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Little AFL Update: Jose Rodriguez went 2 for 5 to bring his OPS up to .681. Rodriguez is just 20 years old, making him the youngest on the Devil Dogs. Im definitely impressed with this showing. Yoelqui Cespedes went 1 for 4 and has on OPS of .580. He has 1 XBH (a double) in 30 ABs. His OPS has greatly benefited from his 3 HBPs as he has zero walks to 10ks. Not ideal. Yolbert Sanches didn't play today. He's 2 for 10 in AFL play Johan Dominguez started had an impressive line of : 3IP 2H 1ER 1BB 5 Ks. His ERA is still over 11 for the AFL, but this outing was a great sign. J.B Olson struck out the only batter he faced. Olson has a 4.5 ERA in 6IP so far this fallwith 5 K's to 1 BB. He's 26 years old, but missed one season to injury and obviously lost another to COVID. McKinley Moore didn't pitch but has a 5.40 ERA in 3.1 IP. He's a true reliever that finished the year in high A as a 22 year old. Caleb Freeman didn't pitch either. He has an AFL line of : 3.2 IP 3H 1ER 4BB 2SOs. Freeman had a nice finish to the year and recorded a 2.70 ERA in AA in 14 relief appearances.

FWIW the Cubs were 42-33 on June 24 and were in first place in the NLC. Kimbrel had a save in 20 of those games and had a 0.59 ERA.

This is assuming the QO with Rodon doesn't happen which would be another 18.5M or so, which puts the payroll at 184M. In the week or so after the World Series, the Sox will have made their decisions on Hernandez, Kimbrel, and Rodon. If they keep all 3 (and Rodon stays), that's 40.5M locked in to the 2022 budget. Then we'll likely wait for the CBA to resolve before anything else happens. The Sox would probably be very financially restrained until they moved Kimbrel (if that's even the plan) anyway. After the CBA, the plan may be to try and trade Kimbrel for prospects and use that money on a solid defensive backup catcher, a Tepera-esque reliever, and maybe a flier in right. Or it may be to trade Kimbrel for prospects and keep the payroll at around 165-170M. Since it's not our money, that would suck, but may be the most realistic plan

Damned if you do, damned if you dont. I think that Rodon would likely accept the QO if offered. Maybe someone is willing to offer him 3/60 this off season (assuming the Sox havent made a similar offer). That said, if Rodon replicates this seasons results next year, he goes into free agency as a 30 year old with around 800 career innings with no draft pick compensation attached to him. Not offering the QO would mean losing a 5.0 WAR pitcher for nothing. Going for Stroman, Ray, Scherzer, etc. would be much more expensive and long term proposition. I think there are serious questions about whether the Sox can depend on Kopech to make starts in 2022 and it seems exceedingly unlikely that Crochet will be a starter. Making the wrong call on Rodon's health would be pretty catastrophic. The Sox now have some expensive players on the books in Abreu (19.6M), Lynn (18.5M), Grandal (18.2M), Keuchel (18M), Moncada (13.8M), and Hendricks (13.3M) all over the 10M threshold. The Sox also have an $16M option on Kimbrel to decide on. If the Sox pick up Kimbrel's option that puts them at $136M for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal, Keuchel, Moncada, Hendricks, Kimbrel, and Rodon. Factoring in TA (9.5M), Gio (8M give or take), Eloy (6.5M), and Robert the Sox are now at $166M. Picking up Hernandez's option, and bringing back ReyLo and Engel puts you at around $178M. The Sox would essentially have to run it back with the same squad in 2022, but would go into 2023 with Keuchel, Abreu, Rodon, and Kimbrel's money off the books. In a vacuum, I think the Rodon QO and the Kimbrel option would both be favorable for the Sox; however, selecting both would be a bold use of limited financial space in 2022. All of that being said. if the Sox believe that Rodon will be healthy in 2022, then you have to extend the QO. You simply cant get that upside for 18M, while also keeping the 2023 budget flexible.

The Sox sent Johan Dominguez, Youlqui Cespedes, Caleb Freeman, McKinley Moore, JB Olson, Jose Rodriguez, and Yolbert Sanchez Rodriguez: 1/2 Sanchez: 1/2 Cespedes :1/4 2B RBI Dominguez: 2 IP 2H 1ER 1HR 1BB 3 SO WIN

Check the receipts. I called this

The lack of Manfred runners makes extra innings much better

The Sox are all over Garcia. This is just juicing the live betting line for me

Cease has given up 3 or less runs in 5 or more innings in 13 of his last 15 starts (including his last start in which he pitched 4 innings but was taken out after 69 pitches. I feel more confident in Dylan than anyone else in the rotation at this point. If the Sox can go Dylan for 5, Kopech for 2, and Hendricks for 2 I think the Astros will be struggling to score. Ideally, the Sox can get some big offense early to save Hendricks for game 4. If I were a betting man, I would bet on the Sox in game 3.

