South Side Hit Men

It's merely projected standings and odds, not tons of info. Looks good on the PC, perhaps harder to follow on a phone. Just commenting there was no zero substance beyond a pot shot in the other thread, or even a link to the projections. Here's your YouTube Ron for cherry on top to honor all the One Liner Posts.

He was the most likely to have received an extension, over Tucker and Bregman. Still see them trying to lock in Valdez and Tucker, with Bregman walking unless he signs a more team friendly deal. Would be nice for the Sox to have stars for life on the team. All the best White Sox of the past 75 years have not stayed with the White Sox their entire careers, with multiple unnecessary dust-ups between management all time MLB stars. There are only four Top 50 bWAR Career White Sox Hitters and Pitchers in the modern era who played their entire career with the White Sox. They are near the bottom of the Top 50 of their respective lists, with two of the four likely dropping off the list before 2025. 20.2 John Danks 16.2 Tim Anderson (until he signs elsewhere which is likely) 14.6 Ron Karkovice 11.8 Dylan Cease (also likely gone sometime this year)

Offering four management and four players in the current millennium. Jerry is too cheap not to have worn this jersey at some point, if only as another layer of clothing to keep the thermostat low in the winter, assuming he didn't have a minion pawn it on eBay or a pawn shop first. I'm also counting jackets, fleeces and other licensed merchandise. Management Top Four Jerry Bruce Levine looks like a senior citizen trying to stay warm in the Winter in a public library or hanging in a shopping mall McDonalds. Rick Hahn Tony La Russa - Though grateful for any role he played in the twilight of the long knives purge or Ken Hahn last Summer. Daryl Boston Players Mike "Gold Digger" Clevinger Lance "I Like Steak" Lynn David "Tommy Boy" Wells Dallas "I'm Telling My Mommy" Keuchel

Think my thread is much more substantial, incorporating FanGraphs and Vegas odds. It's not hard adding a one sentence thread saying the Sox will suck for the millionth time.

