South Side Hit Men

My post earlier in this tread (linked below) there is much more parity in MLB than even a few decades ago prior to revenue sharing. MLB Owner controlled media (and much of corporate media beyond MLB) bemoaned the Yankees, Dodgers and other teams spending my entire life, and the Padres and Mets lately. The Yankees won when they were smart and developed a homegrown core in the late nineties. Mid-sized market teams Boston and San Francisco won with moneyball / build a core / smart spending. The Cardinals are a bottom market city, but always ran a smart successful franchise. Bottom line, smart owners/management win consistently regardless of money, and poorly run teams do not. The smart thing to do would be for the owners to force revenue sharing recipients to actually spend on players and FO, and contract 4-6 teams to split revenue for a better product on the field. Instead, they continue to expand despite shrinking interest in the sport. Revenue Sharing Era World Series Titles (1995-2023) Twenty Nine Total World Series Ranked by United States / Canadian Metropolitan Statistical Areas + Toronto Ten Largest Market Teams (14 or 48%) #1/2 - New York (19.6M 2022 Estimate) Yankees Five Four of five earned via their homegrown core, plus one in 2009. Mets Zero They are in rebuild mode after three years of record spending and "ruining baseball". #3/4- Los Angeles (12.9M) Dodgers One - Won during COVID faux season. Last legitimate season WS win in 1988. Angels One - Via bogus wild card system. Sign stars, but can't build a core team. #5/6 - Chicago (9.3M) White Sox One - Won despite of Jerry's internal sabotage. Cubs One - Congratulations Ron, 1908 is just a memory. #7 - Arlington / Dallas / Fort Worth (7.9M) One - Finally, Cues Goodfellas scene #8 - Houston (7.4M) Two - Extreme tanking + 2017 Cheating #9 - Washington (6.3M) One - Via bogus wild card system. #10 - Philadelphia (6.2M) One - It's rarely sunny in Philadelphia. 2008 was the outlier. Middle Ten (12 or 41%) #11 - Atlanta (6.2M) Two - Gross on multiple levels. #12 - Toronto (6.2M) Zero 1994 + currency issues killed one Canadian team, hindered this one. #13 - Miami (6.1M) Two - Both Wild Card teams followed by tear-downs. Still haven't won NL East. #14 - Arizona (5.0M) One - America pulled for you against the Yankees, and you were rewarded. #15 - Boston (4.9M) Four - Moneyball + Fenway Park. #16/17 - San Francisco (4.6M) Giants Three - Moneyball Sabean + Bochy Athletics Zero - John Fisher is scum. Boycott The Gap #18 - Detroit (4.3M) Zero - They won two pennants, not sure if Pizza Pizza sons will ever compete. #19 - Seattle (4.0M) Zero - Cheap and stupid since Go!, wasted Griffey and Ichiro Goodwill. #20 - Minneapolis (5.0M) Zero - Can't win if you don't try. Need to build a solid core once again. Bottom Ten (3 or 10%) #21 - Tampa (3.4M) Zero - Still compete in the AL East due to FO. Owner + stadium locations = stupid. #22 - San Diego (3.3M) Zero - Finally got a good owner since the McDonalds people and he dies. #23 - Denver (3.0M) Zero - Cheaper and dumber than Jerry, these owners should be kicked out of MLB. #24 - Baltimore (2.8M) Zero - Ownership is bottom three scum. City becoming the same. #25 - Saint Louis (2.8M) Two - Bottom city size, but run with solid smarts and pride so fans come out. #26 - Pittsburgh (2.4M) Zero - Stadium great, fans care and come out. Last two owners atrocious. #27 - Cincinnati (2.3M) Zero - Small town with great fans and support, brutal ownership. #28 - Kansas City (2.2M) One - Fell from a top run team after Kauffman died. New stadium will help. #29 - Cleveland (2.2M) Zero - Team competitive post new stadium, but current ownership terrible. #30 - Milwaukee (1.6M) Zero - Selig developed the revenue sharing, pocketed the proceeds.

The luxury tax was not created for on-field parity. It was created because "small market" teams represent the majority of MLB owner votes. Dodger fans watching their last legitimate season VHS World Series tapes and wondering what the fuss is all about this alleged schematic advantage. Mets fans doing the same with their last World Series Championship VHS tapes.

