South Side Hit Men

https://chicago.suntimes.com/white-sox/2023/12/14/24000128/tonys-place-healthier-larussa-back-wants-state-where-he-fits-with-white-sox-reinsdorf-grifol-getz On his role in 2024, including being at Spring Training nearly every day. La Russa also denies being involved in the Front Office Purge and is pissed off at AJ. Continued losing impacts Jerry’s health.

Anderson, Rodon and Bummer are the only players drafted by Hahn with a White Sox career bWAR above 2.0 during their salary controlled six year window.

I think there may be lower tier FAs with a shot if the Sox can get a good deal within whatever budget they have. SS - I'd still take Tim on a one year prove it deal for the $8M listed. RF - Joey Gallo might be had at a bargain, perhaps an invite for Kyle Lewis to see if anything sparks there. SP - Montas, German, Junis and Wood could be worth signing in terms of possible budget fits, depending on Brian Bannister's thoughts. RP - Hope they can find a few pitchers worth a chance on similar to the Santos and Middleton pick ups last offseason.

Will revisit in January, but just noting the initial offseason progress after the first month of free agency. Tracking only Major League signings. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker $478M Los Angeles N. L. (S. Ohtani $461M (10); J. Heyward $9M; J. Kelly $8M) $172M Philadelphia (A. Nola $172M (7)) $113M San Francisco (J. H. Lee $113M (6)) $99M Saint Louis (S. Gray $75M (3), K. Gibson $13M, L. Lynn $11M) $91M Cincinnati (J. Candelario $45M (3), N. Martinez $26M (2), E. Pagan $16M (2), L. Maile $4M) $80M Arizona (E. Rodriguez $80M (4)) $70M Atlanta (R. Lopez $30M (3), J. Jimenez $26M (3), P. Johnson $14M (2)) $60M Kansas City (S. Lugo $45M (3), C. Stratton $8M (2), W. Smith $5M, G. Hampson $2M) $29M Detroit (K. Maeda $24M (2), A. Chafin $5M) $18M New York N. L. (L. Severino $13M, J. Wendle $2M, J. Lopez $2M, M. Tonkin $1M) $17M Chicago A. L. (E. Fedde $15M (2), P. DeJong $2M) $16M Milwaukee (W. Miley $9M, C. Rae $5M, J. Ross $2M) $13M Colorado (C. Blackmon $13M) $13M Baltimore (C. Kimbrel $13M) $12M Houston (V. Caratini $12M (2)) $7M Los Angeles A. L. (L. Garcia $4M, A. Cimber $2M, A. Kolarek $1M) $5M Texas (K. Yates $5M) $4M Washington (D. Floro $2M, N. Senzel $2M) $4M Cleveland (A. Hedges $4M) $3M Pittsburgh (R. Tellez $3M) $1M Tampa Bay (C. Devenski $1M) $0M Nine Teams: Boston, Chicago N. L., Miami, Minnesota, New York A. L., Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, Toronto Projected 2024 1.0 + fWAR (RP 0.4 +) Free Agents Remaining Crowd Source Projected Contracts - If provided Catcher 1.8 Mitch Garver $20M (2) 1.1 Gary Sanchez $5M First Baseman 2.0 Rhys Hoskins $14M Second Baseman 1.1 Adam Frazier $6M Third Baseman 2.6 Matt Chapman $80M (4) 1.1 Gio Urshela Shortstop 2.3 Amed Rosario $18M (2) 1.6 Tim Anderson $8M Left Fielder 1.4 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $36M (3) 1.0 Tommy Pham $8M Centerfield 2.4 Cody Bellinger $144M (6) 1.6 Harrison Bader $18M (2) 1.1 Kevin Kiermaier $20M (2) 1.0 Michael A. Taylor $14M (2) Right Field 1.4 Teoscar Hernandez $45M (3) Designated Hitter 1.9 Jorge Soler $48M (3) 1.5 Joc Pederson $24M (2) 1.3 Michael Brantley $9M Starting Pitchers 3.3 Blake Snell $125M (5) 3.2 Jordan Montgomery $105M (5) 3.1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2.6 Shota Imanaga 2.6 Marcus Stroman $66M (3) 2.3 Lucas Giolito $30M (2) 2.3 James Paxton $8M 2.0 Sean Manaea $24M (2) 1.9 Frankie Montas $8M 1.8 Hyun Jin Ryu $10M 1.8 Clayton Kershaw $21M 1.6 Michael Wacha $39M (3) 1.5 Jack Flaherty $20M (2) 1.4 Mike Clevinger $24M (2) 1.2 Michael Lorenzen $20M (2) 1.2 Domingo German 1.1 Zach Greinke $7M 1.1 Carlos Carrasco 1.1 Jacob Junis 1.0 Martin Perez $8M 1.0 Alex Wood $7M Relief Pitchers 1.0 Aroldris Chapman $8M 0.9 Josh Hader $72M (4) 0.7 Jordan Hicks $27M (3) 0.6 Yuki Matsui 0.6 Robert Stephenson $10M (2) 0.5 Ryan Brasier 0.4 David Robertson $8M 0.4 Hector Neris $16M (2) Note: Bauer (1.9) and Urias (2.3) excluded from the above list.