Predictions are as of 2/6. The best 2/5 Over and Under Odds among the five linked are included below. PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ FanGraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings Current Over Under Odds https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/mlb/baseball-win-totals/ While each of the three WAR calculations and projections have merit (Baseball Reference being the third), I've found Baseball Prospectus to be the best of the three in terms of win loss projections based on their system and the fact they spend more time on the playing time allotment for their paid audience. FanGraphs will flesh out their run differential and perhaps a more refined W/L prediction before Spring Training. PECOTA has all six divisions with a prohibitive favorite (over 50% probability), with four of the six over 67%. AL East 57.8% Yankees and 52.4% Saint Louis the two outliers. Half of MLB teams start the season with an under 5% probability of winning the division. Nine teams have a pathetic 0.0% (White Sox, Oakland, Washington and Colorado) through 1.2% probability. Signings of the top remaining free agents (Snell 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Chapman 2.6, Bellinger 2.4, Soler 1.9, Ryu 1.8, Anderson 1.6) will impact additional wins along the margins along with injuries or any remaining significant trades of Cease or others. American League East ( + 60 > .500) ( + 44 > .500) New York Yankees 94-68 .583 57.8% Divsion + 143 RD 89-73 .551 Over 93 -110 Caesars Under 93 1/2 -108 FanDuel Toronto Blue Jays 88-74 .544 16.0% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 86 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 88 -110 Caesars Baltimore Orioles 87-75 .535 12.1% Division + 66 RD 86-76 .529 Over 90 1/2 - 120 DraftKings Under 91 1/2 +105 bet365 Tampa Bay Rays 86-76 .532 12.6% Division + 63 RD 86-76 .532 Over 84 - 110 Caesars Under 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM Boston Red Sox 80-82 .493 1.5% Division + 7 RD 81-81 .502 Over 79 - 110 Caesars Under 80 1/2 -110 DraftKings American League Central ( - 48 < .500) ( - 34 < .500) Minnesota Twins 88-74 .544 67.9% Division + 57 RD 84-78 .521 Over 85 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 86 1/2 +100 DraftKings Cleveland Guardians 83-79 .515 28.8% Division + 16 RD 80-82 .493 Over 76 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 78 -110 Caesars Detroit Tigers 75-87 .460 2.8% Division - 60 RD 79-83 .487 Over 79 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 81 -110 Caesars Kansas City Royals 70-92 .433 0.5% Division - 108 RD 75-87 .466 Over 72 1/2 -115 FanDuel Under 73 1/2 +1- Draft Kings Chicago White Sox 65-97 .404 0.0% Division - 152 RD 68-94 .418 Over 62 1/2 -110 BetMGM Under 63 1/2 -110 FanDuel American League West ( + 2 > .500) ( + 8 > .500) Houston Astros 95-67 .586 75.8% Division + 134 RD 91-71 .560 Over 92 -110 Caesars Under 92 1/2 -105 DraftKings Texas Rangers 86-76 .532 13.8% Division + 52 RD 82-80 .506 Over 89 -110 Caesars Under 89 1/2 -110 BetMGM Seattle Mariners 85-77 .523 10.2% Division + 40 RD 86-76 .533 Over 86 1/2 -105 BetMGM Under 87 -110 Caesars Los Angeles Angels 75-87 .460 0.2% Division - 59 RD 78-84 .484 Over 71 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 71 1/2 +100 bet365 Oakland Athletics 65-97 .400 0.0% Division - 152 RD 71-91 .440 Over 56 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 57 1/2 -110 FanDuel National League East ( + 4 > .500) ( + 10 > .500) Atlanta N. L. Team 101-61 .622 93.3% Division + 184 RD 97-65 .598 Over 100 1/2 -115 DraftKings Under 101 1/2 -105 FanDuel Philadelphia Phillies 84-78 .520 2.5% Division + 81 RD 85-77 .524 Over 89 1/2 -110 Caesars Under 90 1/2 -104 bet365 New York Mets 84-78 .535 3.2% Division + 24 RD 81-81 .500 Over 82 -110 Caesars Under 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings Miami Marlins 80-82 .496 1.0% Division - 8 RD 81-81 .500 Over 77 -110 Caesars Under 78 1/2 +100 bet365 Washington Nationals 58-104 .357 0.0% Division -124 RD 66-96 .405 Over 66 1/2 -105 DraftKing Under 67 -110 Caesars National League Central ( - 18 < .500) ( - 10 < .500) Saint Louis Cardinals 86-76 .528 5 52.4% Division + 32 RD 83-79 .515 Over 84 1/2 -110 DraftKings Under 86 1/2 -110 FanDuel Chicago Cubs 80-82 .495 20.2% Division - 17 RD 81-81 .497 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 +100 DraftKings Milwaukee Brewers 79-83 .486 12.7% Division - 25 RD 80-82 .495 Over 75 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 76 1/2 -115 DraftKings Cincinnati Reds 78-84 .483 12.5% Division - 34 RD 79-83 .486 Over 82 1/2 +100 DraftKings Under 82 1/2 -110 FanDuel Pittsburgh Pirates 73-89 .451 2.2% Division - 85 RD 77-85 .474 Over 73 1/2 -105 DraftKings Under 74 1/2 -110 FanDuel National League West ( + 0 > .500) ( + 2 > .500) Los Angeles Dodgers 101-61 .624 94.6% Division + 194 RD 93-79 .575 Over 103 1/2 -120 DraftKings Under 104 1/2 -110 bet365 Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77 .526 3.4% Division + 43 RD 84-78 .516 Over 83 1/2 -110 FanDuel Under 84 1/2 -110 Caesars San Francisco Giants 81-81 .500 1.2% Division - 3 RD 79-83 .488 Over 81 1/2 +100 Draft Kings Under 82 -110 Caesars San Diego Padres 80-82 .492 0.8% Division - 11 RD 81-81 .500 Over 81 1/2 -105 DrafKings Under 81 1/2 -106 FanDuel Colorado Rockies 58-104 .358 0.0% Division - 221 RD 64-98 .393 Over 59 1/2 -130 bet365 Under 60 1/2 +100 DraftKings Still think the Sox at over 62 1/2 wins give you a decent margin of safety, with the trade of Santos and likely trade of Cease and perhaps others, they may be closer than I'd wish. Based in the PECOTA projections and listed odds, the best bets in terms of a blended current PECOTA and FanGraphs projections are as follows: Best Bets Over 56 1/2 + 100 Oakland A's DraftKings - Looks like the best bet at this juncture, but Fisher is a wild card. Still don't see them dumping beyond July trades. Under 67 -110 Washington Nationals Caesars - Washington is really going to suck ass this season, and the rest of the division is decent plus, so a likely winner, though FanGraphs thinks the total is in line with their current 66 win predication. Likely now, but concerns with ownership dumping further the rest of the year Over 76 1/2 -110 Cleveland Guardians BetMGM - Cleveland's ownership gives me pause they may dump Bieber and other pieces. Think they will continue to add before OD and possibly in July, shrinking the margin of safety Under 90 1/2 -104 Philadelphia Phillies bet365 Under 84 1/2 + 100 Chicago Cubs DraftKings

Not accurate to compare the Bauer, Clevinger situations with Tim. Dozens if not hundreds of players in every professional sport leagues have marital issues / infidelities. Far less have domestic violence accusations with filed criminal complaints. Tim’s on field production was very strong until the injuries and some would say the marital issues of the last season and a half.