Liam is so fucking good. Need to get him the ball with a lead Sunday. Don’t care if it’s the 7th inning

All for a shit AB from Cesar

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Just horribly fucking managed inning all the way around

It’s almost like they know what’s coming

Liam for 2 today. Gotta claw for this

Time to get one more and ride the bullpen. Let’s go

Day off tomorrow and fresh one from yesterday. I’m fine with nibbling, just keep it close and treat it like a tie game or a lead

The Sox have great pitching and a deep lineup. The defense is an issue, but pretending like this team only made the playoffs because of being in the ALC is ignorant of every advanced metric

Kimbrel’s daughter has a heart defect and he really wanted to be able to be close to her/not have to switch doctors. I’m sure he took offers elsewhere. Probably Boston at the very least considering his daughter was born there, but I think hoyer really tried to make it work with the Sox before looking elsewhere

The Tepera trade was very solid. Horn is fine and may, possibly, eventually, become a contributor in the Cubs pen in 2023; however, he's a 35+ guy no matter how you slice it. The A's gave up Daniel Palencia who is a better prospect than Horn for Chafin who is objectively worse than Tep. Cesar obviously hasn't been great, but it would've been a bit short-sighted to just plug Leury in a second and take him out of the super-utility role. The idea of Cesar was that he'd be a league average bat (more pop than contact) with plus defense. Hasn't exactly worked out, but its hard to blame Hahn for that. Picking him up from the second place team in the division that you have a super series with at the end of the year was a nice boost. Looking back, Pilkerton was too steep of a price considering the results both have had, but their is no guarantee that Pilkerton's stuff will play at the bigs during the title window. Regardless, I dont think Pilkerton was netting more than Cesar so their isnt much opportunity cost worry here. Then obviously, the Kimbrel Trade. If the plan was for an eighth inning guy, there were cheaper ways to do this. If Kimbrel were a guy like 2016 Andrew Miller that would give you 2 innings of shutdown relief every other night then fine. If you wanted to put Kimbrel at closer and move Hendricks into that role, then I'm good with that. Sox talk legend Codi Heuer got absolutely shelled today. Even prior to today I dont think anyone here would rather put him out there in the 8th instead of Kimbrel. The biggest issue is the Madrigal part. The thought was that Cesar would provide similar value to Madrigal next year, while contributing to the title run this year. By 2023, Jose Rodriguez may be able to be the starting second basemen. To a tanking team like the Cubs, getting an MLB ready asset that wont impact the teams mission of putting a disgusting product out there day in and day out is a dream. The bigger concern is more the opportunity cost of what else Madrigal could've brought back. The right teams had to value a second-base-only guy with a torn hammy who relies on his hit tool. If the Marlins/Pirates/Rockies' scouts aren't impressed with Madrigal you can build a trade around him. Simple as that. Sure Bryant would've slotted in well, but there was no club option on Bryant and he would almost definitely leave after this year. I also really don't think that Hoyer and ownership would be willing to trade him to the South Side without a huge tax. On the emotional attachment scale, I think TA=Javy, Jose=Rizzo, and Bryant=Robert. Kimbrel is like Hendricks. Love the guy, but he's more of a mercenary than a guy you've been attached to for years. I root for the Sox, but that wouldve hurt me. There has been and will be debate on what Madrigal should've been cashed in for, but I think Hahn's process was sound here. The starters were dominant prior to the deadline and Lopez has been great as the #6 since. The lineup was producing and still had Robert, Grandal, and Eloy coming back. And the bullpen was very good, but there was a need for another reliable high-leverage guy so that Crochet and Kopech could avoid being over/misused. From the outside looking in, I think Hahn is a hell of a GM. Like Theo, he will have his warts when you look back at his tenure, but he brought back the Sox from purgatory by nailing the Sale, Quintana, and Eaton trades. If Hahn had a bigger budget, he may have given Zack Wheeler and offer so big that he told is in-laws to give him some space. Hahn obviously preferred Wheeler over Keuchel and that would've been a huge difference in this title window. If the Sox win the WS, the answer is A+. If not it's a C or worse. Pretty much no matter what he did during the deadline the answer would be the exact same. As for your question, I'd probably go B or C if I had to choose. I think he showed that he can be a somewhat unemotional buyer which is a good thing. I think some GMs would be more attached to their #4 overall pick and wouldn't sell him at an injury discount.