Yes, I didn't get that granular in my explanation, but this will be a major savings if it applies to his deferred salary. I believe certain cities like Philadelphia also assess a local tax on top of any state taxes. Ohtani will save tens of millions paying the Jock Tax across many states vs. paying California on the entire $680M amount. All other states have lower or zero personal income taxes. States / Jurisdictions with no Jock Tax (6 current teams, 2 future teams): District of Columbia Washington Nationals (They have a local income tax for residents, but athletes who don't live there are not subject to it per Federal law). Florida Miami Marlins & Tampa Bay Rays Nevada Las Vegas A's Tennessee Nashville La Russas Texas Houston Astros & Texas Rangers Washington Seattle Mariners

Agreed, my comments were the correlation between what the Sox spends or doesn't spend and success on the field. They can return to top 5 payroll with a future World Series under Jerry. It's not probable, but Jerry has consistently increased future payrolls as a portion of increases in variable revenue (increased stadium and television revenue) following their division wins and WS championship. If the fans come, he will build it. If the fans don't, he will build s%*#.

Per Spotrac it's $46M per year luxury tax implications over each of the next ten years. Guessing it's $24M per year over the ten deferred years if the first part is accurate. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/shohei-ohtani-24661/ I'm interested in learning the implications to the Dodgers Federal and State taxes in terms of accelerated player depreciation of the $700M. They will likely save nine figures just on tax implications. In terms of individual taxes, I believe Ohtani is stuck paying both the United States (37%) and California (13.3%) over the ten years of deferred payments, even if he moves back permanently to Japan in the Fall of 2033. At least he doesn't have to file US taxes after 2043 since he retained his Japanese citizenship and isn't a US citizen. If the Las Vegas Athletics signed him, he would save $93.1M in state income taxes over the life of the contract, even more if California continues to increase their highest personal rate which I can see happening at some point.

2024 MLB Paychecks: $5,500,000.00 Leury Garcia (DFA'd March 2023) $2,000,000.00 Shohei Ohtani $1,193,248.20 Bobby Bonilla (Retired 2001)

Sportstrac has $680M of the $700M deferred. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/shohei-ohtani-24661/ So does CBS Sports: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/shohei-ohtani-contract-deferrals-drop-annual-salary-to-2-million-on-massive-700-million-dodgers-deal/ This is going to make the two dozen or so owners who don't give a s%*# about competing even more to b**** about with the "Luxury Tax" avoidance. I love it, love the fact that they stuck this up Jerry's booty hole. They will need to hook an IV to Jerry to rehydrate him from all the crying he will do over this. Jerry has to pay Yoan $3.9M more this season than the Dodgers have to pay Ohtani total over the next ten seasons.

Unexpected: Robert stayed healthy and enjoyed a great CF season. The drastic drop-off to negative fWAR players at SS and LF were unexpected. Expected: People should have expected a drop-off between MVP 1B Jose and Vaughn still learning and growing. C, RF and 2B were annual glaring holes beyond Grandal raking the Summer of 2021 should have been expected. Would say these three unexpected factors (Burgers amazing hot stretch, 3B Yoan sucking, DH Eloy healthy and sucking) were individually unexpected, but as a whole the net production by the three pretty much fell into expectations (14th overall ranked DH, 14th overall ranked 3B).

Not saying they signed game changing players, but I would wager heavily the Sox will finish above their 2023 29th rank for position player fWAR, beyond say an Oakland like salary purge or Robert, Yoan, Benintendi and Eloy for whatever they can get to make the other team eat all the money. Also think their bench players will be stronger to help their overall fWAR production. Chicago White Sox 2023 fWAR ranking by position: 10th Center Field 4.5 - Expect sight regression here, or major if Robert losses significant time. 14th Third Base 2.4 - Expect a wash with a Yoan bounce back offsetting the good Burger did here. 14th Designated Hitter 1.8 This could drop between injuries or trading Eloy. Busted by Burger last year. 24th Shortstop 0.7 - Don't expect much change here beyond a Montgomery promotion. 25th First Base 0.3 - Vaughn can improve to a 1.0 + player. 27th Second Base 0.2 - Improving to 1.0 would be a big upgrade between prospects and Lopez 28th Left Field -0.3 Expect a 1-1.5 season for Benintendi, but may be overoptimistic 30th Catcher -0.8 Expect a big upgrade in terms of defense, framing and game prep for the staff. 30th Right Field -3.8 Just getting a Mazara 0 fWAR type guy who can field the position would be a big upgrade.

People cry the Dodgers and Yankees ruin baseball. People cried the past few seasons that the Mets and Padres were also ruining baseball. Never Padres World Series Championships. Played first games before the first moon walk. 1986 Last time the Mets won a World Series. Ronald Reagan is POTUS. 1988 Last Dodgers World Series Championship played at Dodgers Stadium. Ronald Regan still POTUS. 2009 Last time the Yankees won a World Series. Shohei Ohtani (15) was starting sophomore year in high school.