Consistent with the soon to be 1/44 (2.27%) probability of a White Sox winning a World Series under Jerry at the end of this season. The Sox would have had over 50% better odds winning a second World Series if the World Series was determined via lottery ball selection instead of on field performance.

She’s one hundred percent on point, except Oakland’s first choice was the Wild Wild West site, not the Tropicana site. That said, Clark County is responsible for this site, which is outside Las Vegas city limits, so she really has no power beyond persuading others. It is the equivalent of Mayor Johnson opining on the Arlington Heights’ Bears stadium beyond the impact in Chicago. In Vegas (or more accurately Clark County), they were initially offered the Rio site on Flamingo west of I-15 which makes the most sense in terms of the maximizing development acreage and lowering traffic congestion. Oakland of course rejected it, just like they have far better arrangements to stay in California. Oakland brought the Wild Wild West site to Carson City, on Tropicana but like the Rio also west of I-15 / the Strip. This would have given them the second highest real estate development acreage. However, it is owned by the anti-union scumbag Station’s Casinos, so the collective unions were able to block that deal in the Nevada assembly. The Tropicana site was given as a CV last minute alternative before the end of the Spring Session after the WWW site was defeated. It took a lot of arm twisting to barely pass this revised bill. It is a very bad parcel for all parties involved. First the Strip is already an absolute cluster F , even before you factor in Formula One which will continue to devastate traffic and the overall Strip experience over the next nine years. Second, this is the worst site for the A’s (even worse than building on the Coliseum land) as there is no wiggle room with the adjacent airport. They have no renderings at this point, because you can’t fit a retractable roof with height and space limitations on the site. And there is little additional room for additional resort development. Ultimately I see the current plan either being changed or rescinded by the assembly, moved to a better location within Vegas, or falling apart due to Fisher’s incompetence and lack of securing $1.1B to build the bad stadium plan. Would say the teachers union (isolated vs. the trade unions who want it) is a longer shot to block it in the courts, or get a referendum on the ballot for voters to block funding in the upcoming 2024 general election.

I believe Mena occupied the same spot or was within one of Avery Weems on BP’s Top 10 WS Prospect Rankings before he was dealt with the headliner Dane Dunning for four months of solid Lance Lynn. I liked at least the thought process in the Seattle trade, didn’t like the age difference or Fletcher player make up in the Arizona trade. All just want consistency and prioritizing improving the 2026/2027 & beyond White Sox as Getz’ first priority, with improving 2024/2025 with (hopefully savvy / salvageable) FA / Waiver low end trade pickups when he can as secondary. Their $130M (could be less when the dust settles) payroll and trade of their closer indicates a team with no inclination to compete this year. Stabilize the team and attendance until the Sox are ready to compete on the field. Continue to improve the FO and player development, the latter ironic in Getz’ case. And no forever position player roster of 13 David Ecksteins, no matter what Jerry and Tony say or demand. It’s just as bad as a roster of 13 Eloys.

PAC Files Suit Against Nevada Challenging A’s Stadium Funding https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/pac-files-suit-against-nevada-challenging-as-stadium-funding.html https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/teacher-union-pac-files-lawsuit-challenging-public-financing-for-oakland-as-stadium

Don’t have Twitter (Nitter is still dead), so don’t know if this is quoting an Mike Axisa tweet (he covers the Yankees and MLB via CBS Sports) or if there is even 1% truth to this, but it would make sense to move Crochet this year if you can get a decent return. Wonder what the Sox could get in a Crochet and or Cease + Crochet deal. The time to stretch out Crochet, if it was ever possible, was in 2021-2022 before he was injured. With three years left of control, if he does he builds up enough arm strength over two years, he has one year left of control before FA, unless he stays in AAA for a season plus. Would think he is more valuable as a trade chip for a team looking for a LH reliever at this stage if they are trying to cash him in.

That’s likely as they had 30 last year. Maldonado has power, had more four more home runs than Grandal over his four years with the White Sox, and 17 more over the past two seasons (30 vs. 13).

