baseball_gal_aly

We've already beaten this to death. That's what I actually think is happening. No need to re-hash old arguments. We'll see what the return actually is. I hope you all are correct. I want the Sox to get the best package they can, and if the value isn't there then I don't think Cease gets traded this winter. Note: I think Cease starts OD with the Sox because I don't think the value is there.

Rays already have a new stadium deal

this guy nailed it.

I think Kopech is done as a starter.

I think they sign two of Manaea/Flaherty/Montas

Ahahahahaha

Of course they're going to get 5 or 6.

this is hyperbole

no lmao

Can we get a juicy baseball rumor?

I think that the Giolito deal was a drastic overpayment by a desperate club. I also think that they could get more for Cease in July than this winter.

I still don't think his 2021 was all that good other than the strikeouts. pitching fWAR overrates strikeouts. I think BP's DRA- is a better metric tbh. I also don't understand why everyone thinks that Cease is just going to get his velocity back and it's not going to continue to decline. Remember what happened with Giolito?

I honestly think they can get more for him at the TDL if he's having a good season than they can right now.

I don't necessarily think Cease sucks. I just don't think he's a TOR pitcher and if I were an opposing GM I wouldn't pay the price for him. I'd tell Getz, fine keep him then. He doesn't go deep enough into games for me and he walks too many batters and generally, outside of 2022, gives up too many runs. He's a fine mid-rotation guy. Returns should be expected as such. Think of what Giolito got as a rental and that's kinda what I'd expect for Cease. 1 back end T100 guy and a few interesting players that are of the Nastrini/Bush mold.

I think they could get a package like most of you are talking about if they had more years of control.

I think fWAR overrates him because he strikes out a lot of guys. Chris Archer is another guy that I think is a good comp for Cease. And the reason why he got so much in a trade was because he was on a sweetheart of a 4 year deal.

Going more than 5 innings and not walking everyone.

I think Cease's 2022 is such an outlier that it should be dismissed. I'd have to see him average over 96 mph again to believe that 2023 isn't what he is going forward. If the Sox were Baltimore and Baltimore were the Sox, I'd hard pass on acquiring him unless I wasn't giving up any T100 guys. I'm open to the idea that I'm wrong here, but if I were Baltimore someone like Hall would be the top piece in a deal from my perspective.

I just don't value what he brings. He's Rich Harden if Harden could stay healthy.

Yes we are. Cease has pitched in parts of 5 seasons Are we now pretending like 2019 and 2020 didn't happen because they weren't full seasons?

I hate that I agree with you so much. But then again, the Sox were able to get Quero for Giolito when I thought he was just going to be a salary dump.

Because he's not been close to that type of pitcher any other time in his career. It was fueled by an unsustainable strand rate.

Think of what Cease did outside of 2022 and that's probably closer to his value. What would you give up for his 2021 and 2023?

Could it be possible that Cease is viewed a lot less favorably by the other 29 clubs than he is on this board? Could be that teams are only willing to give up one back end T100 guy as the centerpiece and the rest of the deal will be lottery tickets. What I'm getting at is that Maybe Cease's value is closer to the deals that Bowden suggested for the Sox.