South Side Hit Men

Make that three, as Jeff Passan reports the Brewers and Brett Anderson have reached a $2.5M deal, plus up to $1M in incentives. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/brewers-brett-anderson-discussing-deal.html In addition to the three SPs noted above, Jackie Bradley Jr. (1.1), seeking a multi-year deal, is the only other available free agent with a 2021 projected 1+ fWAR Final note, former White Sox Matt Davidson signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers. I wish him luck. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/dodgers-matt-davidson-agree-to-minor-league-deal.html

There have been at least two grievances filed within the past three years (2018 against TB, OAK, Pit & Miami, 2020 limited to the Pirates) against owners for failing to spend their revenue sharing money in compliance with the collective bargaining agreement. The players at minimum want teams to spend league revenue sharing funds on player salaries. Haven't heard any results of said grievances, but the continued race among the usual suspects toward a $15.6M payroll (26 X $0.6M) requires players to ensure the next CBA includes enforceable provisions that revenues shared "to ensure competitive balance" are in fact used to ensure competitive balance.

Poor Timo Perez is Oriental Avenue.

It’s 100 years overdue for both Congress and the Supreme Court, representing a “free” and “capitalistic” society, to end MLB’s farcical anti-trust exemption. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/64094/with-antitrust-exemption-mlbs-power-grabs-difficult-to-challenge/

Didn't see this posted, Twins signed Matt Shoemaker for $2M (projected fWAR 1.5, among top dozen available FA SPs this off-season). https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/twins-to-sign-matt-shoemaker.html Four projected +1.0 fWAR free agents remain available: Odorizzi (1.7), Porcello (1.6), T. Walker (1.2) and B. Anderson (1.1). Another Savvy Twins deal in terms of $s and projected fWAR., https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&nteam=MIN A. Simmons (3.1/$10.5M); N. Cruz (1.6/$13M); M. Shoemaker (1.5/$2M); A. Colome (0.1/$6.25M) and H.Robles (0.1/ $2.0M).

Thanks for posting. Half the games are free (whitesox.com or ESPN) so I'm a happy camper. Will likely be in Green Bay for the opener, hope 620-AM Milwaukee is covering it. The only upsetting part is DST doesn't start until March 14th, wish we could keep DST permanent like most people prefer.

My OD Lineup: SP Giolito 1. Anderson SS, 2. Moncada* 3B, 3. Abreu 1B, 4. Jimenez LF, 5, Robert CF, 6. Grandal* C, 7. Engel RF, 8. Vaughn DH, 9. Madrigal 2B Crony La Russa's OD Lineup: SP Lynn 1. Madrigal 2B, 2. Eaton^ RF, 3. Abreu DH ,4. Jimenez LF, 5. Grandal* 1B, 6. Anderson SS, 7. Moncada* 3B, 8. LuCroy C, 9. Robert CF,

Thanks for posting, but I thought Narron was brought in to develop young catchers, not pass them over to bring in yet another relic Tony can remember from a decade plus earlier when he last managed.

Yes, teams should be “punished” for signing the best players, and rewarded for signing the worst / cheapest players. This logic explains the fervent defending of those who delivered decades of White Sox mismanagement and failure both on and off the field. Remaining hopeful regime change occurs this decade.

Analysis of data separates the haves from the have nots. It’s why teams like Tampa and Oakland continue to outperform their payroll, and teams like the Dodgers target 100 + wins after Andrew Friedman’s hire.

Child, please. The Sox external free agent acquisitions have been garbage throughout Hahn’s entire tenure. Overpriced and underperforming, with his fanbois continuously posting how much they feel sorry for him. Smart teams with competent front offices like Tampa own the Sox with half the payroll. They’re not wasting money two managers, overpaying for clubhouse cancers, signing lengthy contracts for declining players no other team would even consider. They’re signing quality players at good rates with plenty of upside.

