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Rounding_Third

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Everything posted by Rounding_Third

  1. With Musgrove at $3.75m, Quintana would probably only be another $1-2m over that. Richards probably > $5m over and outside the "tight budget" approach. There are a few other FA's (previously posted) that have similar stats as Musgrove's that would probably get around the same salary. He'd be a nice addition but why give up prospects when you don't have to? Anyway, as much as I'd like to see them acquire another SP, right now it sounds like they're going with what that got at 4&5 and possibly do a trade before the deadline, if needed. If they get a SP before ST, it probably means something's changed with Cease or Kopech status. Not trying to predict anything, it just sounds like they're pretty confident with what they have.
  2. Pitt-based articles (editorials so take it for what its worth) are pretty much in unison that Pirates will hold out for a top prospect for Musgrove; maybe even as high as top 60 and that the Lynn-Dunning trade shifted market a little to the seller's advantage for pitching. Your trade deadline point makes a lot of sense, too, Pitt gets more value at that time vs the pennant team(s) in need; including Sox. But it sure looks like the Sox want to go within org for #4-5; Cease & Kopech most likely. They expect Kopech on opening day roster. As much as I'd like a FA starter, they have a good plan. In case of need they still can still make a deal before the deadline. With the 2020 revenue losses, the 2021 season still hanging on covid & vaccine, the CBA expiration, it gives them a few extra months to play it out. And there's a decent possibility that both Cease & Kopech could be very good.
  3. My point is that Teheran, Walker, & Anderson would cost roughly the same salary, have similar or better numbers, and not cost a top 100 prospect or more. Like I said before, Mushgrove was Pitt's 2020 OD starter. They'll overvalue him and be ok to keep him if they don't get what they want. They're in the driver's seat and no reason for the Sox to take that ride when there're plenty of good alternates. What's yours?
  4. Any 1 of: Julio Teheran (2020 stats after covid. Like Moncada, will he be fully recovered?) Taijuan Walker (nice 2020 bounce back from 2019 TJ surgery). Might be worth taking affordable 3-4 year AAV flyer on him. Quintana Chase Anderson (2020 stats after oblique) Garrett Richards Maybe 2 or 3 year deals for any 1; and/or options. Each has different AAV; with my limited market value research, possibly anywhere from ~ $3.5 for Walker up to ~ $10 for Richards. Does that sound reasonable? Good contract variety depending on Sox plans.
  5. Better options in FA as to not lose anyone, including Stiever. He was the Pirates opening day starter, they'll overvalue him. I do think we need to add a SP and let our system add the other.
  6. I gotta go with Paulie, too. Tough choice over MB. What does Hawk like to say? Don't tell me what you did but rather when you did it. #3. Santana "get pretty" 3run hr #2. Fenway orbit shot after Papi/Manny BTB #1 slam, ofc
  7. Age is relative, Suzuki has remained pretty healthy while Avila has had some issues. Suzuki's games played the last 5 years or so has come down but still way more than a backup catcher. Depends on how he feels about reducing them even more to, say, 50 games or so for a full season. Sound about right for a backup? All good stuff on Suzuki vs Avila comparison. Avila's D is still so very impressive and it dominates the fWar difference. His OBP is higher but OPS lower than Suzuki's. If the Sox got their LH every bat, this stat is less meaningless. Maybe my misperception but durability seems a significant factor to me. Ironically, one of Avila's worst seasons was with the Sox which probably adds to my slight bias. I obviously prefer Suzuki but would not be disappointed with Avila. He'd probably be a little more affordable, as well. Just to add, I don't consider Molina an option. He's too expensive. Anyway, I'd be surprised if he didn't take a discount and finish with StL. Collins is a whole other thing. He has such a small Sox sample size over 2 years, its hard to judge it. And his minor league stats are very good but they are minor league stats. Most importantly, if we sign another vet SP (& new closer) and now the rotation is suddenly very vet and we're all in, we must have a vet backup catcher. When that cost is so minimal, it would be an terrible omission. If we weren't "all in", different story with him. I hope they keep Collins around and he can figure it out and be prepared when he's called upon again. He's too valuable to quit on him.
  8. I may have misinterpreted but I'm not sure what the highlighted means. But no trades; an every day LH DH and/or LF FA veteran doesn't require a trade or loss of any current players. Yeah man, Walker is very intriguing for many reasons, not the least of which is he could be very affordable; low risk, high ceiling. If we got a quality 500+ plate appearance LH bat, whether we get a RHB vs LHB catcher does matter as much. That being said, Avila is still an excellent defensive player but can't hit worth a *&^%, particularly over the last 3 seasons. Suzuki's career batting (and recent years) is so much better, including against RHP. He's not nearly as good defensively as Avila so what would the Sox consider more important? It also seems logical to me that Grandal's days off would be predominantly against LHP. Don't know why but I get the feeling that 50 games would be Avilla's top end while Suzuki would breeze through them. So I like Suzuki better but wonder if he would be ready and willing to reduce his playing time. Feel so bad for Collins. Like all Sox fans, been pulling for him. Sucks that he's struggled.
  9. Abreu; what a clutch stud! Yeah, hopefully Robert can figure it out. Also that Moncada gets healthy again and has a comeback year (+75 pts). Poor guy, that covid knocked him for a loop all season. Him and a healthy Eaton is going to very welcome indeed. If he just has an average year, its >50 pts over Mazara. Just those 3 guys improving alone should help a lot. Throw in some decent LH DH/LF production and wow! Also, article out today that proposed Taijuan Walker could be an appealing Sox SP signing. He's kind of under the radar but only 28 and had an excellent bounce back year from TJ surgery. He's probably on the low end of the cost scale, too. Interesting for sure.
