South Side Hit Men

Good, if you can’t get a proper package now, then wait. There is no need to rush a mediocre or poor deal. I’m hoping Bannister and Katz work on some tweaks with Cease and he regains his dominant stuff from 2022. He will be worth even more in July after the 4-6 teams who give a s%*# about competing suffer are limited in quality additions and may have even more injuries. Even Hahn got decent hauls for Giolito/Robert and horseshit Lynn + Kelly. If Jerry is desperate to dump max salary and Getz has to accept a deal that isn’t ideal/peak before March, than f*** this s%*# because the payroll is over 1/3 reduced and barely above the amount the White Sox receive for National TV and MLB.com. Comiskey should burn to the ground in that scenario, not because they didn’t rush a poor deal now.

Benintendi is the only one that was an unforced error. People complain about Eloy and Yoan, but they are on the tail end of team friendly deals. The problem is the Sox wasted those savings years on a bunch of old shitty overpriced guys. Robert Jr. is a massive underpay at $12.5M compared to his market value. The Sox should have focused on keeping nearly all of their cost controlled players and added around the margins, but they instead dumped several for end of line players like Steak Dinner and Kimbrel and failed miserably.

Still think this team for under $130M can play a respectable season, have some assets at the deadline that could yield well with a longer term goal to field a solid core by 2026. Opening Day 26/40 Man Roster Projected 2024 OPS / FIP & fWAR $121.4M Total Payroll before possible bullpen / bench / starter upgrades Starting Lineup (9) $80.8M LF A. Benintendi .731 (L) 1.3 $17.1M CF L. Robert .807 (R) 3.4 $12.5M DH E. Jimenez .821 (R) 1.7 $13.8M 3B Y. Moncada .732 (S) 2.2 $24.8M 1B A. Vaughn .778 (R) 1.8 $3.5M RF K. Lewis .724 (R) 0.3 $2.5M C M. Stassi .637 (R) 0.6 $0.8M 2B N. Lopez .645 (L) 0.6 $4.0M SS P. DeJong .651 (R) 0.4 $1.8M Bench (4) $3.8M C K. Lee .615 (R) -0.1; INF L Sosa .698 (R) 0.2; INF/OF Z. Remillard .621 (R) 0.0; OF J. Davis .685 (R) 0.1 Minor League Depth (7) C C. Perez; 1B G. Sheets; INF R. Gonzalez; INF J. Rodriguez; 3B B. Ramos; SS C. Montgomery; OF A. Colas Rotation (6) $31.0M D. Cease 4.27 (R) 2.7 $8.7M M. Soroka 4.57 (R) 1.3 $3.2M A. Wood 4.47 (L) 1.0 $7.0M M. Kopech 5.32 (R) 0.6 $3.1M E. Fedde 5.33 (R) 0.6 $7.5M T. Toussaint 5.02 (R) 0.7 $1.5M Minor League Depth (2) J. Eder (L); J. Scholtens (R) Bullpen $5.8M (7) - Could replace a few with low cost pickups before Spring Training G. Crochet 4.02 (L) 0.7 $1.0M G. Santos 4.01 (R) 0.7 $0.8M M. Foster 4.92 (R) 0.0 $0.8M T. Banks 4.35 (L) 0.2 $0.8M D. Garcia 5.39 (R) -0.4 $0.8M J. Lambert 5.11 (R) -0.1 $0.8M L. Patino 5.27 (R) -0.2 $0.8M Minor League Depth: D. Cronin (R); S. Drohan (L); D. Martin (R); C. Mena (R); J. Shuster (L); A. Speas (R)

Oakland and Colorado are the only two teams with current higher odds to win the World Series. Based on the odds, the National League Central appears to be the widest division in terms of four teams relatively close to win it. Besides prohibitive favorite Los Angeles, the Yankees have the widest gap vs. the second highest division opponent. The race for 2nd place in the NL West appears to be the closest at this time. Fan Duel 2024 World Series Championship Odds A. L. East 8.5/1 New York; 15/1 Baltimore; 16/1 Toronto; 31/1 Tampa Bay; 35/1 Boston A. L. Central 22/1 Minnesota; 55/1 Cleveland; 60/1 Detroit; 110/1 Kansas City; 170/1 White Sox A. L. West 9/1 Houston; 10/1 Texas; 18/1 Seattle; 100/1 Los Angeles; 250/1 Oakland N. L. East 6.5/1 Atlanta; 10/1 Philadelphia; 25/1 New York; 65/1 Miami; 170/1 Washington N. L. Central 30/1 Saint Louis; 38/1 Chicago; 45/1 Milwaukee; 50/1 Cincinnati; 100/1 Pittsburgh N. L. West 4.6/1 Los Angeles; 35/1 Arizona; 38/1 San Diego; 40/1 San Francisco; 250/1 Colorado