It hasn't been the amount of money Jerry allocated, but by and large the stupidity of how it was spent. If Jerry would just keep (Hemond/Dombrowski) or hire one smart guy (AA, Theo, others), give them a reasonable budget and stayed out of the way, the Sox could have been a juggernaut "world class" organization over the past four decades and a team we would be proud to support. Himes is the only one who built a sustainable core, but he had to ice out Jerry to do so, and he didn't get a second contract as a result. I actually agree with Jerry on the premise nine figure contracts (especially pitchers) typically do not end well. Sustained multiple championship windows are driven by developing and retaining a solid core. This is true in every sport. All teams have this ability if they have the right strategy and front office / organization. Sure richer teams can spend to make up for some mistakes along the way, but no team can create a core team via Free Agency beyond the NBA. Jerry always prioritizes hiring/retaining cronies over competency in terms of team management. Howard Pizer is excellent as Jerry's finance guy, Jerry is not going to leave managing finances to chance. This is why the Sox (and Bears and Bulls) need a change at the top. Their revenue and spending is good enough to regularly compete, but their C-Suite hires are bottom barrel, and always will be under Jerry and Michael. This is why new ownership is needed, not what Tex laid out.

Players service time over the season is 172 per year. (172 X 43 = 7,396) (411 / 7369 = 5.55%) You would have to back out the lockout / strike days (1981, 1994, 1995, 2020) that let’s face it Jerry has been largely responsible for to get the exact count, but under 6% is the answer even accounting for subtracting these days. If I’m ambitious I’ll calculate the Sox total against the other 30 teams (29 + Montreal).

White Sox fans have enjoyed this scenario for a total of 411 days under Jerry Reinsdorf. 1983 (54 days) 8/2; 8/11-10/2 1993 (23 days) 8/1; 8/30-9/8; 9/22-10/3 2000 (110 days) 6/14-10/1 2005 (113 days) 4/25; 5/12-5/15; 5/17-5/26; 5/31; 6/10; 6/12-6/13; 6/15-9/14; 10/1-10/2 2008 (6 days) 6/8-6/13 2016 (9 days) 5/7-5/15 2021 (96 days) 6/13; 7/1-10/3

Players could still be dumped or added, but in terms of current roster: Position Players: 12/10/23 > 2023 Roster Rotation: March - July 2023 > 12/10/23 > Aug-Oct 2023 Bullpen: March - July 2023 > 12/10/23 = Aug-Oct 2023 Hard to tell until their payroll is known, but if they keep Cease to start the year and can pan out one or two starter projects and two to three reliever projects, they have a good shot at 70-75 wins. Two other positives is Getz isn’t doing stupid s%*#, he brought in substantial outside help to assess and develop talent, and they got rid more bad apples (Boston and Clevinger) and poorly performing players.

They are finally going to put him in a nursing home after the inevitable Cey, Buckner, Garvey scoop.

Fresh off of his World Series performance. $5M / 1 year, plus potential incentives up to $1M. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/royals-to-sign-will-smith.html

If they trade Eloy, I see them starting Sheets in DH vs. RH. Was concerned by Getz' comment last week that Sheets would be acceptable in RF, which was the biggest glaring defensive hole requiring fixing this offseason. Obviously he has to support someone on his current roster until a replacement comes in. I hope Colas turns it around next season, and can be called up in May or June and be at least an adequate starter as expected. I don't want to see Sheets for even an inning in RF unless there is some type of catastrophic emergency in which multiple players are injured during a game and he is the last option beyond catchers and pitchers. https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-getz-considering-keeping-gavin-052516526.html

Dude, chill. This is a snapshot in time, there are still over three months until OD. I merely presented the current fangraph projections. The point of the exercise is the fact the Sox dumped the three negative fWAR players this offseason, will likely have year over year improvements by at least a few of their returnees. Not even Getz at this point knows who will play RF, Eloy may be traded, etc. Also to counteract the narrative that the Sox will have worse hitting in 2024. Rather discuss current roster status and projections and actual player acquisitions then the endless trade rumor, media, foodie account rumors, and the 100th Garfein podcast saying the Sox need leaders, culture, Whit Merrifield and Sal Perez.