We also parked by the school on Princeton which is now the Air Force Academy High School. Stop in McCuddy's and then off to the game. Have a much further walk to the new stadium either west of Halsted or north of 29th. Only paid twice to park at the 42 MLB stadiums i have visited (need new Atlanta, Miami and Texas to complete the current 30 stadiums), or took public transportation: Yankee Stadium 3.0 - Limited street parking, didn't want to deal with vandalized / stolen car having to drive to Connecticut after the night game. Royals Stadium - Arrived near game time after driving from an afternoon game at Busch Stadium, and didn't have time to figure out street parking or walking to / from stadium pre phone internet with their enormous parking lot cut off by I-70. Always parked on near Cullerton & 18th/19th west of the tracks for Soldier Field, Warren for Hawks games after we learned and west of Lincoln Ave for Cubs games. Many games at both Detroit Tigers and both Milwaukee Brewers stadiums as well over the years and everywhere else. Never had an issue anywhere.

Ironic choice of words considering the acquisition.

There are opt outs and a club option which can land the deal anywhere between $148,777,777 and $377,777,777 depending on how long between 7-14 years Witt ultimately stays. $288.7M is guaranteed if Bobby doesn't opt out between seasons 7-9 of the deal, with an additional $89M available if the club exercises their club option after 2034. Salary Breakdown Signing Bonus $7,777,777 2024 $2,000,000 2025 $7,000,000 2026 $13,000,000 2027 $19,000,000 2028 $30,000,000 2029 $35,000,000 2030 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season) 2031 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season) 2032 $35,000,000 (Witt can opt out after this season) 2033 $35,000,000 2034 $35,000,000 2035 $33,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option) 2036 $28,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option) 2037 $28,000,000 (If club exercises 3 year $89M option)

https://www.si.com/mlb/athletics/news/the-biggest-contract-as-owner-john-fisher-has-handed-out Largest All Time Athletics contract: Eric Chavez $66M in 2004 (signed by prior ownership, about $100M inflation adjusted). The White Sox $75M Benintendi deal is dead last in terms of 2024 dollars. Coco Crisp (2010-2016) was the highest paid player by John Fisher at $53.25M, though this was earned over multiple contracts. Billy Butler ($30M) was the largest contract Fisher signed and honored. Yoenis Cespedes ($32M) and Khris Davis ($33.5M) signed larger contracts, but both were traded before the deals expired, and Khris’ contract was reduced by about 1/3 or $10.5M due to the 102 game owner lockout in 2020.

I thought 70ish wins was likely until the Santos trade. Can see them possibly trading Cease before OD after Snell and Montgomery are signed if there are any teams still trying to improve, including a contender SP suffering a major injury. Its fine, because W/L isn’t the priority or measuring stick for success in 2024 or 2025. Getz and the FO need to focus on: Continued growth by Sox prospects Improved player development A solid draft and remaining international signings Prospect return for Cease Improvement by Vaughn, Sosa, Colas and the young off-season acquisitions.

I’m assuming the team let Crochet say what he wanted about wanting to stretch out this season and did not contradict him, at least publicly. Was hard to envision him ever building up enough arm strength and remain healthy beyond 50-60 innings. If the Sox initially planned to stretch Crochet out but abruptly changed course after these two trades, then this would be as bad or possibly worse than the previous clown show and what they did with Kopech in the bullpen likely forced by Tony. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for now, in light of Crochet’s limited workload throughout his collegiate and professional career and slim chance he could ever have sustained success as an MLB starter. 2018 63 2/3 IP (Age 19) 2019 65 IP (20) 2020 9 1/3 IP (21) 2021 54 1/3 IP (22) 2022 0 IP (23) 2023 25 IP (24) Average 36 1/3 IP

They tore down all the housing projects. I took the Green Line to Comiskey as a kid in the 1970s and 1980s. It was OK then, better now. There is plenty of room for parking lots across the Dan Ryan south of 35th / IIT. Build a lit fan walkway to / from the stadium across the DR beyond the existing 35th street sidewalk with the thousands of more fans using on game days. There would be police, Sox parking lot security and traffic aids across the DR as there are now where parking exists. Also could have / can build parking structures like the Yankees and other teams and downtown has. Doesn’t have to be acres of inefficient flat land. Would work if the team stayed, Jerry / New Owner purchased the current stadium and surrounding land / parking lots currently owned by the ISFA from the state, plus new unoccupied lane east of the DR, built significant retail and business development. State extinguishes current debt, Sox get infrastructure handouts and stadium plus land for much less than a private purchase, win win for everyone. The Sox would own it all / profit from the stadium and substantial real estate development. All the transportation infrastructure is already in place, the land is ready without significant environmental remediation. They would have more land (70 acres vs. 62 or less on the 78 parcel) plus whatever additional land they acquire east of the DR or west adjacent to the current property. Could build a Bears Stadium on 78, or something else once you stabilize downtown in terms of replacing the collapsed demand for office space with conversions to residential over the next decade or two. More important to focus on restoring safety downtown at this point to facilitate long term viability then fret over accommodating 81 game days for a private business.