My comment was more related to Rich Hill at $2.5M. Send him through the lineup twice, hand things over to Crochet for his 2-3 innings of work for a nice contrast, could be the best "fifth starter" combo in MLB. Would also be an asset with the younger pitchers. Much rather have Hill & Dunning than paying top dollar for a year of Lynn. If only Hill had a TLDR connection. Sighs.

Fangraphs projected Arrieta at $9M and a 2021 fWAR of 0.9. Rich Hill (Projected 1.0 fWAR and $8M) signed by Tampa in a steal at $2.5M. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/rays-rich-hill-progressing-toward-deal.html Rather win in October than "win" in December.

Came across this 2017 article you may find interesting, regarding Collins' relationship with Grandal which started several years ago. Collins will have to come out strong this Spring in likely his final chance to prove he can be at minimum an adequate backup at the ML level. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/chicago-white-sox/zack-collins-has-been-training-yasmani-grandal-high-school-and-its-paying-white-sox-prospect

Maloney Adam: Dear Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Rick Hahn, don't even know a word yet, just a little infant, so cuddly, but still omnipotent. Chip: He was a man! Maloney Adam: I like the baby version the best! Jerry Reinsdorf: I own the White Sox and I get the money!

2021: Colin McHugh close on 1 year Major League deal with Tampa Bay. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/rays-collin-mchugh-close-to-deal.html Mets talks with Cubs on for Bryant, JD Davis and a countering salary dump of Familia a possibility. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/kris-bryant-trade-rumors-mets-cubs.html 2022: Closer Ken Giles signs with Seattle, set to return after TJS in 2022. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/mariners-to-sign-ken-giles.html

I wouldn't give go-kart keys to LaRussa. Hoping Katz, learning from McCann last year, the addition of Narron and a commitment to working will result in Grandal significantly improving his game calling this season.

Attached is a chart from BP showing overall over/under projections over a 16 year span. Arizona and Saint Louis were the biggest outliers, with Arizona averaging a projected 4 wins higher than actual, and Saint Louis with 5 actual wins higher than PECOTA projections. The White Sox averaged 1 actual win more than the projection over this period. I believe the PECOTA projections for several of the White Sox players will improve substantially starting in 2022, if their development progresses as expected this season. That said, as I stated earlier in the thread, the lack of prior past performance and full season for the core young players accounts for the conservative projections in 2021. I also think the overconfidence shown by fans using the "eyeball" test is do to last seasons over performance versus expected results due to the absolutely horseshit schedule the White Sox played. There is a reason seven Central teams made the playoffs feasting on the horrid 3 bottom feeders, and all seven were dismissed in quick order.

Interesting article and analysis, thanks for posting! Dallas Keuchel also among the pitchers with the highest expected WAR drop off (4.9 vs. 2.5). Really hoping the Sox won't have to eat $20M with this guy in 2023, they really could use the money for extensions or an upgrade. The good news is the Twins also have a few expected regressions (Maeda and Cruz). On the flippity flip, Nick Madrigal on the list for hitters with the biggest expected WAR increase (0.3 to 2.3). Wish the Sox landed Joc Pederson, also on this list (0.0 to 2.1). Perhaps Jed's trade of Yu Darvish (THE highest expecting pitching drop off from 8.1 to 3.8) was smart in retrospect.

So many ignorant takes here today, feels like a game thread.