Last I checked, the MLB Players Union didn't helicopter over $5 Trillion into the economy the past four years. M2

Yep. The Sox are projected to have a better lineup this season, would say Robert the only player to expect a minor regression. fWAR 2023 Actual vs. 2024 Projected (Top 9 Actual / Projected Playing Time) +0,7 Catcher: -0.1 Yasmani Grandal 118 G vs. 0.6 Max Stassi 70 G +1.5 First Baseman: 0.3 Andrew Vaughn 152 G vs, 1.8 Andrew Vaughn 147 G -0.5 Second Baseman: 1.1 Elvis Andrus 112 G vs. 0.6 Nicky Lopez 83 G +1.0 Third Baseman: 1.2 Yoan Moncada 92 G vs. 2.2 Yoan Moncada 144 G +0.9 Shortstop: -0.5 Tim Anderson 123 G vs. 0.4 Paul DeJong 68 G +1.4 Leftfielder: 0.0 Andrew Benintendi 151 G vs. 1.4 Andrew Benintendi 139 G -1.6 Centerfielder: 5.0 Luis Robert Junior 145 G vs. 3.4 Luis Robert Junior 149 G +1.6 Rightfielder: -1.4 Gavin Sheets 118 G vs. 0.2 Oscar Colas 97 G +1.8 Designated Hitter: 0.4 Eloy Jimenez 120 G vs. 2.2 Eloy Jimenez 141 G Projected improvement: +6.8 fWAR (6.0 2023 vs. 12.8 2024)

I’m good with this plan. Slash payroll 2024-2025, bring in MLB caliber defenders. Hire quality FO personnel who can draft, acquire and develop quality MLB players. Start fielding competitive White Sox teams in 2026. If they can bring in 1-2 additional SP projects and convert one in addition to another those acquired for Bummer, and perhaps 1-2 acceptable relievers (Shaw type guys) with possible upside, the Sox could have a 73-78 win season and they will be a much more enjoyable team to watch than the previous two seasons. The House That Hahn Built 99-63 2021 81-81 2022 78-84 2016 76-86 2015 73-89 2014 72-89 2019 67-95 2017 63-99 2013 62-100 2018 61-101 2023

Hope the Sox aren’t sending international slot money in return. 2020-2023 fWAR 4.7 Yasmani Grandal $73.0M 3.6 Max Stassi $12.4M 2.7 James McCann $33.9M

Additional advertising revenue isolated to Ohtani’s impact will pay for the majority of his deal. Factor in the time value of money and payment deferrals, and the Dodgers may be getting Ohtani for close to free. This is what the Jerry Reinsdorf’s of the world will never understand, and why the Dodgers are a top team despite not winning a 61 game plus regular season World Series since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser wore Dodger Blue. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/shohei-ohtani-notes-advertising-revenue-40-man-roster-move.html Ohtani makes an additional $40M in endorsements annually. Trout is the next highest at $5M. Estimates are he will double the $25M the Angels earned on Ohtani related marketing revenue, not to mention vastly growing the untaxed value of the Dodgers franchise for years to come.

Seventeen of the thirty have expired. Largest MLB Free Agent Signings by Team: $700M Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (2024-2033) $400M New York Yankees Aaron Judge (2023-2031) $330M Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper (2019-2031) $325M Texas Rangers Corey Seager (2022-2031) $300M San Diego Padres Manny Machado (2019-2028) $245M Los Angeles Angels Anthony Rendon (2020-2026) $245M Washington Nationals Stephen Strasburg (2020-2026) $240M Seattle Mariners Robinson Cano (2014-2023) $217M Boston Red Sox David Price (2016-2022) $214M Detroit Tigers Prince Fielder (2014-2022) $207M Arizona Diamondbacks Zach Greinke (2016-2021) $200M Minnesota Twins Carlos Correa (2023-2028) $184M Chicago Cubs Jason Heyward (2016-2023) $182M Colorado Rockies Kris Bryant (2022-2028) $162M New York Mets Brandon Nimmo (2023-2030) $161M Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis (2016-2022) $130M San Francisco Giants Johnny Cueto (2016-2021) $125M Toronto Blue Jays George Springer (2021-2026) $120M Saint Louis Cardinals Matt Holliday (2010-2016) $106M Miami Marlins Jose Reyes (2012-2017) $100M Houston Astros Carlos Lee (2007-2012) $80M Milwaukee Brewers Lorenzo Cain (2018-2022) $75M Atlanta B. J. Upton (2013-2017) $75M Chicago White Sox Andrew Benintendi (2023-2027) $72M Kansas City Royals Alex Gordon (2016-2019) $64M Cincinnati Reds Nick Castellanos (2020-2023) $60M Cleveland Guardians Edwin Encarnacion (2017-2019) $40M Tampa Bay Rays Zach Eflin (2023-2025) $39M Pittsburgh Pirates Francisco Liriano (2015-2017) $30M Oakland Athletics Billy Butler (2015-2017)