It's still too early to tell their 2024 outlook. If they keep Cease and Eloy, and add an acceptable RFer (acceptable defender, .720 OPS) and perhaps a starter or two and some relievers, they very well could be nearing .500 next year. Not a great goal, but we would get baseball much more enjoyable to follow / listen to / watch. If the rest of their offseason is dumping anyone else with value for prospects and picking up reclamation projects and scraps as they have the past four weeks, then yes I am with you. In that scenario, they likely will finish in the 60 win range, with nothing this offseason significant beyond whatever prospects are acquired.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/mets-sign-trayce-thompson-to-minor-league-deal.html Hope he is able to improve at the plate and hang on as a 5th OFer in New York or elsewhere.

Worked out how? Like Grandal, Lynn and others, he had a few good months for the White Sox over multiple seasons, though thankfully without the expensive price tag. Rick Hahn (2013-2023) draft picks (White Sox bWAR > 1) MLB Year 1-6 Seasons: First Round 16.9 Tim Anderson (2016-2021) 6.1 Carlos Rodon (2015-2020) 1.8 Garrett Crochet (2020-2023) 1.7 Nick Madrigal (2020-2021) 1.7 Jake Burger (2021-2023) Eighteenth Round 1.2 Tanner Banks (2022-2023) Ninteenth Round 4.4 Aaron Bummer (2017-2022) 1.2 Adam Engel (2017-2022)

Will Madonna, Carmen and Kim Jong Un come to the ceremony?

If Getz builds a Go Fund Me to fund his one-two year buyout, I can see it happening. Problem is Jerry would only want to hire someone similar to replace him (first job, lowest pay among 30 managers), unless Tony wanted the job again. Wouldn’t matter as much as people who want Pedro gone believe. Bottom line is Grifol will do what Getz tells him to do. He will still say stupid s%*# to the media, because that’s all he has to say. I don’t pay attention to him at all, believe most players take a similar tact. Both options better the Keuchel and Lynn. Ditto Dane Dunning and Avery Weems.

Ironic that Jerry had the most popular team athlete in the history of sports and was ecstatic to get rid of him after limiting a fair contract to Jordan's final two seasons. Jordan earned $33M, or less than $3M a year, over his first twelve seasons. Still 50% more than Pippen for 11 year stint ($22.3M). Couldn't even afford to tip people. Jerry loved getting rid of Jordan, Pippen and Jackson. He sold out the UC for decades with garbage teams beyond the Thibodeau/Rose stretch. Had seven 13 to 23 win seasons, finished with over 50 wins once over the 25 seasons that followed.

There is no equivalency to the Kovalchuk deal, because it was a contract through age 44, similar to the Padres 14 year Aaron Judge, also offered through his Age 44 season, which likely would have been challenged by MLB if Aaron accepted it MLB. In both instances, these were not salary deferrals, but rather contracts nearly certain to run far past a player's playing term. Ohtani signed a 10 year contract to serve as DH, and when healthy enough also as a SP through his age 39 season. It's a long deal, but certainly not without precedent, including Pujols' (age 32 ten year) and Cabrera's (age 33 eight years) 1B/DH deals taking them into their age 41 and 40 seasons respectively. Close to 99% of players wouldn't accept similar terms because they don't get $40M (soon to be $70M-$80M) in endorsements to pay their living expenses. Trout is at $5M and second in MLB for player endorsements. Sure perhaps a dozen end of the line players (mid 30s to early 40s) earned nine figures and may not need day to day living expenses, but they are also not going to command a $700M contract or anything close at this stage. Bottom line, this is a $460M contract over ten years paid over time in 2024 dollars. Sure it's the largest, but it's only $33.5M more in total than Trout's 12 year $426.5M extension, and $100M more for an additional year than Judge received.