  10. I guess the wildcard here is what are the Sox still willing to spend to go "all in" in probably a season still (partially?) affected by covid. Of the 4 SP's you mentioned, Kluber seems way too risky, Richards & Paxton are a little pricier, middle of SP cost range, with Richards not reaching 100 innings in 5 years. Quintana is lower end cost, seems a real good fit, and might take a discount with the Sox. Paxton would be a nice signing too if the Sox are willing to go that high. On the other hand, the org strength is pitching so they have to weight that out. Can we trust #4 and/or #5 to Cease, Lopez, Kopech, and Stiever (others)? Perhaps if we had to. Same with pen, if we had to, could we? Perhaps. Successfully? I think for both there's a chance, be it small. However the biggest org weakness is LH hitting. The 2021 lineup only has 3 LH bats, 2 SH (+ Garcia) and Eaton. The org's others consist of Collins, Sheets, & Yermin. Not much there. Last year, even with the great RH dominated lineup, the Sox batted .254 and were 4 games under .500 against RHP and it may have cost us the division and maybe beyond. This MUST improve! If they decide to go lower end due to other signing(s), my 1st choice would be Daniel Murphy at <=$5. He's a well proven .280-.300 hitter (much better earlier) with decent .OPS. And I think he's still capable of a truly monster year in this lineup. Sorry but no way with Collins if "all in". His defense is not all that good either though small sample size. Its too important of a position, especially when they probably could get Kurt Suzuki for <=$3. Its hard for us GM's here not knowing the top end payroll plan for 2021 (& beyond).
  11. In order of importance: 1. Veteran LH DH (or LF so Eloy can DH - Brantley?) 2. Closer 3. 4th starter 4. Veteran backup catcher. Our LH bat depth is woeful! With all due respect to them, Vaughn, Collins, & Yermin should not be on the 2021 roster if Sox are truly "all in". Vaughn should spend the entire 2021 in AA and/or AAA as did Madrigal and Robert in 2019, no matter his success. Sox won't start his rookie FA clock with little to none org resume.
  12. Not a bad choice. My preference is Suzuki though; ridiculously experienced. Casali really hasn't caught that many games in his career. I agree with poppysox that Collins isn't the guy for 2021....and, imo, not ever until he figures out MLB pitching. His defense isn't all the special, either. If the Sox are "all in", I can't see them not getting a reliable, veteran backup. God forbid that anything should happen to Grandal. Having Collins as their every day catcher for any length of time defeats "all in" and they can't put themselves in that vulnerable position. They probably could sign Suzuki for <=$3, 1 yr + opt and then see where Zack is a year from now. To me, its a must for "all in".
  13. Yeah man! And from what I can tell for only $1.5-3m per.
  14. Guys, please don't get me wrong, I think Vaughn will be great in a year or two, just not getting too high yet. Not grading him an A or F, just an I. Hopefully, a year from now, he's ready for the show. Ofc he's going to get a chance to succeed, he just hasn't got much of a minor league resume YET. His college stats are great , for sure, but he still needs to prove they convert to MLB org baseball. For anyone hoping for him on the 2021 Sox roster, I don't think that's going to happen.
  15. I'm not ready to stamp Vaughn yet. .250 BA in A ball doesn't get me excited yet. Let's see how he does at Charlotte or Birmingham in 2021. Hopefully he excels! But I've seem too many "can't miss"'s miss. Hopefully, that core will improve on their production and sub .500 record against RHP. That being said, I'd still favor signing Brantley for 2 years with option or Murphy over Schwarber for 1 yr w/opt. Any other similar candidates that you know of?
  16. True enough about Kyle. But perhaps LH DH should be considered to be a main part. That position has eluded us since Thome and was our Achilles heel last year. I'd like to see a LH DH inserted before or after Eloy (5th or 6th). Not sure if they could do that with Kyle, maybe, but certainly with Brantley and even Murphy.
  17. Thank you sir! You as well! Looking forward to many fine and perhaps heated discussions amongst you all.
  18. Did you copy the right post? We're in the same choir.
  19. ...and all the great posts that followed. Add Kurt Suzuki. If Hendricks is the only big splash over Brantley, Richards would be an astute signing either way, but Schwarber gives me the heebee-jeebees. He brings to mind Dunn and LaRoche. He's kind of in that same mold; ~ .250 BA, high strikeouts, NL to AL. His quality OBS is due, in large part, to a high walk rate. That's fine but but I'd rather see an impressive DH OPS based more on BA than BB. An alternative could be Daniel Murphy if he's willing to lay down the leather for the most part. He could possibly make the NL->AL easier because he's such a good hitter. And he could be a 1B backup along with 2B or 3B in an extreme pinch. He doesn't have the same power #'s but his K's are ~half of Schwarber's and would put the ball in play a lot more. He might be 2-4 $M cheaper, as well, making a Suzuki signing easier.
  20. Okay so I went wee bit overboard with my gushing. But with all due respect, if you do the same research I did (stats/splits/interviews) you would understand why.
  21. Eloy and Brantley could continue LF/DH platooning. Let's see where Vaughn is a year from now. Hope he's a nice problem to have.
  22. He fits very well. He and Eloy can take turns in left as long as both bats are in the lineup most every day keeping both fresh and engaged. He's a leader, winner, clutch vet, professional, class act. He reminds me a lot of Bears' Allen Robinson. Vaughn needs another year in AA or AAA. Sox are going all in this year. I doubt they would then turn over their every day DH to a single A .250 hitter. Its not fair to the team and not fair to him. We desperately need a lefty bat anyway or be challenged by right handed pitching again.
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