Oh say can you see By the dawn’s early light What so proudly we hailed STOP!!! I’m sorry ladies and gentlemen, there’s no reason to be doing this song here. Radio, Radio..... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eD_24nDzkeo

There always should have been four divisions, playoffs a best of seven League Championship Series and the best of seven World Series, the lone inter-league games each season. 160 game schedule, 16 Division Games (112), 6 Against Opposite Division (48) AL East: Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Charlotte, New York, Tampa Bay, Toronto. (8 EDT) AL West: Chicago, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Texas. (5 CDT 3 PDT) NL East: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Miami, Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington. (8 EDT) NL West: Arizona, Chicago, Colorado, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Saint Louis. (3 CDT, 1 MDT, 4 PDT) Unfortunately, they will likely go with eight four team divisions, likely have a 20 + team playof, because greed and avarice. They may as well shift a few of the non league charter expansion teams to make more sense. I'd have a playoff of division winners, an 18 game Division (54) and 9 games against the other 12 league teams (108) AL East: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Toronto. AL Central: Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota. AL South: Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay. Texas. AL West: Colorado, Los Angeles, Oakland, Seattle. NL East: Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. NL Central: Chicago, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Saint Louis. NL South: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Washington. NL West: Arizona, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco.

The Cards and Cubs are unique based on their close proximity and the large swath of fans in the demarcation zone (Peoria / Bloomington Normal a no man's zone containing mixed allegiances, the Cards (South) and Cubs (North) for most of the rest of the state. For Sox fans during their finest stretch of solid teams (1950s-mid 1960s), the Yankees were the hated team for Sox fans, primarily for consistently finishing with a few wins more every year but 1959. The Sox sucked after that, and the few fans left were primarily concerned with not moving to Milwaukee, Denver or Tampa Bay. Many fans are currently sadly fixated on the Cubs, but the Sox have developed good rivalries with Minnesota over the past few decades, with Cleveland a worthy rival in terms of competitiveness, and then the cheap shot Old School bullshit slung by the pathetic Royals. It made perfect sense for Milwaukee to transfer. They were initially an NL city, and they share a similar fan mix of Cubs/Brewers fans along the Wisconsin border. There was typically a small uptick for Brewers White Sox at either park, but the Cubs / Brewers typically sell out with ticket prices raised specifically in Milwaukee. Plus they get to keep the Twins as their Interleague rival.

I created this thread last week, when PECOTA projections were player only, without the Team Depth Chart Standings available. My initial thoughts of the current 83-79 heading into this season: I do believe PECOTA projections (based on 50 percentile for individual and team projections) will experience a greater deviation to the mean 50% projection than previous seasons, due in large part to the first time nature of the tool's first (and hopefully last) time accommodating the 2020 60 game schedule debacle. I recall the Cubs (Theo in particular) and their fans going apeshit regarding the 2017 projections of a 91 win season as being far too low (they finished 92-70) after the World Series. Preseason projected wins are not certain by any means, but more often than not when the Vegas line and PECOTA deviate by 5 +/- wins, it typically indicates the betting public is over or undervaluing teams, and baring significant acquisitions or key injuries, it typically is wise to take the overlay and go against the public for value and profit. I do agree with most here the Sox will likely outperform their current 83 win projection, but would take the under in their winning percentage future odds of 90.5 wins (162 game season)/.559 winning percentage). There is a chance the White Sox can top Rick Renteria's great 2020 .583 winning percentage (aided by the imbalanced schedule) between 2022-2024. The lack of depth and also the fact several of their young core hitters (Eloy, Robert and Madrigal) and pitchers (Cease, Kopech and Crochet) will be attempting to play a 162 game season for the first time, with likely growing pains that will come along the way.

That is an extremely poor allocation of resources / signing if Grandal finishes the final 2-3 seasons catching less than 100 games. Grandal loses substantial value in terms of $s snd fWAR as 1B/DH, not to mention the fact the Sox already have far too many DH/1B in their system (Abreu, Vaughn, Jimenez plus the additional minor leaguers incapable of fielding). If games caught expectations for Grandal are 32 (2020), 80-100 (2021) under 80 (2022-2023), then the signing is a much bigger mistake than I assessed at the time (high AAV, length and age, assuming he could catch 100-120 games/year). If Collins is capable of catching 60 games per year and possibly DHing a few, that is the likely extent of his abilities given he is 26 and hasn’t done anything the previous two years to indicate he is capable to serve in a reserve role.