The Padres sent $1,5M to Atlanta as part of the deal. Atlanta is looking to flip Matt Carpenter. Honestly would rather have Sheets stay at DH since that would keep him out of RF then acquire Carpenter and playing both until a RF emerges. Matt Carpenter is 38, hit the same number of HRs as Andrew Benintendi last season over 76 games and a .176 batting average. Not sure how any team would want him beyond being included in a package that he ends up just getting DFA'd.

What's silly is dozens of pages of Orioles trade predictions for Cease, where there is little if any stomach for the Orioles to engage in that kind of financial commitment. Also don't see the Orioles with the pitching the Sox will want / need in return. I believe there is a far great chance Cease is not traded at all than he goes to Baltimore. Atlanta, the Dodgers, Rangers and Yankees are the four teams he will likely go to. Wherever he goes, the Sox need to maximize their return, and not pull a Hahn taking the first offer possible so he can leave for three weeks of vacation in Michigan.

Jerry would give his left nut to have signed Carpenter instead of Benintendi last offseason. $64M in total contract savings. Many would take that offer assuming anesthesia part of the deal. Hahn and Kenny with stealth satisfaction each giving Jerry one last middle finger (Kenny via Burger trade preventing an Hahn Anderson trade).

Matt Carpenter owed $5.5M in 2024, Ray Kerr at the MLB minimum. SD is sending undisclosed cash as well per MLB Trade Rumors. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/braves-acquire-matt-carpenter-ray-kerr-from-padres.html Minor Leaguer Drew Carpenter is headed back to the Padres.

There is a new park with $2 billion in real estate development slated for 2028, the first season Witt is eligible for FA, so timing wise it works for the Royals.

12/15/23 Cot’s Contracts AL Central Standings: $119M Minnesota $118M Chicago $92M Detroit $92M Cleveland $88M Kansas City Chicago goes down to $96M if they dump both Cease and Eloy. All five receive MLB common revenues (National TV and MLB.com = $103M in 2023). I believe Detroit and the Sox are the only two in this group which do not also receive tens of millions in revenue sharing, though I don’t believe either Chicago or Detroit pays in a significant amount into the revenue sharing fund.

Is the June/July return timeline feasible / realistic? Can he return 100%, or is there an adjustment period to regain full comfort and strength?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/max-scherzer-back-surgery-rangers-june-july.html Unlike DeGrom who might return late or not at all, Scherzer is slated to return in June or July. Would count Texas, the Dodgers, Atlanta and the Yankees as the four favorites to acquire Cease if he is indeed traded this offseason.

Jerry explained the amount of payroll to be cut, and Getz hit the ground running. Would a qualified external person accept the job, knowing the Sox would likely tank throughout most or all of the entire length of their contract? Still an upgrade for Jerry over Hahn, who wasted $60M during the 2017-2019 tanking seasons.

Dodgers and Mets do a lot of these signings. Neither have won a full season World Series since the Reagan administration.

Flaherty was acquired with $1.8M left on his deal, and I'm sure the Angelos family was taking rolls of Tums stressing over the finances to cover that enormous outlay. They only had $320M in revenue to cover their $61M payroll after that move. No way are they going to stomach adding $20M + over the next two seasons to cover Cease's final two arbitration awards. The Sox would have to send them $10M-$15M, $4M in International Slot Money (plus the actual money) and Cease for perhaps a redundant prospect or two per Angelos' way of doing business. Why pay players seven or eight figures when the ML minimum is $800,000. The Mets are only covering $8M of McCann's $12.2M salary in 2024, compared to $11M last season. The Orioles are now at $73M after the Kimbrel signing, or $13M more than their highest payroll in the 2020s. Their current focus in maximizing theft of taxpayer resources in the Maryland state assembly, not acquiring high cost players like Dylan Cease.

This guy was Baltimore’s all in move at the trade deadline.

All players are free agents from Go. Domestic and international players will be recruited in the same manner. Age of consent would be the one issue, so would go with 18 as the earliest a player can sign with any team. In addition to pulling the anti-trust exemption, also need to pull tax free stadium bond interest for any new stadiums. Let all teams pay for their capital costs like all other businesses.