Illinois Institute of Technology Home to 7,000 students, and over a thousand employees, 3 Nobel Prize Laureates. Located east of Comiskey Park II.

Lance Lynn has had one good year in his thirties, was given $97M over seven years including $10M this offseason despite the fact he has three playoff seasons over the same period with double digit ERAs. Even mediocre pitching is valuable, much more so than 4th - 5th OF types you can pick up each and every season at or slightly above the ML minimum. If he was 22-23 and possibly project into a viable everyday starter, I would have honestly still preferred Mena, but wouldn't have longer term concerns in terms of Getz' strategy. This deal might work out net net, but the upside clearly is with Arizona. Best case scenario he performs well as a platoon RF and he can be flipped this or next year for a decent prospect or two, which is what they had with Mena with the potential to be a cost controlled #3 - #5 starter profile for a contending team in 2026/2027.

And the first two and likely third season will all be losing White Sox baseball teams. In 2021, I cared about replacing Adam Eaton and Jake Lamb and Brian Goodwin and Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets in RF because wins and losses actually mattered in a contention season. Wins and losses are not the priority in 2024. When you have a contending team, sacrificing youth for veterans for final pieces can be justified. For the 2024 White Sox, long term needs are primary, short term production secondary. Spending money on short term FA doesn't impact future White Sox baseball, but dumping young prospects is harmful. Just play a guy who can adequately or better cover RF. If Colas isn't ready, it is not a huge difference whether it's Pillar or Phillips or DeLoach or even Whit Merrifield or Eloy or Billy Hamilton. Don't even care if it's Fletcher if he was a waiver claim or FA signing. Counting wildly inflated PCL stats as power is a stretch. He would be lucky to hit double digit home runs in a season even in HR friendly ballparks like Arizona or the Sox. Several comparisons in this thread to Adam Eaton are ridiculous. Eaton was an established ML hitter with a 5.2 bWAR season under his belt and over 200 MLB games played before entering his age 26 and 27 seasons. This guy was Arizona's sixth best outfielder at best, has 102 career plate appearances. If they thought anything of him, if they thought his .791 OPS and .377 BABIP was sustainable he would have continued playing last season. Neither are, and he will have trouble contributing once ML pitchers actually focus on his weaknesses vs. prioritizing other hitters in the lineup. It's the same as pitchers handing Grandal 87 walks in 2021 6 hole, to focus on getting Leury, Lamb, Mendick, Madrigal and the other poor bottom third hitters in the White Sox lineup. Grandal had 6 less walks the next two seasons combined despite having more plate appearances in both years. He put up empty walk stats not because he was some reincarnation of Barry Bonds, but rather because there was no risk in walking him to clog up the bases with three below MLB quality hitters behind him on a regular basis. If I managed against Luis Robert this season, he'd lead the league in walks. Take your chances with the next guy, be it Yoan or Eloy or anyone else. Since 2/3 of baseball aren't contending, that won't happen, but in a meaningful game it would be done on a regular basis.

$20M is in reference to Getz’ collective off-season FA signings (could be slightly more or less, just approximating plus Pillar won’t be known until OD). I posted the 1937 star because this isn’t segregation era baseball, and you can’t sacrifice power at both OF corners and expect to have a winning team. Losing Mena for similarly aged or younger prospects, even this guy, wouldn’t concern me. The lack of logic or big picture thinking concerns me.

The Sox don’t have a surplus of anything beyond Brooks Boyer’s 50 ticket agents, and 79 year old hall of fame person consultants. The struggle is we suffered a decade with Hahn’s poor roster construction, and this seems like old times. You’re going the wrong direction trading a solid 21 year old prospect for a 27 year old this September, who even if he is good will be in his 30s before the team is in contention. And he is a poor man’s Benintendi you are are already stuck with for four more years. People here are more worried about Jerry dying with $20M more in his pocket by Getz spending on one year FA signings than they are giving up prospects for guys who best case scenario will be on the decline by the time the Sox ever have built a competitive core. I’ve supported most of what Getz has done, but this and Maldonado are redundant with other existing players and a step in the wrong direction. You don’t need five DHs on the roster and you don’t need five no power fungible starters either, especially in a year that doesn’t matter based on your spending cuts and existing roster.

I thought it was reported back when this all came out that Jimmy Rollins was the one responsible for going over both Ventura and Hahn straight to Kenny to b**** about Drake La Roche. Didn’t see Rollins or anyone else implicated in the Athletic article, but perhaps this was merely speculation since he was new in camp.