have let him walk) and Keuchel disappear. The money has been spent, just not very wisely or broadly across the roster.

This is how the lone White Sox team within the past century which actually advanced in the playoffs was built. A mix of young Ron Schuler's solid young player core and a dozen savvy Kenny Williams free agent and trade acquisitions. Hahn hamstrung flexibility or ability to add depth and fill holes by spending over $200M on a few older FAs at top of market prices (Grandal $73M, Keuchel $56M or $74M, Lynn's $39M extension, Encarnacion $13M, and whatever they get for the $20M (plus Heuer and Madrigal) spent on Kimbrel). 2005 Chicago White Sox 99-63 $75.1M Opening Day Payroll (13th in MLB) Ron Schuler Draft Picks / Trade Acqusitions: (Just over $1M for each 1 bWAR for this solid young core) Mark Beuhrle (1998 36th Round) $6.0M / 4.8 (bWAR) Jon Garland (1998 Trade) $3.4M / 4.7 Paul Konerko (1998 Trade) $8.8M / 4.0 Aaron Rowand (1998 1st Round) $2.0M / 3.7 Joe Crede (1996 5th Round) $0.4M / 1.6 Kenny Williams Savvy Trade & Free Agent Acquisitions: ($2M for 1 bWAR for Contreras and Garcia, $1M for 1 bWAR for the rest) Jose Contreras (2004 Trade) $8.5M / 3.6 Freddy Garcia (2004 Trade) $8.0M / 3.5 Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.8 Cliff Polite (2004 Free Agent) $1.0M / 2.7 Jermaine Dye (2005 Free Agent) $4.0M / 2.5 A. J. Pierzynski (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.3 Juan Uribe (2004 Trade) $2.2M / 2,2 Neal Cotts (2002 Trade) $0.3M / 2.0 Dustin Hermanson (2005 Free Agent) $2.0M / 2.0 Scott Podsednik (2005 Trade Acquisition) $0.7M / 1.7 Brandon McCarthy (2002 17th Round) $0.3M / 1.2

People should also factor the Sox 2023 commitments in terms of FA or trade returns salaries beyond this season. Looking at over $115M for nine guys in 2023: Lynn $18.5M Grandal $18.3M Moncada $17.8M Hendriks $14.3M Anderson $12.5M (or $1M buy-out) Jimenez $10.3M Giolito $10.0M (Arb estimate) Robert $9.5M Bummer $3.8M This doesn't include a likely Abreu return in the $16M-$20M 1-2 year range, and also doesn't include Keuchel vesting at $20M, so likely $135M (Abreu + Keuchel Buyout), or $155M if Keuchel bounces back and hits 160 IP. That's why it's unlikely they are picking up high priced FAs this season, any additions will be either via trade or shopping in the Aldi / Butera Free Agency section.

Add Oakland (Miami noted earlier) in terms of opportunities to pickup solid pitching at reasonable AAVs via trade. The likely route if the Sox are looking for a pitcher to replace Rodon (vs. handling internally plus perhaps 1-2 NRIs).

Things might be a bit expensive like your grocery aisle this off-season.

Yes, I posted earlier I liked Ray at 3-4 years and a $17M AAV, and their estimate is 1-2 years longer and $9M more per year. With the current hyperinflation environment, and the large and growing amount of ancillary revenue owners have been shielding over the years, I can see agents pushing for a more equitable AAV this off-season.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted the likely AAV and contract terms for their Top 50 Free Agents. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ They predicted a one year $25M contract for Carlos Rodon, with Houston, Boston and the Angels as the predicted destinations by the three writers. Of the 150 selections (3 writers predicted the destination for the Top 50 players), the Sox had 3 of the 150 selections: #32 Michael Conforto (Steve Adams) 1 Year / $20M #35 Eduardo Escobar (Steve Adams) 2 Years / $20M Total #43 Jonathan Villar (Anthony Franco) 2 Years / $14M Total Other Notables: #6 Marcus Semien 6 Years / $138M #7 Robbie Ray 5 Years / $130M #15 Kyle Schwarber 4 Years / $70M #16 Chris Taylor 4 Years / $64M #45 Ryan Tepera 2 Years / $12M #49 Yan Gomes 2 Years / $10M

OK, just wanted to confirm they weren't from a source. For consistent fWAR for comparing plans, picking a single public free source would help better compare plans, IMO. consistent with also using the same salary info. I did a rough quick estimate earlier, will do another using Fangraphs FA tracker (contract and fWAR) and MLB trade rumor arbitration estimates once the remaining QO player responses are filed later this month, if they update before the Owner Lockout. Was encouraged by the article Miami is looking to trade controllable top pitching, will definitely be somewhere I, and more importantly hopefully the White Sox, will seriously consider.

Where are you pulling these "fWAR" estimates? Those are inflated in many instances vs. what I see on Fangraphs. Their Free Agent tracker uses 2022 Steamer projections. Provide a link if you have one.

Easy decision for Marcus. Players 4 (Semien; Castellanos; Seager; Conforto) Teams 0 Pending: 10

Definitely not worth the squeeze. Assuming the Sox are spending that kind of money on a single player, I’d prefer a top pitcher or Semien. They can at least cover RF with upside from Sheets, Vaughn and Engel if he can ever stay healthy (goes for Eloy as well). They can’t cover 2B or SP depth internally (Lambert?), and also could use one or two solid RPs if they want to be legitimate contenders with legitimate depth assuming they also return Leury and a solid catcher.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/early-qualifying-offer-decisions.html Of the 14 players receiving QOs, the players I can see likely to consider accepting are: Raisel Iglesias, as that’s likely higher than any AAV he can expect, and opens up unrestricted (no lost pick) FA next year. Brandon Belt - just don’t see looking to give him a multi year contract over $18.4M including a draft pick. The two injured pitchers, Syndergaard and Verlander. Can reset their value with healthy 2022 performances if they like the organizations they are currently with. Castellanos, Conforto and Seager already rejected, with Correa, Freeman, Ray, Semien and Story superlocks to reject; with Taylor and Rodriguez likely to Fly the Coop.