I’m a Liverpool fan since the 1980s, and I stopped watching or supporting them until last month after the Super League travesty spearheaded by John Henry after similar attempts trying to alter EPL / Pyramid structure. I pulled for Everton the year Rafa was there. MLB and the other closed North American league structures are pure rubbish. John Henry and the other American owners involved in EPL are pure unadulterated scum, and they need to be excised from the league and country now. They are even worse than what Bud and Jerry have done to MLB, despite unleashing their destruction over a much truncated timeframe. Its no coincidence the Red Sox became my most hated team over my historical despised teams Yankees (AL), Dodgers (NL), with the Twins my primary hated Central team.

The AAV is consistent with the current present value of his future deferred payments. This is the value MLB uses for their calculation. Calculated using the current market interest rates, his annual deferral payments are worth $44,081,476.50, plus the $2,000,000 in cash he receives each year = $46,081,476.50. The Dodgers are being charged a fair “tax”, if a luxury tax could ever be fair. People bitching are basically ignorant of math and or the process. See American average credit card balances for real life examples. Lottery winners take a similar present value cash payment vs. spreading payments over 20-30 years. $46M is significantly greater than what Ohtani would receive from a vulture finance company like JG Wentworth.

More on Teenage Pujols before the jump: https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-are-favorites-to-sign-top-international-prospect/

Was that your comment in the MLBTR Chat. https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-12-12-23-17211.html

40 years of indoctrination from the Chairman and his paid media minions is hard for many to overcome. https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/what-is-stockholm-syndrome

I like Getz is taking his time with these deals, learning the process, seeking counsel with the people he brought in to make wise decisions. There should be no rush to trade Cease unless they get a package Getz and Co. is happy with completing. To me it seemed as though Hahn rushed free agent signings at the start of the market, didn’t know much if anything about some of the prospects he received in trades, had no wise or cohesive plan regarding roster construction. Getz seems to have less money to work with, is stuck with previous mistakes, but is making moves with a stated purpose consistent with the plan he laid out. It’s been a long time coming with this team.

10 different MLB teams have won the World Series and 16 different teams (9 NL, 7 AL) reached the World Series since 2011. That’s a higher parity rate than your beloved NFL example or the other two leagues. Few of the remaining 14 teams have even tried to reach the WS despite having the resources to do so via enormous revenue sharing plus MLB TV and Internet 1/30 shares. The lowest valued MLB teams per Forbes in 1995 were $70M. In 2023, the lowest valued team is worth a billion, and the reason is each team is guaranteed $180M in revenue floor with a player salary floor of $30M. Any lack of parity is based on the warped incentive structure to penalize proper management of bottom market teams like the Cardinals, and reward owners like Pittsburgh’s Nutting and Oakland’s Fisher and several others for permanently tanking. Apparently none of the Top Three MSA / DSM Market six teams got the memo they were allowed to win more than 0 playoff games last year.

This is bullshit, all of it. San Francisco and Boston were always wealthy cities. Boston didn’t win dick since 1918. The Giants didn’t win duck since they played in Manhattan, even with Bonds. Both finally broke their winless World Series streaks because they finally installed smart front offices. Guys like Bruce Bochy who Reinsdorf, Tony and Hahn had zero interest in 2023. Guys like Theo and Sabean. Baseball collapsed over the past forty years not because of teams trying to win, but rather because too many teams are not trying to win. MLB ownership booted an at least marginally neutral Commissioner. Their mindset largely mirrors Jerry’s with the message Go f*** Yourself spoken loud and clear to every fan and player who has ever loved the sport. That’s how you go from 33% World Series market share to 3%. That’s how the Sox went from a 50/50 Chicago split to 67/33 split. Jerry calls Harry Caray scum. Petty GMs treat Carlton Fisk and Frank Thomas like scum. Boyer treated Jason Benetti like scum. f*** you Jose, we’re paying Benintendi. “We’re not going to be in any Ohtani race, I’ll tell you that.” What a masterclass in public relations.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/why-shohei-ohtanis-contract-structure-is-not-a-luxury-tax-dodge.html This link discusses the how the $46M AAV for the "luxury" tax is currently within the CBA perimeters, was inline with the projected $50M AAV contract value, with quotes from Passan and Heyman. There are few players in position to take such a deferral, and it's different then stretching out a contract into a players mid-40s or beyond to truly circumvent the tax. Previously owners have taken advantage of it, like the crack-head broke Wilpons who thought they were smarter than everyone else and deferred Bobby Bonilla's salary into 2035 because they put every penny into guaranteed 15% profits by Bernie Madoff. Karma.