This is exactly what the doctor ordered. A laugher with BOMBS

Fair. I don’t get to watch many games live due to work, so it’s hard to tell whether he’s having bad luck or just looks off. Glad it seems to be the former

On a scale of 1-10 how concerned are we with Eloy Hes 10 for 55 with no homers in September.

To go a little further... Guys due for a raise in 2022: Abreu 2M, Anderson 2,25M, Moncada 7M, Eloy 3M, Robert 2.5M, Lynn 9.2M, Liam 2M, Bummer 500k, Gio (Arb 2), Lopez (Arb 2), Engel (Arb 2), Goodwin (Arb 3) The Sox save 1M on deferred Konerko money, 7.75M on Eaton, 1M on Herrera, and about 1.25M combined on Madrigal, Lamb, Burdi, and Gonzalez. So that's 28.5M in scheduled raises (not including arb) against 11M in dead money, leaving the Sox +17.5M in payroll. The most significant Arb raise will be Gio and conservatively the arb raises will push the Sox payroll up over 20M more than last year without any new additions. The Sox have Leury (3.5M), Hamilton 1.25M, Rodon 3M, Tepera (800K) entering UFA and Marshall (2M), Fry (860k), and Mike Wright (570k) as arb guys that likely wont be retained. That's around 12M in savings from this year, but includes a top SP, a high-end 7th inning guy, a quality 4th or 5th outfielder, and a solid utility guy. If the Sox stay in-house for the rotation and go Lynn, Giolito, Cease, Keuchel, Kopech/Lopez, the rotation wont cost another dime. It'll certainly be a step back, but would still be well above average. Then comes the team options. The Sox own team options on Kimbrel (16M) and Cesar (6M) who are essentially replacing pre-arb guys in Heuer and Madrigal from at least half of the 2021 payroll. If both were retained the team would look like this: C Grandal 1B Abreu 2B- Hernandez SS- Anderson 3B- Moncada LF- Eloy CF= Robert RF-Vaughn DH- Sheets The bench would be Burger, Engel, Goodwin, Collins, Romy and FA (probably Leury again) Pitching SP-1 Lynn SP-2 Giolito SP-3 Cease SP-4 Keuchel SP-5 Kopech Bullpen: Lopez, Bummer, Burr, Ruiz, Crochet, Kimbrel, Hendricks and probably a Tepera-esque 7th inning guy. Lets put the Tepera and Leury replacements as $5M and that's 153M before factoring in the ARB money for Gio, Lopez, Engel, and Goodwin. That will probably be around $12M in salary as a general guess, putting the Sox at 165M for the above team. This team would be objectively worse than the 2021 team and would have less depth. If the Sox are going to increase payroll from 141M to 181M then it makes sense to pick up both options. If the plan is to keep payroll at $165, then I think their is a serious question about whether the Sox should either decline the options or trade Kimbrel/Hernandez depending on the market. Going into 2022 with Romy/Leury at 2nd may be the better option. For the Sox to full capitalize on this window the payroll needs to go up. The core is getting more and more expensive every year and there aren't too many impact in house guys ready to contribute by 2022-23.

Crochet's innings and usage are interesting as well. In his first 19 appearances he went 2.0 IP or more 5 times including a season-high 3 IP and averaged 20 pitches per appearance. In the next 29 appearances, he went 2 IP only once and averaged 16 pitches per appearance. After the way last year ended, it makes sense to keep Crochet fresh for the playoffs. He wont likely be needed for multi-inning relief performances this year with the depth of the pen. That said, this year has really solidified that Crochet will at least start 2022 in the bullpen. If Kopech moves to the rotation and Kimbrel gets moved or has his option declined, I could see the Sox moving Crochet to a multi-inning high-leverage role next year. That would maybe open up 2023 as a year to at least consider letting Crochet start. Another big question in hindsight is whether implementing a six-man rotation around the ASB would've been the right move. The Sox main advantage over the other AL teams at this point is that they don't have anybody on their tails. As it is, the Sox are probably not getting HFA for the ALDS anyway, so whether they finished with 95 wins or 90 wins they'd be in the same spot come early October.