In 2023, Jerry and Boyer handed Detroit their broadcaster. In 2020, Jerry handed Detroit their superior managerial candidate. Since the creation of the A. L. Central, Jerry and his inept organization handed the four small market teams 25 of 29 available division titles. @BamaDocand I were the only two who predicted an $120M-$139,9M Payroll during the open poll period (before FA / offseason started in earnest). If he goes below the $103M he gets from MLB each year simply for existing, I want maximum pain, embarrassment and ruin for Jerry Reinsdorf, the Sox, the Bulls, and anything else he is involved with.

No, what I have advocated for decades is a removal of anti-trust, truly independent leagues as I laid out above, and the horseshit owners like Reinsdorf and a dozen others forced to sell, compete or be relegated. All television should be split similar to the NFL. Gate should be split 50/50 for the two participating teams. A portion of revenue for both would be set aside as transfer payments to the AAA, AA, A and Semi-Pro Leagues.

The way it would work is to end the anti-trust exemption and phase out direct team ownership of minor league teams. All teams would be independent. No more bullshit like John Henry owning the rights the Red Sox and Pittsburgh broadcast networks, or Angelos owning the Orioles and National broadcasts. Any group or individual can purchase or create a team. Financial benchmarks similar to The Football Association. There would be a East / West breakout similar to the English North / South divisions for lower tier leagues. All players are free agents. Teams can have a "youth squad" just like FA teams. Baseball Premier League (MLB) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents). World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13). Relegation Bottom two teams in each league. Baseball Championship League (AAA) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents) World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13) - Winner picks which of the two Premier Leagues they want to be promoted to. Promotion / Relegation Top / Bottom two teams in each league. Baseball League One (AA) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents) World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13). Winner picks which of the two Championship Leagues they want to be promoted. Promotion / Relegation Top / Bottom two teams in each league. Baseball League Two (A) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents) World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13). Winner picks which of the two Championship Leagues they want to be promoted. Promotion / Relegation Top / Bottom two teams in each league. Baseball National League (New) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents) World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13). Winner picks which of the two Championship Leagues they want to be promoted. Promotion / Relegation Top / Bottom two teams in each league. Baseball Semi-Professional League (New) (28 Teams - Two 14 Teams Tables / Leagues). Season = 156 Game Season (Round Robin 12 Games vs. 13 League Opponents) World Series Best of Nine (October 1-2, 4-5, 7-8, 10-11, 13). Winner picks which of the two Championship Leagues they want to be promoted. Promotion Top two teams in each league.

71 World Series Wins Pre Free Agency (1903-1974) 21 All other teams 30% 20 Yankees (23, 27, 28, 32, 36, 37, 38, 39, 41, 43, 47, 49, 50, 51. 52, 53, 56, 58, 61, 62) 8 Cardinals (26, 31, 34, 42, 44, 46, 64, 67) 8 Athletics (10, 11, 13, 29, 30, 72, 73, 74) 5 Red Sox (03, 12, 15, 16, 18) 5 Giants (05, 21, 22, 33, 54) 4 Dodgers (55, 59, 63, 65) 48 World Series Wins Post Free Agency (1975-2023) 27 All Other Teams 56% 7 Yankees (77, 78, 96, 98, 99, 00, 09) 3 Cardinals (82, 06, 11) 1 Athletics (89) 4 Red Sox (04, 07, 13, 18) 3 Giants (10, 12, 14) 3 Dodgers (81, 88, 20)

Preller has done tons of stupid s%*# with many zeros on the end. Sure, give the Sox $60M - $70M and take him for a few flier prospects. The Sox are already stuck with Benintendi’s backloaded contract, and look to be shopping at Ross Dress for Less the next couple of years.

I hope they keep Cease to open the season unless they are blown away by an offer. There should be no desperation to sell unless the price is right. This doesn’t seem to be a good offseason to sell a SP with a dozen or so pitchers still available in FA that teams don’t need to lose prospects to acquire. What hurts more is the death of the Padres owner which ends their spending ways, and the Mets scaling back as well, limiting aggressive teams to just a few. I’ve always thought there was a close to zero chance the Orioles would want Cease because their cheap ass owner would be concerned with paying $20M plus over the next two years, let alone giving up any prospects for him. They added dick at the trade deadline despite record profits last year and a solid fan attendance. Just a disgraceful franchise, worse than the Sox IMO.

He’ll be 30 and shifted primarily to 1B last season. Sounds like that would be a future albatross unless the Padres eat most / all but the MLB minimum of the $80M remaining.