I think the responses are due to inserting Bellinger talk into a random White Sox thread. If you created a non Diamond Lounge Cubs thread or Bellinger thread (perhaps one or both exist), nobody will have a problem with it.

This is my thought process, tying the fWAR projections to tangible reasons. I'm going most on the limb vs. Fangraphs for Yoan Moncada, whereas Fangraphs are conservative with the other players and are within reason, IMO, vs. improvement with no reasonable expectations. Catchers - I'm combining the two since this is basically a split season position. The 2023 Sox Catcher Slashline over 162 was .196 / .264 / .310 (league worst) with a middle of pack defensive rating (11.8 for 15th). The team projected combined 2024 catcher numbers are .214 / .283 / .355. Lee's projected .615 might be overly optimistic, but I do think they can cobble a .610-.630 OPS if Perez plays at least 30-40 games, which would be a strong improvement over their .574 OPS. I also think the staff will be better prepared with Max Stassi who has always been praised for his framing, and from Angels reports and recommendations from former Angels coaches and now White Sox coaches (Matt Wise Bullpen and catching coach Drew Butera), and the fact Grandal was notorious for minimal pitcher game prep, this will be an upgrade. He should also help mentoring the rookies and if he is promoted Queto, who if promoted should significantly upgrade their collective offensive production. Benintendi will continue to be a negative fielder, but there is slight projected improvement which I'm not sure will happen. The big improvement per Fangraphs will be increasing HRs from 5 to 12 and increasing BA from .262 to .270, both of which I believe have a decent chance of occurring. 2023 .262/.326/.356 -14.4 defense vs. 2024 projected .270/.339/.392 -7.2 defense. Moncada will be motivated. His back appeared healthy and he hit strong to close out the season ((First Half .649 OPS, .vs. Second Half .788 (September / October .904). I understand it's an if, but if he is healthy for most of the year, I expect him to shut up the haters here and on CSN and his OPS will be in the .790-.820 range. This is a significant improvement from his projected .732 on Fan Graphs, and this is the player I am personally going on the limb for vs. relying by and large on Fangraph's projections / regression to the mean. Quote this post and laugh your ass off if I'm wrong and Yoan ends up playing 120 + games and hitting in the.710-730 OPS range like last year. Vaughn enters his Age 26 season with a full year at 1B under his belt. Players typically peak in their mid to late 20s. He has been consistent with his OPS the past two years (.750 & .743), with Fangraphs projecting a reasonable improvement to .778, or about 30 points higher from his previous two seasons, with a four HR improvement (21 to 25). Like Abreu, he is one of the handful of players they can count on to remain in the lineup for just about the entire year. The slash line projections seem reasonable (2023 .258 / .314 / .429 vs, 2024 .262 / .324 / .454, the latter driven by 4 HR . 2 2B) so six extra base hits year over year. DeJong + Had a 0.3 fWAR, projected with a 0.4 fWAR. Anderson may finish higher in 2024, but even a 0.0 2024 fWAR at shortstop is a vast improvement based on the level of suck Tim delivered in 2023. Right Field Wildcard - Fangraphs have .708 OPS for Colas, and .736 for Sheets for 2024. I don't have confidence in either, would take an improvement for Colas. Perhaps he'll improve now that he is a father and is focused on banking some money before being run out of baseball for not listening to his manager and coaches. Frankly, I'd be fine if they sign some low cost guy who is a plus defender and can marginally hit (say .680-.720 OPS), yielding a 0 or marginally better fWAR player. Like Shortstop, that is a vast improvement over what they trotted out there both offensively and defensively. This is a very low bar Getz should be able to beat, with a bonus if Colas can be what some thought he could. DH also a wildcard - Could improve, could very likely regress Think a new staff might finally motivate Eloy from being a carefree goof to someone playing for potentially a quicker FA with $6M buyout than he anticipated a few years ago. I am not going out on the limb for him, would take a substantial improvement projected by fangraphs, but even if he isn't traded this offseason, I think you need to smoke a lot of weed to believe it's realistic to pencil in 141 games played in 2024. He may be gone, in which case they will either play big suck at DH (Sheets) or perhaps get some guy like Vogelbach for cheap to put up .730-.750 OPS in the same Sheets platoon role, though with much better results (Sheets .690 career OPS). Honestly, I'd say the same thing if someone said he'd play 120 last year, which he did, but his OPS took a major dump from his 2022 half season .858 rate (or even his rookie .828 rate over 122 Games) to .758. Part of that I'd accept is due to recovery from his surgery, but I also think a portion, perhaps a big portion, could be due to the fact he never hit well in a DH role (.811 overall over 436 games, .858 over 233 LF Games, .739 over 182 DH Games). Perhaps the full season at DH will help him accept it and improve in 2024. Bench - There is still time, so this is also a wild card depending on who they add or trade away. However, these are brief bullets on why I expect their bench to be improved at little financial cost. Play at full strength. Hahn's team regularly played with a 24-25 man team. Utilizing the IL will help provide the team better depth. Hopefully Getz will do so. Get flexible players. Last year the bench typically included multiple DH types (Sheets, Burger). Have one catcher and three players who can adequately cover all eight positions for a short term stint. I don't care if they hit .650. They aren't killing the team defensively in right, center or the infield, they aren't setting up their shortstop for a long term IL stint, and they aren't limited to who they can pinch hit for because they need to be pulled the next half of inning for an actual defender. A legitimate fielding RF will also improve the bench, because you're not pulling a starter in the 6th inning for defensive replacements in most close games. Lopez and Dejong give the depth to be decent bench options if you promote Montgomery or if one of their younger infielders becomes a starter.

Most teams broadcast a significant number to nearly a full season of games over the air free to all, and contracted with the strongest 50,000 watt stations to carry their games via radio across a large region. Teams in the NBA and NHL are starting to revert broadcasts from closed restricted cable system to over-the-air available to everyone in the community. The Mets and Phillies are among teams that have expanded their over-the-air broadcasts and have greatly benefited as well. They figured out that they can make more profits and create long term fan interest by making games available to everyone like the NFL does for nearly every broadcast and playoff game. The Cubs grow popularity throughout the Midwest and beyond with WGN. With the Marquee Network, they will continue to drive down interest in MLB, primarily among the children and young adults who have eschewed cable. Jerry will likely be 162 PPV or National Broadcast games. MLB went from 1/3rd of America tuning into the World Series to 1/30th because they shifted broadcasts to subscription pay TV that a majority of Americans have since cut the cable cord., up to 75% projected in 2025 with the vast majority who remain are senior citizens who don't draw advertisement revenue.

Having a community ownership arrangement like the Packers would be the preferred ownership structure, where profits benefit the team as a whole and the community. Just about every other team has the opposite scenario, with the MLB/NBA/NFL/NHL owners privatizing the profits and socializing their capital costs while communities have trouble upkeeping athletic facilities for the general public. European and other non-American leagues are far superior, as they are open leagues with promotion and relegation, and do not get taxpayer subsidized stadiums. There is a great community bond as a result.

Facts are stubborn things, Last World Series Championship (played over a full regular season) 2015 Kansas City Royals 2009 New York Yankees 2005 Chicago White Sox 1991 Minnesota Twins 1990 Cincinnati Reds 1988 Los Angeles Dodgers 1986 New York Mets The Dodgers were swept by Arizona to open their 2023 playoffs. They started Steak in an elimination game, lost the series 19 runs to 6. The Mets and Yankees didn't even qualify as a wild card. 2023 Playoff Teams $125.3M Milwaukee Brewers $119.3M Arizona Diamondbacks $105.4M Miami Marlins $79.4M Tampa Bay Rays $71.1M Baltimore Orioles 2023 Non Playoff Teams $343.6M New York Mets $278.7M New York Yankees $256.0M San Diego Padres $230.5M Los Angeles Angels $188.9M Chicago Cubs Total Payroll Source The Dodgers will be lucky to win 1 or 2 World Series over the next ten years, despite all the hand wringing.